Market Form

In a word, NO.

It would be a flagrant breach of the Betfair Community - Conditions of use as evidenced below...

4.  All users of the Betfair Community agree not to post any item or any links to content that TSEG deems:

d) to contain any form of advertising, promotional materials or any form of commercial activity.

In a word, NO.

It would be a flagrant breach of the Betfair Community - Conditions of use as evidenced below...

4.  All users of the Betfair Community agree not to post any item or any links to content that TSEG deems:

d) to contain any form of advertising, promotional materials or any form of commercial activity;

Jump around a bit and sell it on tiktok, loads of mugs on there.

Stick it up
Nowt to lose
Loads others do it

How much is this one a month ??

28 days free so nothing. Totally get that. This is an info platform, and the correct people to take a look are in this community so it's very difficult to explain without breaking any rules I guess!

Market Form records horses betting histories and relates it to today's live markets. A very simple example would be a drifting favourite 13/8 out to 5/2. You know little other than the horse is weak but if I told you we have that same horse recorded as drifting like this 4 times previously and failing to finish in the first two on all four occasions, it becomes very interesting. There is lots to unpack with it.

Genuinely not trying to "sell anything" especially to mugs. Just any feedback from fellow pros on the concept and the invention of a new form book would be greatful that is all.

The Two Ronnies  Joined: 09 Jan 04 | Topic/replies: 13,856 | Blogger: The Two Ronnies blog

06 Aug 26 08:15

                                                                                                                     
Greatful?



Wot, no spellchecker?

Ok I see I may have misjudged this platform

Do you record trainers betting histories and relate that to the days live market ?

Yes, horse, trainer and owner

If you say the word GULLIBLE really, really slowly, it sounds like ORANGES

Here is a good example. A couple of tweets yesterday - The 16:00 at Brighton: Tony Carroll on fire as mentioned but the race has a curve ball.

Kathy Turner's It's Life is very interesting

This stable hits at a 33.3% strike rate when pulling off a severe >15% market move.

When they backed this horse before it won at 22/1


Kento in the 17:00 at Brighton:

I'd personally look to avoid it. 3/4 times when this horse has drifted like today's 13/8 OUT 5/2 he has failed to finish inside the top 2.

He is currently favourite

its an interesting angle.From what time point do you start recording the prices ? i notice in todays first race (2.20) you have Decalogue down as having heavy, sustained support 19.0 - 9.6, but only £370 out of £5,700 has been matched on this horse. surely the most significant money is bet close to the off ?
it wouldnt be difficult to record the finishing positions of the late gambles each day, build up a data base, and wait to see if they shorten the next time.

I use Bookmaker data. Not exchange. I track 31 bookmakers.

Those are the very very basics of what you can achieve with Market Form. I genuinely think this is a serious added layer for punters. Stable gambles all in one place - not just that they are being backed but for example, did you know that Tony Carroll has an 83% strike rate when his horses are backed 20pp (probability points) or more from Opening price to 10am? Or James Owen 80% strike rate using the same measurements.

It's not just trainers, individual horses have patterns too. And there is so much to explore

With bookmkaers it's actually been the opposite. The most telling money has been between open price - I use 12 midnight on raceday - 10am which provides the most insight and accurate patterns.

The big thing I wanted to do when starting this was ensure the punter can get on and get value rather than being too late and giving hindsight. 10am has become a very good anchor. Everything is stress tested to sp as well.

It really depends what type of punter you are. You can use this if you're an exchange punter. There are stacks of back to lay opportunities using the data and then being savvy with Exchange prices.

For example, there are a list of horses on there on the LAY angles page where they are constantly supported from open to 10am but drift out by SP.

Things like - HORSE WATCH: This horse weakened during the final market stages on 2 previous occasions and finished unplaced every time. Another late drift would repeat that negative pattern.

Or, this horse has never defied a drift of x PP. Same the other way, this horse has never won unless it has triggered x amount of pp support.

"did you know that Tony Carroll has an 83% strike rate when his horses are backed 20pp (probability points) or more from Opening price to 10am? Or James Owen 80% strike rate using the same measurements."

what is the sample size of these 2 statistics ?

Very small at the moment as you can imagine this is still in data collection.

Carroll - open to 1pm


Bracket    Bets    Wins    SR%    1PM P/L    SP P/L
5pp+    118    27    22.9%    -27.2    -31.4
10pp+    47    18    38.3%    +3.3    +3.9
15pp+    21    8    38.1%    -3.3    -2.9
20pp+    6    5    83.3%    +4.7    +5.5

Owen - Open to 1pm

Bracket    Bets    Wins    SR%    1PM P/L    SP P/L
5pp+    163    52    31.9%    -14.3    -15.1
10pp+    84    33    39.3%    +2.1    +0.2
15pp+    35    18    51.4%    +7.1    +5.4
20pp+    10    8    80%    +6.9    +5.9

Just to clarify, it's not something to back blindly, but an added information layer to use alongside the current form book.

Okay, you have told us about Its Life yesterday. Can you give us one upfront ?

cant judge on 1 tip. 300 would be the minimum required !

Carroll - Historical trainer days: 177
Average runners per day: 4.1
Average supported runners: 1.5
When 2+ runners are backed: 60.0% of days won.

Owen - Historical trainer days: 204
Average runners per day: 3.5
Average supported runners: 1.5
When 2+ runners are backed: 58.3% of days won.

This is jsut the information on the stable gamble page. On that same page then you would click the horse row and it will say something like - THIS HORSE HAS BEEN BACKED LIKE THIS 4 TIMES PREVIOUSLY IN ITS CAREER, FINISHING: [5th, 4th, 10th, 7th]. ITS STRONGEST PERFORMANCES HAVE COME WHEN BACKED BY 15PP OR MORE.

But there is far more trainer information from the search feature.

Brians it's free for 28 days

Il come back when the "repeat winner signals" go live at 10:15 and let you know what they are.

Remember its not a tipping platform but an information platform.

There is so much to get stuck into. Even the basics have never been covered before.

For example, when a horse is drifting at the top of the market from say the William Haggas yard, everyone is guessing to what it has typically meant. Here you have clear instruction of what to expect.


Market Shift    Runs    Wins    Backed SR%    Baseline
+3pp+ Shift (15%+)    136    41    30.1%    18.8%
+5pp+ Shift (20%+)    96    32    33.3%    18.8%
+8pp+ Shift (30%+)    57    22    38.6%    18.8%
+12pp+ Shift (40%+)    32    10    31.3%    18.8%
+15pp+ Shift (50%+)    21    8    38.1%    18.8%


Market Shift    Runs    Wins    Drift SR%    Baseline
3pp+ Drift (15%+)    118    14    11.9%    18.8%
5pp+ Drift (20%+)    83    12    14.5%    18.8%
8pp+ Drift (30%+)    48    8    16.7%    18.8%
12pp+ Drift (40%+)    20    3    15%    18.8%
15pp+ Drift (50%+)    14    0    0%    18.8%

How did you get on at goodwood with this system, what were the results

a horses price doesnt move in a single one direction straight line, so your stats depend entirely from where your starting and finishing point is. A horse can go from 3.25...3.75....3.0....3.5 in the last 10 mins, so at one point it was a big shortener, but ultimately a drifter.

Yes of course and that is all recorded.

"How did you get on at goodwood with this system, what were the results"

short term variance applies to everyone

Again, this is not a system, this is data information. Just like sectionals, just like the form book.

Let's take a look at the "Glorious" Goodwood from
@DarylCarter7
...
20 tips
2 winners
1 place
17 LOSERS
-16.3pts
Horrific

Do you not want to do the rest of the year? or the last six years combined Jack? No, didn't think so, what about this week? What about Royal Ascot? What about Cheltenham? NO exactly you are a clueless idiot.

You can build and run your own systems on the site.

Take a look. The point being is that you don't know what it means when any horse drifts before the off t-15 or between open and 10am. Or any horse is backed. The same way you don't know if a horse has been backed like this in the past to result in a first or second place finish.

That is all guesswork to the public

Not to judge a platform by such a small sample but two of the three people that have interacted - 1 has asked what the results where and the other wants to make a judgment on a tip - both entirely miss that I am talking about never before seen data brought to your attention.

SUPER SATURDAY complete for
@DarylCarter7
...
5 tips
5 LOSERS
-7pts
1 winner from his last 13 tips
-13.2pts over this period

You appear to be very active this morning Dc up all night again pal

Yeah its called working. Not that you would have a clue about that

2pt NAP LOSER for
@DarylCarter7
3 LOSERS from 3 tips today, -5pts Now just 1 winner from his last 11 tips, and that was 6/5

Maybe u need to try harder pal

Let's take a look at
@DarylCarter7
's famous green dots  on his
@DCNetwork111
today...
LOSER at 5/6
LOSER at 5/6
LOSER at 6/5
LOSER at 6/4
LOSER at 2/1
LOSER at 2/1
LOSER at 3/1
LOSER at 4/1
Obviously he doesn't talk about these though.
Look at those odds. Beyond tragic

You are TIP TRACKER! HAHAHAHA OMG! what a loser!

You don't even have the correct information you sket! haha so embarassing that i LIVE rent free in your head. It's touching you are wasting your life on me hahahaha

My mistake, i've stumbled upon the old forum dynamic where people can't talk about analytical data and confuse it. My fault.

Looks preferable to wasting his cash to you tbh!!

Bitter, losers that cannot make the game pay. See ya

F/O SPAMMER

He must know plenty of bitter losers if his tipping is any guide.

For the record i am not tip tracker pal

Indeed

Dcracing- don't be offended. This forum is full of hardened, cynical, mainly losing gamblers who've seen it all before. We expect proof BUT-the saying that is to the forefront is "A goose that lays golden eggs is NEVER for sale!" As interesting as your approach is, if it's successful you'll have no need to sell it as you'll be making squillions, & could retire to Barbados like the infamous forumite Baulked, whose system NEVER lost a bet. Rumour has it that he can still be seen relaxing by the pool being served pina coladas by beautiful dusky maidens.  Chancers on here get short shrift.

I'm banned by this fat,little hardman on twitter...still like to know the truth about what betfair binned him overnight...must have been potentially quite serious..

TBF this sounds like an interesting idea, even if I would never dream of paying anything for the service. (yeh, it's free, then it prob wouldn't be...unless you are a charity operation?)

But, it might have gone down better as a thread if he hadn't rapidly turned into aggression against some of the replies, a bit like those videos at a pub he posted in the past - being able to offer to fight someone isn't a great sales pitch!

Daryl Carter
@DarylCarter7
1h

Are there any decent platforms that have an actual interest in horse racing betting: Tried the Betfair Forum, waste of time, anywhere else where ideas and genuine conversation take place?

Don't be deturd!

Winner,winner chicken dinner.

Would be an interesting test race 2.38 Tony Carroll’s River Wharfe,but betting support for Spirited Dancer,for an outsider Apples Angel

river wharfe opened up 7/2, £4 matched , went 3/1. the overnight/early markets are woeful.

Points to Spirited if u follow betting movement,Red Wharfe has winning form and Apples Angel has that surprise element.

It's an awful race in general, though jollie should win unless affected by 1 day turnaround.

Apples Angel has that surprise element.

Agree on that one, price too big.

Surprised he aint tracking from 5pm when markets go up, plenty of huge moves between then and midnight.

To be fair, it could be a useful tool to combine with your form study. How many years of data?

This isn't a bad analysis approach, but one thought hits me - if you did this research and it was a goldmine, I don't think you'd be offering this service.

Instead you'd be secretly creaming the markets in the background.

You don't have to be Einstein to reach that conclusion,stu

DC weighs in on Fortitudine's performance last night. He bets it's an overreaction? Yeah, because a full brother to a top class horse running out a 21L winner on debut isn't anything special, it happens every week! lol The horse will go off odds on next time out so let's see DC put his money where his mouth is and post his lay bet

It is another angle he is offering on his service.

Though he let's himself down with his mouth, I think he knows his apples.

If he went about his business quietly and stayed away from social media he could do well for himself.

Some hope,brandy

Agreed, Irons.
He is above his station.
Maybe will calm down with age.

Knocking the forum yet has never contributed anything of any note to it. Nothing stopping him or all the other "professional gamblers" who give it the big one, coming on here and starting thread and giving a bit back. Instead the only time they come on here is when they're looking for subs for their tipping services & sign ups for bookies they work for.

A snapshot of a typical day on Market Form

BEST BACKED
Hello You Ten
03:30 Newmarket (July)
+56.2% (17.000 → 7.45)
Strongest market support today

REPEAT SIGNAL
Born A Rebel
02:20 Newmarket (July)
100% repeat strike (1 runs)

STRONG FAV
Fast Performer
03:30 Newmarket (July)
+22.5% (2.250 → 1.743)
Strong favourite being backed

WEAK FAV
Stormy Music
02:20 Newmarket (July)
-33% (4.500 → 5.983)
Market weakness — confidence dropping

Time to get the Cement Mixer out of the Garage, DC

He'll struggle putting scaffold up with a cement mixer.

Maybe bare-knuckle boxing at the shows..