Jumps thoughts for season ahead

The Odyssey was the only one I recognised. With that pedigree he should have done better on the flat, and evidently connections didn't think he could, otherwise they would have kept him.

At this time of year with Pontefract winding down, I think it would be the Cheltenham of the north if it were a NH track.  2 miles round, enough up-hill and down-dale to make it a good test, and a stiff uphill finish.  Would even look a bit like Chelters with no more than 1 or 2 obstacles in the straight and a jumping test along the back.

I see punters got their fingers burnt on a Snowden ex-pointer in the Stratford closer. Hopefully, not a sign of things to come as Snowden one of the few who up to now actually tries to win bumpers. The winner had the best pedigree, but looks a nippy, short-term project. She has done well to come from last to first at a track like Stratford. Knight horse looked to have a bit of scope, but not the pace.

Backed Birdie Conway each-way at 15/2 last night - no take outs please. I backed him at 66/1 on debut at Punchestown, and although he outran those odds, he did look a touch slow. That should have been a much better race than this one, but you never know. Given the inexperienced jock, and the sharp track, I hope they take the tactics out, and go forward. Fingers crossed.

Thought I posted this already but couldn't have done, if already not known.
Just that Jango Bai won't be out until the New Year at the earliest.

Birdie Conway had been very strong up until the last hour - down to as low as 6/4 - but now they can't give it away. I can only assume it's a ground issue, but I don't have pictures. He is closely related to The Mourne Rambler who wouldn't want it soft. Could have doubled my money with a cash out, but that's long gone. Now looking at salvaging a place.

Bookmakers will be delighted with that. The winner a massive drifter. I won't be any hurry to back that jock again. Probably wouldn't have won anyway, but the last thing he needed to do was sit in behind a crawl on a slow horse.

Visually for no other reason Hes on Fire for the Brown A I thought looked a total monster probably am wrong but there you go.

Jasmine De Vaux to be trained for the stayers hurdle an interesting one having missed last season and a bit of a forgotten horse.

Mydaddypaddy to stay hurdling.
The New Lion to step up in trip.

I backed Jasmin De Vaux for the Stayers last year, and have just done the same again. Fingers crossed we can get a run this time. It's a weak division. No certainty that The New Lion will stay, and he is suddenly stepping up a mile.

Taken a chance on West Hill Verde in the Persian War. Flagged the horse up on here last season, and got a few each-way returns at decent prices. Hard to understand why he is such a big price (and drifting) relative Lord Byron. He gave that horse 12lbs and a 5.5 length beating at Kelso, and the margin would likely have been much greater, but for an horrendous mistake. Even with the fitness advantage 2/1 against 28/1 doesn't look right.

Can we have a list of ALL Anti Poste bets struck and put up on here in list format

, so that the casual viewer can see if any of the chin wagging before the jumps season starts amounts to much?

Cheers.

My thought, Mullins will win loads, Paul Niclos will have another chin, Ed will wear his green over coat to Chelts on St Paddy’s day!

Due to the weak looking nature of the Chamipion hurdle Constitution River might make a comeback after having his asss handed back to him on one of these foreign jolly ups planned

And Micky pasty faced Fitz will say nice hooooarse anc not take a fkkkibg day off!

Thank me later for letting your excitement bubble over!

Oh and Irons might tell us how he backed Old park Car once ups on a time …..

Dont turn this thread into the usual nonsense. If you want to start the usual personal **** do it on one of the hundreds of others that's been ruined already.

Excuse me? They are my thoughts on the coming jumps season.

And as said, LIST ALL AP BETS STRUCK.

Your last post is trying to start the usual to and fro thus ruining another thread. Do it elsewhere.

Don’t believe that it was but we all have different humour.

Here’s another thought, we’ll see tiny tears from Chemical at some point.

MJK, I would suggest the best policy is just to ignore, everyone knows what he is. Let him just spew his nonsense to himself.

If anyone does engage that's the end of the thread.

Fair point DD

Interesting to see how much Cosmic Connection has improved over the pre season. I would assume the horse will be fit enough to do itself justice as its the sort of prize the trainer would be chasing with his string.

I would suggest you post your AP bets so we can keep track of them, but given your record with AP betting it’ll end in tears when connections go a different route to what you envisage the best route for the horse!

Are you expecting this thread to reflect your Arc one then Delashay?

The Welsh Champion Hurdle looks wide open. Any one got an angle into the race? I'm looking at a couple of the outsiders, I just want to see how they go down to post before I play

pioneer pete could run well

Great shout differentdrum!

Great shout DD will raise a glass to you later.

Me too , tks DD

Fantastic DD. Hopefully you were going by your own eyes after the last and not shouty man.

Well done dd, super price, thought it as booked for second.

Good call DD, had the 2nd ew. lol  Btw I think that should quieten Delashay as none of his threads have ever featured such a winner.

Nice one DD.

Got the thread off to a cracker.
  wd
    GL

Great shout, DD

Thanks all, nice when people make a few quid.

Looks a lovely horse, and he was given a very sensible ride.

wd, dd !    in bumoer tomorrow, Chepstow 5.10, MILLY OCEAN 3s nap ticjkes boxesse...  do me..  has itte on formme & breedingge angle, and Skelton fav probably fare better over hurdles at longgerre trippes, mebbe..   datte itte.. gl alle :)

Just looked at Kelso race DD , my goodness what a performance after a ' PU ' mistake . Lets hope he isnt overraced and can progress further .

Thanks vc.

In general the ground might be more testing tomorrow. It doesn't look much of a bumper. The Skelton runner is probably out of their third division, and they are trying to nick a weak race. I would be most worried about the Twiston-Davies runner - already supported, and it wouldn't be a total surprise if it went off favourite. So often Twister in form at the start of the season. How long will it last?

Backed Treasure Planet ew at 10s earlier. Consistent last season, hoping its improved to be competitive here.

Also backed Koctail Bleu, though confidence tempered a bit after the Gordon horse blew out yesterday.

Unlike yesterday's winner, I have backed Wellington Arch for several good priced wins, and also when he was second in the William Hill. He was unlucky that day to run into a winner who hasn't shown anything like that level, before or since. The stable had a big winner yesterday so why is he such a big drifter today? He should be vying for the first five, but he is priced up as an also ran? The Skelton bumper horse has drifted and it's a bun fight as to who goes off market leader. I will stick with the Twister horse. The opening juvenile could well be above average. The maiden hurdle could throw up a decent one. We know Nicholls thinks a lot of the favourite. The Twister horse fell in the point that I made a note of the second. In The Park has been supported after a second stable switch. I wonder if he is just going backwards, and whether he really wants three miles.

Good luck to anyone playing. I would be a little cautious.

Winner and a place with the two, happy with that. No idea why Freddie Gordon was constantly looking around once they turned into the straight.

nice 1 MJK   wd on those two :)

Well done MJK.

I don't know where Wellington Arch would have finished, but I doubt any jock has conjured five worse jumps over the last five flights at Chepstow. He was staying on in third when making the race ending one. Well done Jonjo, back to your old tricks.

I'd be interested in Masked Man from that race next time. Tired fall at the last but pulled too hard all through the race. May have needed the race to get the buzz out of the system.

Put 4 on the Larne boat and they fink ure Barney

Milly not good enuffe in Suddell 5.10   3rd...   Skelton beast sees late coinne & hoses uppe.. wd demme...   Irish gamble 2nd:  #summitte

I know the commentator was getting very excited - as is his want - but I don't think that bumper was much good. It turned into a burn up. The Twister horse was weak in the market late, and might have preferred a stiffer test, but was still pretty disappointing. The yard had a few of those today, so is he back out of form already?

So here’s another,

The Chump will say, “And so he is….” Or something alike as he scrambles to re link to his roots having made all his money riding here!

Would have liked to have seen the replay DD but as usual the horses are crossing the line and Chapman already has his microphone in a connections face. Totally ruins it for me. Will have a look back later without his input.

Mik will also feel no shame saying , “Champ” whilst his nose or tightly clamped by two cheeks.

Well done, MJK

Just the one bet today, Gower Prince. GL all whatever you're betting on.

Looks like one card too many at Chepstow although I appreciate it was always going to be difficult to sustain three days on hurdles alone. The favourite in the first might be above average for the sphere, but do you want to take odds on about a horse from a stable that has for the most part has been poor for the last few seasons. A few high profile horses - including this one - has rather bailed him out. The concluding bumper is likely (much) better than yesterday, but no value is jumping out. The Bowen horse made my pointing list, but do I want to take 3/1 in a guessing game, probably not.

Agreed DD, it's been hard to retain my enthusiasm for the entirety of the Chepstow meeting, but I actually found a winner and a place at Hexham yesterday. I'm taking a small chance on Kamille Au Kanada in the opener. The favourite is clearly talented, but there are too many question marks for me to get involved at cramped odds. I fully appreciate my selection only won an egg and spoon race last time, and I'm not Sam Twiston-Davies's biggest fan. I was expecting her to be shorter in the market, but the 5/1 available with Bet365 is enough to tempt me in.

Punters appear not to be too bothered with the trainer in the first. Perhaps she will make all and bolt up, but I would prefer to just watch. Walkinthemournes is another off my point list, but in hindsight it was a weak race she won and she only went for 60,000. I like Powell even less than Twiston-Davies. Just on that stable, I would be wary of going overboard about Tennessee Tango. The horse came there cantering and for whatever reason didn't go through with it. He has a high head carriage. I backed him several times last year and got a few each-way returns, but he only won a very poor race. That 3/1 in the last has now become 7/4 and the horse has gone from third in the market to favourite. Even more happy to leave it now.

Good luck.

Alarm bells ringing as soon as the favourite didn't go on. That despite the second favourite bungling nearly every hurdle on the track. If the defeat was down to fitness it seems like pretty amateurish training. The Tizzard made a bit of late progress, but was never at the races. Bookmakers seem to be raising a glass to Skelton on quite a regular basis at the moment.

Yes DD got the impression if it was later in the season Williams would've kicked on much further out. Gower Prince scrambled home but a win is a win. 7/2 when I backed it and was bigger than that last night so the the O'Neill gang have probably had a load on. Mind you the one earlier was well backed and looked good until jnr was all over the shop at the last.

Well done again. There is no such thing as a bad win. Commented on the last race on the Skelton thread. It's been nauseating having to listen to Chapman bigging up the Skelton hold-up rides over the last two days.

Just on a general point, one or two female jockeys haven't shown themselves in too good a light over the three days. We had the two falls at the last which looked more than a possibility on the approach, and today the claimer couldn't keep her horse straight on the run to the last. Long way to go.

wd on Gower Prince, MJK :)

Cheers Von. Yes DD I actually thought she was gonna fall off.

Hughes being replaced as McCain stable No1 by Theo Gillard.

First trip to the bookies in ages this morning. Forced into it as William Hill ludicrously won't accept any each way bets from me. Hopefully, it was worth the effort. The horse in question was Fairy Park for the Mares' Novice. She was off last year's point list. I backed her at 20/1 for Aintree bumper, and I think she probably should have won. Therein lies the problem with the Tizzard/Powell combination. The jock is a bit of a bridle boy, and rarely delivers on the big stage. That said Tizzard delivered my best ever winner with Cue Card in the Festival Bumper. That one barely came off the bridle, and was probably one of most impressive Festival winners ever seen. As for Fairy Park she is also a strong traveller who probably wouldn't want it too soft. She is from the family of One Man. I know she got beat by Princess Day, who was pretty disappointing at Chepstow, but I can see her having too much toe for that one over hurdles. At least that is the hope. As ever with the novice races the spectrum is very wide, but I think 50/1 could very easily be 20/1. She has been widely talked up by the stable as their horse for the season. Fingers crossed that she can at least make the gig.

Some guy at the Racing Post suggesting tomorrow was the best ever day's racing at Ffos Las. I did have to check that Mr Magoo hadn't made a comeback. Obviously, trying very hard for some sort of cheerleading medal. The novice chase looked interesting, but even the favourite in that has looked iffy.

On quality, I don't think I have seen two worse back-to-back Punchestown cards. Were the runners restricted in some way, or is it the ground?

guy in RP full ov itte ahnyhoo, at Ffos Las course tomorrow  long layoffe is the worry, butte in the 1.45 there THE MAGUS 8/1 winne has enuffe in the booke to deem him the one to beat in Cl5 chase there,,,,   needes to be close to pace to have chance..   notte the slicjkesstte over t,obstacles...  canne go close absendte a #blunderre...  gl alle :)

Got a couple of returns out of Desertmore News last season, but it seems a strange starting point tomorrow. Not sure why they think that soft ground and a galloping track is a good fit. Had conditions been in his favour, I might have fancied him for the upset.

It's definitely an interesting card. I'm intrigued to see how Tutti Quanti does over fences. I wouldn't want to play at a very short price on his chase debut, but if he takes to fences? He would be an exciting horse to watch over the course of the season due to his exuberant front running style. He looked very classy in the Betfair hurdle, you can forgive his left behind at the start run in the Champion Hurdle and he would have won the Scottish equivalent if hadn't fallen

went for thatte one meselffe, dd  notte worriedde bout groundde me; were okay whenne he wonne at #suddwelle in Feb over the stixxe....  fav too shortte here & mebbe itte,s Sinnatra 6/5 whatte wanttes better groundde, esp over a shortte trippe.. #dattaguesse                                                     
                 Skelton jolly is one of a fewe in thisse thattes neva jumpedde a fence & whoom also like to lead...  interestingge race,,,,  forre me, atte 11 or 12 to one Desertmore News as good a bette as any in 2.20 Ffos Las race.... hope to see Ellis beasdte bowl alongge in frontte here.... is also due one on stats  last four form figures - in #reverse#kronnolodjicalle orda be: 0101   #my2  gl alle  :)

Well someone thinks conditions are okay for Desertmore News as he has been smashed up - 12/1-6/1. He absolutely bolted up at Southwell, but this is a different kettle of fish, and he was later exposed at a higher level. Even if he can outjump them today, I just think it might be difficult seeing it out up that long straight.

Good luck.

That first race looked like a war of attrition. I can't see anything charging off in front, and if you don't handle some cut, it's going to be a struggle.

Desertmore News just set the race up for the others. On that ground he could never stretch them enough to put them under any pressure. Stratford on quick ground would be more his bag. Unfortunately, he was backed regardless of conditions. Winner has dotted up.

go with Roxy Russet ~8/1 win in 3.29 Fontwell 2moro....  going on her good groundde/bumpa formme: hereford bumper in March, finishingge 2nd, expectte Charlie Longsdon filly to mekk bold bidde fromme frontte on hurdles bow here, at whatte perhappes a sharppe enuffe trippe on #breedingge-angle   
         thinkke fav also on datte same angle notte unopposable here,,,, Mulholland jolly Emerald Quest 4/9 perjhappes wanttes either softa goingge or extra yardage, #attaguesse   Katios Queen 2/1 2fav prolly be heldde uppe here; andde mightte couldde go close here havingge gawrnne bigger price inne-runne....  small e/w on Mulholland second stringge Sky Blue Ribbon 66/1 #djustinne#case  lookes bigge price, cant rule outte on just secondde hurdles go...  #mefawttes   gl alles :)

I think the card at Perth is just as interesting, probably more, than Ffos Las was today.

Only one I have backed is Ar Ais Aris. He was outspeeded by Old Coast Road in his point with subsequent winners in behind. That looks strong form in the context of this race. He made my point list, and he might be a bit of a bargain at 60,000. Having been taken out twice - once on good ground - he subsequently went off favourite on bumper debut. Given the race was run at a crawl, and he was keen, it is possible he did quite well to finish fourth. He should be more of a force over obstacles, and I hope they send him forward as he looks very much stamina over speed. It will be disappointing if he can't be competitive. Early days, but the stable seems in better shape than last season. Eastern Fire who won a four horse burn up at Fakenham looks the obvious danger, in what hopefully, will be a different sort of test.

Market not great for Ar Ais Aris, although we saw with Desertmore News that it doesn't always get things right. A few minutes after I posted it went from 100/30-15/8, but now shunted out to 7/2. It seems to be suggesting Eastern Shore might have too much toe, but let's hope that Fox can run the sting out of it.

We are seeing a number of courses at the moment with long straights - Chepstow, Ffos Las, Perth - which lend themselves to the Skelton hold-up rides. If other trainers want to compete they need to have their horses fit enough to make sure the Skelton team are not just allowed to come there swinging with a full tank of petrol. If they don't do that, most of the time the result will be inevitable.

Very disappointing. Fox has just dawdled round. Unless you stretch your rivals you are a sitting duck, and the horse looked paceless at the end. The only 'unlucky' bit was Bowen riding the Murphy horse a lot closer to the pace than is often the case.

punting curly's horses when the southern boys come up...asking for trouble imo

Well it wasn't today, but I wasn't overly surprised at the ride.

Skelton no doubt pleased with Sinnatra and Kabral Du Mathan. Sinnatra is the much bigger model. Difficult to know what either actually achieved in terms of form. Bowen reverted to type, and didn't seem overly interested in trying to give the leader a race.

usual beginners chase

Bowen probably now the most frustrating jockey to watch I think I've ever seen. It's like he decides before a race that there's a particular spot he's gonna eventually ask the horse to go, no matter where he is placed in the race at that stage.

Annoying when a stable wins with the 'wrong one's'. No different from Fox, but this one had a bit more speed, and this time Bowen decided to sit off the leader.

Ferocimo won nicely at Fontwell. Strange performance from Crushalion. Appears as if he wants a three mile straight track?

People will debate the Grand National still being a thing.

should have been on the deck that brogan thing

Sam Ewing to ride all Philip Polly's horses this season. A few decent ones to look forward to. No doubt they'll want to hit the ground running at Down Royal.

Assume that is in Ireland MJK?

The Nicholls horse in the Newton Abbot bumper has a nice pedigree on the dam's side. It's the Jezki family that Harrington has done very well with. Nathaniel seems to be siring more potential jumpers. He is relatively weak in the market, and I haven't backed anything. Just a few darts at Ascot. Not the luckiest of weeks getting the wrong Russell horse, and then having one at a decent price just beaten in Uttoxter's bumper. That would have been nice.

Oct 17, 2026 -- 11:28AM, sageform wrote:

Assume that is in Ireland MJK?

affordale fury

The Nicholls bumper horse at NA is very interesting. John Romans does not buy many duds and Havanotherguinness was in training in the spring so should have more knowhow than some.

Probably the best horse in the race, but jock being unable to keep him straight turning in, has cost him the race. Meanwhile Twister riding a finish as if his life depended on it. Bookmakers delighted with his afternoon's efforts.

JPR Two looked very ordinary for Romans/Nicholls last season.

#atteMJK, that Mourne Crystal entered in 2.01 Ffos las next Thurs, 22nd Oct  :)

Gordon Elliott hosse Porcupine Bank runne todaye in 5.50 at Far Hills, in $75bagges race,  andde finisjhedde lasdte of five atte 4/11 in thatte 2m 1f hurdle stakes affaire..    lookingge at formme/breedingge1 of PB, woulda prolly been worthe a laye 2daye running on the soft going there

Cheers Von

Is Ben Jones suspended/injured at the moment? Not the first time he seems to have 'disappeared'.

He is booked for 5 rides at Fontwell on Wednesday!!

Thanks, maybe all will be revealed. He rode Anniversary on debut, and that runs tomorrow. You would have expected him to be on board again.

Looks a competitive Friday cheltenham card anybody heard if they are watering ?, have a soft spot for JPR One but I think it's probably a stepping stone to Musselburgh on new years day as that race ticks all his boxes...anybody heard anything foe the weekend ?.

They have been watering since August.
Currently good,good to firm in places.
Rain in the forecast this week.