Horse racing (stock picking system)

So e.g. in a class 1 flat race, you look for a horse that had a high rating on debut (probably most horses in that class) that has a career high rating lto?

For the flat races, we are only taking into consideration their debut rating, not their LTO rating (save that for NH). Yes, there will be cases of multiple selections, but the idea is to follow your 'picks' and not just solely to make a profit on the race.
Hope that answers your question.

ok gl but not for me, seems like you will simply burn money following horses that never fulfill potential based on first run, while the winners are short-priced and go off to stud/paddocks after very few runs.

Do you have some examples of horses that back your viewpoint? I agree there will be some horses who don't but then there will be some that do.

Had a look through the easter weekend Class 1 races and these were the qualifiers

https://www.racingpost.com/profile/horse/5073317/navassa-island/form

eventually wins at 10-1 after 17 losses in cl

https://www.racingpost.com/profile/horse/5063752/king-cuan/form

never wins in C1

https://www.racingpost.com/profile/horse/4963760/bucanero-fuerte/form

a multiple winner

https://www.racingpost.com/profile/horse/7466848/its-a-heartbeat/form

wins handicap at good price but not C1


https://www.racingpost.com/profile/horse/5104283/beautiful-diamond/form

wins several but never at a big price to cover losses


https://www.racingpost.com/profile/horse/6555395/gethin/form

break even

https://www.racingpost.com/profile/horse/5353621/military-academy/form

big loser in C1s

So not really great as far as flat is concerned. btw it isn't an outrageous theory that a horse that shows ability on debut will find wins at some level, but you have to incorporate some more factors, in particular the opposition faced and the odds available.

King Cuan has several wins (should've said Non-Hcaps rather than pattern) and is still lightly raced. Still one to watch out for.

Have refined the strategy (i think...)

Identifying horses to track

FLAT= 82+ RPR on debut (5lb F&M allowance).
NHF = 112+ RPR on debut (7lb F&M allowance), (10lb 3yo allowance).
Hurdles= 122+ RPR on debut (7lb F&M allowance), (10lb 3yo allowance).

Wait for horse to post improved RPR from it's debut RPR.
See what the market does NTO (back if fav/well supported) as liquidity will be expected (we should provide it).
Keep backing the horse from thereon whenever it posts a new career high RPR.

Any questions, please ask, I gather there will be plenty.

We can start following/backing the horse on it's 2nd run (if fav/well supported).