Could someone please post this article from the RP? With thanks

hands-and-heels ride, not seeming to have an overly hard race, and the trainer suggested afterwards she is likely to head the same way as her half-sister and line up in the Albany Stakes a week on Friday.

I’m no physician, but even in simple terms we all know as human beings we share many of the physical and personality traits of our ancestors. These are characteristics that are programmed in our DNA, passed down through generations via genes that build up our bodies.

Again, we all know this is the same for the thoroughbred, with offspring taking on characteristics of their sire, dam and others in their family lineage. But can pedigree analysis help us as punters?

Pedigrees can be a deep dive, but on a basic level I do believe that having a strong handle on a horse’s bloodline can provide us with betting opportunities. Clearly, it’s never an exact science, but on various levels pedigree can be used as a predictive tool, whether that’s in relation to potential ability level, preferred ground conditions, likely distance requirements and/or the stage of their career that they might peak. 

My own way of going about this is, admittedly, rather laborious but when a horse starts its career I try to make as many notes as possible on all of these considerations so that I always have them to hand. Sire statistics are easily accessible and over time you get a good foundation knowledge of stallions anyway, so I tend to focus more with note keeping on the dam herself, other progeny she has and, if she has only one or two foals on the ground, then go further back in the pedigree to the granddam and her progeny.

I’ll note down the stage of their careers when they came to hand – some families are precocious and others mature late – the peak ratings of those horses in the family, whether there is any notable preference for a given surface and also more nuanced factors such as temperament or behavioural traits if there is a theme I’ve spotted.

This is a lot of work but I find that it helps me to contextualise a given performance rather than just looking at it through the black and white prism of the form book, and it’s an area I regularly refer back to both in pre-race analysis and when we’re going to the sales to buy horses.

There are many examples of when you watch a replay and the horse doesn’t necessarily knock the eye out directly with how it shapes, but when adding in the context of what it's bred for, you can be significantly more positive. If you’re on the right track, you’ll often get a bigger price before the horse is proven, for example, over the distance or under the ground conditions you expect it to relish.

As with most things in racing and betting, there are also occasions when the pedigree might make you more negative about a horse’s prospects on the day. In fact, at 5.01pm a message flashed up on a WhatsApp group with some like-minded punters simply stating: “Something by Cotai Glory is odds-on fav for the first juvenile hurdle at Hexham!” Another immediately replied: “Laid it. Hard-pulling 10f horse. Hopefully some of the others can jump.”

It’s an insight into the quick thought process, involving the pedigree, that might lean you to having a bet.


Sallaal: Epsom winner could prove competitive at top level
Credit: Getty Images
Looking back at some notable Epsom winners, Sallaal's handicap victory on Friday was a genuinely high-class performance to defy a rating of 107 in style. He’s by Frankel, out of the Group 1-winning mare Nahrain, who has produced the multiple Group 1 winner Benbatl and a 1,000 Guineas winner in Elmalka.

It’s a top-class pedigree and for me that gives additional substance to his performance. It’s taken time and a gelding operation has worked positively, but he is now conforming to his pedigree and I suspect he’ll win in Pattern company this summer and might even be very competitive at the top level himself.

It’s not controversial to say that Bay City Roller’s career-best performance to shock Calandagan and Jan Brueghel was markedly influenced by the worsening conditions at Epsom, but again, if you dig into his pedigree, it’s not surprising he is capable of an even higher level of form on testing ground. Across the board there’s not a strong bias for progeny of New Bay ground-wise, but he was a heavy-ground winner himself and the mare, Bloomfield, won two Listed events on heavy and soft-to-heavy going.

This doesn’t really help any punter out there now but, interestingly, Joseph O’Brien has an unraced half-sister to Bay City Roller, named Blooming Rose, declared to make her debut in a maiden at Leopardstown on Thursday, so it’s certainly worth noting the soft-ground tendency of the family as far as she’s concerned.

Bloomfield made a winning debut herself, as did Bay City Roller, while her other two foals to have run both finished good seconds on their respective debuts. I’ll be tuning in for that.

Scanning the other entries for later this week in Britain, there are a couple of horses I have positive notes on from the pedigree side indicating they can do better this season.

On Thursday at Newbury, we see the return of Sydney Rock, a daughter of Australia out of the mare Star Rock, who herself progressed markedly in her three-year-old season from an initial rating of 80 to winning at Listed level in the autumn.

Last year her son Scarlet Moon won four handicaps up to 1m6f and a juvenile hurdle so this is a family that gets better with time and distance. With that in mind, it was highly promising that Sydney Rock finished second three times as a juvenile. She is running over a mile for her comeback and may excel over even further but is a filly who I expect to have a progressive year.

Edwin Hubble, entered at Sandown on Friday, is out of Kaladena, who ran only as a three-year-old (including a seven-length maiden win) and has produced two black-type performers in Kalapour and Kalaxana, both of whom improved significantly with time and as they stepped up in distance. This is an Aga Khan family that goes back to Kalanisi and I would hope Edwin Hubble will prove better than a rating of 77 at some point this year. Most of the family are fast-ground horses.


Light Of Dawn: Carlisle winner is on course for the Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot
Credit: John Grossick (racingpost.com/photos)
I was also up at Carlisle on Monday and saw Karl Burke’s filly Light Of Dawn make a winning debut in the Wathnan silks. An athletic sort who impressed with her temperament, she is out of the Listed-winning juvenile An Ghalanta and maintained that mare’s record of producing winners with every single one of her 11 foals thus far.

That includes Miaharris, who was also successful on her debut before winning in Listed company next time; Time Scale, who won her maiden easily at the second attempt and then went on to Listed success in the summer of her two-year-old season; and, perhaps most interestingly, Bletchley, who also made a winning start in early June as a juvenile just 16 days before a short-head second in the Albany at Royal Ascot.

Light Of Dawn was ridden with confidence by James Doyle and quickened smartly from behind her three rivals under a hands-and-heels ride, not seeming to have an overly hard race, and the trainer suggested afterwards she is likely to head the same way as her half-sister and line up in the Albany Stakes a week on Friday.

Thank you, botr.  Appreciated.