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acey deucy and dickster both say lay till your nose bleeds as its gone with the game and too old for the flat.
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2/7 with pp
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good val yew?
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It might be on the day,Rico
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The second in (if it runs ) is an 85 horse that has had a few goes
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Mythical prices which are A/P as well,Acey.
If C/H runs it will be shorter |
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Ocean not riding
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Banned
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I am factually correct freako. Most flat horses start racing at 2 maybe 3. Therefore, to most intelligent people, 9 is not just too old to start but FAR too old. Hope you're able to understand.
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Yes but very few horses start on the flat at 9. However I'd be surprised if CH is anything more than a decent handicapper.
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The thing about the aw it is consistent enough, and he clocked a sparkling time. Of course all logic told you he shouldn't have been that good, and I opposed him for that reason. But he defied logic. All the caveats apply, need to see it more than once et al. And the hype is excessive. I suppose the only things in his favour age wise are that he hasn't ran a lot, and would have started relatively late compared to flat types.
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Interesting to see how many turn up…..smiler in the saddle should fill the stand
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"However I'd be surprised if CH is anything more than a decent handicapper." Timeform appear to disagree.
Timeform have handed Constitution Hill a rating of 106P following his sparkling winning debut on the Flat at Southwell on Friday evening. To put the rating into context, the leading stayer Trawlerman has a Timeform master rating of 127 while last year’s Betfred Derby hero Lambourn is on 121. The P attached to Constitution Hill’s figure means the Timeform handicappers feel the horse is capable of much better. |
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"Of course all logic told you he shouldn't have been that good, and I opposed him for that reason. But he defied logic" He looked very speedy when running between the hurdles and Hendo thought he was much better than other quite high rated flat winners he had trained. Maybe plenty of people of people were just wrong in their judgement
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Of course I was 'wrong', gamblers play the odds. It wasn't wrong to have opposed him, but that didn't mean it was impossible for him to have performed well. Bad bets are far more irritating.
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"most gr1 races have 120+ horses..cons sertanlee isnt won ( rico )
" It wasn't wrong to have opposed him" Funny but when I lay a horse that hoses up by 10 lengths I think I was wrong. |
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Timeform hasn't been the same since Phil Bull died.
Their ratings are all over the place imo. |
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acey deucy and dickster both say lay till your nose bleeds as its gone with the game and too old for the flat.
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If anyone doesn't think CH is a listed ( 100+ ) horse they are clueless imo.
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nobody with a brain would be mucking out horses for long...if ever.
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It's somewhat ironic how you portray yourself as an 'expert' gambler, howard. Yet you apparently don't understand gambling, and only judge if a bet is good or not by the outcome.
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So you'd think someone taking 2-1 about heads on a fair coin toss had struck a bad bet when it landed tails up :)
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The theory was fine but the result wasn't,Cider.
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Indeed, so I wasn't wrong to oppose him. Not in my view anyway. I've struck plenty of poor bets in my time. Opposing a 9 yo debutant on the flat, likely to be over bet (hype, fanbase) and hadn't ran well in any rules race in a very long time wasn't one of them. howard apparently struggles with the concept though
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u have never been wrong about anything Cider. I've just had a sociopath landlord for several years. Becoming very sensitive to the wired different guys.
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Pretty lame deflection attempt. Judging a quality of a bet by the outcome is a pretty unusual (imv flawed) approach for someone who purports to take betting seriously.
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I got top xmas day tv consolidated wrong, was a bit too quick to dismiss Amamdaland. I suspect my inherent dislike of the bbc played a part there, and obviously my personal views should not be impacting my betting judgement.
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cons hill lto was very strong in the market..vibes were good..that was enuff for a watching brief. imo
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You got the horse wrong. You thought it was a less than 85 horse maybe less than 80. Of course you always take into account the odds but when you are so far off with your judgement on the horse getting the odds wrong is highly likely.
Of course you want no close look. Any highly educated and highly intelligent person coming on to this forum in it's present state makes me "worry". Any talk of loneliness and interest in horse racing doesn't wash with me. I've seen it in real life. Going downmarket bigtime in social circles. There is always a profound reason. |
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Only the Hendo Yard knew what they had and expressed their view.
For anybody else it was an educated guess. BTW,I did F/A on the race |
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I think something else to come out of the race that IMO might prove erroneous is the assumption by some that what he did in some way confirms that he is indeed a world beater relatively speaking with the flat game at his mercy, my hunch is that as visually impressive as he was, when the CH story plays out to its fullest, the whole thing won't have aged well...but we'll see.
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If you are against him I'd be inclined to double down on that opinion going forward.
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I suppose if next week doesn't work out there's still time to enter him for the Aintree Hurdle
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has to be an OR 100 after southwell..at 9yrs old that may be his limit.
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he's got a higher hurdling rating than Sea Pigeon though...he didn't do too badly in old age.
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You got the horse wrong. You thought it was a less than 85 horse maybe less than 80. Of course you always take into account the odds but when you are so far off with your judgement on the horse getting the odds wrong is highly likely.
Of course you want no close look. Any highly educated and highly intelligent person coming on to this forum in it's present state makes me "worry". Any talk of loneliness and interest in horse racing doesn't wash with me. I've seen it in real life. Going downmarket bigtime in social circles. There is always a profound reason. I have absolutely no idea what the second paragraph has to do with the topic, but 'its' not 'it's'. I don't recall ever put a rating on him, and I do recall stating he could easily gag up. You seemingly still don't get it. Anyhow, I didn't lay CH, I simply backed an opponent, as that was where I thought the value was likely to be. I also stated at the time that the opponent could just be running for a mark. As it turned out, he ran like a drain, so whether CH had won easily or not, my bet would still have been defeated! |
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To simplify it, using my earlier coin flip analogy. You know for absolute certainty that there's half a chance your bet will lose. However, any half decent gambler would still take the chance. And would know they'd made the correct decision if they did indeed lose.
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i cud offer 10/1 on a coin toss..you would have to be a clown not to have everything ewe have on..i cud still leave ewe skint.
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