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dj876
29 Nov 11 22:49
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Date Joined: 01 Jul 10
| Topic/replies: 6,249 | Blogger: dj876's blog
It's obviously next to impossible to make money punting in bookies with overounds ranging from 107% to 160%(yest.).Imo it's very hard to make profit on here even with 100 % o/r(without first hand info) by just punting and laying .It's possible to make money arbing but u get your accounts closed quiclkly.In the last 10 years BF has turned the game on it's head with the biggest edge ever developed ie FAST PICS,so how come there is so little chat about it on irish forum??What tracks are renting out corporate rooms as exchange rooms??Who has been throwing out of a track with a laptop??Do the oncourse layers have the fast pic ir wrapped up??

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Replies: 165
By:
dj876
When: 29 Nov 11 22:51
Shoul say biggest ever "EDGE" developed
By:
Kelly
When: 29 Nov 11 23:06
Interesting questions .

Seldom on course myself now , so dont know the  current moves . In terms of the pictures which some use for punting in running , noticed last couple of weekends that there was about a 5 second ( plus possibly ) difference between the pictures on terrestrial television and those coming thorugh my Sky box .  5 seconds is a long time relatively speaking . And those on course have more up their sleeves than that .

Anyone punting in running without the obvious advantage is bonkers .
By:
irish_guy_13
When: 30 Nov 11 00:02
i agree.

would thing i do tho know , journalists  on course must have a big advantage.

just after racing one day at the curragh i noticed johnny ward making his way out through the crowd, head down, walking quickly and laptop under arm. the likes of him could make a killing and he probably does/has.
By:
Princesse D'Anjou
When: 30 Nov 11 09:52
"making it pay" as in making regular profit or making enough to live on?

My stakes aren't big enough for the latter but certainly managing the former.

I'm sure the journo's could make a killing but they could also be using the laptop for writing articles and the like.  I'd guess a lot depends on how fast the connection is in the press room, how busy it is, location etc.
By:
Distant View
When: 30 Nov 11 10:17
Johnny Ward was probably doing the reports from the track, was getting trainer quotes and then had a deadline to file a report or analysis.
By:
wildmanfromborneo
When: 30 Nov 11 10:34
There is a complaint in against a journalist who having been told a horse was a non runner by his trainer promptly got on his computer and laid it.
By:
grade 1
When: 30 Nov 11 11:00
I cant make it pay on here . Looking at it I seem to get sucked into backing too main big price yokes to win only . When backing with the same animals with books I will normally take the EW option. Takes a while longer to blow the bank that way.
By:
RoyalAcademy
When: 30 Nov 11 11:10
I only bet on the machine as I tend to follow outsiders at the silly prices offered to attract cash. As i've said before I find it best to have the opposite view of the market (plenty of risks in that but the prices reward)

I'm interested in how difficult it is to back early-price horses (usually best odds guaranteed the night before) for any kind of money say, 50 euro up. any opinions?
By:
paddywhacker1970
When: 30 Nov 11 11:32
Plenty of fellas can make it pay without any fancy tricks or inside info. Like any walk of life, hard work, patience and a bit of talent goes a long way.
By:
Kelly
When: 30 Nov 11 11:39
Royal , at the "big" fixtures you can generally get some decent money on overnight , depending on who are best price and on their view of your account . But dont think the comment applies at "normal " bread and butter racing ( where the overnight markets nowadays are paltry on here ).

Bookies have to make a profit to stay in business  , I have no quibble with that , but maybe there are fewer mugs about than there used to be when they outweighed the shrewd money . Technology has also made it easier for the books to weigh up the shrewd punters .  Hence the common restrictions . Plus TV exposure on every race virtually means it is harder to be a non trier than it used to be , so presumably any income derived from that procedure has also dried up somewhat .And dodgy accounts on the exchanges are easier to track than hearsay .

Tough enough being a bookie now compared with the past .

Same comment applies on here re profitability given that the bookies have upped their game in relation to exchange shrewdies . Diminishing market profitability all around . Near a general strike today up here , sign of the times .  No one is bullet proof these days .
By:
reb
When: 30 Nov 11 12:00
irish_guy_13 

i agree.

would thing i do tho know , journalists  on course must have a big advantage.

just after racing one day at the curragh i noticed johnny ward making his way out through the crowd, head down, walking quickly and laptop under arm. the likes of him could make a killing and he probably does/has.


Irish Guy, J Ward may or may not have been engaged in the activity that your fertile imagination suggests above but one thing is clear from your post - you'll never make a journalist.
By:
irish_guy_13
When: 30 Nov 11 12:50
that's a pity, i won't give up the day job so.

i quiet liked johnny ward's  piece in the sunday indo every week. and i'm sure it was very popular, very strange betfair would not keep sponsoring it when it was doing well. it should be brought back!
By:
reb
When: 30 Nov 11 14:29
Re the question posed by the opening poster, I would say that the vast majority of people who post on the Irish Forum are not "making it pay long term". More than 95% are in loss territory i.m.o.. Also, those who may be showing a financial profit could be carrying social losses. Remember, there can be non-monetary costs associated with betting.
By:
RoyalAcademy
When: 30 Nov 11 14:49
Very good point reb.

Gambling/betting seriously/professionally is a mammoth task to take on and imo is all-consuming. it can have dramatic and drastic effects on one's life where such "passions" are not easily understood by others.

I have developed a range of strategies over the years that are profitable yet, despite this, its devilishly difficult to finish in front due to all the everyday matters that impinge on daily life.

Two other things I have learned: firstly its that a group of friends I sometimes share my research with are more successful betting than me because they just run with the advice and rely on my judgement whereas I agonise endlessly and, secondly, I have tried over the years to find a partner or two to lessen the workload, pool resources and arrive at a concensus as this lessens the risk of not following your head and not being "professional"

Great game of wits tho'....................
By:
Blackwater
When: 30 Nov 11 15:16
That's a good point, reb. The game isn't just about money won and lost. Time and energy have to be factored in too.

As for playing IR at the track, there were, I believe, fortunes made by a few people in the early days. But the huge broadcast delays are more widely understood now, so the liquidity is gone. The current crop of trackside players are probably just betting amongst themselves.

Is anyone making it pay long term? Few, if any. The only hard numbers I've seen came from information that Betfair provided to Parliament in the UK about five years ago. According to that (from memory) 0.27% of customers cleared the equivalent of minimum wage over a twelve month period. And that was before the introduction of the Premium Charge, so the figure today could well be lower.

Obviously the forums tend to paint a slightly rosier picture, but you need to take most of the stuff posted here with a big pinch of salt.
By:
steeringjobnap
When: 30 Nov 11 15:41
BW,

Arb'ers will be trading with the books & laying back here.

Their BF p&l is therefore distorted by the LT strike-rate of winning lays; which in turn impacts the LT winners' percentage of 0.27 bps.

I do however, take your point that the overall winners on the site are a miniscule percentage of active membership.
By:
wildmanfromborneo
When: 30 Nov 11 16:28
Keep bets are grist to the mill of the professional in running player,they even changed the rules by making a keep bet immune to deductions in the case of a withdrawal.
How much do Betfair make by their own matching.
By:
Blackwater
When: 01 Dec 11 08:57
I agree with what you're saying, steering. For most us, Betfair is only part of the picture.
By:
Kelly
When: 01 Dec 11 14:16
Blackwater , remember something about those figures at the time .
As also pointed out , B/f and B/d are only part of the overall position .

Luckily premium charge does not affect me , I managed a largish loss before it came in , leaves me free of the Sword of Damocles for the foreseeable future . Particularly as my turnover is down to a fraction of what it used to be .

Used to be profitable enough on here to justify long hours "baby-sitting " your betting .  Doubt that still applies , I only tick over winning a few bob , and as I  would be watching the sport on TV most of the day anyway it does not affect my life much differently . But the formula would not apply to many I suspect .

On the golf I used to spend hours and hours looking at fields , nowadays I only bet in running ( overnight mostly to avoid the fast pic scalpers ) when I see what is happening .  Saves a lot of time , frees up the social life aspect . But a lot less profitable .
By:
Rocketfingers
When: 01 Dec 11 14:52
Pros sleep with their eyes wide open, you have to learn this way of sleeping. Just enjoyed a 20 minute powernap that will keep me going until the early hours of the morning. I'll get up and boil a egg have have some freshly squeezed OJ. I'll log on and take my daily positions worked out from the days before. I'll then check up with my contacts and when that is done it's near 9am and it's gym time where i met some of the Eastern Euopean ex army boys where we spot for each other, they're stronger than me but i'm much quicker, i'm 3 times as quick as them but they may only be a little stronger than me. It's a quick, shower a shake and back on the machine for the rest of the day instructing my contacts on what positions are profitable.
By:
Kelly
When: 01 Dec 11 20:17
Idyllic life , Rocket . Not up to the gym work myself  , prefer a nice New Zealand white as an alternative life style . Although too much of that tends to induce more power naps than are good for trading .
By:
wildmanfromborneo
When: 01 Dec 11 20:35
Rocketfingers why don`t you get the blonde you are taking to Sandown to boil the egg?
By:
neill d
When: 01 Dec 11 20:45
Would anyone find there is a stigma attached to being a professional gambler in modern day Ireland? What would a pro call what they do when they meet non racing/betting people when on a night out for example? Would a fella get a funny look?
By:
wildmanfromborneo
When: 01 Dec 11 20:48
No stigma just admiration,most of the professional gamblers in Ireland have other lines of work with one large exception Sidney Greenstreet.
By:
Rocketfingers
When: 01 Dec 11 20:50
I always say i'm a hairdresser
By:
wildmanfromborneo
When: 01 Dec 11 20:55
That figures.
By:
neill d
When: 01 Dec 11 21:01
Laugh, Not that i'm planning anyway, wouldn't be near good enough. Was reading some of anaglog's articles on the main forum and it seems that JP worked a 60 odd hour week before betting on a Saturday afternoon, different game now of course, but I suppose it shows that blaming lack of research time for poor punting isn't really an excuse, bet what you know well and that and make your advantage count when you've seen something. saw another thread saying he would have gone skint (freddie williams source) if dawn run had gotten turned over in the Gold Cup, just shows a fella needs a bit of luck as well because she was a loser everywhere else but............

In short, the way to gain to success is to contemplate carefully what you are betting for 12 hours a day on a JCB. It brings clarity, but it was the hurt of losing his bank over and over, having to work for three months to win it back that drove JP, going back to your father skint looking for your job back, concentrates the mind i'd say.

Huge tangent there i know lads.
By:
neill d
When: 01 Dec 11 21:03
earn not win sorry, big difference
By:
Rowley Mile
When: 01 Dec 11 21:04
Strangely, i think there is a definite stigma to being a professional gambler here.
Everybody that knows me knows i'm betting mad but are always quick to ask me what my max bet is.
I think most non-bettors consider size to be everything, often overheard in pubs in dublin, "this guys knows his stuff and he's all-in on this one".
Doesn't sound very professional to me, a guy that knows one horse is 'definitely' going to win.
Do they not realise how many horse races there are in a day and if he was that much of a pro, he'd probably have an opinion on most of them ?
By:
neill d
When: 01 Dec 11 21:13
I've heard similarly Rowley, I'd have a reputation amongst friends and family for being mad on it, though in truth I have moderated. I find it tough when pals (non racing fans) ask me to assess the first race we see when we walk into the betting shop, they think punters deal in complete absolutes and bet in every race, it doesn't work like that.

I find the staking question very rude as in truth it is a no win situation for the person anwsering, i ****ed off from the rest of them at the student race day in Limerick last summer, it is as if you're expected to prove your punting chops on every race.

also, people of my parents generation, early and mid fifties who aren't interested in racing are very suspicious of gambling types in my experience. I'm doing a day or two's work every week in an office and we all go for morning coffee together at 10 o'clock, bosses the whole lot (I'm usually making it) and when I anwsered what I spent my Saturday afternoons doing they looked at me like I was some kind of deviant and there was a silence. suspicion still exists of gambling types imo.
By:
wildmanfromborneo
When: 01 Dec 11 21:18
You need a good eye and you need to be able to get on.The professionals problem is never picking winners it is getting on,when Betfair started they combined the two then they all nearly moved exclusively to Betfair that all ended with the premium charge,some have gone to **** some have returned to the track.
The biggest layer on **** is a son of a Limerick man and their no questions asked policy suits him.
A new phenomenon on the racecourse is the behaviour of Ladbrokes,they are taking on the professionals.Under the leadership of Darragh Fitzpatrick they are acting in a most unladbroke like fashion.They are brash and loud whereas Ladbrokes in England are grey and reserved,they go top price whereas their English counterparts go lowest,they seem to bet everyone whereas the others only bet mug clients.
By:
Rowley Mile
When: 01 Dec 11 21:20
Well, that's the same reason i wouldn;t answer the question about the max bet because most people that ask wouldn;t understand bar close friends.
Anyway to put things into context, i've read about 5 books recently that are all complete tosh and the only one point that stands out from them is betting as %age of your bank, keep your bank completely seperate to what money you need to live i.e; don;t have a cut at something because your washing machine has just packed in. My max bet is 1/10th of what it was a year ago and progress has gained momentum.
By:
Wallflower
When: 01 Dec 11 21:20
Sports Market Analyst/Trader/Arbitrageur - whatever feels bestPlain? However, I've never told anybody what I've actually being doing - "working from home on a contract basis for a UK company".


I'm "pro" here, in thats its my only source of "earned income" since July 2010, I have some other bits and pieces. Its a job - I "work" about 60 hours a week, cricket, tennis, american football my primary markets. A labour of love so it doesn't feel like its that much - cut out commuting its much like a normal job in terms of time. Interesting experiment, I can make it pay but can't make a living on its own, going back to work in January, and will operate part-time again. Learned a lot, think I could do it, and might try it again, but I like to have plenty of funds behind me so that I'm not under financial pressure to make x amount, daily/weekly target-setting should be avoided. Can be doneHappy - but there are social implications (mind you, benefits as well).
By:
neill d
When: 01 Dec 11 21:22
Delighted to hear that Wildman, there is a thriving punting scene in Limerick city and North Cork, I know because I've spent my whole life in both.
By:
Rowley Mile
When: 01 Dec 11 21:24
Wildman, i;ve always found the ladbrokes guys oncourse in england go with the flow and their prices in no way reflect the ones that the company 'duck' in the morning market.
By:
neill d
When: 01 Dec 11 21:25
Excellent posts Wallflower and Rowley cheers.
By:
wildmanfromborneo
When: 01 Dec 11 21:27
If you are ever applying for a job never put as an interest horse racing,people think gambler and then go to think potential embezzler,same applies with these facebook pages anything you write on these can return to bite.
By:
neill d
When: 01 Dec 11 21:28
I'm going to take that on board wildman.
By:
Rowley Mile
When: 01 Dec 11 21:29
Saw you write something here recently wallflower. Last time you engaged the forum on this topic, things sounded like they were going better ?
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