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sorry bless, i meant to add that i would lump on dunguib too.
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but bless you cant lose
if say on the day there is 24 runners and dunguib goes off 8/13, you could back every other runner and dutch them to guarantee the same return so say we have Get Me Out Of Here 7/1 Oscar Whisky 10/1 Menorah 12/1 Blackstairmountain 14/1 Bellvano 16/1 Peddlers Cross 16/1 Morning Supreme 33/1 Salden Licht 25/1 Flat Out ` 33/1 Loosen My Load ` 33/1 Pepe Simo 33/ Dan Breen 25/1 General Miller 25/1 Manyriverstocross 40/1 Puyol 40/1 Ghizao 25/1 Notus De La Tour 50/1 Dr Whizz 66/1 - Vino Griego 40/1 Adelar 66/1 Some Present 40/1 - Inventor 50/1 surely if we only backed the first 12 in the betting for a total stake( not spreading it around other offices) you would get back about 440 if another horse won and 300 back if dunguib won, and dont forget they guarantee sp/s so powers cant fiddle the sp and the other bookies should really try to get the sp up on the other animals as they take money on dunguib and also hope to punish pp if dunguib loses everybody should do this and hope the smile well and truly comes off the laughing gits face |
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ps. off course dunguib will prob win but you may as well put it down risk free and let paddy take all the risk
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hear hear**gy
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rule4 will apply 02 Mar 13:46
ok ...so if i round up a crew of lads and back every horse (except Dunguib) in the race to win 1000 assuming it'll be 9/1 Bar..making sure none of them spend more than 300..il be quids in. You'll be quids in if Dunguib wins You lose 200 if Dunguib loses All that the special does is get you 5/2 about Dunguib Here's the science! Assume Dunguib is evs With a 20% overround, the remainder of the field is effectively a 1.43 shot* (see below) Say you have a stake of total 1,200 You back Dunguib 500 at evs You spread the other 700 around the field at combined odds of 1.43 to take out (NOT win) 1,000 per runner 2 scenarios 1. Dunguib loses You get 1,000 back from the winning bet (700 stake PLUS 300 winnings) with Paddy Power but you lose 500 from the Dunguib bet Total loss 200 2. Dunguib wins You get 1,000 back from winning bet on Dunguib (500 stake PLUS 500 winnings) BUT you also get the 700 back from Paddy Power from their special Total profit 500 Therefore you are risking the 200 from (worst case) scenario 1 to win a possible 500 in (best case) scenario 2 which is where the 5/2 about Dunguib comes from *: Overround calc Dunguib 2.00 = 50% Field 1.43 = 70% Overall = 120% = 20% overround |
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**gy you can't call it risk free if your only backing 12 out of a field of 24 runners in a NOVICE hurdle which is not unknown to throw up shocks in the past. :^0
Anyway the Magic sign has him now at 4/5 non runner no bet. So its probably a fair chance with the on course bookmakers he will go off around that bearing in mind the on course bookmakers won't be carrying any ante post liabilties on it and have another 25 races to win their money back if Dunguib doesn't suffer the bit of bad luck the bookmakers will need to get it beaten.......Cheers |
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sorry thats all my dutching calculator would go upto to give you the exact figure
we'll know better come the day with how many runners turn up and what kind off overround we have but you can take prices in the morning and if they drift, they're guaranteed too to make the overround more in your favour the fun will be is if dunguib gets backed heavily into 4-7, the others will drift on course for a nice juicy fat sp like i said with dunguib currently about 50% of the book and could go higher, why not have a go for free dosh the mugs mightnt be fit to get near the counter at 1.30 in two weeks time for all the sharks around the powers counters |
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db1974...what does the overound need to be before it becomes a no lose situation...and will it ever get that low?
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To lock in a profit you could have 200 on Dunguib which will show a profit of 200 if he wins
If he loses then you will show a profit of 228.57 So roughly 1/6th of your total stake on Dunguib while spreading the remainder across all other runners |
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^ - assumes total stake of 1,200 (200on Dubguib & 1,000 on all other runners)
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Its free money whatever way you look at it as long as you cover all the bases. Only backing half the field will give you a better return but you are risking a huge loss if some 66/1 shot romps home.
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from the pp blog on website
William Says: March 2nd, 2010 at 1:41 pm I accept your point Tom regarding the 300 limit. However, I was surprised today when attempting to have 100 on Get me out of here, 100 Blackstairsmountain and 100 General Miller in your Baggot Street, I was offered 25 on each. Whatever about Ians point that limits are displayed on a different page, I think it is a bit unfair to promote a special (presumably to get punters into a shop) and then restrict them to 25% of the stated limits, once they have arrived to avail of it. Seems like a bit of a PR exercise, without being prepared to follow through in reality. typical! |
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I'm still waiting on that special Powers had on Dunguib's SP at Cheltnham with the odds on been a near certainity now. The 11/8 they offered was very generous at the time around christmas and cheers to who spotted it on here first as I was amazed they were offering it.
Did anyone else see that Punchestown race course will refund tickets already bought for their festivel if Punchestown wins the RSA chase at Cheltenham. A clever bit of PR again and would be lovely if he does storm home. |
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do it on the day
15 shops in town free bets in the paper at the same time |
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Only five here in Waterford :(
Ill be spending an hour or two driving around that morning. Should be able to make a ton fifty out of it at least |
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whats the catch here. I like my life by two firm rules.
1. there is no such thing as a free lunch 2. if it looks too good to be true it probably is so, whats the catch. looks like a promo to catch the mugs, im a shrewdie, so i am sitting this one out tyvm. I am pretty sure I will have the last laugh. |
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No catch except its bait to get lads into Powers for the start of the festival
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Am i missing something? How can you spread 700 around the other runners to take out a 1000?
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Theres no catch.
What he has said himself is that he was bullied into it at a Cheltenham preview night, by couch, and it sort of just came out that he agreed to it. Its free money if you can judge the book on the morning of the race. Cant see whats to moan about it, maybe hes catching the "mugs" into the shops, I dont care, I'll be there for one race, let other people stay if they so choose. |
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Lets assume theres twenty runners and dunguib sp is 8/11
8/11 dunguib the rest are priced as follows to make a 120%sp book 100@ 9/1 returns 1000 91 @10/1 returns 1000 77 @12/1 returns 1000 47 @20/1 returns 1000 47 @20/1 returns 1000 47 @20/1 returns 1000 29 @33/1 returns 1000 29 @33/1 returns 1000 29 @33/1 returns 1000 20 @50/1 returns 1000 20 @50/1 returns 1000 20 @50/1 returns 1000 15 @66/1 returns 1000 15 @66/1 returns 1000 10 @100/1 returns 1000 10 @100/1 returns 1000 10 @100/1 returns 1000 5 @ 200/1 returns 1000 5 @ 200/1 returns 1000 Your total outlay is approx 630 and you will have a return of 630 if dunguib wins or 1000 if any other horse wins. You can then put 220 on dunguib to return 380 meaning you have total outlay of 850. Return if Dunguib wins is 380 + 630(money back) = 1010 Return if Dunguib loses is 1000. |
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Cheers moneypenny wasnt sure if it was a case of waiting for the day or not as obviously there are still 60 plus entered.
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No its one to exploit on the day of race imo. Dont forget you will have guaranteed odds and doube result concessions on your side on the day also
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What about max refund of 300 per customer
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Different shops..
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Dont set foot in shops myself these days :)
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Byerley Racing 02 Mar 21:02
so, whats the catch. looks like a promo to catch the mugs, im a shrewdie, so i am sitting this one out tyvm. I am pretty sure I will have the last laugh. This time next year you'll be a millionaire I'm sure! |
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Mr Byerley will be if he can convince enough "sharp minds" to share in the opportunity of a lifetime.
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Surely the thinking behind this is that everyone will flock to their shops to avail of this offer.
If Dunguib wins, they pay out/refund all bets. Everybody goes back to the shop to collect their refunds/winnings. They then reinvest some/all of what they collect and quite possibly more during the remainder of the festival, more than likely resulting in a bigger profit for PP. Brilliant marketing if you ask me. If Dunguib loses-even better! |
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It is a fair observation imho, if you want to find an angle on a race being run say tommorrow, go and find an angle on a race, don't bother looking for the one's with the money back specials.
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I probably wont have a bet on the race.
I'm just giving my opinion as to why I think they are offering this concession. |
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Surely PP will be seething if people start labelling this a no bet race.
Like they say in the dragon's den, I'm Out. |
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Fellas in my humble opinion the bookies are going to get a pumping this year, its been a while since there have been around 4-5 dead certs as i feel there is this year.
As for these free bet schemes we all know they're aimed at the gambling public who don't think things through, so lets not argue lol. |
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4-5 dead certs at the Cheltenham Festival. Joe - your surname could prove very apt if you proceed to punt with that belief.
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2008 Bankers
Master Minded Binocular Kasbah Bliss Voy Por Ustedes Kauto Star Cousin Vinny |
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2009 surely??^
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Shirley yes, i was just testing everone's still awake and not too intoxicated.
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Tried to back General Miller e/w at 33s...was told the max I could have on was £2.67 e/w. Thats Two Pounds sixty seven pence.
Enough said. |
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Ballydoyle 03 Mar 12:07
Tried to back General Miller e/w at 33s...was told the max I could have on was £2.67 e/w. Thats Two Pounds sixty seven pence. That's a bit worrying for somebody (ie - me) who plans to traipse around on Tuesday morning to back the field in various shops. Was this in a shop? Are you normally restricted? |
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hats off to paddy, ive a smashing bet to nothing. hip hip
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You should not be betting with your own firm boy!!
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