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Yes its your VIRTUALLY GUARNTEED American Football Free money thread. I've been at this now since Tampa Bay won for me back in 2000 and have NEVER LOST YET. B-)
Okay my strategy and MODUS OPERANDI is first to lay 16 in the field to take out a clear 1000 and try and then to supplement those winnings by Dutching on my FOUR outright picks.
Two from each of the conference which decides who goes to the Superbowl in 2010.
Alright in the past more than an element of luck has saved me from losing my shirt. Last year Arizona, and New England v Carolina were Superbowls I kind celebrated the clock running down on my knees as I pleged to God that I never bet or sin again....... But hell me mother always told me better to be born lucky than beautiful.
Right I've already made my bed now for the 2010 Superbowl so hopefully nows its just down to waiting till the 1st Sunday in Febuary to collect. Here's how I reason it.
MY CODE.
BET means I've backed it.
LAY means I've layed it for around 2500
NEUTRAL....I've layed it to break even about 1500
Anyone with views or better insight, since I don't believe in paying too much attention to the pre-season matches.... is welcome to join the thread.
PRICES QUOTED ARE FOR THE SUPERBOWL while prices in the little summary at the end of each the AFC and NFC the lower prices quoted there are for those two seperate Conference which decides which teams go on to meet in the SUPERBOWL.
LETS TALK THE TALK
Top AFC CONFERENCE teams this year.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 11/2..Three time winners in recent years the Real Madrid of American football. One of my lays last year that paid off handsomely when Tom Brady got injured in the first game and was finished for the season. How well they would have got on with him is hard to say as they did finish 11 wins to 5 losses. Yet failed to make the play-offs. Whether him been around would have made enough difference to win them another Superbowl would seem unlikely. This year the question is how well Brady is going to come back from such a serious injury and how old some of the team are now while some question how much the clean out of backroom staff will effect things. But for me at 5/1 their reasonable odds. They have a solid defence front and a offense which now looks close to 2007 undefeated regular season run. I'm on them anyway for the Superbowl a feat its hard to believe but haven't managed since 2004 . BET
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS 10/1.Surely last chance saloon for most of these guys now. Last year their defence killed them. How many times did the last score of the game go against them? In the past I have made these guys one of my short price foundations for my book. But this year I think I pass on them as lays. As their division the AFC West looks very weak so its hard to see them not making the play-offs at least (since 8 wins were enough for them last year) This time around with Merriman coming back in defence after his knee op its hard to see them not making the play-offs with home advantage in January. But yeah their still must be a question mark over Merriman knee and the Chargers defence but until we see them play against some of the better teams we just have to wait to see... So based on that I've just put a HOLD on them.
PITTSBURG STEELERS.13/1 Last year Winners and for the 2nd time in 4 years just. For me these guys are my No 1 fancy for the AFC and also the Superbowl itself. They are a super price too as for some reason Betfair layers don't fancy them. Normally one of the drawbacks with these guys is they face a tough schedule but this years look sweet enough. For me with little change in personnel apart from wide receiver Nate to Washington from last year. With this in mind and another year behind them the stabilty and experience these guys build up on last year success should now stand to them and even improve them.. I think these guys could well be the next back to back Superbowl Champions since New England in 2005. BET
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 18/1 I have to say I have a soft spot for these guys. I can't but admired Peyton Manning and they have done me well in the past. Even with that aside they now have made 10 consequitive play -offs if my memory is right and usually with 12 wins enough to normally secure some home advantage. On the downside they have lost coach Dungy another guy I was fond of. But a change was needed theirs moves had come too preditable 17 pts scored in the play-offs. So the question for them now is can they get the ball running again along the lines of there 2006 winning Superbowl team. While I don't see them going all the way there too big a price now on Betfair for a Lay. So I will HOLD them for later.
TENNESSEE TITANS 27/1. One of the surprice teams of last year and one that made me a few euro for me with their load of auld vetrans. Doesn't seem to have changed a lot in the off season apart from the loss of Haynesworth to Washington. So could well be there abouts again especially as it seems a lot of these guys contracts finished up this year. I take them to finish ahead of the Texans in the AFC South but behind the Colts.
BALTIMORE RAVENS 27/1 Last year surprise packet coming from a 5 wins from 16 in 2007 to 11 wins in 2008. Probably their best chance to make the play-offs will be on a 10 wins 2nd place to the Steelers in the AFC North. Saying that they have got more room for improvement than most after achieving their 11 wins with a rookie quarterback and a rookie coach. But its some new receivers they probably need most if they are to overcome the Steelers and I don't think they picked them up. Last year it was a case of played Steelers three times lost three times if memory serves me right. NEUTRAL
HOUSTON TEXANS 40/1 In the same division as the Colts, Jags and the Tennessee Titans in the tough AFC South. Started badly last year with 4 losses but won 8 from the last 12 for their second year in a row of 8 wins. Well backed this year to improve on that and while maybe not up to serious Superbowl contender they are some people choice as best outsider for the NFC. With lots of individuals stars in their team. Personally I can't have them their defence was very disappointing last year from memory and while they brought him some wise old heads to tighten it up I'm still doubtfull over how Q/b Schaub will stand up to the full season. I happy to take them on and filled my boots with them. They do well to make the play-offs even as one of the best runners up. LAY
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 43/1 I LAYED these guys big time. They were very disappointing last season, have been there abouts now for the previous two seasons and I be surprised if they achieve any higher than 8 wins and finish any higher than last in the AFC South. True they usually pretty handy in defence but they struggle last year with the offence and team spirit last year was not what their fans would have hoped for. Saying all that they were hit by lots of injuries. But this LAY won't be the one I be losing much sleep over.
NEW YORK JETS.45/1 Came on leaps and bounds last year after Brett Favre did a stint with them. He's now gone and there has been a whole change of mangement set up. Should build on last year even without Favre. But will do well to get 2nd pace off the Dolphins in the AFC east behind the Patriots. I was happy to fill my boots off them. LAY
MIAMI DOLPHINS ..65/1 The schedule hasn't been kind to them so look another who are a serious lay.
CINCINNATI BENGALS..90/1 I see these guys been talked up on the American Forum. I could have them. Only once in the last 6 years have they won more than 8 out of 16. Saying that they are a team in transition but with serious questions marks about their defence they look a must LA
CLEVELAND BROWNS...130/1 Back to the drawing board for these guys after a 10 win 2007 and looking like they were on the up. Fill your boots. LAY hard to see them do anything behind the Steelers and the Ravens the way things look in their camp. LAY
DENVER BRONCHOS..130/1 Runners up in 2006 to Pittsburg in the AFC. A team who used to starts well. But seem inconsistent at the moment. Going through a lot of changes during the off season with Q/B Jay Cutler moving on. Big price on here now so I go NEUTRAL with them and might be one to watch at big prices. 2nd place in the AFC West to the Chargers is not beyond them .....LAY
Of the REST in the AFC. Its hard to see anything going for them with LAYS then of the following..
BUFFALO BILLS..........80/1
OAKLAND RAIDERS.......130/1
KANSAS CHIEFS..........100/1
..................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
DIVISION PREDICTIONS.
In BOLD teams who I expect to make the play-offs.
AFC EAST...................AFC NORTH..................AFC SOUTH....................AFC WEST
PATRIOTS 2nd sd....STEELERS 1st seed...COLTS 3rd sd.......CHARGERS
DOLPHINS...................RAVENS.................TITANS..................BRONCHOS
JETS..........................BENGALS.......................TEXANS.......................CHIEFS
BILLS.........................BROWNS........................JAGUARS......................RAIDERS
SUMMARY, for the AFC.My money will be going on PITTSBURG STEELERS 6/1 and NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 7/2 to win the AFC. I loved to have thrown you up a load of outsiders but I really can't see the AFC Conference thrown up a shock this year. If I had to name a outsider for somebody who wants a little flutter over the long winter evenings I would go with BALTIMORE RAVENS 14/1. Hopefully 1 of these will make the Superbowl my outright fancies for the Superbowl will appear at the end of the Preview.
...............................................................................................................
The NFC CONFERENCE
NEW YORK GIANTS 16/1 How unlucky were these guys last year not to end up back to back Superbowl winners. But for there top receiver shooting himself in the foot at a disco they could well of had. I suppose the beauty about the Giants well beauty and Giants don't really go together. You get what you expect from a team calling themselves New York and Giants. They get the fundamentals right, ie a great running game excellent Line play and discipline. In the end is wasn't only Burress they missed but their defence started showing some cracks. They have worked on that over the summer and hopefully Burress replacement will match up. I think they are a great price at the moment. Well worth a bet for both the Conference and Superbowl imo. BET
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES 17/1...These guys are the Liverpool of the Premership. They were a bit unlucky last year to lose out to Arizona in the play-off. There has been big changes made to their offensive with plenty of young bucks coming in on the request of q/b Mc Nab. There already coming from a solid fountain with that late run last year which included Two wins over the then Superbowl holders the New York Giants that as well as taking them into the play-offs also knocked the Giants out of the play-offs. On the negative side it will probably take time for all the pieces to settle in but if they can jell quickly this will be a serious team that could well go all the way. At the moment they are on the drift on Betfair probably because they aren't firing yet in the pre-season but that to me is to be expected. There now out to 16/1 for the Superbowl its just too big.....BET
DALLAS COWBOYS 20/1..One of these NFC teams that can play like stars one day and duds the next. Last year they started favourites for the NFC and I filled my boots and made me some easy money. Many people think they have got the team but just lack team spirit and leadership. In q/b Tony Romo some reckon if he had been playing for any other team he would have been a all time great by now others who saw him in their defeat in the play-off against the Eagles think differently. Whether this Cowboys will ever develop the Spirit and Leadership needed to win a Superbowl we have to wait and see its not something easy fixed. But who knows maybe they will get it together this year and at 20/1 are a big price for a lay. So I'm putting them on Hold though it hard to see them getting past the Giants or the Eagles in the NFC East. HOLD
MINNESOTA VIKINGS 20/1 These guys are under priced imo. I think the signing of Brett Favre is a big negative to me a band aid for a potentially Superbowl winning team is how one person I heard describe it. True they got a lot of things going for them with probably the elite defence in the NFC and a team with 6 Pro Bowl players they do seem to have a lot of the pieces apart from a q/b but I just have my doubts that Favre at this stage of his career is their man. I would have been much happier to have seen them get the Broncho's Jay Cutler They come into this season off a 10 match winning season and if Favre does the business they won't be far away in January. But like I said for me he not the q/b they need and I'm happy to go with Green Bay to stop their march in the NFC North. LAY
CHICAGO BEARS.25/1 The VIKINGS lost seem to be the Bears gain with Cutler moving to the Bears instead of the Vikings. These guys have always what appears on paper to be the easiest NFL schedule. Which means they usually make the play-off and with home adavantage but I've decided with the questions mark still hanging over their defence I will take a chance on them this year and filled my boots. Both the Vikings and Packers carry high hopes this year of a good season and while I also mentioned doubts over the Bears defence its not a 100% sure Culter will get the best from there offense I'm happy to take them on. LAY
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 25/1. Laying these guys have paid well for me in the past and this season schedule looks one of the best they had for a long time. But look what worked in the past why change now. The main weakness in the past has been on the road they seem to prefer playing indoors and don't like cold weather destinations. They also have question marks over some key guys coming back off injury. On the postive side they do have one of the best offenses in the NFC. But I've filled my boots on them and if Atlanta doesn't do them Carolina hopefully will. LAY
ATLANTA FALCONS ....30/1 Some claim these were the real surprise of 2008 not the Cardinals. Unlike Arizona they hadn't a proven q/b and two top level wide recivers. The question now is can they have two winning seasons in a row. A feat they have struggled to do in the past. There are many doubts about them apart from been a very young and unexperience team questions marks still hang over their defence. How quick their offense can make the Transition on the learning curve will probably decide these guys fate. But I decided to take a chance on went for these guys to win NFC South and to pip well fancied New Orleans and Carolina.
GREEN BAY PACKERS 33/1 These guys are live outsiders for the NFC. Last year was a disaster going from a 13 win season to a 6 win season. True they lost long term q/b Brett Favre between 2007 and 2008. But if memory serves me right a lot of last season losses were by short margins. Anyway since then they have apparently sacked the bulk of their defence. 2007 showed they weren't far off and with Michael Vicks joining them after his short spell in prision it should give them a bit of extra BITE. I'm taking them to win the NFC North and upset the Vikings and Bears fan on their way....HOLD
ARIZONA CARDINAL 33/1 Last season surprise finalist and coming from a weak NFC West look sure to be their about again now they have got the taste for it and maybe more importanly the confidence. It didn't look good their pre-season for them with both q/b Wagner and wide receiver Boden looking to get out. Happily they both settles their differences and with plenty of young blood in the team we might well see a case of deja vu. HOLD
CAROLINA PANTHERS..33/1 Getting quietly backed since pre-season has started. Looked one of the best team in the NFC last year until their collapse against Arizona. Their defence got the blame for that defeat. In the past they have been known for their strong defence especially when you think back to when they were runners-up in 2005. Whether they have corrected their weakness in defence we have to wait and see but what puts me off them is q/b Delhomme I just don't see taking this team to a Superbowl. LAY
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 50/1...Runner up three years ago and all downhill since. Had a mare of a season last year in probably the easiest divison in the NFC. This year doesn't look like it will be any better for them with Arizona their main divison rivals going from strength to strength. They do well to even get 2nd place in the East this year imo. LAY
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS 100/1 Very disappointing last season when from division contenders to also rans very quickly. They need a q/b but failed to secure one in the off season. LAY
WASHINGTON REDSKINS 55/1 These guys made a bit of a splash during the off -season by signing up Haynesworth to shore up there defence along with a promising first round draft pick in Brian Orakpo. But most people would say their problem is more in offence than defence. They tried to sign a new quarterback but failed while some would say a few new receivers wouldn't have went astray. Hard to see them do anything but struggle even with the signing of Haynesworth. LAY for me.
OF THE OTHER 3 IN THE NFC its hard to see any reason why they should be around at the finish. So LAY.
SAN FRANCISCO 49s 85/1.
ST LOUIS RAMS........150/1
DETROIT LIONS.....300/1
DIVISION PREDICTIONS.
NFC EAST........................NFC NORTH..........NFC SOUTH....................NFC WEST
GIANTS 1st seed .PACKERS 3nd seed.. FALCONS. 4th . CARDINALS 2nd
EAGLES.....................VIKINGS................PANTHERS.........SAN FRANCISCO 49s
COWBOYS........................BEARS...........NEW ORLEANS SAINTS................ SEAHAWKS
REDSKINS........................DETROIT LIONS.....BUCCANEERS...............SAINT LOUIS RAMS
Summary for the NFC I'm with the NEW YORK GIANTS 7/1 and the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES 7/1. But I wouldn't put anybody off looking for a decent long shot the GREEN BAY PACKERS at 14/1.
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PS......HAVE I MISSED ANY TEAMS WORTH A MENTION IN EITHER LEAGUES ? :(
OVERALL SUPERBOWL SUMMARY....
I can't say I really expect any big shocks this season, some as I said fancy the Vikings, Carolina, New Orleans and the Bears but I'm more than happy going along with PITTSBURGH STEELERS 13/1 NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 11/2 NEW YORK GIANTS 16/1 and PHILADELPHIA EAGLES 17/1 for the Super bowl. I reckon you be guaranteed to have a lot of fun on the way and hopefully even a BIG PAYOUT come the end of it and also maybe landing 1 or two acca`s some RAINY COLD SUNDAY EVENING along the way. All leading in too one big night of celebrating when two of our teams match up in this years Super Bowl.
TALK THE TALK WALK THE WALK Some of you guys requested a look at my bets and lays in these previews so since I have now exited the market for the time been with the book I've wanted,
here goes. B-)
Lay Backer's
Odds Backer's
Stake Payout Liability
New England Patriots 6 £473.67 £2,842.02 £2,368.35
Ref: Bet matched:
Philadelphia Eagles 14 £130.84 £1,831.76 £1,700.92
Ref: Bet matched:
Minnesota Vikings 22.02 £138.38 £3,047.02 £2,908.64
Ref: Bet matched:
New Orleans Saints 27.54 £110.97 £3,056.66 £2,945.69
Ref: Bet matched:
Chicago Bears 27.3 £112.00 £3,057.17 £2,945.17
Ref: Bet matched:
Baltimore Ravens 30.86 £78.00 £2,407.34 £2,329.34
Ref: Bet matched:
Carolina Panthers 33.46 £89.00 £2,978.00 £2,889.00
Ref: Bet matched:
Atlanta Falcons 32 £78.00 £2,496.00 £2,418.00
Ref: Bet matched:
Jacksonville Jaguars 43.94 £68.00 £2,988.00 £2,920.00
Ref: Bet matched:
Houston Texans 46.62 £64.44 £3,004.34 £2,939.90
Ref: Bet matched:
New York Jets 53.77 £57.00 £3,065.00 £3,008.00
Ref: Bet matched:
Washington Redskins 60.39 £49.81 £3,008.10 £2,958.29
Ref: Bet matched:
Miami Dolphins 67.67 £44.89 £3,037.85 £2,992.96
Ref: Bet matched:
Seattle Seahawks 64.26 £47.64 £3,061.55 £3,013.91
Ref: Bet matched:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 77.42 £38.00 £2,942.05 £2,904.05
Ref: Bet matched:
San Francisco 49ers 67.86 £44.50 £3,019.80 £2,975.30
Ref: Bet matched:
Buffalo Bills 73.9 £41.00 £3,030.00 £2,989.00
Ref: Bet matched:
Kansas City Chiefs 88.44 £33.06 £2,923.95 £2,890.89
Ref: Bet matched:
Cincinnati Bengals 118.11 £25.40 £3,000.00 £2,974.60
Ref: Bet matched:
Denver Broncos 93.02 £9.35 £869.70 £860.35
Ref: Bet matched:
Oakland Raiders 179.92 £16.58 £2,983.10 £2,966.52
Ref: Bet matched:
Cleveland Browns 189.1 £15.83 £2,993.40 £2,977.57
Ref: Bet matched:
St Louis Rams 220.28 £15.50 £3,414.30 £3,398.80
Ref: Bet matched:
Detroit Lions 233.67 £12.53 £2,927.90 £2,915.37
Ref: Bet matched:
£1,873.21
..................................................................................................................
Back Your
Odds Your
Stake Your
Profit
New England Patriots 6.38 £599.52 £3,225.90
Ref: Bet matched:
Pittsburgh Steelers 13 £65.00 £780.00
Ref: Bet matched:
New York Giants 18.09 £43.85 £749.25
Ref: Bet matched:
Philadelphia Eagles 15.49 £185.28 £2,685.52
OPINIONS WELCOMED.....Bless you haven't a f#king CLUE might as well get that one out of the way myself. and MICHAEL VICKS wasn't it MICHAEL VICKER for Green Bay. Bless...... I thought I might as well get that one out of the way. :^0
GOOD LUCK anybody who gives it a go........BLESS
PS...Your FREE MONEY is there if you can just decide is BLESS LUCK of 9 winning years finally going to run out or will it be a decade of BLISS for BLESS......Let me know what you decided please. :^0
Okay my strategy and MODUS OPERANDI is first to lay 16 in the field to take out a clear 1000 and try and then to supplement those winnings by Dutching on my FOUR outright picks.
Two from each of the conference which decides who goes to the Superbowl in 2010.
Alright in the past more than an element of luck has saved me from losing my shirt. Last year Arizona, and New England v Carolina were Superbowls I kind celebrated the clock running down on my knees as I pleged to God that I never bet or sin again....... But hell me mother always told me better to be born lucky than beautiful.
Right I've already made my bed now for the 2010 Superbowl so hopefully nows its just down to waiting till the 1st Sunday in Febuary to collect. Here's how I reason it.
MY CODE.
BET means I've backed it.
LAY means I've layed it for around 2500
NEUTRAL....I've layed it to break even about 1500
Anyone with views or better insight, since I don't believe in paying too much attention to the pre-season matches.... is welcome to join the thread.
PRICES QUOTED ARE FOR THE SUPERBOWL while prices in the little summary at the end of each the AFC and NFC the lower prices quoted there are for those two seperate Conference which decides which teams go on to meet in the SUPERBOWL.
LETS TALK THE TALK
Top AFC CONFERENCE teams this year.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 11/2..Three time winners in recent years the Real Madrid of American football. One of my lays last year that paid off handsomely when Tom Brady got injured in the first game and was finished for the season. How well they would have got on with him is hard to say as they did finish 11 wins to 5 losses. Yet failed to make the play-offs. Whether him been around would have made enough difference to win them another Superbowl would seem unlikely. This year the question is how well Brady is going to come back from such a serious injury and how old some of the team are now while some question how much the clean out of backroom staff will effect things. But for me at 5/1 their reasonable odds. They have a solid defence front and a offense which now looks close to 2007 undefeated regular season run. I'm on them anyway for the Superbowl a feat its hard to believe but haven't managed since 2004 . BET
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS 10/1.Surely last chance saloon for most of these guys now. Last year their defence killed them. How many times did the last score of the game go against them? In the past I have made these guys one of my short price foundations for my book. But this year I think I pass on them as lays. As their division the AFC West looks very weak so its hard to see them not making the play-offs at least (since 8 wins were enough for them last year) This time around with Merriman coming back in defence after his knee op its hard to see them not making the play-offs with home advantage in January. But yeah their still must be a question mark over Merriman knee and the Chargers defence but until we see them play against some of the better teams we just have to wait to see... So based on that I've just put a HOLD on them.
PITTSBURG STEELERS.13/1 Last year Winners and for the 2nd time in 4 years just. For me these guys are my No 1 fancy for the AFC and also the Superbowl itself. They are a super price too as for some reason Betfair layers don't fancy them. Normally one of the drawbacks with these guys is they face a tough schedule but this years look sweet enough. For me with little change in personnel apart from wide receiver Nate to Washington from last year. With this in mind and another year behind them the stabilty and experience these guys build up on last year success should now stand to them and even improve them.. I think these guys could well be the next back to back Superbowl Champions since New England in 2005. BET
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 18/1 I have to say I have a soft spot for these guys. I can't but admired Peyton Manning and they have done me well in the past. Even with that aside they now have made 10 consequitive play -offs if my memory is right and usually with 12 wins enough to normally secure some home advantage. On the downside they have lost coach Dungy another guy I was fond of. But a change was needed theirs moves had come too preditable 17 pts scored in the play-offs. So the question for them now is can they get the ball running again along the lines of there 2006 winning Superbowl team. While I don't see them going all the way there too big a price now on Betfair for a Lay. So I will HOLD them for later.
TENNESSEE TITANS 27/1. One of the surprice teams of last year and one that made me a few euro for me with their load of auld vetrans. Doesn't seem to have changed a lot in the off season apart from the loss of Haynesworth to Washington. So could well be there abouts again especially as it seems a lot of these guys contracts finished up this year. I take them to finish ahead of the Texans in the AFC South but behind the Colts.
BALTIMORE RAVENS 27/1 Last year surprise packet coming from a 5 wins from 16 in 2007 to 11 wins in 2008. Probably their best chance to make the play-offs will be on a 10 wins 2nd place to the Steelers in the AFC North. Saying that they have got more room for improvement than most after achieving their 11 wins with a rookie quarterback and a rookie coach. But its some new receivers they probably need most if they are to overcome the Steelers and I don't think they picked them up. Last year it was a case of played Steelers three times lost three times if memory serves me right. NEUTRAL
HOUSTON TEXANS 40/1 In the same division as the Colts, Jags and the Tennessee Titans in the tough AFC South. Started badly last year with 4 losses but won 8 from the last 12 for their second year in a row of 8 wins. Well backed this year to improve on that and while maybe not up to serious Superbowl contender they are some people choice as best outsider for the NFC. With lots of individuals stars in their team. Personally I can't have them their defence was very disappointing last year from memory and while they brought him some wise old heads to tighten it up I'm still doubtfull over how Q/b Schaub will stand up to the full season. I happy to take them on and filled my boots with them. They do well to make the play-offs even as one of the best runners up. LAY
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 43/1 I LAYED these guys big time. They were very disappointing last season, have been there abouts now for the previous two seasons and I be surprised if they achieve any higher than 8 wins and finish any higher than last in the AFC South. True they usually pretty handy in defence but they struggle last year with the offence and team spirit last year was not what their fans would have hoped for. Saying all that they were hit by lots of injuries. But this LAY won't be the one I be losing much sleep over.
NEW YORK JETS.45/1 Came on leaps and bounds last year after Brett Favre did a stint with them. He's now gone and there has been a whole change of mangement set up. Should build on last year even without Favre. But will do well to get 2nd pace off the Dolphins in the AFC east behind the Patriots. I was happy to fill my boots off them. LAY
MIAMI DOLPHINS ..65/1 The schedule hasn't been kind to them so look another who are a serious lay.
CINCINNATI BENGALS..90/1 I see these guys been talked up on the American Forum. I could have them. Only once in the last 6 years have they won more than 8 out of 16. Saying that they are a team in transition but with serious questions marks about their defence they look a must LA
CLEVELAND BROWNS...130/1 Back to the drawing board for these guys after a 10 win 2007 and looking like they were on the up. Fill your boots. LAY hard to see them do anything behind the Steelers and the Ravens the way things look in their camp. LAY
DENVER BRONCHOS..130/1 Runners up in 2006 to Pittsburg in the AFC. A team who used to starts well. But seem inconsistent at the moment. Going through a lot of changes during the off season with Q/B Jay Cutler moving on. Big price on here now so I go NEUTRAL with them and might be one to watch at big prices. 2nd place in the AFC West to the Chargers is not beyond them .....LAY
Of the REST in the AFC. Its hard to see anything going for them with LAYS then of the following..
BUFFALO BILLS..........80/1
OAKLAND RAIDERS.......130/1
KANSAS CHIEFS..........100/1
..................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
DIVISION PREDICTIONS.
In BOLD teams who I expect to make the play-offs.
AFC EAST...................AFC NORTH..................AFC SOUTH....................AFC WEST
PATRIOTS 2nd sd....STEELERS 1st seed...COLTS 3rd sd.......CHARGERS
DOLPHINS...................RAVENS.................TITANS..................BRONCHOS
JETS..........................BENGALS.......................TEXANS.......................CHIEFS
BILLS.........................BROWNS........................JAGUARS......................RAIDERS
SUMMARY, for the AFC.My money will be going on PITTSBURG STEELERS 6/1 and NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 7/2 to win the AFC. I loved to have thrown you up a load of outsiders but I really can't see the AFC Conference thrown up a shock this year. If I had to name a outsider for somebody who wants a little flutter over the long winter evenings I would go with BALTIMORE RAVENS 14/1. Hopefully 1 of these will make the Superbowl my outright fancies for the Superbowl will appear at the end of the Preview.
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The NFC CONFERENCE
NEW YORK GIANTS 16/1 How unlucky were these guys last year not to end up back to back Superbowl winners. But for there top receiver shooting himself in the foot at a disco they could well of had. I suppose the beauty about the Giants well beauty and Giants don't really go together. You get what you expect from a team calling themselves New York and Giants. They get the fundamentals right, ie a great running game excellent Line play and discipline. In the end is wasn't only Burress they missed but their defence started showing some cracks. They have worked on that over the summer and hopefully Burress replacement will match up. I think they are a great price at the moment. Well worth a bet for both the Conference and Superbowl imo. BET
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES 17/1...These guys are the Liverpool of the Premership. They were a bit unlucky last year to lose out to Arizona in the play-off. There has been big changes made to their offensive with plenty of young bucks coming in on the request of q/b Mc Nab. There already coming from a solid fountain with that late run last year which included Two wins over the then Superbowl holders the New York Giants that as well as taking them into the play-offs also knocked the Giants out of the play-offs. On the negative side it will probably take time for all the pieces to settle in but if they can jell quickly this will be a serious team that could well go all the way. At the moment they are on the drift on Betfair probably because they aren't firing yet in the pre-season but that to me is to be expected. There now out to 16/1 for the Superbowl its just too big.....BET
DALLAS COWBOYS 20/1..One of these NFC teams that can play like stars one day and duds the next. Last year they started favourites for the NFC and I filled my boots and made me some easy money. Many people think they have got the team but just lack team spirit and leadership. In q/b Tony Romo some reckon if he had been playing for any other team he would have been a all time great by now others who saw him in their defeat in the play-off against the Eagles think differently. Whether this Cowboys will ever develop the Spirit and Leadership needed to win a Superbowl we have to wait and see its not something easy fixed. But who knows maybe they will get it together this year and at 20/1 are a big price for a lay. So I'm putting them on Hold though it hard to see them getting past the Giants or the Eagles in the NFC East. HOLD
MINNESOTA VIKINGS 20/1 These guys are under priced imo. I think the signing of Brett Favre is a big negative to me a band aid for a potentially Superbowl winning team is how one person I heard describe it. True they got a lot of things going for them with probably the elite defence in the NFC and a team with 6 Pro Bowl players they do seem to have a lot of the pieces apart from a q/b but I just have my doubts that Favre at this stage of his career is their man. I would have been much happier to have seen them get the Broncho's Jay Cutler They come into this season off a 10 match winning season and if Favre does the business they won't be far away in January. But like I said for me he not the q/b they need and I'm happy to go with Green Bay to stop their march in the NFC North. LAY
CHICAGO BEARS.25/1 The VIKINGS lost seem to be the Bears gain with Cutler moving to the Bears instead of the Vikings. These guys have always what appears on paper to be the easiest NFL schedule. Which means they usually make the play-off and with home adavantage but I've decided with the questions mark still hanging over their defence I will take a chance on them this year and filled my boots. Both the Vikings and Packers carry high hopes this year of a good season and while I also mentioned doubts over the Bears defence its not a 100% sure Culter will get the best from there offense I'm happy to take them on. LAY
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 25/1. Laying these guys have paid well for me in the past and this season schedule looks one of the best they had for a long time. But look what worked in the past why change now. The main weakness in the past has been on the road they seem to prefer playing indoors and don't like cold weather destinations. They also have question marks over some key guys coming back off injury. On the postive side they do have one of the best offenses in the NFC. But I've filled my boots on them and if Atlanta doesn't do them Carolina hopefully will. LAY
ATLANTA FALCONS ....30/1 Some claim these were the real surprise of 2008 not the Cardinals. Unlike Arizona they hadn't a proven q/b and two top level wide recivers. The question now is can they have two winning seasons in a row. A feat they have struggled to do in the past. There are many doubts about them apart from been a very young and unexperience team questions marks still hang over their defence. How quick their offense can make the Transition on the learning curve will probably decide these guys fate. But I decided to take a chance on went for these guys to win NFC South and to pip well fancied New Orleans and Carolina.
GREEN BAY PACKERS 33/1 These guys are live outsiders for the NFC. Last year was a disaster going from a 13 win season to a 6 win season. True they lost long term q/b Brett Favre between 2007 and 2008. But if memory serves me right a lot of last season losses were by short margins. Anyway since then they have apparently sacked the bulk of their defence. 2007 showed they weren't far off and with Michael Vicks joining them after his short spell in prision it should give them a bit of extra BITE. I'm taking them to win the NFC North and upset the Vikings and Bears fan on their way....HOLD
ARIZONA CARDINAL 33/1 Last season surprise finalist and coming from a weak NFC West look sure to be their about again now they have got the taste for it and maybe more importanly the confidence. It didn't look good their pre-season for them with both q/b Wagner and wide receiver Boden looking to get out. Happily they both settles their differences and with plenty of young blood in the team we might well see a case of deja vu. HOLD
CAROLINA PANTHERS..33/1 Getting quietly backed since pre-season has started. Looked one of the best team in the NFC last year until their collapse against Arizona. Their defence got the blame for that defeat. In the past they have been known for their strong defence especially when you think back to when they were runners-up in 2005. Whether they have corrected their weakness in defence we have to wait and see but what puts me off them is q/b Delhomme I just don't see taking this team to a Superbowl. LAY
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 50/1...Runner up three years ago and all downhill since. Had a mare of a season last year in probably the easiest divison in the NFC. This year doesn't look like it will be any better for them with Arizona their main divison rivals going from strength to strength. They do well to even get 2nd place in the East this year imo. LAY
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS 100/1 Very disappointing last season when from division contenders to also rans very quickly. They need a q/b but failed to secure one in the off season. LAY
WASHINGTON REDSKINS 55/1 These guys made a bit of a splash during the off -season by signing up Haynesworth to shore up there defence along with a promising first round draft pick in Brian Orakpo. But most people would say their problem is more in offence than defence. They tried to sign a new quarterback but failed while some would say a few new receivers wouldn't have went astray. Hard to see them do anything but struggle even with the signing of Haynesworth. LAY for me.
OF THE OTHER 3 IN THE NFC its hard to see any reason why they should be around at the finish. So LAY.
SAN FRANCISCO 49s 85/1.
ST LOUIS RAMS........150/1
DETROIT LIONS.....300/1
DIVISION PREDICTIONS.
NFC EAST........................NFC NORTH..........NFC SOUTH....................NFC WEST
GIANTS 1st seed .PACKERS 3nd seed.. FALCONS. 4th . CARDINALS 2nd
EAGLES.....................VIKINGS................PANTHERS.........SAN FRANCISCO 49s
COWBOYS........................BEARS...........NEW ORLEANS SAINTS................ SEAHAWKS
REDSKINS........................DETROIT LIONS.....BUCCANEERS...............SAINT LOUIS RAMS
Summary for the NFC I'm with the NEW YORK GIANTS 7/1 and the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES 7/1. But I wouldn't put anybody off looking for a decent long shot the GREEN BAY PACKERS at 14/1.
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PS......HAVE I MISSED ANY TEAMS WORTH A MENTION IN EITHER LEAGUES ? :(
OVERALL SUPERBOWL SUMMARY....
I can't say I really expect any big shocks this season, some as I said fancy the Vikings, Carolina, New Orleans and the Bears but I'm more than happy going along with PITTSBURGH STEELERS 13/1 NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 11/2 NEW YORK GIANTS 16/1 and PHILADELPHIA EAGLES 17/1 for the Super bowl. I reckon you be guaranteed to have a lot of fun on the way and hopefully even a BIG PAYOUT come the end of it and also maybe landing 1 or two acca`s some RAINY COLD SUNDAY EVENING along the way. All leading in too one big night of celebrating when two of our teams match up in this years Super Bowl.
TALK THE TALK WALK THE WALK Some of you guys requested a look at my bets and lays in these previews so since I have now exited the market for the time been with the book I've wanted,
here goes. B-)
Lay Backer's
Odds Backer's
Stake Payout Liability
New England Patriots 6 £473.67 £2,842.02 £2,368.35
Ref: Bet matched:
Philadelphia Eagles 14 £130.84 £1,831.76 £1,700.92
Ref: Bet matched:
Minnesota Vikings 22.02 £138.38 £3,047.02 £2,908.64
Ref: Bet matched:
New Orleans Saints 27.54 £110.97 £3,056.66 £2,945.69
Ref: Bet matched:
Chicago Bears 27.3 £112.00 £3,057.17 £2,945.17
Ref: Bet matched:
Baltimore Ravens 30.86 £78.00 £2,407.34 £2,329.34
Ref: Bet matched:
Carolina Panthers 33.46 £89.00 £2,978.00 £2,889.00
Ref: Bet matched:
Atlanta Falcons 32 £78.00 £2,496.00 £2,418.00
Ref: Bet matched:
Jacksonville Jaguars 43.94 £68.00 £2,988.00 £2,920.00
Ref: Bet matched:
Houston Texans 46.62 £64.44 £3,004.34 £2,939.90
Ref: Bet matched:
New York Jets 53.77 £57.00 £3,065.00 £3,008.00
Ref: Bet matched:
Washington Redskins 60.39 £49.81 £3,008.10 £2,958.29
Ref: Bet matched:
Miami Dolphins 67.67 £44.89 £3,037.85 £2,992.96
Ref: Bet matched:
Seattle Seahawks 64.26 £47.64 £3,061.55 £3,013.91
Ref: Bet matched:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 77.42 £38.00 £2,942.05 £2,904.05
Ref: Bet matched:
San Francisco 49ers 67.86 £44.50 £3,019.80 £2,975.30
Ref: Bet matched:
Buffalo Bills 73.9 £41.00 £3,030.00 £2,989.00
Ref: Bet matched:
Kansas City Chiefs 88.44 £33.06 £2,923.95 £2,890.89
Ref: Bet matched:
Cincinnati Bengals 118.11 £25.40 £3,000.00 £2,974.60
Ref: Bet matched:
Denver Broncos 93.02 £9.35 £869.70 £860.35
Ref: Bet matched:
Oakland Raiders 179.92 £16.58 £2,983.10 £2,966.52
Ref: Bet matched:
Cleveland Browns 189.1 £15.83 £2,993.40 £2,977.57
Ref: Bet matched:
St Louis Rams 220.28 £15.50 £3,414.30 £3,398.80
Ref: Bet matched:
Detroit Lions 233.67 £12.53 £2,927.90 £2,915.37
Ref: Bet matched:
£1,873.21
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Back Your
Odds Your
Stake Your
Profit
New England Patriots 6.38 £599.52 £3,225.90
Ref: Bet matched:
Pittsburgh Steelers 13 £65.00 £780.00
Ref: Bet matched:
New York Giants 18.09 £43.85 £749.25
Ref: Bet matched:
Philadelphia Eagles 15.49 £185.28 £2,685.52
OPINIONS WELCOMED.....Bless you haven't a f#king CLUE might as well get that one out of the way myself. and MICHAEL VICKS wasn't it MICHAEL VICKER for Green Bay. Bless...... I thought I might as well get that one out of the way. :^0
GOOD LUCK anybody who gives it a go........BLESS
PS...Your FREE MONEY is there if you can just decide is BLESS LUCK of 9 winning years finally going to run out or will it be a decade of BLISS for BLESS......Let me know what you decided please. :^0
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Replies: 67
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great preview mate.. cant wait for it to start.. like the eagle and falcons too and titans could be value as well. patriots and steelers definitely the standard bearers
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Great Preview Bless'....Some amount of work....Good Luck to ya!
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Bless what do you do and where do you find the time to put this much work in?
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Go EAGLES B-)
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:0 Bless
Some amount of work in that! For wat its worth (no big write up) ;) im on The Chargers @ 12/1 and The Saints @ 25/1, gl |
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WELL BRED...I'm a English grammar and spelling teacher I thought my thread would have showed that. :0 :^0
As for the preview I do them for a few reasons really. Mostly to make myself do the homework for what I'm betting on. As it does pay me in the long term if I know in advance what I need to watch out for and unless you do the research before hand your unlikely to see anything that everyone else by now hasn't already seen. By putting it down in writing here it helps me to think it true as well as highlight any gaps I might have missed or glossed over. As the boys on here are all quite happy to show you them even if often its not in such a nice way. :( But I suppose at the end of the day I'm just a mean git and hate to think that went I do lose my money by giving it away easy. The research makes that more unlikely. :D As to what I do I'm basically a full timer on here and eventually hope to use the experience I've build up here over the years and take it into the stockmarket and become a stockmarket trader. Especially if Betfair Premiun Charges keep on going the way they are.......Cheers |
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my bets for d Superbowl will be Philadelphia Eagles, San Diego Chargers and New Orleans Saints :D
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:0 great minds pf ;\
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im a gluting for punishment re. the Chargers and Saints :|, Eagles are my team thought they should of done it last year, they were hot going into the playoffs and should of beat Arizona (was a sad night in the PF house)
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bless thanks for the detailed response. would love to be full time some day too.
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great post bless. although, are some of ur picks not a bit obvious, ie mostly favs & 2nd favs. well anyway, good luck. everyones entitled to their opinion. for what its worth, i fancy the cowboys to break out of the traps early again as usual with a good winning record and will probably have a patriotic punt on the niners again at large prices.
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There is some great prices going around saying that I don't think the Chargers is one of them. Their price is based on the likehood they can't put make the play-off coming from that division. But serious question marks remain over their defence.
New Orleans seems fairy prices at 25/1 if they can get into the play-off they could well end up low single figures. As for the Eagles I don't really understand the drift myself. I had them up at 13/1 for padding and it got wiped with the backer leaving up money. A few weeks later we're now going 18/1 on Betfair which I took some of. I don't really understand why like I said in the preview they are still fitting the pieces so its a bit early to expect them to jell in time for the pre-season stuff. Anyone know why they are drifting especially with the New York Giants been pretty friendless in the market as well?......Cheers |
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Hi Big Layer....I didn't really see anything that stood out this season at big prices. Especially when the proven teams are so long ie the Giants 16/1 and the Eagles 17/1.
The alternatives are Arizona 28/1, Vikings 20/1, Bears 25/1and the Partners 25/1. But their plenty close enough in the betting now to the likes of the New York Giants. It often pays to try and not be too smart when it comes to Sports Betting imo and I've a feeling this year could echo that opinion......Cheers |
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The colts have a great chance this year , massive price aswell. And the Pats,SD have obvious chances. Cant see the Steelers having enough this year tbh. And outside chances for Jets and Packers
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ROMA....What have you got against the Steelers? Two times winners in 4 years and now with what looks the easiest schedule they had for a few years which could see them going into the play-offs as No 1 seeds.
12/1 is a big price for a defending Champion who didn't lose any of their players during the off season. You imagine that stability and expereince of been together in some tough battles last season when some rebuilding was going on will only improve their chances. Your not inclined to agree though? :0 .....Cheers |
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Any thoughts on the Rose of Tralee Bless?
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Steelers are in the Ravens div right??I dont rule the ravens out , I think they have a good chance of topping div. But the steelers had a great season fair enough but at the same time alot of the top teams were having probelms, they may have won anyway but im not sure. The steelers defence carries their offence and imo when you come up against the like of the Colts,Pats,Chargers etc. you need to score a good few points and I dont think they can. Also never liked Ben as a QB think he is more of a liability then a positive. Ok they may win div so it could be a trading chance but I see better teams out there than the steelers
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Come on IRISH RO. Don't tell us in a year where San Diego Chargers is maybe only Two games in the play-offs away from the Superbowl they probably have 7 wins in the bags by the end of October or the 1st week in November.Your not going to go on record and shout to us the merits of Philip Rivers to be included as a all time great q/b.
Now you have Merrieman back in defence and a fit again Tomlison in offence I thought you be shouting from the roof tops the chances of the Chargers. Since you done it every other year when they were out with the washing. Don't tell you lost faith in your team, not this year of all years. :0 .............................................................................................................. ROMA. Yeah fair enough. The Bookies wouldn't be going 11/2 the field if we could make it clear cut on ruling out or in any team.......I'm looking forward to seen the Packers I'm hoping for a good run from them this season though 4 out of their first 6 games are away including to Dallas and New Orleans and the Eagles away is there 8th game. OUCH :0 |
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i bet the eagle to win it last year and will be sticking with them again, if mcnabb stays healthy they will go far and they did a good job in the offseason drafting and trading. They have a very favourable start to the season with quite a few home games to get them on a roll.
Eagles to win superbowl @17.00 bf |
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Bless Re eagles. id say the drift on the eagles
was due to a couple of injuries and the loss of the de-coordinatror. I still think they are overpriced because i fancy them to win their division. NYG lost a third of their run team and the wide recievers didnt do a whole lot after Plaxico went nuts! They did draft a pretty useful wide reciever but Philly drafted a better one!! And dallas are just one big soap opera. Plus they are in a new stadium aswell so could take time to gel at home. After that i do like green bay to win their division aswell and i fancy NY Jets to get into the play offs. Maybe not as division champs because tom terrific is back but should get the necesaary wins. They Would have strolled into the play offs last year if favre didnt go interception crazy late last year. Rookie QB and new coach but Rex done some great things at the ravens and if sanchez gets the nod he could do pretty well. |
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Alright Bless-was in a bit of rush earlier so more concerned about getting some last minute info on the rose then confirming that the Chargers would indeed win this years superbowl! ;)
Think its a given that the Chargers have had an offence to win a superbowl over the last few years but have had to deal with injuries to the big 3 of Rivers, LT and Gates when it counted most in the playoffs. Last year the defense was awful up to mid December when a change of defensive coordinater to ex bears man Ron riveira halted the slide. Since then the defense has steadied and the great 'Lights out' Merriman is back!! Chargers were 3rd last in time on the field for an offense last season yet Rivers and co were 4th best in yardage gained-any improvement in the former in a poor division and the Chargers have huge potential to realise the (my) dream :) Outsiders for me are the Redskins and the seahawks but no major conviction on either. Double up the French rose and the Chargers for the superbowl and make poverty history ;) |
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Hi KELLY a interesting summary. I suppose one of the reasons too that the Eagles are easy to bet is the NFC EAST is a so called division of death with only 1 team guanteed to come out of the Giants, Eagles, Cowboys, and Redskins. So it often worth a layers while in doing the opposite to me and filling his books on all four for the Superbowl in the hope that one only survives it and then gets stopped further along the way.
While I avoided that temptation is I think maybe the Giants and the Eagles will make it one as best runners up. What you said about the Cowboys is interesting too. Normally I take these guys on as their play-off record is sh1te. I thinks its 1 wins now in 7 years or maybe worse. But 21/1 is a decent price on a team who has a good nucleus of talent through out its ranks. So I was torn between laying them or the Vikings at 20/1 to make up my book. Like the NFC EAST the NFC NORTH is also a group of death when compared to the WEST. So I decided to go after the Vikings and (Favvre) and lay them all in that division, New Orleans, Bears, and Lions since I reckon whoever wins it will be on the road in the 2nd round of the play-offs. Who wanted to back the Lions after 16 out of 16 losses last year God only knows but I filled on them. ...So we see soon did I take the right option. Not sure what to make of the RAVENS myself a bit up and down now over the years. Plus they lost to the Steelers 3 times last year so will have a bit to do to overcome that stat. I see also you went for the JETS to be in contention somebody else did that maybe it was ROMA. I don't rate these boys at all I think they will struggle in the AFC EAST with New England in it to overcome and might need a 11 and 5 to make it as a best runners up depending on how the Titans and Ravens go if their divisions go as the bookies predict. Still LOTS OF FUN to look forward to on those miserable Sunday Wet Cold Winter evenings. I love watching the games played in the snow. I get a kick out of watching the crowds at them as much as the games themselves....They must be MAD. :^0 ......Cheers |
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5 star review as always bless, thanks a million,
any news on live coverage, sky have there September ad out and nothing about the there NFL coverage on it!!! |
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Recent info on the coverage on sky
At the start of the year, one of our objectives at NFL UK was to complete the 2009 TV contracts early and communicate them to fans promptly. Sadly this has not been achieved partly given the challenging nature of negotiations and partly due to the aim of providing the best possible outcome for everybody. I appreciate the frustration that must be felt by the lack of information and apologise that we havent been able to do a better job of alleviating it. The broadcast landscape has changed since our TV rights were last up for renewal. A combination of the international economy, as well as the shifting sands of the broadcasters, has meant that several curve balls have been thrown over the past few months. As yet, the contracts for the 2009 season have not been totally finalized, and until they are, we are not at liberty to announce anything concrete. Suffice to say that we will have this completed in the next two to three weeks, and the first place you will hear about these finalized deals will be here on nfluk.com. I can tell you that, despite the difficulty of negotiations, some advances in our broadcast situation have been made, which I think will be exciting to fans here. Having said that, with the economy and TV landscape in mind, we have also seen some elements of our presence on British television disappear the first casualty of which is the preseason, which will not be shown this season on Sky Sports. Looked at as a whole picture, I think youll see that the sport is in a better situation once these contracts are signed and sealed. I think a top line view is that we have probably taken three steps forward and a couple of steps back. However, it is apparent for us as fans of a relatively niche sport with plenty of growing still to do, we have no |
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Great write up Bless, Ive posted some of these points on the American forum bt please allow me to put them on here as I like the quality of the discussion.
This time last year the team that went 0-16 Detroit were 3 1/2 points favs AWAY to Atlanta who ended up maing the play offs so it does show how hard it is to be subjective using the previous years standings. One thing I think is very under rated and is the reson for teams turning around bad seasons into good ones is schedule. There are two teams that have great schedules thta maethc up with their style of play this year and tho Houston have a tough Div their out of Div match ups are great and the Div is just of tough for the other teams in it. In the NFC West the sexy shout so far has been Seattle coming as you say off a horrid season injury wise but Hassselback has had plenty of injuries in the last few years, is slowing down a lot and they have Julius Jones and the Edge at rb, hardly the stuff of nightmares for the opposition to handle. In that Div San Fran have a peach of a schedule to use their running game and with Coffe looking like a great back up for Gore they could be good value in that Div given that Singletary has changed the mindset and wrok ethic of he team from the gung ho Mike Martz system. At this stage and at 4 or above these teams look like the vlue in the Divs, i really do expect them to shorten when the fixed odds firms re avaluate their prices over the next week or so leading up tp the start as most of them havent chnged a price since they released em months ago. Thanks |
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sorry for the awful spelling, I was trying to type and watch TV at the same time. Multi tasking is beyond me ;o)
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Very hard to disagree with the AFC selections. Both class teams and Brady is back and looking good in pre season.
In the NFC I really fancy the Vikings to win their division (I'm a Bears fan) as the Bears defence has been on the downward slope for a couple of years and the receiving corp is useless outside of Olsen at TE. The Packers are very hot and cold and I think thay will be as incosistent as they were last season. The signing of Farve could go either way. He was good for the Jets until his injury last season. This season, despite having a shoulder problem (he had it while playing well last year too) I think he can improve on last year. He is now playing for a team that plays the same type of offence that he played behind in Green Bay for years and is also back working with his old QB coach from those days. Farve will have more time in the pocket as opposition defences can't load up against the pass with Adrian Peterson in the backfield. Worst case scenario; Farve is a flop and is replaced by Rosenfels who is still a marked improvement from Ferotte/Jackson who they had last year. Another thing to consider is that the Vikes have a very easy schedule this season. The other team I fancy in the NFC are The Eagles. I think last season was a season too soon for them but they have added a few nice options and have a couple of great rookies from last year who will be looking to build on great 1st seasons. |
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IRISH RO....I can't help wondering are the Chargers just too short at 10/1 on what they have achieved over the last few years especially some of those flops in the play-offs.
Its clear they are already priced up as a team who are virtually already in the play-offs coming from the AFC West where their three rivals are all starting with a changed of head coaches. Personally with Seattle demise over the last Two years a case could be made that Arizona now in the NFC West at 28/1 would have similar credentials to them at double or treble the price. There has to be huge doubts on whether Merriman will be anything near as good as he was or even survive the season with his rebuild knee. Certainly I wouldn't fancy stepping into a NFL game with a rebuild knee to hold me up. Still I didn't choose to make them one of my lays this year when I probably could of afforded the luxury with the Steelers and the Patriots hanging around in the wings for the Chargers in the play-offs. Saying all that I fear for your finacial situation between eyeing up French women and following the Chargers neither would be my recommendation to help you get through a Irish recession. Good luck with both of them, you probaly need it. ;) ......Cheers |
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OLDBEAN....What do you do with the previews? Do you use them for picking your own bets or just for watching whats coming across the counter to you? As you always liked the NFL previews.
........................................................................................................ MR FU, Yeah I do see some of your threads over on the American forum. To tell you the truth I'm always a bit disappointed when I go over there as very few of the pundits there ever offer much of a opinion on why exactly they fancied something......Either they like keeping their cards close to their chest over there or maybe I'm not reading the right threads. :( I'm not sure I can agree with you over schedules. I do think it can effect the tough divisons like the AFC North and the NFC East while the NFC South and North are probably schedules worth looking at for trading purposes. EG, the Packers have a brutal start with 5 aways in 8 games including Dallas, Vikings and the Eagles.. But the NFC West is a stroll for a Superbowl contender so I see little significance what either of the Seahawks or 49ers get the Texans and Arizona will be hard to beat there. The other team you mentioned the Texans in the AFC South its borderline especially when you look at the stats and see the Colts have qualify from it for the last 7 seasons with a 12 - 4 record or better and in 10 out of the last 11 years. Thats some record to challenge just because of a good schedule. True the Texans have been working wonders in the off-season buts its still a huge challenge to ruffle up the Colts imo especially with the Titans also doing so little wrong last year. But betting is all about opinions and thanks for yours.... But like I said I don't think schedules apart from with maybe with one or two of the teams in the tougher divisons offer any advantage. Look at the Steelers last year and the Giants the year before they probably couldn't have found tougher schedules but yet both went on and won the Superbowl. Good luck with your selections anyway. I will be keeping One eye on them just in case you prove me wrong, You won't be the first. :^0 .....Cheers |
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Correction I swear my computer has a mind of its own. :0
But the NFC West is a stroll for a Superbowl contender so I see little significance what either of the Seahawks or 49ers get *** **** and Arizona will be hard to beat there. ........Cheers |
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Your points are certainly applicable to the outright market and I digressed a litte into the Divs and trading those positions.
The Colts have as you say got the record to make it very tough on the other teams in that league but the one downside maybe that all the teams in that league are now competitve where in the past that hasnt been the case, Houston were regularly beaten up most years and Tenn had salary cap problems for seasons after almost scooping the championship. Its gonna be fun for sure mate. Good luck with your positions. |
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Wow! Thats some preview Bless. Obviously a labour of love.
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Thanks GIANT.
........................................................................................................ MR FU if your still around or anybody. Talking about teams schedules. Do you think a harder schedule at the start of the season wth a easy run in, could actually offer a sort of advantage to a team. When you look at the last two years both Arizona and the New York Giants seemed to get momentum as the play-off loomed while teams who had a good start like the Giants this year and maybe New England last year faded away the nearer it got to the Superbowls. Do you think thats just the way league form goes or does haven the harder games early in a season offer some sort of advantage to have them out of the way, rather than what most of us normally think a lot of early defeats break the team spirit. :0 .......Cheers .............................................................................................................. ps....I suppose you could make the same case about GAA. Cork had the handy 1/4 final while Tyrone had to battle against Kildare. That confidence of a easy win my have stood to Cork. If it is the case in GAA that should suit Kerry on Sunday. :^0 |
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ttt
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I hope Sky sign up the rights to the NFL soon otherwise we will be relying on crappy internet feeds on a Sunday night.
Good right up Bless |
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Possible injury to Brady last night in pre-season.
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Dark Destroyer probably playing games with the Steelers. Ben was meant to be out for the season last week. Two days later he's flying.
If early season money talks its Green Bay Packers and San Diego Chargers is whats there telling us. While Carolina Partners is now the one they want to lay after been in demand a few weeks ago. Only problem there for fans of the money is Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears Two other of the best backed teams in the pre-season are also in the AFC North same group of Green Bay. Unlikely more than 1 team will make it through from that division so somebody NFL bets will end up in a bin early. :( Saying that neither the money or the bookies never quite predict what will happen in a NFL season probably because a team overall strength and its ultimate finish in a season doesn't always correlate with its abilty. Which all makes its GREAT FUN to bet on.......Cheers |
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MR FU if your still around or anybody. Talking about teams schedules. Do you think a harder schedule at the start of the season wth a easy run in, could actually offer a sort of advantage to a team.
When you look at the last two years both Arizona and the New York Giants seemed to get momentum as the play-off loomed while teams who had a good start like the Giants this year and maybe New England last year faded away the nearer it got to the Superbowls. Do you think thats just the way league form goes or does haven the harder games early in a season offer some sort of advantage to have them out of the way, rather than what most of us normally think a lot of early defeats break the team spirit. .......Cheers ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ You could have a point there Blessington and it is something I have never really thought of. Will be something to consider this year for sure. |
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ttt, any fresh thoughts anyone?
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