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Biggest Sports Bet Certainly Ever !
Biggest Sports Bet Certainly Ever !
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Replies: 79
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1. Whatte issee theee 0therer user$$name## yousse hidingeee# behindee#?
2. Dooo u### chea##tee at## scrabble##? |
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is this irish thing similar to aussie rules fitba
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Lost my conkers today , couldn’t see this young Mayo team beating a very experienced Kerry team .
A crossroads moment in my punting life , I had my biggest bet ever on Kerry at 1/3 to lift the cup before the match at 1/3 (1200) and had half that stake again at half time at 1/2 (600) . It will take me a bit of time to recover financially but I will but I said to myself if I got this wrong which I have I will never again bet so that’s where I’m going , I enjoyed my punting days and was probably a small loser over the course of a year but the 2026 all ireland blew my figures out of the water in a bad way , sorry to anyone that followed me in backing Kerry and best of luck to everyone in the years ahead … over and out Timberman |
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Reload TIMBER , Punt yer way out
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have a puntingge
 #sabbatikile or summitte, timber, insteadde can startte againne nxt yr, or month #perjhappesse  #havta#hava#hobby :) |
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ya losing b x ya timberman hehe i was the one who laid Kerry to lose!! and won BIG on Mayo!!! up Mayo!!!!
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Timberman
Just seen this after looking at the divison 1 naps table post, sorry to read your news. It happens to all punters at some point; ignore the after-timers who come out of the woodwork after the event. Take a break from the game and good luck. |
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No need to give up punting but OP should step back to figure out where it went wrong.
In particular, to distinguish between relevant reasons for backing Kerry from bull-stuff ones like 75 years of hurt, or Kerry winning last year, and especially that Kerry were strong favourites. Beware of what I call the Harry Findlay fallacy, based on the great man's book. It is easy to slip from X is a certainty and therefore odds-on, to believing that because Y is odds-on, Y must be a certainty. That's the most dangerous thing in punting because most of the time, it works. Most of the time the odds-on favourite will win, even if you've backed it at 1/3 when it should only have been 1/2. Most of the time bad punting like this will be rewarded. But not all the time. And crucially, not this time. And never go all in. Good luck OP. |
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It is amazing how many of these easy money/certainties posts end up this way but well done Timberman for coming back to face the music (and no greening up
). Take a few days off but come back with the help of the experience you've just had. |
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timberman bad luck but you will find it hard to give up its a big blow but i would just treat it as another loser we all get plenty of them. read ramrunas post and regarding the odds on scenario and take that on board .
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i think im good at identifying value short prices..but if i bet 10 x 1.1's that imo shud be 1.05 its a certainty 1 will fail.
its not easy. |
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thought these games normally finished in a draw so the GAA could sell another 82,000 tickets for the replay ?
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Tough to take Timberman, would just like to point out that you never said that it was a certainty, just that it was your biggest sports bet certainly ever.
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A man who takes his chance, deems something a play and loses. Happens to us all. The fact he returned to the thread, owned his losses and also admitted to getting it wrong shows the character of the man. I was in agreement with his selection and also lost.
We have all done it hundreds of times. We win, we lose, we get unlucky or we hit the crossbar. That is the game. Every credit to the OP.....I personally wish him the best of luck and health in the future whether he continues to punt or not. Be lucky OP |
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Returned to the forum just to say farewell to fellow old timer Timberman who it appears has been on here for 19 years. Nice to see some sympathy for a change. We've all been there taking a strong position not knowing the Gods of Wagering are against us. One cannot legislate for a team or a horse not performing which is why we punters almost certainly cannot win in the long term & the bookies do so well. I learnt a long time ago NOT to touch Gaelic sports or Irish racing with a mile long bargepole. Acts of God happen too often on that side of the Irish sea. If you're serious about giving up, just treat your losses a a contribution to an expensive hobby & move on. If not, just learn the lesson & tone down your bets treating it all as just a small pastime. Whichever you do, good luck.
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what a way to be carried out on your shield ,beaten by a game from a ARRY POTTER MOVIE
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With inside information or some kind of other edge, winning long term in sport is very difficult.
There are much better events to bet on, but then you meet with an insurmountable challenge, nobody wants to take you on. |
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Cider- you mean like the knowledgeable inside info that Willie Thorn had when commentating for the Beeb that John Parrott had lost his cue. Thorn, a fellow professional, lost 38 grand. In my whole life, I've only ever had 1 piece of inside information. That was on a horse that was 20/1 on opening, started at 7/1 & won going away. Most of the time the horses trainers have no idea if their horses are going to win. Hence The Same Trainer Syndrome where the O'Brien 3rd string outsider beats the strongly fancied short priced O' Brien fave. Also applies to The Boys In Blue Godaweful stable.
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Inside info doesn't mean you're guaranteed to win. My argument is that most people can't win long term without it.
Greed is actually a huge factor, and those with a genuine edge feel compelled to win large. And if you are lucky enough to have enough judgement to beat the market, it doesn't end there. Hubris can still get you then. And not being able to get bets taken, as I've alluded to. |
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I'm pretty open about it on here, I was a pretty average punter, maybe slightly above average but certainly not a big winner on horses. Then a sliding doors type coincidental moment changed my punting life. Now I face the last, insurmountable challenge! But it's been a bl00dy awesome ride.
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you can say that again, especially with nags
i was told a norse wasnt winning by the trainer. course it won did everyhting in, and i mean everything and hot chick gave me the sack for being a mug people on the other hand. had some good ones. pfa awards was one and spoty another. the only prob was getting enough on |
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Agree with everything there, Cider. If one takes a look at betting company profits, independent bookies house & cars- "They didn't get these on winning punters!" There is only one form of gambling where a punter had a good chance of winning. And now those in control have found a way to stamp that out. Form doesn't work, statistics don't work, opinion doesn't work. In other words- "Itcan'tbedone!" by most. And the very few who can do it are not to be found on these forums.
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May as well be printing money at the peak. Acts scheduled to perform live at the Brits almost certainly had the nod that they were getting a gong. Otherwise they wouldn't be turning up to perform. But plenty of bookies still priced it up. Infamously I collected at 17 different bookies on a whole multitude of bets for the royal wedding. They weren't all guaranteed to win, but the tv audience ones lazily benchmarked against the Charles and Di viewing numbers. You didn't need to be an industry expert to know that viewing habits had fundamentally changed, even at that point.
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bookies got the odds on his side. he's playing with a roulette wheel, if you win he'll pay you out at 29/1. so you can never win, unless you get the odds on your side. if you do that online you won't last 5 minutes. Why ? Because he knows you'll win, and he doesn't want that.
it's not gambling, it's maths. |
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if it was anything to do with results VC aren't closing me down after 4 bets before any of them have even entered the parade ring. he's closing me down cos i ripped him a new backside with the morning prices and he didn't like that. didn't like it at all. so the odds were then on my side, not his.
they all lost. inconsequential. |
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To spare me from reading all the posts how did the bet get on? Success?
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the challenge is understandable, everyone wants everyone else's money, even your those who are nominally your mates! On this journey I've been lucky enough to have mixed online with a bunch of successful punters. Even they make lots of mistakes. As noted, it's most often hubris that gets them, rather than judgement.
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Mayo won.
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Pack in gamblin
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i stooped listen to CONNECTIONS when one day at thrisk my mate had a few low geade nags with neville bycroft and i was in the parde ring withem and they said they really fancied it,my mate said are you going to betting ring,i said yes ,he said will you put this on for neville and give me a fiver, that was my signal to leave i alone and was duely stuffed
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Thanks 'Tiger Tiger'. Seems to be the norm with a prediction like that. I think 'acey' and I have been humbled by some big calls that went horribly wrong eg France. I may have one this Wednesday at Goodwood nut, I'm keeping it to myself.
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Winning at gambling (horseracing for me) is hard work, boring, requires a "tedious" systematic approach and is far from the glorious success of the "Mayo miracle" or congratulating yourself on, say, a high-profile Ascot winner - it's just another day on the treadmill in reality.
Almost sounds like the op bankrupted himself yesterday so I would surmise he's a "problem gambler". (I do have sympathy for him nonetheless.) |
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as he got 2 grand on easy enough,plenty of people obviously new far more than the OP did
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I've got to say RA, specials and politics was the complete opposite. Hugely enjoyable. I suppose day to day discussion and thought over several months mean that you get deeply invested in the performance of your selections.
Even though the glory days are long gone, there are still terrifically enjoyable moments. There are too many great moments over the years to mention. A recent one was ukraine getting 439 points in the televote in 2022. That was something else! After weeks/months of speculating/pontificating/chest beating over Ukr, the impact of the war and the televote/jury vote. In that single moment, the debate was ended with a huge slam dunk! Whoosh! Tremendous! https://youtu.be/YirAVJ62s-E?si=W2X_dquU1NQc9Hp0&t=718 |
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2 grand nothing in Ireland on the biggest hurling final of the year
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Eny shop in Ireland would take the bet.....horses no. Hurling fa cup yes
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not sure if OP is a fan of the game or just looking for a good odds on shot to get stuck in to,but if you could get plenty on the best 2 to 5,3,s on shot,you,ll see as pointed out by a poster on here,was 2 to 5 no new winner of the world cup,basically 2 to 5 that portugal didnt win it ,with 1st 5,6 favs running for you
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Oversteaking innit...every gamblers downfall
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The green party traded 3-1 to win most seats at the next GE on the night the fake plumber won Gorton. And yes, I did 'tip' the lay. As an example of the value on the table in specials and politics.
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I wouldn't back them at 100.
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