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keen leader
22 Jun 11 11:44
Joined:
Date Joined: 05 Feb 02
| Topic/replies: 634 | Blogger: keen leader's blog
our focus is tonights leinster u21 hurling semi final wexford and laois.

wexford scored 1-16 when  defeating a good kilkenny team in the quarter final and this team contains a healthy number of young lads likely to be the backbone of their senior outfit in the long term.

laois have a very poor squad, about 4 fair players and 11 making up the numbers, including 2 who are error prone, akin to soccers paul mcshane and good for yielding gilt edged scoring opportunities.

these 2 teams met at minor level 3 years ago wexford won, 5-19 to 2-11......since then wexford as a group have improved, laois regressed.

the game is in wexford park tonight, worth 4 or 5 points to the home side.

when i analysed this game and made a few phone calls, i figured this would be a cakewalk for wexford with a scoreline of 4-20 to 1-9 very likely.

it is a 60 minute game, so a massive winning score is less likely.

however i was pleasantly surprised when our friends at ppower decided to offer us wexford -10 pts at 1/1...nearly as generous as the lenders once were at anglo irish.

i make wex -10pts about a 2/7 shot and naturally getting an opportunity to punt a 2/7 shot at evens doesnt come along every day, so accordingly one must take advantage.

thats me done for now, on my travels, enjoy your summer and keep the cream cookies on their toes.
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Report workrider June 22, 2011 11:48 AM BST
not a gga gambler but from what i read from your last post on here ..you're the man ..not betting on it myself , but good luck with it keen....
Report Dan Chipowski June 22, 2011 11:54 AM BST
You don't owe us anything after the last one but i've had a nifty on Love

They'll probably cut it this avo once a few people see this thread. Silly
Report irishro June 22, 2011 12:29 PM BST
You move the market KL. PP -12 already. We see ye lurking Laugh
Report Dan Chipowski June 22, 2011 12:36 PM BST
Laugh
Report DistressedPostRace June 22, 2011 12:44 PM BST
keep going keen and you'll be offered a job at their new base in Belfield!
Report tobywong. June 22, 2011 1:03 PM BST
wex missing two strong players in shore and leacy for those that are punting
Report oldwood June 22, 2011 5:15 PM BST
ladbrokes 4/6 -10
Report stayonyourfeet June 22, 2011 7:40 PM BST
PP -13 evens now.
Report Dan Chipowski June 22, 2011 8:08 PM BST
1-04 to 0-01 after 7 minutes.
Report tobywong. June 22, 2011 8:12 PM BST
2-4 to 2 after 12
Report db1974 June 22, 2011 8:13 PM BST
Where you getting the updates from?
Report tobywong. June 22, 2011 8:14 PM BST
sportsnewsireland match tracker
Report db1974 June 22, 2011 8:16 PM BST
thanks
Report tobywong. June 22, 2011 8:17 PM BST
3-5 to 4 after 17
Report tobywong. June 22, 2011 8:19 PM BST
4-5 to 4 after 18
Report stayonyourfeet June 22, 2011 8:27 PM BST
Up 15 already, cheers KL, legend!
Report Dan Chipowski June 22, 2011 8:28 PM BST
4-09 to 0-05

Strong breeze with Wexford in the first half though according to comms on South East radio.
Report Dan Chipowski June 22, 2011 8:31 PM BST
Still reeling off the scores though......would need to be a surprising collapse not to cover the 10pts now.
Report Dan Chipowski June 22, 2011 8:33 PM BST
Half Time 4-11 to 0-05
Report irishbookmaker June 22, 2011 8:35 PM BST
Keen. Twice now because of your tips I have struggled to get on anything close to what I wanted.
Can you not wait a bit longer to give your tips on here please!!
It is the only market where us shrewdies have one over on the books.
Thanks(kind of).
Report Rowley Mile June 22, 2011 8:47 PM BST
^^^^^^^ [smiley:crazy]
Report frank60 June 22, 2011 8:48 PM BST
Cry im late seeing this again.Cry
Report db1974 June 22, 2011 8:51 PM BST
20 points up now but "Wexford have taken a few players off to give them a rest ahead of the weekends football match against Carlow"
Report stayonyourfeet June 22, 2011 8:51 PM BST
5-12 0-6 :)
Report irishbookmaker June 22, 2011 8:54 PM BST
Seriously keep them coming anyway.
Report tobywong. June 22, 2011 8:59 PM BST
6-13 to 7
Report stayonyourfeet June 22, 2011 9:00 PM BST
7-14 0-6
Report stayonyourfeet June 22, 2011 9:00 PM BST
* 0-7
Report db1974 June 22, 2011 9:01 PM BST
goal for Laois
Report TradeFair June 22, 2011 9:02 PM BST
How are the compilers getting these markets so wrong?
Report Dan Chipowski June 22, 2011 9:03 PM BST
More easy money, cheers KL.
Report irishbookmaker June 22, 2011 9:13 PM BST
Wex beat Offaly by something similar about three weeks ago.
Carlow beat Offaly by 6 in minor three years ago so the Dubs minus looks fair enough to  me.
Report db1974 June 22, 2011 9:15 PM BST
FT: 7-18 vs 2-10

Well done again KL
Report lapsy pa June 22, 2011 9:30 PM BST
Pure class KL,enjoy your travels.
Report yourlack June 22, 2011 9:38 PM BST
Thank god your not in the gaa tipping compLaugh
Report Giant Strides June 22, 2011 9:59 PM BST
TradeFair     22 Jun 11 21:02 
How are the compilers getting these markets so wrong?

They wouldn`t get a job as rugby odds compliers that`s for sure!
Woeful handicap lines.
Report ilikewavingatbuses June 22, 2011 10:01 PM BST
Laughyourlack


gl KL, whatever happens your last time was outstanding, top stuff.
Report Sligored June 22, 2011 10:41 PM BST
great tip kl, had cork in the handicap at the weekend but just seen this now , fair play
Report TradeFair June 22, 2011 10:44 PM BST
Giant Strides
22 Jun 11 21:59 Joined: 03 Aug 08 | Topic/replies: 3,709 | Blogger: Giant Strides's blog
TradeFair     22 Jun 11 21:02 
How are the compilers getting these markets so wrong?

They wouldn`t get a job as rugby odds compliers that`s for sure!
Woeful handicap lines.


Powers are incorrectly leading the lemmings with the GAA lines but what firm controls or has most influence over the rugby lines?
Report Giant Strides June 22, 2011 10:47 PM BST
I wouldn`t have clue TF. Maybe BJG might know.
I only mention it because the handicap lines in rugby are generally (and impressively) very accurate.
Report TradeFair June 22, 2011 10:56 PM BST
Every sport has it's oddities as to how the market evolves and is influenced. Football is dictated by the Asian market etc. It seems Keen Leader has exposed a gaping big hole in the Irish firms line setters. Clearly they are sitting in an office and are don't have deep throat-ed insights to whats happening on the ground. I suppose they get away with it because GAA has not yet got a big betting profile. The liquidity on here reflects that.
Report reb June 22, 2011 11:28 PM BST
I don't think PP employ a GAA odds compiler from every county !

KL, from his lengthy and informed posts today and last week, comes across as someone who has an expert knowledge of Laois hurling and a very good knowledge of the sport in general. Also, crucially, he is able to accurately apply numeric valuations to that knowledge. There are others (very few) like him, but they choose not to share their knowledge and expertise on public fora. That is perfectly understandable for various reasons.

Kl also comes across as a very decent person.
Report TradeFair June 22, 2011 11:31 PM BST
So essentially you're saying that PP line makers are guessing?
Report reb June 22, 2011 11:38 PM BST
No,they just don't appear to know as much about Laois hurling as KL. They wouldn't hold their jobs for very long if they didn't have a very good knowledge of hurling in general.
Report tobywong. June 22, 2011 11:38 PM BST
He is saying that they are lacking in local knowledge re teams and opposition , e.g. injuries , suspensions, form , local expectations , structures , management etc that imo can only be gained from attending the games in question and also knowing contacts in opposition counties with re to their expectations regarding their team,  also think they are not doing their homework re the past stats
Report one last chance June 22, 2011 11:42 PM BST
well done K L again only reading it now but fair play 2 ya
Report TradeFair June 22, 2011 11:43 PM BST
In both posts KL makes reference to the results of previous matches between the sides or those of similar ability and also the results of challenge matches. All these would be available to any compiler worth his salt. Surely it's not an excuse to say inside knowledge of Laois hurling was enough to set the line 6-8 points too low?
Report reb June 22, 2011 11:50 PM BST
There's more to his edge than that, Tradefair, as per toby's post above.
Report Tony Fenton June 23, 2011 7:19 AM BST
Well done again kl. Missed this thread altogether. Was out training some of the 2025 All Ireland winning Dublin team last night.
Report reb June 23, 2011 8:37 AM BST
We look forward to you tipping up Dublin -11 v Kilkenny as 2025 approaches, Tony.....
Report brillo June 23, 2011 8:52 AM BST
KL,

I read your post about the Cork/Laois match after the game and it appeared to me that it had been written by someone with psychic abilities such was your accurate prediction of how the game panned out. On this basis I put 200 on Wexford last night on the handicap and again you were spot on. Thanks a million .
Report ko2 June 23, 2011 9:31 AM BST
paddy power odds compilers need sacking. say they are well ashamed reading this thread.
Report DistressedPostRace June 23, 2011 9:32 AM BST
Both the results keen predicted were most unusual and talking about powers getting the line wrong is just silly... they use a template that generates plenty of profit and sometimes, obviously, people on the ground will know more. For Cork to get ten goals and last night's score to happen could not have been predicted without having acute knowledge of how seemingly bad Laois were on both counts.
Report DistressedPostRace June 23, 2011 9:33 AM BST
and Laois were clearly a disgrace in senior as Cork are no goalgetters at the best of times
Report thefly10 June 23, 2011 9:51 AM BST
Raging I didn't see this earlier. Well done KL Great work.
Report db1974 June 23, 2011 10:04 AM BST
TradeFair
In both posts KL makes reference to the results of previous matches between the sides or those of similar ability and also the results of challenge matches. All these would be available to any compiler worth his salt. Surely it's not an excuse to say inside knowledge of Laois hurling was enough to set the line 6-8points too low?


While I agree that the results of challenge matches should be taken into account (although when it comes to pricing up championship matches, it's hard to judge the merit of league matches sometimes let alone challenge matches), KL does make reference to a conversation he had with a Laois player (in the senior game vs Cork thread) and also to "a few phone calls" he made in relation to last nights game.

This is invaluable insight into the mindset of both the Laois teams which could never be gleaned from any amount of challenge matches.

What these 2 threads do show is that specialisation can give the punter a huge advantage over the books when an opportunity does arise.
Report scoobyknows June 23, 2011 10:24 AM BST
Top Tipping..!
Report scoobyknows June 23, 2011 10:24 AM BST
Top Tipping..!
Report DistressedPostRace June 23, 2011 10:42 AM BST
also last night's match would be very small betting fry usually... note how long they left the line as it was after keen's post...
Report thefly10 June 23, 2011 11:45 AM BST
KL you are the exploit man, do you see any other GAA markets for the weekend that could be worth takin advantage of?
Report GANT007 June 23, 2011 12:22 PM BST
Thefly10.........Meath -3.
Report thefly10 June 23, 2011 12:38 PM BST
Cheers GANT007 will have a look out for that. Nice to the game live on Saturday evening. If Meath get their act together they should beat them comfortably.

Was looking at Cork and Offaly in the hurling, if Cork could score 10 goals against Laois, surely they could get a few against Offaly and maybe Offaly could get a couple. 6 goals or more 4/1 with PP. Great odds for a game of hurling where the chances of a goal is greater than the football.
Report GANT007 June 23, 2011 1:02 PM BST
Cracking game to have on and I will be watching it in Dundalk greyhound stadium........I'll leave the Meath jersey at home............That 4/1 looks good, might have a piece of that...........Cheers and good luck with your bets.
Report New Approach June 23, 2011 1:41 PM BST
Only seeing this now but had taken advantage. Wexford beat the Offaly under 21 team by 5-21 to 1-8 in a practice match before they played Kilkenny. From speaking to someone involved Offaly were useless. The handicap has now been moved to -9 with PP but may be still of interest given Dublin's home advantage and that Dublin have the likes of Rushe involved.
Report ballaman68 June 23, 2011 1:42 PM BST
well done and thanks kl, as alluded to earlier , you cant beat the local knowledge for just getting an edge.
Report thefly10 June 23, 2011 1:46 PM BST
Cracking game to have on and I will be watching it in Dundalk greyhound stadium........I'll leave the Meath jersey at home............That 4/1 looks good, might have a piece of that...........Cheers and good luck with your bets.

Same to you have a good weekend !! Up the royal !
Report Santry June 23, 2011 4:52 PM BST
Many thanks KL, I followed you again and made a nice few bob. Great to see a poster having the courage to post views on hear for others to benefit.
Report soapp June 23, 2011 7:09 PM BST
Why wouldn't he have local knowledge lads! Isn't he from the heart of the county after all. Laugh
Report kavvie June 23, 2011 7:13 PM BST
fair dues to him he knows his stuff...portlaois i presume?
Report Distant View June 25, 2011 5:58 AM BST
Mountrath
Report kavvie June 25, 2011 11:11 AM BST
youve arrived when you mentioned in the racing post!!
Report 2smiggy June 25, 2011 12:18 PM BST
have not seen todays racing post, what does it say ?
Report irishro June 25, 2011 12:24 PM BST
Powers are great lads-dismiss it as a small loss yet every other time they're in print they tell us how the most trivial event cost them millions.
Report Dan Chipowski June 25, 2011 12:25 PM BST
It was mentioned in the GAA pullout yesterday. (Didn't read it myself though).

Oddly enough I wonder if they mentioned their expert who tipped up 'goal shy' Cork to score under 27.5pts Devil
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