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Heineken Cup kicks off this weekend with Connacht making their debut Friday night away to Harlequins . I fear for them here as Harlequins are a far superior side that are flying in the English Premiership . Harlequins are available at -15 in the handicap and i expect them to cover this .....
I also think Munster will struggle again this year to get out of the group . They are 11/10 in places to win the group and imo this is a crazy price . So much so that i think 8/11 that they will fail to qualify for the quaters is a great price .
Regardless of anyones opinion this Saturdays opening game is a must win one for them as they face the trip to Castres the following week where it could be" game over ball burst" if they lose their first two ( CAstres have won 7/10 in French league and are huge aswell ) .
A reliable sourse tells me that Tony McGahan has made a few strange calls up front for saturday dropping both Donnacha O Callaghan and Dennis Leamy picking a starting pack of Botha, Varley, Du Pwiezz, O Connell, Ryan , O Mahoney , Ronan and Coughlan ....... Take Paul O connell out of that and i don t think it would worry too many teams ......The backs haven t looked too threatning so I think Northampton are good value at 2/1 to overturn them ...... But the home advantage is massive in the competition so will be backing Northampton +5 aswell ....
I also think Munster will struggle again this year to get out of the group . They are 11/10 in places to win the group and imo this is a crazy price . So much so that i think 8/11 that they will fail to qualify for the quaters is a great price .
Regardless of anyones opinion this Saturdays opening game is a must win one for them as they face the trip to Castres the following week where it could be" game over ball burst" if they lose their first two ( CAstres have won 7/10 in French league and are huge aswell ) .
A reliable sourse tells me that Tony McGahan has made a few strange calls up front for saturday dropping both Donnacha O Callaghan and Dennis Leamy picking a starting pack of Botha, Varley, Du Pwiezz, O Connell, Ryan , O Mahoney , Ronan and Coughlan ....... Take Paul O connell out of that and i don t think it would worry too many teams ......The backs haven t looked too threatning so I think Northampton are good value at 2/1 to overturn them ...... But the home advantage is massive in the competition so will be backing Northampton +5 aswell ....
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Will wait for teams for this weekends games - Clermont are a monster price if they dont pick a 2nd string and would be a max bet for me at 5/6 so will wait to see wat they do
On the outright front i think Munster will struggle massively to come out of the group again, granted its not the strongest groups (Castres have found some form again this season though and are playing well, currently 3rd in the T14) and is prob between them and Northampton but id be very surprised if Northampton didnt top it, they are just running into some good form now with the WC players back into full flow
Unfortunately i cant even find a decent trade in the OR - the comp to me looks a dead match between Leinster and Toulouse, nothing original there
Northampton at 11/1 the only thing that is sightly tempting me at the moment
On the outright front i think Munster will struggle massively to come out of the group again, granted its not the strongest groups (Castres have found some form again this season though and are playing well, currently 3rd in the T14) and is prob between them and Northampton but id be very surprised if Northampton didnt top it, they are just running into some good form now with the WC players back into full flow
Unfortunately i cant even find a decent trade in the OR - the comp to me looks a dead match between Leinster and Toulouse, nothing original there
Northampton at 11/1 the only thing that is sightly tempting me at the moment
Northampton will shorten when teams are announced BJG .....
Munster just quite simply are nt good enough anymore unfortunately 
Jones and Wallace are massive losses through injury
Starting with the forwards - 1-5 i wont complain, all solid enough and do their job
But this must be the worst 6/7/8 combo in Munster history - Ryan the penaly machine - Ronan the penalty Machine and - Leamy the penalty machine
Actually would nt mind to see Coughlan and O Mahoney starting - O Mahoney has the potential to be a cracking player
9-10 - Murray is strong and good on the ball - ROG crackin place kicker, was never the best with ball in hand spreading it wide but seems to be even more terrible every time i have seen him lately, place kicking all thats keeping him in the team
11 - Earls a massive loss thru injury, dunno wat way they'll play! Mafi at 11?!
12-13 Chambers? Meh, looks ok but not overly impressed - Barnes not good enough at the moment - Mafi, wen he's good he's very good and when he's bad he's very bad!
14 - Howlett, legs aint as quick as they uesta be but stl does a job
15- Murphy - solid player but he's no Jones
Overall - not confident
Jones and Wallace are massive losses through injury
Starting with the forwards - 1-5 i wont complain, all solid enough and do their job
But this must be the worst 6/7/8 combo in Munster history - Ryan the penaly machine - Ronan the penalty Machine and - Leamy the penalty machine
Actually would nt mind to see Coughlan and O Mahoney starting - O Mahoney has the potential to be a cracking player
9-10 - Murray is strong and good on the ball - ROG crackin place kicker, was never the best with ball in hand spreading it wide but seems to be even more terrible every time i have seen him lately, place kicking all thats keeping him in the team
11 - Earls a massive loss thru injury, dunno wat way they'll play! Mafi at 11?!
12-13 Chambers? Meh, looks ok but not overly impressed - Barnes not good enough at the moment - Mafi, wen he's good he's very good and when he's bad he's very bad!
14 - Howlett, legs aint as quick as they uesta be but stl does a job
15- Murphy - solid player but he's no Jones
Overall - not confident
Worst Munster team in 15 odd years I think, they were woeful against Leinster I thought, not one ball carrier bar the scrumhalf and maybe POC
I would not bet against Connacht in their opening HC game. We are a decent side, and you will see our best performance ever. We have waited 16 years for this. Connacht +15 for me!!!!!!!
Get yourself to Boils then Newamanix for the +18
Personally taken 20/1 on Harlequins between 16-17 for an interest
Personally taken 20/1 on Harlequins between 16-17 for an interest
dont underestimate the importance of the kick-off time for Munster. 18.00 on a sat evening is worth a converted try to Munster as against a Sunday lunch time kick-off. They have been beaten once at home in approx 40 HC games. In a difficult group last year, they won their 3 home games by a combined circa 50 points. Dont forget the basics! Need a bit more info on confirmed teams, Ref and weather forecast but 4/6 may seem a crazy price come Sun morning.
Stade have named a strong team tonight - i know backin French teams away is nt usually the way to riches but i think the -6 Stade is a good bet! Watched Worcester the weekend, played ok for 40 mins and absolutely fell apart for the other 40!
Stade Francais: 15. Paul Williams, 14. Paul Sackey, 13. Felipe Contepomi, 12. Gonzalo Tiesi, 11. Djibril Camara, 10. Paul Warwick, 9. Jerome Fillol; 1. Rodrigo Roncero, 2. Aled De Malmanche , 3. Stan Wright, 4. Tom Palmer, 5. Pascal Pape, 6. Lei Tomiki, 7. David Lyons, 8. Sergio Parisse
Replacements: 16. Laurent Sempere, 17. Olivier Milloud, 18. Rabah Slimani, 19. Gerhard Mostert, 20. Antoine Burban, 21. Byron Kelleher, 22. Jules Plisson, 23. Francis Fainifo
Stade Francais: 15. Paul Williams, 14. Paul Sackey, 13. Felipe Contepomi, 12. Gonzalo Tiesi, 11. Djibril Camara, 10. Paul Warwick, 9. Jerome Fillol; 1. Rodrigo Roncero, 2. Aled De Malmanche , 3. Stan Wright, 4. Tom Palmer, 5. Pascal Pape, 6. Lei Tomiki, 7. David Lyons, 8. Sergio Parisse
Replacements: 16. Laurent Sempere, 17. Olivier Milloud, 18. Rabah Slimani, 19. Gerhard Mostert, 20. Antoine Burban, 21. Byron Kelleher, 22. Jules Plisson, 23. Francis Fainifo
Thats a strong stade team BJG ........Warwick is a serious signing for them especially at 10 ..... Home advantage can mean a lot in the competition but i also think Stade will be too strong ...
Bet for me is Stade to win between 1 and 12 ..13/8
Bet for me is Stade to win between 1 and 12 ..13/8
To think of all those wasted years at Munster when Warwick wasn't handed the 10 shirt that he so deserved.
A win for both of us BJG 
.....your glad the worcester kicker missed that kick at the end 
.....your glad the worcester kicker missed that kick at the end
A good start to the weekends fare indeed - made me sweat tho 
Well done Mick, got those calls spot on - think there could be trouble ahead:
Munster: J Murphy; D Howlett, D Barnes, L Mafi, D Hurley; R O'Gara, C Murray; W du Preez, D Varley, BJ Botha; D Ryan, P O'Connell capt; P O'Mahony, N Ronan, J Coughlan. Replacements. D Fogarty, J Ryan, J Hayes, D O'Callaghan, D Leamy, T O'Leary, I Keatley, W Chambers.
Munster: J Murphy; D Howlett, D Barnes, L Mafi, D Hurley; R O'Gara, C Murray; W du Preez, D Varley, BJ Botha; D Ryan, P O'Connell capt; P O'Mahony, N Ronan, J Coughlan. Replacements. D Fogarty, J Ryan, J Hayes, D O'Callaghan, D Leamy, T O'Leary, I Keatley, W Chambers.
At least they have picked Lamb so that gives us a bit more hope-get at him from the start and things could turn out better.
15. Ben Foden, 14. Chris Ashton, 13. Jon Clarke, 12. James Downey, 11. Vas Artemyev, 10. Ryan Lamb, 9. Lee Dickson, 1. Soane Tonga'uiha, 2. Dylan Hartley, 3. Brian Mujati, 4. Courtney Lawes, 5. Mark Sorenson, 6. Calum Clark, 7. Tom Wood, 8. Roger Wilson,
16. Mikey Haywood, 17. Alex Waller, 18. Paul Doran-Jones, 19. Samu Manoa, 20. Phil Dowson, 21. Martin Roberts, 22. Steve Myler, 23. George Pisi.
15. Ben Foden, 14. Chris Ashton, 13. Jon Clarke, 12. James Downey, 11. Vas Artemyev, 10. Ryan Lamb, 9. Lee Dickson, 1. Soane Tonga'uiha, 2. Dylan Hartley, 3. Brian Mujati, 4. Courtney Lawes, 5. Mark Sorenson, 6. Calum Clark, 7. Tom Wood, 8. Roger Wilson,
16. Mikey Haywood, 17. Alex Waller, 18. Paul Doran-Jones, 19. Samu Manoa, 20. Phil Dowson, 21. Martin Roberts, 22. Steve Myler, 23. George Pisi.
Northampton +5 10/11
Clermont 5/6
2 strong bets for me tomorrow
__________________________________________
Ulster: 15 Simon Danielli, 14 Andrew Trimble, 13 Darren Cave, 12 Paddy Wallace, 11 Craig Gilroy, 10 Ian Humphreys, 9 Paul Marshall, 8 Pedrie Wannenburg, 7 Chris Henry, 6 Stephen Ferris, 5 Dan Tuohy, 4 Johann Muller (capt), 3 John Afoa, 2 Rory Best, 1 Tom Court.
Replacements: 16 Andi Kyriacou, 17 Paddy McAllister, 18 Declan Fitzpatrick, 19 Lewis Stevenson, 20 Willie Faloon, 21 Ian Porter, 22 Nevin Spence, 23 Adam D'Arcy.
Clermont: 15 Lee Byrne, 14 Wesley Fofana, 13 Aurélien Rougerie, 12 Regan King, 11 Noa Nakaitaci, 10 David Skrela, 9 Morgan Parra, 8 Elvis Vermeulen, 7 Gerhard Vosloo, 6 Julien Bonnaire, 5 Julien Pierre, 4 Nathan Hines, 3 Davit Zirakashvili, 2 Benjamin Kayser, 1 Lionel Faure.
Replacements: 16 Ti'i Paulo, 17 Clément Ric, 18 Mattheus Kotze, 19 Jason White, 20 Julien Bardy, 21 Kevin Senio, 22 Brock James, 23 Jean-Marcel Buttin.
Date: Saturday, November 12
Kick-off: 15:40
Venue: Ravenhill
Referee: Wayne Barnes (England)
Clermont 5/6
2 strong bets for me tomorrow
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Ulster: 15 Simon Danielli, 14 Andrew Trimble, 13 Darren Cave, 12 Paddy Wallace, 11 Craig Gilroy, 10 Ian Humphreys, 9 Paul Marshall, 8 Pedrie Wannenburg, 7 Chris Henry, 6 Stephen Ferris, 5 Dan Tuohy, 4 Johann Muller (capt), 3 John Afoa, 2 Rory Best, 1 Tom Court.
Replacements: 16 Andi Kyriacou, 17 Paddy McAllister, 18 Declan Fitzpatrick, 19 Lewis Stevenson, 20 Willie Faloon, 21 Ian Porter, 22 Nevin Spence, 23 Adam D'Arcy.
Clermont: 15 Lee Byrne, 14 Wesley Fofana, 13 Aurélien Rougerie, 12 Regan King, 11 Noa Nakaitaci, 10 David Skrela, 9 Morgan Parra, 8 Elvis Vermeulen, 7 Gerhard Vosloo, 6 Julien Bonnaire, 5 Julien Pierre, 4 Nathan Hines, 3 Davit Zirakashvili, 2 Benjamin Kayser, 1 Lionel Faure.
Replacements: 16 Ti'i Paulo, 17 Clément Ric, 18 Mattheus Kotze, 19 Jason White, 20 Julien Bardy, 21 Kevin Senio, 22 Brock James, 23 Jean-Marcel Buttin.
Date: Saturday, November 12
Kick-off: 15:40
Venue: Ravenhill
Referee: Wayne Barnes (England)
Crackin performance from Connacht tonight in defeat, they can be well proud of that
wd Newmanix
wd Newmanix
As a player said to me during the week "the bookies and public are thinking we are going over there to make shows of ourselves"
fancy northampton to beat munster tonight by 1-12 pts @ 9/4 with PP
Last play 39 phases need we say anymore ....incredible sums up what Munster in the Heniken Cup is all about .......reason we had to back Northampton + 5
I still think they have a lot of problems .Scrum was a shambles and lack of creativity is still there for all to see .....Long road ahead for them imo still.
Peter O Mahoney had a good game but that was about it really ...don t know how he was given Man of The Match ...Paul O Connell was outstanding . If you took him out of the Munster pack god help them ....
Well done Newmanix ...I underestimated Connacht ...Outstanding second half performance .I ended up roaring them on when the handicap bet was gone... I think that lad Eoin Griffen at just 21 is a fabulous player .Muldoon was outstanding also ..... A bad weather forecast for this weekend and you never know 
I still think they have a lot of problems .Scrum was a shambles and lack of creativity is still there for all to see .....Long road ahead for them imo still.
Peter O Mahoney had a good game but that was about it really ...don t know how he was given Man of The Match ...Paul O Connell was outstanding . If you took him out of the Munster pack god help them ....
Well done Newmanix ...I underestimated Connacht ...Outstanding second half performance .I ended up roaring them on when the handicap bet was gone
... I think that lad Eoin Griffen at just 21 is a fabulous player .Muldoon was outstanding also ..... A bad weather forecast for this weekend and you never know
AM wondering who Peter O'Mahoney's agent is? Whomever they are, they are doing a fantastic job. They have Sky sports and certain sections of the print media purring about him. Not saying he isn't a good player, but it almost seems a bit orchestrated to me.
Toulouse will not be comfortable at the Sportsground.
It will be a great occasion no doubt, and half of Galway will be there. I remember the day of the draw and my mates and I were hoping to get toulouse.
It will be a great occasion no doubt, and half of Galway will be there. I remember the day of the draw and my mates and I were hoping to get toulouse.
Am heading to the Sportsground and looking forward to it. Picked up tickets off ticketmaster yesterday, so presumably some still available.
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