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wherethefenianssleep
03 Nov 09 15:02
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Date Joined: 22 May 08
| Topic/replies: 44 | Blogger: wherethefenianssleep's blog
if you back a horse at 33s when he unseats rider at the last when twenty lengths clear does this mean that you got value but were unlucky? or those any winner backed at any price including 1.01 actually constitute value or is it just a term invented by tipsters to hide behind.
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Report Upthewaterhill November 3, 2009 3:07 PM GMT
Yea, you can buy a 2 bed condo in Florida for $30 bag today, two years ago it would have cost $300 bag. Thats value in my opinion.
Report tips November 3, 2009 3:10 PM GMT
you cant eat value
Report punkha1 November 3, 2009 3:11 PM GMT
Noticed loads of houses in Florida seem to be going for a song.Whats the story here?
Report Doyler1987 November 3, 2009 3:13 PM GMT
Theres no such thing as value in my humble opinion. Value is a fancy word some clever bugger came up with for people to say when they think something is a good bet to sound smart and to feel like they know what their doing. I use the word, we all use the word sure.

People seem to forget that for every "value" bet their doing, theres some bloke on the other end laying the very same bet thinking that its a "value" lay. Whos right? Doesnt matter, they both have views, both backed their view, both think they have gotten value. Their happy, so it doesnt matter what the result is, everyone will see odds and think "high" or "low" its all how they view it.

When the books price up something "wrong" thats a whole different matter altogether, but one has to assume that with the volume of money matched on Betfair every price is perfect. In running is different from that too obviously as things change every second. Theres also the people who'd back 11/10 on a coin flip, thats well and good, but theyve still got a 50% chance of losing if they only get one go..

I'm sure many will disagree, and thats what its all about..!
Report CailiniDeas8 November 3, 2009 3:16 PM GMT
9/10 the coin flip is not value imo
Report Doyler1987 November 3, 2009 3:18 PM GMT
Indeed it isnt (fact), but it can still win B-)
Report Doyler1987 November 3, 2009 3:19 PM GMT
BTW Cailini, did you back that horse E/W in the Melbourne Cup? Sort of got held up with his run for a second or too turning in, would of been close otherwise I reckon.
Report CailiniDeas8 November 3, 2009 3:27 PM GMT
I didn't 87. Felll asleep woke up and it was all over.

Watched the race this morning, jock was caught napping just like me.
Report rule4 will apply November 3, 2009 3:27 PM GMT
the concept of value does exist of course,
i thought Zenyatta should be 6/4 for BC classic, she can be backed at 4/1-my idea of value!
some layer thought she should be 6/1 and lays her at 4's -he has value too...
even if the rip wins, we are both happy at the time we struck the deal
Report db1974 November 3, 2009 4:01 PM GMT
Because all punters ultimately bet to win money, the USE of value betting becomes more important as you back more and more horse.

IMO for the vast majority of punters (I would say 99%), value is irrelevant in their punting lifetimes, particularly given the fairly small margins involved in getting "value".

Example
Take a roulette wheel. 37 numbers (incl 0). Most casinos pay 35/1 on any one particular number. Now suppose you found a casino which paid 37/1 on Zero and 35/1 on all the rest. This makes Zero value, based on the theory - I don't think anybody can argue with that.

My question is, how long would one person have to sit at that wheel before they could be 99% statistically sure that they were going to show a profit.

When you apply that logic to horse-racing and the fact that the whole concept of value is subjective and based on opinion as opposed to mathematical fact as in the roulette example, I don't believe value is all its cracked up to be.

As a small punter, both in terms of stake and frequency of bets, if I thought a horse was going to win a race or at least have a very good chance of running well, I wouldn't be put off by the fact that the horse was 9/4 instead of, say 11/4
Report kincsem November 3, 2009 4:04 PM GMT
If you know something (good or bad) that few others can know then you have value.
Report Win only - Sp only November 3, 2009 4:05 PM GMT
Doyler is surely "fishing" with that rubbish
Report observerirl November 3, 2009 4:08 PM GMT
Just like beauty is in the eye of the beholder the concept of value is purely a matter of personal opinion. That concept of value is arrived at by weighing up all the pros and cons of a particular horses chance given the circumstances. Because peoples interpretation of form differs and quite dramatically on occasion it can explain why some people think 6/4 about a particular horse a great price and others are more than prepared to lay at the same price. Of course there may be other circumstances at play other than form but that a different matter!!
Report downallstar November 3, 2009 4:15 PM GMT
Imo the term value can only be used before an event, you use it to decide whether or not to take price.
Afterwards its irrelevant.
Report db1974 November 3, 2009 4:25 PM GMT
Surely if you use "value" then it is just as important after the race as it is before the race, arguably more so because you neeed to know if your selection method is good enough to beat the crowd.

If a 1/2 shot beats a 33/1 shot by a short-head, who got value? those who backed the winner or those who backed the runner-up.

IMO the people who backed the 33/1 are the ones who got value because if the 2 horses ran again under the exact same conditions (opposition, track, weather, going, jockeys etc etc), there is no way that those 2 horses will be priced up like that again.
Report pots November 3, 2009 5:04 PM GMT
the idea that value doesn't exist, and a winner at any price is good, is fantasy. partucularly it becomes more fanciful the more you bet.

If someone offered me 6/4 heads on a coin toss, I would be getting value, assuming the toss was fair. If I was challenged to one toss for 100k, i may choose not to have the bet cos I can;t afford to lose 100k. however if he offred me 10 throws at the same price, then I would definitely have to consider raising the money. if he offred me 100 throws, then I am guaranteed to win, because I am getting value.

You can quantify a horse or a teams chances in a similar vein, and in the long run the value hunter will always win if his judgement of value ios correct. thats pretty much as complex as gambling becomes.
Report soapp November 3, 2009 5:25 PM GMT
I always think there is value to be had backing Patrick Mullins every time over Nina Carberry. There is a perception out there that Nina is best. This imo makes most horses that young Patrick a value bet.

He has got everything you look for in an Amateur especially imo judgement of pace.
Report adriandc November 3, 2009 6:46 PM GMT
Doyler, just because you might think that value is just some fancy word used for people who want to sound smart doesnt mean the rest of think like that.

Value is hugely important and of course it exists, its the reason there are full time pro gamblers still in existence. If I was any good at finding value in gambling Id use it at every opportunity.

If your always getting good value then in the long run, you cannot lose.

The only problem is that in sports betting, value isn't quite as clear cut as the likes of getting 2/1 for heads on a coin. But that doesnt mean it doesnt exist.
Report Viva Las Vegas November 3, 2009 6:49 PM GMT
1/1,000,000 on 'Sunday to follow Saturday' in PPowers 'What Day Is Next?' market is value imo
Report Cupwinkcook November 3, 2009 6:51 PM GMT
you can only get 50 quid on though
Report Doyler1987 November 3, 2009 8:29 PM GMT
Right here goes on long post, sorry..!

Win Only, I wasnt fishing. I genuinely believe that waffle there I've typed.

adriandc, I completely agree with you that no one else should think like I do. But thats my view and I go with it sure, I respect the fact that people will disagree with me because they believe in value. All I can do is back my own personal judgement you know.

I'm sorry I bought up the coin thing because I opened up a can of worms, I agree 6/4 on a coin toss will make you a winner in the long run, obviously, but in reality no one is going to give you 6/4. And if were talking in terms of sport you only get one shot at it, you still have a 50/50 chance of losing. (if teams are evenly matched etc etc)

Think about it though, the only reason youve actually got a bet on is because someone else has gone against you. Its "value" because you think youre the one whos "right." But you have to respect the other blokes judgement too, but people dont because they are "right," the other bloke then becomes a "mug" because hes gone against you. In all the above examples given, they all end up as a winner, no one is going to hand you money it doesnt work like that sure.

Obviously its impossible to describe because everyone views it differently but I just think people are too stubborn in their own minds whats right to them, and dont appreciate that you know everyone has their own view and people are going to go against you.

Viva's example I reckon, is confusing whats a certainty and whats "value," no one will lay that. And in db's example after the event I'd of rather backed the 1/2 winner than the 33/1 second because I'll collect. What happens next time is of no importance to me sure.

Take Soapp's example, I'm sure many people will think Nina is better, but thats his view and he backs his view. He can only do what he thinks is right, and no one should try and tell him different. Likewise, he shouldnt try and change other peoples view.

So, I dont believe in the word "value." I have something in my head that tells me whether to back something or not to, thats how I work. I'll have odds in my mind of what I'd back at before I open the market, but I want to back the winner end of story, just have to sort out the risk-reward, and respect that the horse/whatever is that price for a reason. Reason being people disagree with my view.

I was taught to never disagree with anyone elses opinion because its as worthy as my own you know. Thats just what I think.
Report Win only - Sp only November 3, 2009 9:36 PM GMT
easy example for you, as you might need one.

man unt v dagenham and redbridge . mickymouse.com go 1/2 man unt as the odds complier was on the sauce all day . is that value?

of course it is, they should be 1/10 or less

win/lose or draw 1/2 is a value price.

you can keep doing your long posts all you want, but anyone saying that value is nonsense should be doing something else
Report Haventaclue November 3, 2009 9:42 PM GMT
Jaysus lads, of course it exists. It not only exists, it is the beginning, the middle and the end of punting. If you are a winning punter, it is because you have been backing at prices which on average have TURNED OUT TO BE good value. There is nothing else to it.
With the exception of the odd fixed race or the odd thrown match, nobody knows what is going to happen, so it then becomes all about the price.
Even if you yourself never think about it in those terms, the fact is that the only thing which determines whether you win or lose in the long run is whether or not you are actually getting value in your punting.
Report downallstar November 3, 2009 9:53 PM GMT
If you price up your own tissues for certian or all(wd) races, or you have a good idea what price you want on a certian horse the night before, say 10/1.... and the next day its 20/1 then you surely must say to yourself "thats value.."

Pricing up certian races when you haven't seen any tissues is a good thing to do. Download a percentage calculator and fire away, takes a bit of practice at first, been doing it for a few yrs now, though not as often as I should.
Report adriandc November 3, 2009 9:57 PM GMT

Doyler1987 03 Nov 21:29

Think about it though, the only reason youve actually got a bet on is because someone else has gone against you. Its "value" because you think youre the one whos "right." But you have to respect the other blokes judgement too, but people dont because they are "right," the other bloke then becomes a "mug" because hes gone against you. In all the above examples given, they all end up as a winner, no one is going to hand you money it doesnt work like that sure.


Obviously its impossible to describe because everyone views it differently but I just think people are too stubborn in their own minds whats right to them, and dont appreciate that you know everyone has their own view and people are going to go against you.


But your basing that on the idea that both the backer and layer either both fully know what they are talking about, or neither of them know. The point were making is that one is more right than the other, and its the one whos better at finding value is the one who is more "right".
So just say a pro punter has spent days and days working to find value on a weekends programme of football, he might spot that PP have slipped up in one of the matches and offered too much of a price. This is why value is so important, he is now more "right" than the layer based on knowledge and experience.


So, I dont believe in the word "value." I have something in my head that tells me whether to back something or not to, thats how I work. I'll have odds in my mind of what I'd back at before I open the market, but I want to back the winner end of story, just have to sort out the risk-reward, and respect that the horse/whatever is that price for a reason. Reason being people disagree with my view.


But this practically is finding value, its not far off, the only difference is your willing to accept a lower than value price.

Anyway I agree with you, we have a right to our own opinions, some people dont think its possible to find value in a horse or in a football match, others do. But I really think punters who put the effort into finding value and only bet where there is value are the ones who will usually come out on top.
Report Doyler1987 November 3, 2009 10:24 PM GMT
Win only I said before - "When the books price up something "wrong" thats a whole different matter altogether"
In reality no book would go 1/2 in that match, I'll give you an example, blue to the square going 5/4, 8/1, 16/1 and 25/1 about a four runner race (Go Native in Tipp this year) Are they "value" yes, most definitely, but thats not going to happen every day because thats a "wrong" book. Youre mixing up whats a "wrong" book and whats "value." Obviously a wrong book IS value to the punter, but as I said that wont happen often.

I totally agree with you again adriandc apart from "your basing that on the idea that both the backer and layer either both fully know what they are talking about" I'd be of the view thats true and the market is perfect before the off (on Betfair). The point I'm trying to make is we dont KNOW whos right and whos wrong until after the event. I think everyone just wants to be "right" all the time when you know no ones perfect. You say my little few words there "is" finding value when I dont class it as "finding value" I'm just trying to win, some odds will appeal to me, some wont.

Why do I back something when trading cricket? Because I think it'll go shorter, why do I lay something? Because I think it'll go higher. I'm not sitting here going "er, is this value right now." But I know for every back I do someone is laying and vice versa, so there is no "value" between the two, it is an opinion. There might be "value" in terms of the outcome, but no one could possibly prove it at the time.

I'd also have a strong view that gambling in all in the mind, and that massively effects what people see and do. Why do people chase sure? Everyone will do it at some time. You also have to factor in what staking they'll use, like how much of an edge is the "value" back, is it a max bet, or half, or small, or no bet. How much of a losing run will they go on and how it'll effect them. Lots of things come into it, I dont think its just about backing "value" prices.

I just think "value" is a word people use to explain what they think is a good bet, thats all really. Value is just another word for opinion, if we all agreed, no one would get a bet matched..

:p
Report Win only - Sp only November 3, 2009 10:38 PM GMT
cant be arsed to read all that, no value in it
Report crouchingtiger1 November 4, 2009 6:38 AM GMT
Value is critical to making a profit punting but is fiendishly hard to quantify.

If I offered you 5/2 on the toss of a coin would you consider it value? Yes of course you would but it could be the worst bet you've ever had. Do you know me? Do you know if the coin is straight? In fact the more "value" you think you have the more likely you are to be wrong.

There are of course notable exceptions to this, every hugely successful punter has an inherent ability to suss out value
Report db1974 November 4, 2009 10:13 AM GMT
pots 03 Nov 18:04
If someone offered me 6/4 heads on a coin toss, I would be getting value, assuming the toss was fair. If I was challenged to one toss for 100k, i may choose not to have the bet cos I can;t afford to lose 100k. however if he offred me 10 throws at the same price, then I would definitely have to consider raising the money. if he offred me 100 throws, then I am guaranteed to win, because I am getting value.


You are NOT guaranteed to win because there is no guarantee that you will definitely get the 41 heads required.
Report Tolmi November 4, 2009 11:36 AM GMT
As well as discipline tha ability to discern value is a key component in a sussessful gambler.In the long run a punters ability to back eventualities at odds greater than the chance of their occurance will set him well on the way to making money.However unlike the obvious good/bad value in a coin toss value in betting on future races/sporting events is far more difficult to quantify.I would suggest as a rule of thumb a value seeking punter should be able to beat betfair SP on at least 80% of his bets unless he is forming his opinion on knowledge that is not in the public domain.
Report pots November 9, 2009 4:53 PM GMT
db1974 of course you are ocrrect i am not guaranteed to win, but the bigger the sample, the more confidence i can have that I will realise my expected profit
Report roadrunner46 April 11, 2019 6:25 PM BST
yes value exists and is alive and kickingLaugh
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