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Hi all, Daryl Carter here, have created a new form book in horse racing called Market Form, would love some feedback. Not sure if I am able to put a link in here on not??
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In a word, NO.
It would be a flagrant breach of the Betfair Community - Conditions of use as evidenced below... 4. All users of the Betfair Community agree not to post any item or any links to content that TSEG deems: d) to contain any form of advertising, promotional materials or any form of commercial activity. |
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In a word, NO.
It would be a flagrant breach of the Betfair Community - Conditions of use as evidenced below... 4. All users of the Betfair Community agree not to post any item or any links to content that TSEG deems: d) to contain any form of advertising, promotional materials or any form of commercial activity; |
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Jump around a bit and sell it on tiktok, loads of mugs on there.
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Stick it up
Nowt to lose Loads others do it |
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How much is this one a month ??
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28 days free so nothing. Totally get that. This is an info platform, and the correct people to take a look are in this community so it's very difficult to explain without breaking any rules I guess!
Market Form records horses betting histories and relates it to today's live markets. A very simple example would be a drifting favourite 13/8 out to 5/2. You know little other than the horse is weak but if I told you we have that same horse recorded as drifting like this 4 times previously and failing to finish in the first two on all four occasions, it becomes very interesting. There is lots to unpack with it. |
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Genuinely not trying to "sell anything" especially to mugs. Just any feedback from fellow pros on the concept and the invention of a new form book would be greatful that is all.
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Ok I see I may have misjudged this platform
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Do you record trainers betting histories and relate that to the days live market ?
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Yes, horse, trainer and owner
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If you say the word GULLIBLE really, really slowly, it sounds like ORANGES
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Here is a good example. A couple of tweets yesterday - The 16:00 at Brighton: Tony Carroll on fire as mentioned but the race has a curve ball.
Kathy Turner's It's Life is very interesting This stable hits at a 33.3% strike rate when pulling off a severe >15% market move. When they backed this horse before it won at 22/1 Kento in the 17:00 at Brighton: I'd personally look to avoid it. 3/4 times when this horse has drifted like today's 13/8 OUT 5/2 he has failed to finish inside the top 2. He is currently favourite |
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its an interesting angle.From what time point do you start recording the prices ? i notice in todays first race (2.20) you have Decalogue down as having heavy, sustained support 19.0 - 9.6, but only £370 out of £5,700 has been matched on this horse. surely the most significant money is bet close to the off ?
it wouldnt be difficult to record the finishing positions of the late gambles each day, build up a data base, and wait to see if they shorten the next time. |
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I use Bookmaker data. Not exchange. I track 31 bookmakers.
Those are the very very basics of what you can achieve with Market Form. I genuinely think this is a serious added layer for punters. Stable gambles all in one place - not just that they are being backed but for example, did you know that Tony Carroll has an 83% strike rate when his horses are backed 20pp (probability points) or more from Opening price to 10am? Or James Owen 80% strike rate using the same measurements. It's not just trainers, individual horses have patterns too. And there is so much to explore |
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With bookmkaers it's actually been the opposite. The most telling money has been between open price - I use 12 midnight on raceday - 10am which provides the most insight and accurate patterns.
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The big thing I wanted to do when starting this was ensure the punter can get on and get value rather than being too late and giving hindsight. 10am has become a very good anchor. Everything is stress tested to sp as well.
It really depends what type of punter you are. You can use this if you're an exchange punter. There are stacks of back to lay opportunities using the data and then being savvy with Exchange prices. For example, there are a list of horses on there on the LAY angles page where they are constantly supported from open to 10am but drift out by SP. |
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Things like - HORSE WATCH: This horse weakened during the final market stages on 2 previous occasions and finished unplaced every time. Another late drift would repeat that negative pattern.
Or, this horse has never defied a drift of x PP. Same the other way, this horse has never won unless it has triggered x amount of pp support. |
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"did you know that Tony Carroll has an 83% strike rate when his horses are backed 20pp (probability points) or more from Opening price to 10am? Or James Owen 80% strike rate using the same measurements."
what is the sample size of these 2 statistics ? |
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Very small at the moment as you can imagine this is still in data collection.
Carroll - open to 1pm Bracket Bets Wins SR% 1PM P/L SP P/L 5pp+ 118 27 22.9% -27.2 -31.4 10pp+ 47 18 38.3% +3.3 +3.9 15pp+ 21 8 38.1% -3.3 -2.9 20pp+ 6 5 83.3% +4.7 +5.5 Owen - Open to 1pm Bracket Bets Wins SR% 1PM P/L SP P/L 5pp+ 163 52 31.9% -14.3 -15.1 10pp+ 84 33 39.3% +2.1 +0.2 15pp+ 35 18 51.4% +7.1 +5.4 20pp+ 10 8 80% +6.9 +5.9 |
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Just to clarify, it's not something to back blindly, but an added information layer to use alongside the current form book.
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Okay, you have told us about Its Life yesterday. Can you give us one upfront ?
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cant judge on 1 tip. 300 would be the minimum required !
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Carroll - Historical trainer days: 177
Average runners per day: 4.1 Average supported runners: 1.5 When 2+ runners are backed: 60.0% of days won. Owen - Historical trainer days: 204 Average runners per day: 3.5 Average supported runners: 1.5 When 2+ runners are backed: 58.3% of days won. This is jsut the information on the stable gamble page. On that same page then you would click the horse row and it will say something like - THIS HORSE HAS BEEN BACKED LIKE THIS 4 TIMES PREVIOUSLY IN ITS CAREER, FINISHING: [5th, 4th, 10th, 7th]. ITS STRONGEST PERFORMANCES HAVE COME WHEN BACKED BY 15PP OR MORE. But there is far more trainer information from the search feature. Brians it's free for 28 days Il come back when the "repeat winner signals" go live at 10:15 and let you know what they are. Remember its not a tipping platform but an information platform. |
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There is so much to get stuck into. Even the basics have never been covered before.
For example, when a horse is drifting at the top of the market from say the William Haggas yard, everyone is guessing to what it has typically meant. Here you have clear instruction of what to expect. Market Shift Runs Wins Backed SR% Baseline +3pp+ Shift (15%+) 136 41 30.1% 18.8% +5pp+ Shift (20%+) 96 32 33.3% 18.8% +8pp+ Shift (30%+) 57 22 38.6% 18.8% +12pp+ Shift (40%+) 32 10 31.3% 18.8% +15pp+ Shift (50%+) 21 8 38.1% 18.8% Market Shift Runs Wins Drift SR% Baseline 3pp+ Drift (15%+) 118 14 11.9% 18.8% 5pp+ Drift (20%+) 83 12 14.5% 18.8% 8pp+ Drift (30%+) 48 8 16.7% 18.8% 12pp+ Drift (40%+) 20 3 15% 18.8% 15pp+ Drift (50%+) 14 0 0% 18.8% |
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How did you get on at goodwood with this system, what were the results
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a horses price doesnt move in a single one direction straight line, so your stats depend entirely from where your starting and finishing point is. A horse can go from 3.25...3.75....3.0....3.5 in the last 10 mins, so at one point it was a big shortener, but ultimately a drifter.
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Yes of course and that is all recorded.
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"How did you get on at goodwood with this system, what were the results"
short term variance applies to everyone |
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Again, this is not a system, this is data information. Just like sectionals, just like the form book.
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Let's take a look at the "Glorious" Goodwood from
@DarylCarter7 ... 20 tips 2 winners 1 place 17 LOSERS -16.3pts Horrific |
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Do you not want to do the rest of the year? or the last six years combined Jack? No, didn't think so, what about this week? What about Royal Ascot? What about Cheltenham? NO exactly you are a clueless idiot.
You can build and run your own systems on the site. Take a look. The point being is that you don't know what it means when any horse drifts before the off t-15 or between open and 10am. Or any horse is backed. The same way you don't know if a horse has been backed like this in the past to result in a first or second place finish. That is all guesswork to the public Not to judge a platform by such a small sample but two of the three people that have interacted - 1 has asked what the results where and the other wants to make a judgment on a tip - both entirely miss that I am talking about never before seen data brought to your attention. |
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SUPER SATURDAY complete for
@DarylCarter7 ... 5 tips 5 LOSERS -7pts 1 winner from his last 13 tips -13.2pts over this period |
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You appear to be very active this morning Dc up all night again pal
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Yeah its called working. Not that you would have a clue about that
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2pt NAP LOSER for
@DarylCarter7 3 LOSERS from 3 tips today, -5pts Now just 1 winner from his last 11 tips, and that was 6/5 Maybe u need to try harder pal |
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Let's take a look at
@DarylCarter7 's famous green dots on his @DCNetwork111 today... LOSER at 5/6 LOSER at 5/6 LOSER at 6/5 LOSER at 6/4 LOSER at 2/1 LOSER at 2/1 LOSER at 3/1 LOSER at 4/1 Obviously he doesn't talk about these though. Look at those odds. Beyond tragic |
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You are TIP TRACKER! HAHAHAHA OMG! what a loser!
You don't even have the correct information you sket! haha so embarassing that i LIVE rent free in your head. It's touching you are wasting your life on me hahahaha |
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My mistake, i've stumbled upon the old forum dynamic where people can't talk about analytical data and confuse it. My fault.
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