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24 Nov 11
17:15
Joined:
Date Joined:
07 Jun 11
Wicklow Lad @ 16/1 (e/w)
Seems to meet an awful lot of the stats for the race. 7 and 8 year olds have the best recent record (he's 7), Only 1 horse has won carrying more than 10-10 in the last decade (he's got 10-2), all recent winner have won over 2m 6f+ (he has), most recent winners have winning form at Navan (he does), finished in the first 5 last outing (he did) and to have ran in the last 30 days (he has).
Added to meeting a lot of the stats he looks a progressive chaser and it looks as though they have protected his mark with this in mind since he beat Ad Idem over course and distance last March. He ran a fine race last time over hurdles at Fairyhouse when 2nd to Harolds Cross over 2m 4f and the step back up in trip here should suit.
Hoping for a big run Sunday.
What's your fancy for the race?
Seems to meet an awful lot of the stats for the race. 7 and 8 year olds have the best recent record (he's 7), Only 1 horse has won carrying more than 10-10 in the last decade (he's got 10-2), all recent winner have won over 2m 6f+ (he has), most recent winners have winning form at Navan (he does), finished in the first 5 last outing (he did) and to have ran in the last 30 days (he has).
Added to meeting a lot of the stats he looks a progressive chaser and it looks as though they have protected his mark with this in mind since he beat Ad Idem over course and distance last March. He ran a fine race last time over hurdles at Fairyhouse when 2nd to Harolds Cross over 2m 4f and the step back up in trip here should suit.
Hoping for a big run Sunday.
What's your fancy for the race?
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Probably Linnel carrying 9-6, goes well on soft. 16/1
Groody Hill (10) , Some Target (10) , Prince De Beauchene (12) , Quiscover Fontaine (12) , Alpha Ridge (14) , Leggy Lad (14) , Rivage DOr (14) , Stonemaster (14) , Tharawaat (16) , Wicklow Lad (16) , Ad Idem (20) , Askmeroe (20) , Jack The Bus (20) , Linnel (20) , Quadrillon (20) , Cross Appeal (25) , Elysian Rock (25) , Golden Kite (25) , Hughies Grey (25) , Kakagh (25) - Others 25 or more
Think tharawwat has a chance at 16s likes navan and will love the heavy ground. That is goin to be some novice hurdle if they all stand they're ground.
Will have a few €€€ on Leggy Lad too @ 14s who i thought was impressive at Down Royal last time and can hopefully uphold that form with Linnel.
Some Target is another that would be of interest but due to the fact only Notre Pere has carried more than 10-10 in recent years (and he went on to win the Welsh National and Punchestown Gold Cup) so i will leave him alone.
Yeah the Monksfield looks a fantastic race if they all stay in.
Some Target is another that would be of interest but due to the fact only Notre Pere has carried more than 10-10 in recent years (and he went on to win the Welsh National and Punchestown Gold Cup) so i will leave him alone.
Yeah the Monksfield looks a fantastic race if they all stay in.
Alpha Ridge will love every drop of the rain that is falling today. Ran a great seasonal debut at Galway where he ran into a beauty of Fenton's Last Instalment who franked the form in a Grade 2 at Punchestown on Sunday.
Surely a good jockey will become available as Walsh will have to ride one of Willie's.
Surely a good jockey will become available as Walsh will have to ride one of Willie's.
ain't seen you on the Troytown thread on A/P forum. Let us know which of the 2 you've backed so i can lay off please 
Must be followin me on twatter
Put it up on another forum yest - WL and i see hugh put up me Hennessy fancy
Put it up on another forum yest - WL and i see hugh put up me Hennessy fancy
i'll have to get a twatter account some day. At least i won't be the only 1 not happy come Sunday if those horses run poor.
Wat dog are they questionin was switched in spk the other night?? It win?
No, the inquiry is into whether Airforce Newyork ran in the 11th in place of Airforce Impact as far as i know. I persume their must of been some mix up at wiegh in and the dogs where kennelled wrong as one was meant to run in the 11th and the other the 12th and they are both black dogs around 70lbs. Jim the control steward has been suspended while the inquiry is being held into it, it wasn't anything untoward just a mistake that shouldn't of happened but did, that's if it is proven to have happened.
Ah shur tis a lot a fuss about nothin so - thought there mite have been a touch landed or somethin! Shur if twas obviously an honest mistake let em move on!
An honest mistake .....I wonder .....in my days you check your dog in for weigh-in and his ear mark is read ....at race time you bring your dog from kennel to weighroom and get him sheeted up and then all runners are chekked again before parade....so is that 2 honest mistakes....a visit to specsavers for someone i'd say......
I refrained from posting anything about it until now for this reason and i wish i hadn't of posted it, of course it was just a mistake, what did they have to gain from it?? Airforce Impact had very little chance in his respective race and the same comment applied to Airforce Newyork, i don't have my card from last week handy but i had both of them big prices. If what is said is true i persume the earmark was not checked on the dog for the 11th and the mistake realised before the 12th hence the withdrawal, nothing sinister.
Anyway back to the race, what is the maximum field for the race?
Looking at the running of that 11th race, it did not look like the running style of NewYork.
Hopefully it will all be resolved.
Hopefully it will all be resolved.
Hats and Heels my nap in the mares bumper in spite of my fear of backing PW......won really well last time.....next Quevega ? No ! but was impressive in Cork all the same
JAY,
As a reminder.......see soapp's post below and remember For Bill's win in this race 2 years ago !
(don't rule out Missunited)
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soapp 23 Nov 09 17:23
Unbelievable crowd there despite the weather. Couldn't move in the restaurant or bars that easy.
32 bookies, not a great number. John Stuart was a surprising absentee.
Weather was ok. Heavy showers didn't last long at all until after racing when there was a torrential shower.
Race 1) Didn't get to see it or hear it. But a nice one for the books getting the Christy Roche hotpot Sword Fish turned over by a rag from the Mick Halford stable Shanrod.
Race 2) My nap of the day Judge Roy Bean (2/5) well and truly chinned by by the Hurl (over 200k as a 3 yr old). Eddie O'Grady said it was the ground that beat it.
Race 3) Another rag Bostons Angel (A Robbie Power double) came out of the pack to chin Cadspeed who I thought was the value at 7/4. Th Carberry ridden jolly Perfect Smile (6/4) had the race won when he stumbled at the 2nd last.
Race 4) Morning Steamer Thirsty Tommy (50/1 to 12/1) was the first tip I got going in. Took 33/1 on the X's. Owned by a syndicate from Swords ran a great race to finish 3rd. A mistake a the 3rd last didn't help. Market leader Bobs Display 9/2 in the morning 3/1 on track with young Kearney was well taken into 5/2 never showed. Danny's Vic well mentioned by Alan Sweetman who said his proven stamina over 3 miles woud come in handy which it sure did.
Race 5) A very open Troytown Chase proved very eventful with plenty of casualties. The bookies who were cleaning up were very stingy with their odds. The X'S were going well over a point longer on the fancied ones. Beroni (9/1 into 7/1) snuck in under the radar. Most having been put off as Ruby Walsh chose the other Mullins horse.
Race 6) The whisper of the day Sports Line (6/4 into 5/6) made all. He frightened the life out of me at the 3rd last with a bad mistake. I did well to get 11/10 as all odds dried up so quick.
Race 7) Unbeaten For Bill (steady 3/1) turned in an impressive performance to hit the layers again although Willie Mullins Killultagh Queen (steady 6/4) got them a few pounds back. This one never threatened. A a jolly punter I had to back For Bill in the without market. The layers went (1/1) but for the first time ever I had a bet on the X's in the without fav market. 6/4 freely available to small money.
Well done to all at Navan for getting through a trying day. Also hats off for not robbing their customers with only 15 admission. I got lucky as an owner asked me was I paying in and I said yes. He was heading in with the missus. I think Owners can get four in when they have a runner.
Finally I would recommend all to buy The Injured Jockeys Calendar. Some of the jockeys were out selling it after racing.
And of course everyone got free indos as is standard after Sunday racing. So the lads in my local were singing as I brought a half a dozen back for them!!
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As a reminder.......see soapp's post below and remember For Bill's win in this race 2 years ago !
(don't rule out Missunited)
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soapp 23 Nov 09 17:23
Unbelievable crowd there despite the weather. Couldn't move in the restaurant or bars that easy.
32 bookies, not a great number. John Stuart was a surprising absentee.
Weather was ok. Heavy showers didn't last long at all until after racing when there was a torrential shower.
Race 1) Didn't get to see it or hear it. But a nice one for the books getting the Christy Roche hotpot Sword Fish turned over by a rag from the Mick Halford stable Shanrod.
Race 2) My nap of the day Judge Roy Bean (2/5) well and truly chinned by by the Hurl (over 200k as a 3 yr old). Eddie O'Grady said it was the ground that beat it.
Race 3) Another rag Bostons Angel (A Robbie Power double) came out of the pack to chin Cadspeed who I thought was the value at 7/4. Th Carberry ridden jolly Perfect Smile (6/4) had the race won when he stumbled at the 2nd last.
Race 4) Morning Steamer Thirsty Tommy (50/1 to 12/1) was the first tip I got going in. Took 33/1 on the X's. Owned by a syndicate from Swords ran a great race to finish 3rd. A mistake a the 3rd last didn't help. Market leader Bobs Display 9/2 in the morning 3/1 on track with young Kearney was well taken into 5/2 never showed. Danny's Vic well mentioned by Alan Sweetman who said his proven stamina over 3 miles woud come in handy which it sure did.
Race 5) A very open Troytown Chase proved very eventful with plenty of casualties. The bookies who were cleaning up were very stingy with their odds. The X'S were going well over a point longer on the fancied ones. Beroni (9/1 into 7/1) snuck in under the radar. Most having been put off as Ruby Walsh chose the other Mullins horse.
Race 6) The whisper of the day Sports Line (6/4 into 5/6) made all. He frightened the life out of me at the 3rd last with a bad mistake. I did well to get 11/10 as all odds dried up so quick.
Race 7) Unbeaten For Bill (steady 3/1) turned in an impressive performance to hit the layers again although Willie Mullins Killultagh Queen (steady 6/4) got them a few pounds back. This one never threatened. A a jolly punter I had to back For Bill in the without market. The layers went (1/1) but for the first time ever I had a bet on the X's in the without fav market. 6/4 freely available to small money.
Well done to all at Navan for getting through a trying day. Also hats off for not robbing their customers with only 15 admission. I got lucky as an owner asked me was I paying in and I said yes. He was heading in with the missus. I think Owners can get four in when they have a runner.
Finally I would recommend all to buy The Injured Jockeys Calendar. Some of the jockeys were out selling it after racing.
And of course everyone got free indos as is standard after Sunday racing. So the lads in my local were singing as I brought a half a dozen back for them!!
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Thanks to Tony's archives........
Troytown Handicap Chase - Navan, November 21st
• This is one of the strongest trends races on the national hunt calendar and should be approached in the same manner as the other top staying chases: concentrate on young chasers on the up.
• With the exception of subsequent Grade 1 winner Notre Pere who won this with 11-7 yet was still obviously well-treated off 138, this has been a race for the light-weights. Three miles in winter ground at Navan takes plenty of getting and 10 of the last 11 winners carried 10-9 or less before their jockey's claims were considered. By the same token, only 3 placed horses since 1999 have carried more than 11-0.
• No horse older than nine has won this race since 1992 which is as far as my records go back so concentrate on younger animals, particularly those aged six and seven. From 37% of the runners in the last 10 renewals they have had 6 winners and 6 runners-up.
• Putting Paul Townend up on Beroni ahead of Ruby Walsh last year amounted to little more than a stroke but the Willie Mullins punters certainly backed the real first string and sent the winner off just behind the three co-favourites at 7/1. That was in keeping with the market's good record in the race: just 1 of the last 11 winners was sent off a double-figure price.
• Horses with a recent run do best which could count against some of those returning directly from their summer break on Sunday. 7 of the last 8 winners had run in the previous month while the exception was last seen in the Kerry National.
• Give preference to lightly-raced handicappers. Cloudy Bays won this after 9 handicap chase runs but he started from a very low base but none of the other winners since 1999 had more than 6 runs in handicaps. Only 4 recent winners had already won a handicap chase before this, none winning more than once.
• As with races like the Paddy Power and Thyestes, second-season chasers are the way to go. Of the last 11 winners, 9 were just out of their novice season while the 2 exceptions were lightly-raced third season chasers.
• Proven stamina over 3 miles isn't an absolute must and wasn't last year with Beroni but look for your fancy to have won over at least an extended two and a half miles; all the last 10 winners had won over at least twenty-two furlongs.
Troytown Handicap Chase - Navan, November 21st
• This is one of the strongest trends races on the national hunt calendar and should be approached in the same manner as the other top staying chases: concentrate on young chasers on the up.
• With the exception of subsequent Grade 1 winner Notre Pere who won this with 11-7 yet was still obviously well-treated off 138, this has been a race for the light-weights. Three miles in winter ground at Navan takes plenty of getting and 10 of the last 11 winners carried 10-9 or less before their jockey's claims were considered. By the same token, only 3 placed horses since 1999 have carried more than 11-0.
• No horse older than nine has won this race since 1992 which is as far as my records go back so concentrate on younger animals, particularly those aged six and seven. From 37% of the runners in the last 10 renewals they have had 6 winners and 6 runners-up.
• Putting Paul Townend up on Beroni ahead of Ruby Walsh last year amounted to little more than a stroke but the Willie Mullins punters certainly backed the real first string and sent the winner off just behind the three co-favourites at 7/1. That was in keeping with the market's good record in the race: just 1 of the last 11 winners was sent off a double-figure price.
• Horses with a recent run do best which could count against some of those returning directly from their summer break on Sunday. 7 of the last 8 winners had run in the previous month while the exception was last seen in the Kerry National.
• Give preference to lightly-raced handicappers. Cloudy Bays won this after 9 handicap chase runs but he started from a very low base but none of the other winners since 1999 had more than 6 runs in handicaps. Only 4 recent winners had already won a handicap chase before this, none winning more than once.
• As with races like the Paddy Power and Thyestes, second-season chasers are the way to go. Of the last 11 winners, 9 were just out of their novice season while the 2 exceptions were lightly-raced third season chasers.
• Proven stamina over 3 miles isn't an absolute must and wasn't last year with Beroni but look for your fancy to have won over at least an extended two and a half miles; all the last 10 winners had won over at least twenty-two furlongs.
I think Ainama could be massively over priced in this.He is a totally unexposed chaser who was rated 16lbs higher over hurdles at one time.He has won over the trip and will have no problem with the ground and he is at the right end of the handicap.
A nice "double U double" for me
Wayward Prince and Wicklow Lad - e/w double
Wayward Prince and Wicklow Lad - e/w double
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