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Rocketfingers
19 May 11 20:07
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Date Joined: 20 May 10
| Topic/replies: 9,152 | Blogger: Rocketfingers's blog
I think this is a really good bet, Bet3+6+5 have a line for this game of Leitrim +5.5 equates to a +6 line, it should be about a 1.76 bet (PP's only go 1.66). Added to this i reckon Leitrim are a bet anyway on the normal 5 point handicap. They recorded 1 point losses in their league campaign to both Roscommon and Longford away and this bodes well for this match. Sligo who were relegated surely not 5 point better than those teams !? They are missing 2 very key players Johnny Davey and forward David Kelly while Mark Breheny who to me from what i seen of them and read of them had a good league campaign is carrying an injury and only named on the bench. Sligo are too short and i think worth taking on with a 5 point head start with bet all the days in a year.

Billies go 6/5 Sligo and the book adds up to 100% when you combine best prices, there maybe more value with actual difference in top Sligo price, but given the Sligo team news as well as Sligo are too short to start off in my view Leitrim are a better bet.
Pause Switch to Standard View Sligo v Leitrim. Leitrim+5.5 Points
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Report Wallflower May 19, 2011 8:15 PM BST
SSShhhhhhh!!!  Ok then, well spotted.

Do a fair bet of GAA betting.....my little pet team over the years are Leitrim, gamey as f*ck, perennial underdogs, but invariably lose their match, go down fighting and beat the handicap. Thanks lads, see you next yearLaugh.Don't know the records but I must have done this bet at least 8 or 9 times in the last 6 or 7 years - almost automatically at this stage. I think its only twice they haven't came up trumps. Never big money, usually about 20. Over a period of time it definitely pays off.
Report Wallflower May 19, 2011 8:20 PM BST
Though I remember having a thread on here about them, away to Galway in a televised match.....i reckoned they'd be way shorter than the initial 8/1 or 9/1. Got into an argument over it evenLaugh. Banged in a second-half goal to get within 2pts with about ten to go....layed off at about 6/4....got beat by 4 or 5 but as usual came within the handicap too! Went for a very nice meal that night on the strength of tehm, god bless their little green socks!
Report Rocketfingers May 19, 2011 8:33 PM BST
Sorry meant to say +5.5 equates to a +6 line with the bookies who have a draw in the handicap.
Report Toto82 May 19, 2011 10:35 PM BST
Handicap draw in GAA betting is the most pointless thing and a bookies free money fund when it comes up.  No other sports have handicap draw, e.g. basketball, handball, etc
Report Wallflower May 20, 2011 1:06 AM BST
Oklahoma City +2.5  2.04   2.14

Dallas -2.5         1.89   1.97

View full market

Check for yourself, took me 5 seconds to find that!!! Practically all sports have handicap betting!!

Though in fairness I do not do handicap betting as a rule, and I agree completely with you its a bookies free money fund - but it is in all sports, not just GAA. Though I have noticed in GAA (football), Leitrim, Longford, Limerick, Tipperary and Wicklow are considerably better than 50% to beat handicap - bit of anorak about these thingsSad. But it pays over a periodHappy

Also, in high-scoring sports where I fancy an underdog, I'll have a punt on my selection and might split some of my stake onto the handicap. In this example I believe Leitrim to be about a 3/1 shot to beat Sligo, but odds are 5/1, I'll have that, but I have found a little "saver" on the handicap can be useful.

Straight handicap betting is giving you about a 40% chance on a 50% chance outcome.

But, point taken - and i agree.
Report kavvie May 20, 2011 9:58 AM BST
the sport where the handicapper gets it right more often than any is rugby union.its incredible really at times...very often spot on or one point either side.and another intresting fact about this is that since italy joined the 6 nations(11/12 yrs?),if you backed them every time they played with the handicap you would have made a lot of money.i think they faied to beat it only twice..
Report Distant View May 22, 2011 5:50 PM BST
Not just good things on the handicap!
Report BJG May 22, 2011 6:34 PM BST
wd
Report kavvie May 22, 2011 6:40 PM BST
well done...you were very adamant it was priced wrong..i didnt share your view but they are always dangerous in connacht..
Report Rocketfingers May 22, 2011 8:07 PM BST
Gutted with the result, Have thought we'd win but Leitrim were big value and i thought they'd run us close so happy enough to collect. The goal won the game for Leitrim and they deserved it to be fair.
Report Swinia May 22, 2011 8:39 PM BST
BOOM. told ye all...crazy price !!!!
Report timberman May 22, 2011 9:15 PM BST
What are you gutted for Poison fingers ??...sure you hate gaelic games ...i'd say your no more from Sligo than Barack Obama!
Report Rocketfingers May 22, 2011 9:25 PM BST
Timberman you're a bit slow me auld codger, You'll be banned again soon Timberman if you keep this rubbish talk up !!!
Report GANT007 May 22, 2011 9:44 PM BST
Timberman take notice of the last sentence..........I was reported last Sunday for something I said the day before....I only got cleared by the betfair police on Thursday last after they had a look at the threads.........They would not say who reported me as that is their policy.........I couldn't care less by the way.
Report timberman May 22, 2011 10:08 PM BST
God help us..thanks for that anyways gant....not much fun on this forum anymore..unless a person is obcessed with the league of ireland your hounded off the site.....think i'll stick to an fearr rua from now on
Report Wallflower May 22, 2011 10:24 PM BST
Leitrim[:D][:D] - came up trumps again!! Fiesty little feckersHappy, had a sneaky tenner at 5/1 on the outright as well.
Report GANT007 May 22, 2011 10:24 PM BST
Sure that's the way it goes.......I am going to stay clear of here myself from now on and pop in just to post a selection in BJG's GAA competition.
Report Rocketfingers May 22, 2011 10:30 PM BST
Sligo are not good though add to the fact they were missing the players i posted about missing and they were truely awful value. I meant to beat Kildare but so excited by our championship game clean forgot, ranging when i see the result :)
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