My OPINIONS f todays British NH.

Opinions....spot on. Best of luck

Haha your past comment made me think. Im glad you said it. Although i do believe the two are closely linked.
Thank you. Bound to have a stinker today.

You would probably be better off backing at bf sp.

royal free hospital was once very good now a carsy 2nd and 3rd division doctors there now

Barstool, this is a part of it im struggling to figure out and hoping my bro in law can point me in right direction, say once ive had 1000 selctions or something..
I have notoced a lot of my winners were availaboe at much bigger prices at tines throught the day and also as you say, bf sp has shown better at tines too.
But in the same breath, a lot of them get back in too.
I dont recorde bf or industry sp, tote etc but i might start tracking them.  Its time and other commitments that stop me. Thabks for advice.

The problem with backing at Betfair SP is that if you are backing with a significant amount at ordinary meetings , you could lower the Betfair SP considerably so comparisons with your current taking a price bets with Betfair SP will likely be misleading.

So if a horse is available for £2 to back then that is the price you give for your selection and then you use that price in order to calculate your return on investment?

Perhaps you should be using stake matched average price rather than fictitious prices that are never laid?

Loper ive backed these at the prices stated.  Similar to how hugh taylor back his at the proces available and uses those prices in his stats.
I do want to put all the prices into spreadsheet ie the isp bfsp tote etc and see what they read.  At present im only putting in what ive backed them at on the exchange so theres no fiction about any lays as they all been matched and were available at the time i put them.

I wish you luck with this project, appears a little like the "Maria" laying system in reverse.

So what is your average stake?

At what time of day did you back your first selection at 25s which is now trading at 6.4?

All I can say is try not to lose too much.

Loper i backed that forst one 15 mins before posting here. Maybe ten mins. It been walloped in hasnt it. Thought there was value in the proce when i looked at that race.  Generally it will be between 10.30 and 12.30 i place my bets.

Slickster ive never heard of the maria appoach thpugh i will certainly be looking it up.

I am finding it difficult to imagine that looking at the graph for Elusive Pb that 25s was still available at 12.00 yet was only 10s 20 mins later.

Loper am i able to post a photo on here? Im an honest man and that is definitely the proce i backed it at. Placed, but to be fair i wouldnt have backed it at the proce it went off at. Favpurite won well.

Loper. 11.50am i backed it.

TD23, if you continually beat SP by 500% then you will do even better than you already claim, it doesn't matter what your strike rate is or what ability each horse has, you will be the greatest punter of all time!

1st one goes in well done

previous 119 bets the average price of winners would have been 11.17. Thats 21 X 10/1 winners. How come todays selections are nowhere near the average price of the previous 119 ?

Hi tame

So i dont have any set preference of prices. I taoe each day as it comes and bets are placed based on many things but value being one of them.  You asked somewhere else if they were ew bets. No they are all straight win bets.
The odds of the horses i choose vary greatly.  Just todays are what they are, other days there will be huge priced horses among them. Biggest proce winner since i started tracking was 60 on the exchange so that will have boosted the average up. Hope this makes sense.

yes im thinking you must have had a couple of huge priced winners that have skewed the p/l

another couple of winners at around 30 means that 116 of your 119 bets are actually break even

Until TD23 discloses his stakes on all his bets it is not possible to calculate his Return on Investment.

im assuming its been level stakes on all horses

TD23 06 Apr 26 12:11 
Slightly later than planned as gas went off and couldnt boil kettle.

Race number - horse number - price on the exchange at time of selecting

Fakenham
1 - 4@10....unplaiced
2 - 5@24....unplaiced
3 - 1@5.8...unplaiced
4 - 2@3.95..2nd
5 - 2@4.2...unplaiced
6 - 5@2.86..won 2/1

Hereford
1 - 1@25....3rd
2 - no bet
3 - 6@9.58..2nd
4 - 6@8.....unplaiced
5 - 3@4.7...2nd
6 - 3@2.38..2nd
7 - 8@5.1...2nd

Plumpton
1 - 1@2.5...1st
2 - 1@5.6...3rd
3 - 4@4.2...won
4 - 2@15.5..unplaiced
5 - 8@11....unplaiced
6 - 3@3.65..2nd
7 - 4@1.97..2nd

tough game innit.

Gone back to Tw4tter.
Pin stikers stood in betting shops all day having a bet on every race, and it rarely ends well.

he shud have followed the forum DG today.

How did he do?

5/6 wen i looked at 4 ish.

He will wipe it as we both know.
It really is a matter of when he does.

Haha i aint on twitter and dont do pinstickers. Been to the boozer to watch my beloved boro **** up auto promotion for the umpteenth time.
Think about 50% of stakes returned today. A bad day but clawed a little back.
Yes Tame level stakes on all bets at the minute.
Will be posting them everyday, and have enjoyed reading everyones posts, so thabk you to everyone who has responded to my two posts.
Rico what is the forum DG? Dont really use this forum or any othrr so dont know what that is.
Also rico thank you for adding results to my opinions. Cheers all. Enjoy the rest of your bank holidays. UTB

DG is a degenerate gambler of which StewartyB is a life long example.

Exeter

1 - 5@40
2 - 2@16
3 - 2@8.2
4 - 5@7.6
5 - 8@7.8
6 - 2@3.65
7 - 1@8.2  favourite should easy bag this one but 3m chase anything could happen and worth taking on at the price it is. In my opinion. Debated no bet in this race.

Best of luck to all, whatever you are backing today.
Happy Tuesday.

Good luck with those.

Both meetings look like minefields this afternoon.

Thanks barstool. A Tough racing tuesday i think. Best of luck woth your selections if you are having a go today.

1st one placed at 38 bfsp 25/1 isp.  Maybe further it would have been closer. Didnt finish too far behind the winner, but wasnt the best horse on the day. Good price for a place tho.
Good luck all.

2nd one places in a messy race. Favourite flopped, gamble landed.
My selection 3rd @ 18.05 bfsp 11/1 isp.
Well done to all who were on the winner.

well done td23 nice placers

Aren't these tips win only?

I didn't expect to back them for a place?

3rd on places at 9.2 bsp and 6/1 isp.


Loper im only backing win at the moment so not a good day for me but still happy they are placing. Hopefully anyone else looking at these may have backed ew.

Thank you TD, I started to panic then!

win only but if place menchun it.

Quite the sens of humour you lot aint you?
Loper, from reading comments of yours, im pretty sure your brighter than the type to be following a randoms opinions on the internet. Especially when they could be ficticious figures as i think youve mentioned.
Im only posting them as was suggested by Reg, and for my own info.
Like ive said in previous comments i want a larger selection of results to look at to see if better off backing horses over a certain price ew.
In all honesty theyve been lucky places today.
The one in the first ill be backing if it runs over further. That ran quite well. Other two lucky.
Rico, i understand only half of what you type.
Good luck all.

a lot eager to stick the knife in , nature of the beast youll get used to it td23 keep plugging away !

Haha i understand. Albeit im enjoying the replies and criticism. If you cant take criticism, you aint much of a man.

4th one places too, although beaten out of sight.

2nd @ bsp 7.09 and isp of 5.5.

Should have done the placepot.

Good luck at deuville foyleswar.

Unfortunately TD you did come on here asking for advice as to whether your profit on turnover was merely 100% but might be higher if someone can interpret your figures for you.

cheers td23 already been lucky at deuaville so in front whatever happens good luck wi yours

never forget TD..evriwon in here is a winner..although unfortunately knott menni can proof it.

#FACT.

5th one places too at bsp of 7 and isp of 5.5

Jumped really well but tired last few furlong.

Predicting the next one wins or doesnt place

I said PLACE it on Lucky Dan - that horse is gonna run second!

6th one 2nd again but unplaced.

Took what looked like a nasty whack when the fav fell. Stayed on ok after that. Not good enpugh to beat the winner tho.

6th one 2nd again but unplaced.

Ei Ei!!!

you've got to be patient in this game!

Well done.

A healthy 28% profit on turnover.

Keep that up and you will be a top propunter in no time.

The secret is getting 7/1 about a 9/2 shot.

Do that blindly and it doesn't matter what the selection is.

Alas a winner. Id forgotten what one was.

Bsp of 10.4 and an isp of 5.5.

Small profit for the day.

Loper its no secret surely given we are on a betfair forum.

Are you calculating that profit on BSP?

Also sarcasm doesnt read well via typing. Can we put an /s at the end of anything sarcastic like the americans do? Wpuld help my autistic brain quite a lot.
It wone well in the end. Decisive move by the jpckey 3/4 out. 12 length win.

Also loper.. was it you who suggested just backing these at bfsp yesterday? If so what made you say that? Thanks.

Please point out the sarcasm.

I'm puzzled.

If you don't want interaction then I respectively suggest you avoid exposing yourself on a public forum.

Not me guv.

I've never placed a bet without knowing what value I have in my entire life.

There's definitely NO sarcasm on here TD23 /s

Exeter

1 - 5@40  placed bsp 38 isp 25/1
2 - 2@16  placed bsp 18.05 isp 11/1
3 - 2@8.2  placed bsp 9.2 isp 6/1
4 - 5@7.6  placed bsp 7.09 isp 9/2
5 - 8@7.8  placed bsp 7 isp 9/2
6 - 2@3.65  lost
7 - 1@8.2  won bsp 10.4 isp 9/2

A little profit for the day with the one winner coming late in the day.
A different dtaking strategy would have shown a far healthier profit.

Hopw you all had a profitable day whatever you have backed today.

GL tonight to all having a go at southwell.  Will be cheering merry on for the memeber whos had the ew dbls.. best of luck.

Shooda that /s was very refreshing. And made me laugh. Top work.

Yeah im not one for backing at sp either. Its an extra gamble upon a gamble imo.
Someone mentioned it and wondered what their rational was given it wpuld have been more profitable today.

bfsp is in most cases backing at biggish prices a potent weapon ,often a a 25/1 winner industry price can double or way over the sp , its often a huge bonus  and i always have a  pop at bfsp  as well as taking the prices on here ........where is  is your value .............its on here !

People who own a golden goose need not share it.

Plenty of golden geese appear on this forum. Almost all without exception turn out to be infertile, most fail even to lay a solitary egg.

/s

youll need to post a running total.

im using the price you took, not bfsp.

4 winners from 27 bets. -9.24 strike rate 14.8%. ROI -34.2%

loper 07 Apr 26 15:20 
Aren't these tips win only?

I didn't expect to back them for a place?


OPINIONS!!

not plaice bets so no menchunning PLAICE ffs.

Hi tame  yes Im using the price i took too. Im adding the sp's for my reference really.  Think im going to keep the staking plan the same until i reach 500 bets placed then probably make an adjustment. I havent worked it out yet but im thinking ill likely be backing horses over a certain price ew after that. For now im not changing amything.
Yes horatio youve changed my way of thinking. Opinions these are.
Only 1 meeting again today.

Fontwell

1 - 1@3.97
2 - 2@4.4
3 - 5@7.2
4 - 5@24
5 - 7@9.4
6 - 4@9

Bit earlier than usual today bit taking kids out for the day so needs must.  Im guessing a few of these will be available soon at much bigger prices.

One i didnt put in but tempted at the price..

Hendersons in first. Big prIce for one of his with nico on in this kind of race.

Good luck all whatever you back today.

6 lossas...

curious where u got 24 verdant? was 12 at time ewe posted.

4 winners from 33 bets. p/l -15.24. strike rate 12.1%. ROI -46.1%

tuff ole game the pre race mullarkey.

Today's selections?

Been bad as a dog last few days so havent been on the ball posting here. Cracking first two days at aintree tho punting in my pyjamas from bed. Theyve been put in my own spreadsheet but wont put them on here retrospectivly as i know will gain me no end of jip.
Backed wellington arch, will the wise, zeus power yesterday early doors so got decent prices. Backed toby lawes too but thought jockey gave too much to do.
Other selections were regents stroll, heartwood. Heartwood belted first two and never a chance after that. 

First day i backed mange tout, koktail divin, brighterdaysahead and barton snow. Losers were protektorat, wonleg and divine diva.  Wonleg i thought another furlong or two mught have won, divine diva rubbish.

Rico, defo got that price on verdant.  Ill look back in a minute and tell you the time i backed it again. Was defo available.

Today is a day i never ever do well on, though my old mans national record is phenomonal. Hes going perceval legallois..

Ive backed grangeclaire west and gerri colombe.

Again, feel like dogshit so watching from the settee today.

Good luck to you all and hope all horses get round safe. Sad day yesterday seeing that gigginstown horse struggle the last furlong. Townend should have knew something was up and got off the thing. Bad move in my eyes with the world watching.

Rico , verdant was backed at 10.08am.  Though there was rule 4s so took price down to 14.98 by time of off.

Today im only looking at aintree.  Feel rough as a badgers arse.

1 - 7@1.94
2 - 4@50
3 - 9@8.4
4 - 3@23
5 - 10@7.8
6 - 5@46
7 - 8 @5.3

Still no gas

methane..