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stewarts rise
27 Mar 26 12:41
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Date Joined: 22 Apr 04
| Topic/replies: 33,966 | Blogger: stewarts rise's blog
Jockeys, how much do they affect your decision making when having a bet?
  Just looking at the jockeys riding in the Amateur riders h'cap 2.12 Lingfield. First thing i notice is the jockey riding the Fav Pleasant Man,  Miss Aaliyah Bowers-Carter , never heard of her, look up her stats 0-17, only one ride since Sept 24.
   Most of her rides have been for Michael Chapman whose runners are usually 100/1+ and no winners last 5 years. Tried to find something about her and looks like she mainly jumps little fences on ponies in show jumping.
   Most of her rides have finished right down the field unsurprisingly and has just one 3rd place to her name btn over 7 lengths so i'd say not used to riding out a finish.
   Question is that the horse she rides you would think has a good chance although not ran over this short a distance since Feb 24, this horse usually wins a race a season and back in the day won a C2 h'cap at York from 93, gets in off 69-7lbs allowance.
   Some decent amateurs in this so usually i'd be wanting to lay this Fav with this very inexperienced jockey on top but remembering that young muslim girl winning the Magnolia Cup on her first ride is rather stopping me, what do you all think?
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Report swiftynifty March 27, 2026 11:56 AM GMT
Is the answer D? For Don't?
Report FOYLESWAR March 27, 2026 12:02 PM GMT
funny enough stew i fancy one in this  and its a price ,dont usually do handicaps and i may be miles off with this one but crafter has gone a long time since his last win and is an 8yo but he is down to a mark of 55 today 7 pound lower than his last win which was over c&d in nov 24 showed a bit last time when btn 3 lengths jockey is 0 from 2 .not a race to get heavily involved in but 365 are going 4 places ew dont know if i can get anything on with them but my missus can and ive had a bit on on here good luck .
Report stewarts rise March 27, 2026 1:03 PM GMT
I presume the jockey is Billys younger brother Foyles, you'd expect him to be able to ride, good luck. Mr Jimmy Cagney and Mr Callan have good percentages and both have decent chances but starting to think Miss ABC should go close if she can get it around the bend. As you say not a race to get heavily involved in.
Report saddo March 27, 2026 1:37 PM GMT
stewarts rise  Mar 26 11:41 
Jockeys, how much do they affect your decision making when having a bet?
  Just looking at the jockeys riding in the Amateur riders h'cap 2.12 Lingfield. First thing i notice is the jockey riding the Fav Pleasant Man,  Miss Aaliyah Bowers-Carter , never heard of her, look up her stats 0-17, only one ride since Sept 24
....................

Oddly enough I watched the replay of it's last race this morning, saw it was
entered today, and had a look. As soon as I saw the form of ms double barrel
I decided to leave it.
Report stewarts rise March 27, 2026 1:53 PM GMT
Yes Saddo a bit of a quandary, horse been rather unlucky last 2 runs over 1m4fs, well clear of 3rd lto after leading final furlong, caught inside last furlong when trying to make all here time before, drawn in 7, if she's up to it may try to make all again but is she. Layed it early at 5.3 backed it back now at 5.5 as bottled out.
Report saddo March 27, 2026 2:02 PM GMT
If Mr Henry Callan was riding I'd have fancied it.
Report stewarts rise March 27, 2026 2:09 PM GMT
Have a similar quandary in the 1st race at Dundalk the claimer concerning 1st and 2nd favs. The fav, The Liffey has won last 2 races both claimers over 1m and 6fs, last time for this 7lb claiming jockey, but form over 7fs reads 766 btn between 4 and 6 1/2 lengths in h'caps.
   Whereas Una Matata 2nd fav has won last 3 races over 7fs here but btn more than 4 lengths over 1m last 3 runs including when over 8 lengths behind The Liffey off virtual level weights in a claimer, however reared start and that run can be forgiven., going through Mehman think Una Matata has a few pounds to find today about 6lbs i think. Have backed The Liffey at 9/5 with 356 to win by over a length and will probably have a saver on Una Matata on here later, puzzles eh.
Report swiftynifty March 27, 2026 2:17 PM GMT
Callan looked in a different league in the finish, how old is he? Might be better than his brother.
Report Angela Rebecchi March 27, 2026 2:18 PM GMT
Nice call. She was very weak in the finish there. Callan on the other hand was sublime.
Report saddo March 27, 2026 2:18 PM GMT
4 from 4 at Lingers now.
Report stewarts rise March 27, 2026 2:18 PM GMT
Indeed saddo, jockey won it, she did well but not strong enough in the finish, horse had plenty left imo. Traded 1.3 IR.
Report howard March 27, 2026 2:19 PM GMT
good post.
Report Clerkmore March 27, 2026 2:20 PM GMT
Miss ABC was useless. Horse would have won with a decent jockey up.
Report penzance March 27, 2026 2:20 PM GMT
Gave that every chance to win that race.
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