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Hi all,
Just thought of a different approach to betting on horses.
Rather than 'trying to crack a race', perhaps we should be creating a portfolio of horses like a stock and betting on them that way like you do a stock.
I.e. Adding class horses to the portfolio and by this I mean Initial ability of a horse (via Racing post ratings)
The following criteria should be met:
NH Racing- Initial Hurdles rating (RPR) of 130 for 4yo+. 120+ as a 3yo. Subtracting 7lbs for mares. These are DEBUT runs over hurdles only.
Then back these horses after they have posted a career high RPR LTO.
FLAT racing- Initial rating of 85+ RPR. Subtracting 5lbs for fillies. These are DEBUT runs only.
The back these horses on each run from there on.
Yes, there will be cases where we will have multiple bets per races, but remember we are investing in the HORSES, not RACES.
We should be targeting Pattern races only.
1% Unit stake of bankroll, compounding thereafter.
Please let us know what you think.
Just thought of a different approach to betting on horses.
Rather than 'trying to crack a race', perhaps we should be creating a portfolio of horses like a stock and betting on them that way like you do a stock.
I.e. Adding class horses to the portfolio and by this I mean Initial ability of a horse (via Racing post ratings)
The following criteria should be met:
NH Racing- Initial Hurdles rating (RPR) of 130 for 4yo+. 120+ as a 3yo. Subtracting 7lbs for mares. These are DEBUT runs over hurdles only.
Then back these horses after they have posted a career high RPR LTO.
FLAT racing- Initial rating of 85+ RPR. Subtracting 5lbs for fillies. These are DEBUT runs only.
The back these horses on each run from there on.
Yes, there will be cases where we will have multiple bets per races, but remember we are investing in the HORSES, not RACES.
We should be targeting Pattern races only.
1% Unit stake of bankroll, compounding thereafter.
Please let us know what you think.
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So e.g. in a class 1 flat race, you look for a horse that had a high rating on debut (probably most horses in that class) that has a career high rating lto?
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For the flat races, we are only taking into consideration their debut rating, not their LTO rating (save that for NH). Yes, there will be cases of multiple selections, but the idea is to follow your 'picks' and not just solely to make a profit on the race.
Hope that answers your question. |
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ok gl but not for me, seems like you will simply burn money following horses that never fulfill potential based on first run, while the winners are short-priced and go off to stud/paddocks after very few runs.
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Do you have some examples of horses that back your viewpoint? I agree there will be some horses who don't but then there will be some that do.
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Had a look through the easter weekend Class 1 races and these were the qualifiers
https://www.racingpost.com/profile/horse/5073317/navassa-island/form eventually wins at 10-1 after 17 losses in cl https://www.racingpost.com/profile/horse/5063752/king-cuan/form never wins in C1 https://www.racingpost.com/profile/horse/4963760/bucanero-fuerte/form a multiple winner  https://www.racingpost.com/profile/horse/7466848/its-a-heartbeat/form wins handicap at good price but not C1 https://www.racingpost.com/profile/horse/5104283/beautiful-diamond/form wins several but never at a big price to cover losses https://www.racingpost.com/profile/horse/6555395/gethin/form break even https://www.racingpost.com/profile/horse/5353621/military-academy/form big loser in C1s So not really great as far as flat is concerned. btw it isn't an outrageous theory that a horse that shows ability on debut will find wins at some level, but you have to incorporate some more factors, in particular the opposition faced and the odds available. |
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King Cuan has several wins (should've said Non-Hcaps rather than pattern) and is still lightly raced. Still one to watch out for.
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Have refined the strategy (i think...)
Identifying horses to track FLAT= 82+ RPR on debut (5lb F&M allowance). NHF = 112+ RPR on debut (7lb F&M allowance), (10lb 3yo allowance). Hurdles= 122+ RPR on debut (7lb F&M allowance), (10lb 3yo allowance). Wait for horse to post improved RPR from it's debut RPR. See what the market does NTO (back if fav/well supported) as liquidity will be expected (we should provide it). Keep backing the horse from thereon whenever it posts a new career high RPR. Any questions, please ask, I gather there will be plenty. |
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We can start following/backing the horse on it's 2nd run (if fav/well supported).
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