Irish Sports
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christmas comes twice in the space of 5 days
christmas comes twice in the space of 5 days
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I wouldn`t have clue TF. Maybe BJG might know.
I only mention it because the handicap lines in rugby are generally (and impressively) very accurate. |
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Every sport has it's oddities as to how the market evolves and is influenced. Football is dictated by the Asian market etc. It seems Keen Leader has exposed a gaping big hole in the Irish firms line setters. Clearly they are sitting in an office and are don't have deep throat-ed insights to whats happening on the ground. I suppose they get away with it because GAA has not yet got a big betting profile. The liquidity on here reflects that.
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I don't think PP employ a GAA odds compiler from every county !
KL, from his lengthy and informed posts today and last week, comes across as someone who has an expert knowledge of Laois hurling and a very good knowledge of the sport in general. Also, crucially, he is able to accurately apply numeric valuations to that knowledge. There are others (very few) like him, but they choose not to share their knowledge and expertise on public fora. That is perfectly understandable for various reasons. Kl also comes across as a very decent person. |
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So essentially you're saying that PP line makers are guessing?
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No,they just don't appear to know as much about Laois hurling as KL. They wouldn't hold their jobs for very long if they didn't have a very good knowledge of hurling in general.
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He is saying that they are lacking in local knowledge re teams and opposition , e.g. injuries , suspensions, form , local expectations , structures , management etc that imo can only be gained from attending the games in question and also knowing contacts in opposition counties with re to their expectations regarding their team, also think they are not doing their homework re the past stats
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well done K L again only reading it now but fair play 2 ya
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In both posts KL makes reference to the results of previous matches between the sides or those of similar ability and also the results of challenge matches. All these would be available to any compiler worth his salt. Surely it's not an excuse to say inside knowledge of Laois hurling was enough to set the line 6-8 points too low?
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There's more to his edge than that, Tradefair, as per toby's post above.
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Well done again kl. Missed this thread altogether. Was out training some of the 2025 All Ireland winning Dublin team last night.
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We look forward to you tipping up Dublin -11 v Kilkenny as 2025 approaches, Tony.....
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KL,
I read your post about the Cork/Laois match after the game and it appeared to me that it had been written by someone with psychic abilities such was your accurate prediction of how the game panned out. On this basis I put 200 on Wexford last night on the handicap and again you were spot on. Thanks a million . |
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paddy power odds compilers need sacking. say they are well ashamed reading this thread.
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Both the results keen predicted were most unusual and talking about powers getting the line wrong is just silly... they use a template that generates plenty of profit and sometimes, obviously, people on the ground will know more. For Cork to get ten goals and last night's score to happen could not have been predicted without having acute knowledge of how seemingly bad Laois were on both counts.
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and Laois were clearly a disgrace in senior as Cork are no goalgetters at the best of times
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Raging I didn't see this earlier. Well done KL Great work.
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TradeFair
In both posts KL makes reference to the results of previous matches between the sides or those of similar ability and also the results of challenge matches. All these would be available to any compiler worth his salt. Surely it's not an excuse to say inside knowledge of Laois hurling was enough to set the line 6-8points too low? While I agree that the results of challenge matches should be taken into account (although when it comes to pricing up championship matches, it's hard to judge the merit of league matches sometimes let alone challenge matches), KL does make reference to a conversation he had with a Laois player (in the senior game vs Cork thread) and also to "a few phone calls" he made in relation to last nights game. This is invaluable insight into the mindset of both the Laois teams which could never be gleaned from any amount of challenge matches. What these 2 threads do show is that specialisation can give the punter a huge advantage over the books when an opportunity does arise. |
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Top Tipping..!
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Top Tipping..!
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also last night's match would be very small betting fry usually... note how long they left the line as it was after keen's post...
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KL you are the exploit man, do you see any other GAA markets for the weekend that could be worth takin advantage of?
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Thefly10.........Meath -3.
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Cheers GANT007 will have a look out for that. Nice to the game live on Saturday evening. If Meath get their act together they should beat them comfortably.
Was looking at Cork and Offaly in the hurling, if Cork could score 10 goals against Laois, surely they could get a few against Offaly and maybe Offaly could get a couple. 6 goals or more 4/1 with PP. Great odds for a game of hurling where the chances of a goal is greater than the football. |
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Cracking game to have on and I will be watching it in Dundalk greyhound stadium........I'll leave the Meath jersey at home............That 4/1 looks good, might have a piece of that...........Cheers and good luck with your bets.
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Only seeing this now but had taken advantage. Wexford beat the Offaly under 21 team by 5-21 to 1-8 in a practice match before they played Kilkenny. From speaking to someone involved Offaly were useless. The handicap has now been moved to -9 with PP but may be still of interest given Dublin's home advantage and that Dublin have the likes of Rushe involved.
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well done and thanks kl, as alluded to earlier , you cant beat the local knowledge for just getting an edge.
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Cracking game to have on and I will be watching it in Dundalk greyhound stadium........I'll leave the Meath jersey at home............That 4/1 looks good, might have a piece of that...........Cheers and good luck with your bets.
Same to you have a good weekend !! Up the royal ! |
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Many thanks KL, I followed you again and made a nice few bob. Great to see a poster having the courage to post views on hear for others to benefit.
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Why wouldn't he have local knowledge lads! Isn't he from the heart of the county after all.
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fair dues to him he knows his stuff...portlaois i presume?
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Mountrath
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youve arrived when you mentioned in the racing post!!
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have not seen todays racing post, what does it say ?
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Powers are great lads-dismiss it as a small loss yet every other time they're in print they tell us how the most trivial event cost them millions.
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It was mentioned in the GAA pullout yesterday. (Didn't read it myself though).
Oddly enough I wonder if they mentioned their expert who tipped up 'goal shy' Cork to score under 27.5pts  |