If Dunguib loses......

oh yes me for sure

joon.........have you played there ?

Iav worked there

we were suppose to play them in soccer match

Dunguib:

Ill be lumping on after he jumps the first 3 hurdles

great place love it

You'd be fairly silly to lump your entire tank on him.

If Dunguib loses..........................no such thing is there?

no chance real question is will he win on the bridle or not

I hope the jock doesn't get too smart, and unleashes him plenty early enough. Will win by a hurdle imo.

He also mighten win over a hurdle imo

Had 1500 on him at prices from 3.5 * 2.5 * 1.9

But have layed the whole lot off

There has been numerous "all in" bankers nailed at Cheltenham in recent years but Dunguib is shaping up to be a monumental punt... dodgy jumper and inexperienced jock must give layers some hope... I know a lot of folk who are in the all in brigade

only fools go all in on a bet imo,

plenty of fools next Tuesday

:^0 yeah i would imagine so, and Wednesday, Thursday and Friday

the jockey will be fine just look at ride he gave horse last year and since as jockey changed tactics to suit horse in its races this year. it wins and lets hope there might be some evens on day

he was EVS today with totesport

As you trial through his form lines from bumpers to last race there is nothin in the race gets near him on form. Facts all back him up too. Irish horses farm this race, everyone agrees yet nothing in Irl can beat him. He has won key grade one trials on the bridle. I have seen all UK races, Get me out of here won the toughest race but that was off a nice weight, his novice form amounts to nothing much. If dunguib ran in champion he'd go off as fav. So handicap wise get me out of here wouldnt be rated near him. Yes the jumping has not been top notch, but he can seriously afford to loose a few lengths at each jump and still win as his engine is such that he wont need to worry about the 5-10l he may loose jumping. Line of form through luska lad, who he has beaten easily in bumpers, ties in champion form. JUmbo Rio second to Luska lad and JR finishes 4l of solwhit, the form is there to win a champion. Two things i will finish with. Look at the bumper form last year. ROP and Quel Esprit both about 10l behind are in the first 4 betting for the 2m5f novice, Shinrock paddy the same in the albert bartlett, morning supreme will be placed in the mares race if she runs. Secondly, look at ATR comments from each race he won, after first run it been unextended or impressive. This is a freak and if he runs to his true ability, he wins handy, as Ruby said, he would win a group 2 on the flat

does anyone know wot time ppower have changed their conditions on this consession

I had 2 £50 bets last night online and it wasnt there then,hopefully 2 bets wont count as abusing it.

An Mhi

I don't think Dunguib can jump like he did at Leopardstown and win. Not only will he lose lengths at each hurdle but he'll also lost his racing position. He'll get shuffled back every time he jumps poorly. Engine and no engine, no horse can afford this luxury! Jumping is the name of the game.

It'll be interesting to see Francome's theory played out, i.e. sore shins. He reckons that because Dunguib lands with his hind legs, its a real sign of sore shins. Makes sense?

why would a trainer run a horse that had soe shins?

or even sore

Fenton reckons he dosen't. Far be it for me to criticise the competence of trainers, but I remember a thread on here two years ago after Fenton had Shirley Casper taken off him. It was interesting the number of forumites who didn't rate him too highly as a trainer.

Francome's claim makes sense! Rear legs landing before front legs is the jist of his reasoning. Certainly makes a lot more sense that the "jumps better off a faster pace" theory.

Didn't back Dunguib on a single. Just did a small enough double on Dunguib-Captain Cee Bee

ah ffs this jumping thing again he jumped fine in previous races and quicker pace will help but look at last years bumper he'll travel all over this lot.

The passionate Irish punters will have smashed into any even money the English bookmakers will have offered on the Spinal Research Supreme Novices Hurdle favourite, so someone will be licking very deep wounds.

If the evidence of the formbook is anything to go by, you would say it is the bookmakers who will take the first kicking of the meeting. The bare facts suggest that Dunguib is a bigger certainty than Gordon Brown on a bender at Bank of England's printing press. But the formbook is wrong, as far as the outcome of this race is concerned, and this is how you figure out why.
Get your partner to stand, sideways on, in a pair of Christian Louboutin high-heeled shoes. [Please note no bigoted politically incorrect reference to wife or girlfriend here.] Then note where the balls of their toes are in relation to their ankles. Directly above them, you will find. Just as Dunguib's ankles are vertically above his hooves.

To discover why this physical conformation is not conducive to being a top hurdler [the angle between the two should be 45 degrees], I now want you to loose school your partner around your sitting room.

Appropriate home-made obstacles for this purpose can be made using your best champagne glasses. If you do not have sufficient numbers of them to avoid a run out, intersperse them with sherry glasses. For other hurdles you could use any Ming china that you can lay your hands on, or small children. The elongated scenes of Venice, which Canaletto painted, are also ideal.

Once your 'hurdles' are ready, line your partner up facing in the right direction, and give them a fairly forceful whack on the bottom.

What happens next will very accurately resemble, for those of you who kept your eyes open, Dunguib trying to jump eight flights of hurdles with 19 other horses getting in his way. The financial consequences, for both you and the Irish punters, will be dire.

Dunguib is such a short price for this race because he would win it without breaking into a sweat if it was a Flat race. And although he has won the hurdle races which he has contested in Ireland this season, they have been a different proposition to the one he now faces.

At Leopardstown, last time out, he was able to scramble over the hurdles in his shambolic way, and then have time to regain his composure because it was a small field and they went a sensible pace. He will get no such breathing space at Prestbury Park. The pace of the race will be fast and furious.

Another issue for Dunguib is that he's ridden from the back of the field. Which does not present too many problems when there are only 10 other runners in the race, but can turn into a nightmare at the back of a big field. Especially if you are not jumping fluently.

This is mission impossible for Dunguib. If you don't believe me, ask 19 neighbours to come around after closing time, dust your partner down and set the hurdles up again.

His hurdle form is far from rock solid.He hasnt beat a horse that would come within an arses roar of winning any kind of festival race.Not saying whether he will win or he wont but hes a bad even money chance.Jockey,trainer,jumping are all worries coupled with the fact that every horse in the race will be running on their merits which is a rarity with a normal even money chance.

I think even money is a good price on him. He is so far ahead of his opposition that he makes many previous even money chances look very poor value. Gambling is all about confidence and I am very confident that he will hurdle sufficiently enough to win while I cannot see your doubts about his connections jimeen. Fenton peaked him for last march and will do so again while brian o' connell has for several years now shown himself to be one the better Irish riders. He is not an easy horse to train and takes plenty of knowing but at this stage in his career nobody has put a foot wrong (including going for the champion) and I cannot for the life of me see any horse getting near him. Over hurdles he has comfortably handled Puyol (MCR winner who had much more experience), Some Present (very good horse on his day) and Fionnegas (an extremely talented horse though will probably only reach his peak over fences) and there isn't a horse in the race next week that will get near him in my view.

Allduck-One has to be worried about the connections,it isnt exactly the dream team now is it.Leaving out Dunguib,Fenton has trained 5 winners this year,O Connell has ridden 3 over hurdles,hardly the statistics of a top combination.On top of that O Connell has never ridden over hurdles at the track and is going to be carrying a massive burden of expectaion from the public.Combine that with the big field,waiting tactics,possibility of shoddy jumping,and even more worrying the lingering rumour(and it isnt just Francome who is suggesting such)that the horse has sore shins.All those reasons would be enough for me to swerve him and he rates a horrible even money chance in my eyes.I quite fancy Fenton wouldnt know if he himself was wearing kids shoes not to mind whether Dunguib has sore shins or not.

I love the Cheltenham and the way that a horse that is clearly a ballpark 50-50 chance to win a race can be called a BANKER :)

Fair enough its not willie mullins/ruby walsh but they do know what they are at. There is no pressure on brian as far as they can see it because he will ride it like just another race and he isn't short of self confidence himself so I dont see it as an issue.People are building the occasion up more than they should be. This is potentially a great horse and they have nothing to be afraid of so why should they feel pressure. Its if I were in the opposition camp that I would be getting worried. Fenton has been around enough good horses in his life to know a thing or two more than some of the people in the stands and if he says the horse is fine then thats good enough for me. Your looking at stats and history and whatever but them parallels are drawn from the typical festival winners. Dunguibs ability far exceeds that of most horses that are ever likely to grace the cotswolds and if he turns up right next week he wont come off the bridle.

AllDuck take a bow totally agree. Some woeful manure bin typed here. For 1 the horse beat Puyol who already pointed out won one of Irelands most comptitive hcp hurdles. Tactically O'Connell has bin excellent and horse doesnt need to be right at back on occasions this year he has taken up running long way from home as they werent going quick enough. As for the jumping which hurdle exactly when mistake was made did he lose momentum? answer none didnt make any difference and anyways his jumping has bin fine last race apart straw clutching again and anyways Menorah and get me out of here were hardly fluent last time out either but no one mentioning that are they? I wonder wud any of ye straw clutchers lay more than 20 euros@ evens? doubt it. Sit back and enjoy a future king.

Viva Pataca,
Francome's 'sore shins' theory is interesting.
The only problem with that theory is that the only hurdle he jumped well in the Deloitte was the final hurdle when he was travelling @ his quickest.
Surely if it was sore shins the horse would have realised this could hurt an awful lot more than the other jumps.
Ruby's theory from the same edition of the 'Morning Line' carries more water. Horse is travelling too well in races & their is too much power going back through his body to his hind legs.
Interestingly he said that it wouldn't necessarily be improved by a faster pace as they went a fair good clip in the Deloitte.

Personally I think he wins. I won't back him odds on, but neither would I lay him @ 1.85+.
I've sometimes not backed in the Supreme & felt like the smartest man around when Tourist Attraction & Ebaziyan won!

All in all what an opener to the festival!!!

2.04 now... getting very backable

Bob can I have some of whatever juice you're on cos that is a great post

Any sign of allduckornodinner ?.Still think O Connell and Fenton are a good combination.

What do you do with him now?
The first time push came to shove for him he didn`t really find. Time of the race much slower than the Champion too.
Another point. French breds are ruling the roost in the important races now. I know Menorah is Irish bred but Dunguib was the superstar needed, and he didn`t deliver. All in all, very disappointing result.

A few were moaning about the jock but I just think he had every chance and ran very flat, lot of flat wallets this morning I reckon.... haammered cee bee in the next

Here I am williw. I called it wrong and happy to admit so. He didn't ride him like he was confident in his hurdling ability and I though he would have rode the same race as last year (i.e. be about eight turning for the descent down the hill). Didnt work out anyway and came up a bit short. I do think they got the tactics a bit wrong though I don't understand how one defeat in what has the signs of a very good novicer hurdle looking at how the race panned out means I should give up on the connections. Did you see the horse yesterday. He was looking perfect and was excellently handled by all around to ensure he stayed calm and while the ride left something to be desired Brian O' Connell is still a very promising rider. If we was to go down your root of thinking (and that of Big Mac who knows as much about jockeyship as a pig does about a holiday) then Tony McCoy should have been jocked off Binocular after last year. It's easy be wise after the event but I didn't notice you forwarding your opinion prior to the race.

*Should read "If we were . . ." above
Grammar gone to pot :)

I'm going to throw in an alternative theory and see what people think. If you watch the race again, coming to the last the horse had his head over to the right. He straightened up again when jumping then hung his head once more after he landed over the last. His ears weren't flat back either so I'm just wondering was he watching and reacting to the crowd? He wouldn't be the first horse to do that when faced with the roar at the last. Many horses have stopped in their tracks when faced with the combination of hill and 50,000 roaring punters. It stopped Pendil from winning a Gold Cup. He came down that hill travelling well and he was definitely close enough if good enough. Call me mad, but I think he was distracted.

lets just some it up as follows.......

Held up at the back

Raced wider than Adam Kondrat used to do

Gave the horse absolutely no cover at all

Did not jump well enough

absolutely no suprise when it emptied out

beaten fair and square NO VALID EXCUSES

Horse is NOT a superstar

Anybody could tell you that Dunguib is a terrific racehorse allduckornodinner.You were the one blowing about how good the jockey and trainer were and they were both massive factors as to why he ultimately met defeat.Thats what you were wrong about,nothing else

What are you trying to say Donegal? Obviously I got it wrong about O'Connell being no worry. He rode a poor race and didn't take the iniative that a more experienced rider like Ruby would have done when the pace was more slack than expected and moved closer earlier. I take issue with your assertion about the trainer though, Fenton had the horse perfectly prepared for Tuesday. If dunguib had been ridden closer to the pace he nearly would have won (though not certain). What I don't understand is your post. What did you mean to say because I don't get the "nothing else" bit?