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09 Feb 26
20:30
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Date Joined:
07 May 10
Can someone put the above article on here please, thanks in advance.
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he was sat beside me in my office doin in running few yrs back..was doin a comedy gig that night in a pie n mash shop in North Shields.
Confessions of a semi-pro punter: what I’ve learned from 15 years of betting for (most of) my living
The In The Know host kicks off a new betting column counting down to Cheltenham
Someone tweeted me last week with this gem of a query: “Serious question, Ross, what is your day job?”
God knows, mate.
For the past 15 years, I’ve been self-employed and, if you know me at all, it’s probably because of In The Know, the Racing Post’s preview show, which celebrates its fifth birthday this year. It’ll be off to school soon!
In that time I’ve also made money creating videos and podcasts, commentating and radio presenting. I’ve been paid to perform stand-up comedy in clubs, bars, festivals and even once on a Caribbean cruise full of Americans who did not understand my daft British sense of humour.
Depending on the year, somewhere between 20 and 80 per cent of my income also came from betting on horseracing.
Even within that specific column, the details fluctuate yearly. The bet that got me going in 2011 was an each-way treble, but I don’t think I’ve had a decent one up since. That return funded years of in-running betting, with highlights coming in completely contrasting races.
Then 2015 was my best year overall, with no specific peak, before in 2016 I couldn’t string a run together to save my life only to win my one and only Scoop6 at the end of August. Bacon saved. After the last leg went in, I had to drive to a carpet shop to pay for a house full of underlay. Back down to earth with a bump, albeit a cushioned one.
In 2021, it was ante-post each-way multiples at Cheltenham; in 2023, it was getting the placepot up on the last day of Royal Ascot; and in 2024 it was a place accumulator on Royal Hunt Cup day. Even when one source of income is consistent, the details aren’t.
“But Ross, isn’t this just a load of aftertiming guff?”
Sorry, who let my inner critic in the bloody room? Well, yes, perhaps, but the point I’m making is this: to survive as a freelancer, punter or human, you must be adaptable and you never quite know which spinning plate will pay for the shagpile.
Maybe my speciality is adaptability and angle-spotting in and of itself. It’s certainly my favourite part of the game. The puzzle is the prize itself.
On Monday night’s In The Know, we will be picking apart the Champion Chase market.
You might have watched Majborough hack up last week and said out loud: “Well, that’s your winner!”
Back in the day, you’d have toddled off to the betting shop, backed him ante-post and shut the hell up. Now you might tweet it, repeat it on a podcast, type it up in a blog. By the time it gets to the Champion Chase, you feel like your little ol’ opinion about Majborough is now the last line of defence against the fools and the knaves who dare question how this magnificent beast could be defeated ever again.
I had the opposite view. “This big ol’ lummox has put it together today, but will he next time?”
However, we both need to check ourselves (before we wreck ourselves) as the biggest pre-festival angle right now is to try to resist the urge to be partisan. Your opinion isn’t becoming stronger through reasoning, just repetition.
At last year’s Dublin Racing Festival, all eight Grade 1 winners ran again at the Cheltenham Festival. Only Kopek Des Bordes won.
Since 2018, horses who won Grade 1s at the DRF are 18-58 in the same grade at Cheltenham – a 31 per cent strike-rate but a level-stakes loss of £17.57 and an actual versus expected result of 0.89, telling you the market is overrating them slightly.
Jasmin De Vaux, Lossiemouth, Marine Nationale, Inothewayurthinkin and Fact To File were all beaten at the DRF in top-level races and won Grade 1s at Cheltenham last year. Those types are 16-162, (9.88 per cent, -£34.70, A/E 1.01). You’re still losing money, but the market isn’t as crazy about them.
The angle here, with Majborough and many others, is Willie Mullins. The DRF is his playground.
He has had 13 winners at Cheltenham from 37 runners who had won Grade 1s at the DRF, registering a small loss of £8.38 to £1 level stakes. If you’d just backed those with an SP of 6-4 or shorter (the price of Majborough as I type), you’d make £2.62.
Those who were beaten and went off single-figure odds next time are 7-32, with a small loss of £5.45 and an A/E of 1.09. All three qualifiers won last year (Jasmin De Vaux, Lossiemouth and Fact To File).
Those who were beaten and went off double figures? 0-51. Which means if you do fancy a Mullins hotpot at the festival, the key isn’t how they performed at the DRF but how strong the market is on them at Cheltenham relative to their run at Leopardstown.
What about those who bombed out at Leopardstown? The good news for Final Demand backers is six horses have been beaten at odds-on at the DRF with three winning at Cheltenham. All three were favourite. Maybe going back to the drawing board after defeat will turn out to be the best thing in the long run.
Those sent off very strong favourites at Cheltenham after winning at Leopardstown are profitable to follow, as are those strong in the betting when beaten. Maybe Mullins shorties should be the bankers of ante-post accas after all.
The In The Know host kicks off a new betting column counting down to Cheltenham
Someone tweeted me last week with this gem of a query: “Serious question, Ross, what is your day job?”
God knows, mate.
For the past 15 years, I’ve been self-employed and, if you know me at all, it’s probably because of In The Know, the Racing Post’s preview show, which celebrates its fifth birthday this year. It’ll be off to school soon!
In that time I’ve also made money creating videos and podcasts, commentating and radio presenting. I’ve been paid to perform stand-up comedy in clubs, bars, festivals and even once on a Caribbean cruise full of Americans who did not understand my daft British sense of humour.
Depending on the year, somewhere between 20 and 80 per cent of my income also came from betting on horseracing.
Even within that specific column, the details fluctuate yearly. The bet that got me going in 2011 was an each-way treble, but I don’t think I’ve had a decent one up since. That return funded years of in-running betting, with highlights coming in completely contrasting races.
Then 2015 was my best year overall, with no specific peak, before in 2016 I couldn’t string a run together to save my life only to win my one and only Scoop6 at the end of August. Bacon saved. After the last leg went in, I had to drive to a carpet shop to pay for a house full of underlay. Back down to earth with a bump, albeit a cushioned one.
In 2021, it was ante-post each-way multiples at Cheltenham; in 2023, it was getting the placepot up on the last day of Royal Ascot; and in 2024 it was a place accumulator on Royal Hunt Cup day. Even when one source of income is consistent, the details aren’t.
“But Ross, isn’t this just a load of aftertiming guff?”
Sorry, who let my inner critic in the bloody room? Well, yes, perhaps, but the point I’m making is this: to survive as a freelancer, punter or human, you must be adaptable and you never quite know which spinning plate will pay for the shagpile.
Maybe my speciality is adaptability and angle-spotting in and of itself. It’s certainly my favourite part of the game. The puzzle is the prize itself.
On Monday night’s In The Know, we will be picking apart the Champion Chase market.
You might have watched Majborough hack up last week and said out loud: “Well, that’s your winner!”
Back in the day, you’d have toddled off to the betting shop, backed him ante-post and shut the hell up. Now you might tweet it, repeat it on a podcast, type it up in a blog. By the time it gets to the Champion Chase, you feel like your little ol’ opinion about Majborough is now the last line of defence against the fools and the knaves who dare question how this magnificent beast could be defeated ever again.
I had the opposite view. “This big ol’ lummox has put it together today, but will he next time?”
However, we both need to check ourselves (before we wreck ourselves) as the biggest pre-festival angle right now is to try to resist the urge to be partisan. Your opinion isn’t becoming stronger through reasoning, just repetition.
At last year’s Dublin Racing Festival, all eight Grade 1 winners ran again at the Cheltenham Festival. Only Kopek Des Bordes won.
Since 2018, horses who won Grade 1s at the DRF are 18-58 in the same grade at Cheltenham – a 31 per cent strike-rate but a level-stakes loss of £17.57 and an actual versus expected result of 0.89, telling you the market is overrating them slightly.
Jasmin De Vaux, Lossiemouth, Marine Nationale, Inothewayurthinkin and Fact To File were all beaten at the DRF in top-level races and won Grade 1s at Cheltenham last year. Those types are 16-162, (9.88 per cent, -£34.70, A/E 1.01). You’re still losing money, but the market isn’t as crazy about them.
The angle here, with Majborough and many others, is Willie Mullins. The DRF is his playground.
He has had 13 winners at Cheltenham from 37 runners who had won Grade 1s at the DRF, registering a small loss of £8.38 to £1 level stakes. If you’d just backed those with an SP of 6-4 or shorter (the price of Majborough as I type), you’d make £2.62.
Those who were beaten and went off single-figure odds next time are 7-32, with a small loss of £5.45 and an A/E of 1.09. All three qualifiers won last year (Jasmin De Vaux, Lossiemouth and Fact To File).
Those who were beaten and went off double figures? 0-51. Which means if you do fancy a Mullins hotpot at the festival, the key isn’t how they performed at the DRF but how strong the market is on them at Cheltenham relative to their run at Leopardstown.
What about those who bombed out at Leopardstown? The good news for Final Demand backers is six horses have been beaten at odds-on at the DRF with three winning at Cheltenham. All three were favourite. Maybe going back to the drawing board after defeat will turn out to be the best thing in the long run.
Those sent off very strong favourites at Cheltenham after winning at Leopardstown are profitable to follow, as are those strong in the betting when beaten. Maybe Mullins shorties should be the bankers of ante-post accas after all.
Link to Monday's In The Know, which is referred to in the article:-
https://www.youtube.com/live/jf1VIIrfVFs
Note it freezes for a couple of minutes: it's not your computer!
https://www.youtube.com/live/jf1VIIrfVFs
Note it freezes for a couple of minutes: it's not your computer!
Timings if you want to jump forwards to specific sections of In The Know.
CHAPTERS
00:00 - Countdown
04:44 - Intro
06:30 - Weekend Review
28:53 - Supreme Novice Hurdle Ante-Post (Grade 1)
46:45 - Brown Advisory Novice Chase Ante-Post (Grade 1)
57:05 - Champion Chase Ante-Post (Grade 1)
1:09:00 - Best Bets
CHAPTERS
00:00 - Countdown
04:44 - Intro
06:30 - Weekend Review
28:53 - Supreme Novice Hurdle Ante-Post (Grade 1)
46:45 - Brown Advisory Novice Chase Ante-Post (Grade 1)
57:05 - Champion Chase Ante-Post (Grade 1)
1:09:00 - Best Bets
Link to the Racing Post+ subscription page where there is currently a discount offer (like DFS, there is always a sale on but the terms vary):-
https://www.racingpost.com/subscriptions/
Fwiw I'd recommend Ultimate which gives you access to these features which seem to be getting more numerous and more interesting (look how often there are requests on this forum) under the new-ish editor, and access to digital copies of the Racing Post (main and Irish editions) along with RFO (Racing & Football Outlook) and the Weekender.
https://www.racingpost.com/subscriptions/
Fwiw I'd recommend Ultimate which gives you access to these features which seem to be getting more numerous and more interesting (look how often there are requests on this forum) under the new-ish editor, and access to digital copies of the Racing Post (main and Irish editions) along with RFO (Racing & Football Outlook) and the Weekender.
Not to blow smoke up his backside but I think he's one of the best pundits in the game, great opinions and funny chap. In The Know is an enjoyable listen.
Lovely stuff. Affable enough presenter, but that's the start and finish for me. Having watched quite a bit of In The Know - for me it's gone stale - I think he's a long way removed from a human cash machine. Seemingly, very stats orientated.
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