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norn iron
03 Nov 11 22:36
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Date Joined: 18 Feb 08
| Topic/replies: 12,503 | Blogger: norn iron's blog
HOLLYMOUNT KING
DANCING SUZIE
THE REAL ARTICLE
SKY PILOT  EW KEMBLA GRANGE
FOUR COMMANDERS SAVER BAILY VIEW
MOVILLE DANGER JIGALO
DANCING GLORY

LOOKS LIKE FAVS DAY  GOOD LUCK PUNTERSCool
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Report da fallon factor November 3, 2011 9:51 PM GMT
Jigalo is def going to pick up a race soon,has been knocking at
the door for a while now! travels like a dream but sadly never finds anything when asked....
Report norn iron November 3, 2011 9:53 PM GMT
YES SOME GOOD RUNS BEHIND DECENTS SORTS AND EASY TRACK SHOULD MAKE HIM CERT EWAY
Report dj876 November 3, 2011 9:56 PM GMT
1.05-Leroy Parker
1.35-Noras Fancy
2.05-Oscars Well (nap)
2.35-Castle Wings (ew)
3.05-Four Commanders
3.35-Regal Destruval
4.05-Double Double
Report dj876 November 3, 2011 10:39 PM GMT
Oscars well -15/8 with Paddy Powers is a massive price.Ok stable have being needing the run(exception of steps to freedom)-Don't totally agree with this statement lesser lights have being running(wasn't surprised jenari blew up at galway in soft).He will love the ground-look at his run in the deloitte novice last year,step down in trip of no concern to me-(Jessie H intended running him over 2m in punch)has loads of gears-he def should be odds on imo- true champion hurdle candidate.
Report shanepio November 3, 2011 10:41 PM GMT
cant have oscars all jessies horses cutting out
Report dj876 November 3, 2011 10:57 PM GMT
21 Days and 25 runners w/o a winner -fair point about cutting out,maybe I am clutching at straws cos I think this horse is such a machine but wasn't surprised burn and turn got beat (decent bumper with the penalty)0r Jenari(bridle horse,brother of jered) on soft ground at galway and the other 23 were lesser lights (a bit far fetched).
Report Snipster November 3, 2011 11:00 PM GMT
ones I'll be backing tomorrow (care of shanto)

1.05 His Excellency flopped on his hurdling debut but might be worth giving another chance to in this maiden hurdle. He improved a good bit for his first flat run in 2010 and was unplaced first time out in the flat this year before winning a 1m2f Leop handicap in good style on good to yielding a month later. He was fancied on his hurdles debut in a 2m Punchestown maiden hurdle on yielding to soft but raced too keenly and the tank was empty as he entered the straight, finishing a 37 length 13th of 18. Gordon Elliot and Davy Russell have teamed up for two runners in this race in last 5 years, Tharawaat in 2008 was 2nd, narrowly beaten by a Meade hurdler and last year they teamed up to win the race with Toner D’Oudairies, who was also having his second run over hurdles after getting beaten 35 lengths on his first start over obstacles. His Excellency is rated 83 on the flat and is a half brother to Cesarewitch winner Leg Spinner who was a fair hurdler in his own right. Assuming he has learnt from his first hurdles start and can settle, he can go close in this. Will be interesting to see how this is priced up.

1.35 Miss Nomer looks overpriced for this grade 3 novice hurdle. She has been improving steadily over hurdles and she won her maiden hurdle over this CD 2 runs ago when a little fortunate to see the leader, Landenstown Lady, fall at the last. She outbattled Elanisa to win by a half length with the pair pulling 16 length clear of the rest. Landenstown Lady, Elanisa and 4th Back In A Tic were all placed over hurdles next time while the 5th won on the flat on next outing. She put in her best run to date when finishing 2ndi n a 2m Fairyhouse handicap hurdle off 109 last time on good ground, staying on but unable to live with the fairly easy winner, Clonsilla Faith. Form of the run has been boosted by the 3rd and 4th both winning competitive handicap hurdles since off 1lb higher marks while the 6th was placed in another Fairyhouse handicap hurdle off same mark. Being a 4yo Miss Nomer gets a 3lb weight allowance and in past 5 years 4yos have done well in this. There have been five 4yo runners that ran at odds of less than 16/1, 1 won and the other 4 were placed. Miss Nomer comes from the O’Grady yard which has been in good form and Barry Geraghty is in the saddled doing 10-7. 10/1 Boyles looks overpriced to me, and may not last long.

2.05 Macville may not look the most obvious winner of this but at the prices I’d prefer to be on her. She’s been off the track for 310 days but she won first time out last season after a 5 month layoff so can go well fresh and she won the grade 3 mares hurdle on soft on this card last year by 8 lengths from Oilily who was a close 2nd in the Top Novice Hurdle at Aintree next time out. She ran a fine race in 3rd in a 2m4f listed mares hurdle at Leop over Christmas, beaten 3 lengths by Our Girl Salley, (who she was giving 6lbs to) and Our Girl Salley followed that up with another listed hurdle win next time. Macville was only a short head behind 2nd Shop DJ (also giving 6lbs to) who was placed in a competitive listed handicap hurdle at Newbury next time and then placed in a grade 2 at the Fairyhouse National meeting before winning a grade 3 at the Punchestown Festival. Over a length behind Macville that day was For Bill, who won her next 3 starts (all over fences), including a grade 3. 5th Lonesome Dove was placed in a listed hurdle next time.
Oscars Well has run well but been beaten first time out the last 2 seasons and though many though he’d have won the Neptune, I wasn’t convinced and the form of the race hasn’t worked out great as the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 5th were all disappointing next time out over hurdles, in my opinion. The Real Article looks a classy sort and is the one to beat. He’s a CD winner and his last win was ultra impressive. He is 11/10 where as Macville is 10/1 and is getting 10lbs from him and 12lbs from Oscars Well. At 10/1 Boyles, I’m happy to speculate on Macville.

2.35 Castle Wings (each way) is a half brother to classy hurdler Conna Castle who also won the Powers Gold Cup over 2m4f and several 3m p2p’s. Castle Wings has more stamina on his sire’s sired, being by Winged Love so he really should be suited by the step up to 2m6f today. Other half brother that has won is Lord North who’s shown his best form over 2m5f. Castle Wings’ bumper form looks strong and he came on plenty for his hurdles debut on his first run this season to finish a decent 4th in a 2m Galway maiden hurdle. He was right in the vanguard as they jumped 2 out and still looked to be going well but when the pace was upped he looked a bit flat footed and could only stay on up the straight as others accelerated. That run lends credence to the idea that he’ll prefer this 2m6f trip today. James Mangan has his horses in good form too, 2 winners from last 7 runners. The Meade favourite, Ipsos Du Berlais, won impressively in a bumper last time and is clearly the one to beat but will be plenty short enough on his hurdling debut.

3.35 Regal D’Estruval won his maiden hurdle over 2 miles on fast ground in the summer of 2010. He may have been a bit unlucky not to win a 2m1f beginners chase at the Galway Festival this year when going out in front, 10 lengths clear down the back straight but got caught on the home bend before rallying and getting beaten by less than 3 lengths in 3rd, finishing well clear of the rest. He showed that 2 miles on softer ground suited fine as he put in an impressive jumping display to run them ragged in winning a 2m Tramore beginners chase by 12 lengths on his second last start (the 4th Hans Crescent was beaten 37 lengths and went out and won by a similar margin in a handicap chase off 101 yesterday).  He attempted to make all once again last time in a 2m1f Galway grade 3 novice chase on heavy but was unable to hold off Sweeps Hill, who has the potential to be a top class novice chaser. Regal D’Estruval was 2nd, beaten 5½ lengths but 4 lengths clear of the rest, which included 123 rated Ainama 6 lengths back in 4th. Regal D’Estruval races off 126 for his handicap debut over fences and that mark looks fair and 5lb claimer James Carroll knows his job. Jim Culloty has his jumps horses in fine fettle too, his last 4 have produced 2 winners and a 2nd with the one unplaced runner going off at 33/1. Regal D’Estruval 4/1 Paddy Power/Boyles
Report thefly10 November 4, 2011 12:14 AM GMT
Lets be real if Jessie Harrington has Oscars Well pencilled in for a crack against Hurricane Fly in two weeks time, he should be winning tomorrow.
Report Newmanix November 4, 2011 8:23 AM GMT
oscars well nap
Report Deplasterer November 4, 2011 8:39 AM GMT
All in Oscars & double it all up on Bostons tommorrow.Scared
Report dinglemick November 4, 2011 9:32 AM GMT
Cracking Card ....One of those ones that rarely comes up when you fancy 4 or 5 out of the way !!!!!!!Usually ends in tears CryCryLaughLaugh

I ve tipped up Leroy Parker in his last couple of runs on the flat who only managed to get placed , the latest being last Sunday at leopardstown . Now i may be talking through my pocket a bit here but i couldn t understand why , when they turned into the straight young foley came up the inside instead of coming up the outside like the winner and the second . Anyway he s looked a 3 year old hurdler in the making for some time to me and with elliots disapointing on hos first run over hurdles and hollymount king always finding a couple too good , i think he s well up to winning first time of asking today . He ll be well schooled coming from the meade/carberry yard . Incidently meade has a fantastic record at this meeting over the years and i think he ll have an excellent couple of days  . Anyone know is there betting on leading trainer over the two days ????
3/1 leroy hopefully off to a good start .
Meade should also win with Ipos du Berlais but he s a bit short at 8/13

The mare i m most looking most forward to this NH season is Dazzling Susie and i think she ll take all the beating today 11/10 ... I tipped her up for the mares hurdle at punchestown a few weeks back but she was withdrawn . She has an excellent record fresh and i heard davy russell being interviewed recently saying she s the horse he s most looking forward to riding this year !! big statement .

I backed Oscars wells all through last year , thought he was wasy over priced for the delloitte at 10 SillySilly ... Looks a match with real article and oscars .....Real article will obviously have fitness on his side but i can t desert oscars now , won t be going mad on him though and i hope he s been stabled with Steps to freedom recently LaughLaugh 2/1

Four Commanders was a real eyectacher for me in Limerick the last day and i think he ll take all the beating in the beginners chase 9/4.

Finally i know a lot of posters on here have been waiting in the long grass  for Moville to " come alive" .....today could be the day 6 /1 Wink

good luck to norn and all up north today should be a cracking days racing Wink
Report ReimerpYsatnaf November 4, 2011 12:48 PM GMT
No i don't think you're talking through your pocket re Leroy Parker's run at Leopardstown the other day as i could not understand why he came up the inside either when he had every chance to come wide to where the ground was obviously riding better.

Shadow Eile ran a shocker at Punchestown (said to be in season) and if forgiven that run she looks a decent price @ 4s, i will have a small few quid on her E/W.

Main bet of the day for me is MOVILLE in the 3.35, was disappointed with him last year over fences but to me it didn't look like he was 'off' a lot of the time. Ran really well last time back over hurdles behind Pittoni and Donnas Palm (who was impressive from what i could see in the fog at Wexford on chase debut). He still looks on a good chase mark to me and i'm sure he is better than it. The jockey is a worry as i am not a fan but i still think he should go close (actually think he should win).
Report rubyisgodinthesaddle November 4, 2011 1:02 PM GMT
Leroy Parker for me in the first. Meade in cracking form and with Carberry aboard bound to be well schooled and relaxed at his work at home. Think he could win this with his head in his chest!
Report ReimerpYsatnaf November 4, 2011 1:10 PM GMT
Did Donoghue stop riding Experimentalist before the line there or was it just me imagining things?
Report rubyisgodinthesaddle November 4, 2011 1:11 PM GMT
Diabolical jumping down the back straight cost him. Made loads of ground up but could be a mirage effect as it was a poor race. His Excellancy a terrible buy, swishing his tail. Don't waste your training fees on him giggy
Report punchestown November 4, 2011 1:15 PM GMT
That winner finished behind Hollymount King & Chart Master at Punchestown and turned it round here,impossible for punters.
Report dinglemick November 4, 2011 1:16 PM GMT
Leroy he s breaking my heart and pocketCry ..... He s turning into my Balmont Mast Cry
Report Giant Strides November 4, 2011 1:18 PM GMT
punchestown     04 Nov 11 13:15 
That winner finished behind Hollymount King & Chart Master at Punchestown and turned it round here,impossible for punters.


That sounds like a revelation to you punch!
"Racing is impossible to predict shock" Tongue Out
Report The Gotchee November 4, 2011 1:21 PM GMT
Oscars Well is in a different league to his rivals. His only real danger couldn't win a handicap of 9.10 three runs back. 15/8 is massive. I am not worried about his fitness, heard he has been ready to run for several weeks. Start backing him for the Champion Hurdle.Cool
Report Newmanix November 4, 2011 1:23 PM GMT
Only bet today is Oscars Well.  No need to back anything else.
Report punchestown November 4, 2011 1:27 PM GMT
That sounds like a revelation to you punch!
"Racing is impossible to predict shock"
-------------------------------------
If you haven't guessed already Giant I dutched the other pair against it,20 length turnaround in 3 weeks on same ground Crazy
Report Giant Strides November 4, 2011 1:33 PM GMT
Nothing surprises me in racing anymore punch. When I saw Leroy Parkers name on the card I thought there's a possible bet. Then I spotted his other one. No thanks! Devil
Good luck with the rest of the card anyway.
Report applehunter November 4, 2011 1:34 PM GMT
The Real Article was very impressive at Tipperary.

Put Luska Lad well in his place.

Oscars Well is exciting but we don't really know how good he is yet and 1st race of the season concerns also.
Report ReimerpYsatnaf November 4, 2011 1:39 PM GMT
Shocked Shadow Eile stumbled badly twice on the inside there, think they better go out and check the track
Report rubyisgodinthesaddle November 4, 2011 1:39 PM GMT
RussellSurprisedSurprisedSurprised. What the fook was that
Report punchestown November 4, 2011 1:40 PM GMT
WTF was that Russell?
Report dinglemick November 4, 2011 1:43 PM GMT
Davy Russell ruby ....we all need to be careful what we say AngryAngryAngryAngry
Report rubyisgodinthesaddle November 4, 2011 1:43 PM GMT
No way was that not decided by the trainer beforehand. No way could that have been riding instructions
Report rubyisgodinthesaddle November 4, 2011 1:44 PM GMT
sorry i mean no way could Russell ride like that without the trainers approval??..I be gutted if i backed that.
Report dinglemick November 4, 2011 1:45 PM GMT
I backed it Ruby ....there is only one reason why a jockey would ride a horse like that
Report rubyisgodinthesaddle November 4, 2011 1:47 PM GMT
agreed, disgusting from connections/rider
Report punchestown November 4, 2011 1:49 PM GMT
If a claimer rode a horse like that on that ground there'd be uproar,backers must be fuming (I didn't),it was never going to get home at that pace.

Hard to believe a hardened pro could give the horse a ride like that Wink
Report Deplasterer November 4, 2011 2:00 PM GMT
Took some more 2.8 on Oscars, it'll be a quiet betting day 2mor pour moi if this things beat.Scared
Report GANT007 November 4, 2011 2:10 PM GMT
Geraghty........strong as an oxx.
Report by purpose November 4, 2011 2:11 PM GMT
Glad too see TRA has got over his dislike of the stick.
Report dinglemick November 4, 2011 2:12 PM GMT
fitness won the race for the real article
Report Deplasterer November 4, 2011 2:13 PM GMT
Didnt see the race, Oscars run like a pig?Cry
Report ReimerpYsatnaf November 4, 2011 2:15 PM GMT
Bit keen early, travelling best 2 out, hit the front between last 2 and just blew up like a lot of Jessie's horses should improve for the run
Report dinglemick November 4, 2011 2:16 PM GMT
didn t think so daplasterer ....jumped and travelled well ....cruised into the lead two out then seemed to blow up ... jockey didn t hit him once with the stick
Report punchestown November 4, 2011 2:17 PM GMT
Kalann ran a cracker,I like the comment about the stick and the winner.
Report Newmanix November 4, 2011 2:17 PM GMT
he ran well enough, fitness was an issue.  im glad i set up a lay for 1.6(he went to 1.38)  money back thank fook
Report Deplasterer November 4, 2011 2:17 PM GMT
Cheers Premier, It's enough to put me off Bostons in the chase tommorrow. Chase the dough back here on Russell.
Report wildmanfromborneo November 4, 2011 2:23 PM GMT
Two statements in a row from by purpose that i agree with,the last time he ran at Tipperary the money was down and he won easily but he got a few belts of the whip just in case.
Report ReimerpYsatnaf November 4, 2011 2:44 PM GMT
A nice performance there from Ipsos Du Berlais, not sure the race will work out to be that strong but he couldn't of done it much easier.

The loose horse had a good time anyway Laugh
Report wildmanfromborneo November 4, 2011 2:48 PM GMT
A real racehorse everything went against him,no pace and constantly hassled by the loose horse and still hacked up.
Report Deplasterer November 4, 2011 2:51 PM GMT
Thank fook for that & 4/5 spShocked.
Report Newmanix November 4, 2011 3:03 PM GMT
wd plasterer.  i have laid the next 2 favs for a place in the beg chase at odds on.  sorry punters!!
Report ReimerpYsatnaf November 4, 2011 3:38 PM GMT
The money has come for Moville Grin hopefully he does the business now
Report ReimerpYsatnaf November 4, 2011 3:47 PM GMT
ran like a pig Plain
Report Newmanix November 4, 2011 3:55 PM GMT
banabh!
Report Deplasterer November 4, 2011 4:08 PM GMT
Smullen & Murtagh both at dundalk tonight, I'll double this Nina good thing with Pat in the first at Dundalk.
Report ReimerpYsatnaf November 4, 2011 4:12 PM GMT
I blame my 2 bad picks today down to lack of sleep from getting up at silly o clock to watch the golf SillyLaugh
Report Deplasterer November 4, 2011 4:26 PM GMT
I like to think my bad picks today are clearing the way for going thru the card tommorrowSilly.
Report ReimerpYsatnaf November 4, 2011 4:26 PM GMT
Laugh i'll follow you then tomorrow
Report Deplasterer November 4, 2011 4:57 PM GMT
Laugh, be lucky Premier,Hoping to be there 2mor all being well.
Report Giant Strides November 4, 2011 5:01 PM GMT
That's how I view my punting everyday Deplasterer. Laugh Cry
Report norn iron November 4, 2011 5:06 PM GMT
HAPPY WITH 3 WINNERS AND WHAT A RIDE ON TORRENS IN BUMPER SUPERB. IF JIGALO WINS WOULD WON BIG BUT THERE YU GO .ROLL ON SAT IMO BOSTENS ANGEL CANT WIN AND ITS MY FAV HORSE   AS JESSES DEFF NOT FULLY WOUND UP BUT HOPE BOSTENS PROVES ME WRONG
Report norn iron November 4, 2011 5:11 PM GMT
DAZZLING SUZIE IN RACING POST THE TRAINOR STATED THAT DAVY RODE IT IN WORK  LAS WEEK AND SAID IT NEEDED ANOTHER RUN SO I DIDNT BACK IT AND DONT THINK HE RODE bad RACE BUT ID DEFF BE ON NTO
Report soapp November 4, 2011 6:22 PM GMT
Nice to see Miss Nomer win as that was the plan. I was at Punchestown last month for the Star raceday. Eddie O'Grady was on hand to brief us that the race up North would be her target as there was always a chance of a bit of nice ground. Nice to see the plan come off. The SP was generous maybe as the ground was softer than ideal.
Report norn iron November 4, 2011 7:30 PM GMT
FFS SOAPP NOW YU TELL US ShockedLaughLaughTHINK BIG RACE IS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT CHASE AN DANGER SIZING EUROPE?
Report Newmanix November 4, 2011 8:48 PM GMT
soapp?
Report thefly10 November 4, 2011 10:15 PM GMT
Four Commanders was indeed impressive today. Well done to the lads that flagged him up early on.
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