Andrews 2026 Lay/Racing Thread

Thank you ANDREW G/L

FOTR

I did mention Goliath, albeit indirectly

I don't see AOB winning from his 4, but he could get a place, or possibly even 2, as could trainer of the favourite. The Japanese runner has to come into the reckoning, but take out the favourite and any of 5 could win.

I like both the French horses, but i don't think Goliath can win.

Agree Soumillon is good, but i also like MB and Maxime Guyon as well as Aurelian Lematire, but the latter is not having such a good year.

Cheers Andrew.

A narrow escape on the Place bet,AIS.
Nevertheless,well done.
You will be amazed to know that Delbert aftertimed the KG winner

Two very wise 2TBP bets/lays there Andrew, WD

Good Morning All,

Thanks for the posts, appreciated.

A good day yesterday, in fact 100% on my post in one aspect (bets) including the Heritage Handicap winner, it seems the last one i had was probably ridden by Scobie Breasley .

Amazing Journey (4/1) started the ball rolling and may have been the best backed runner of the day, 7/1 with the books when i posted (bigger on here) and bigger the day before. The first leg of a treble on the day for Saffie, always in contention on the far side, a different scenario to recent races where he has dwelt at the start. Improved steadily throughout the season and was 5lb well in off a mark of 90, so the handicapper will be looking at closer to 98 on Tuesday.

In the KG & QEII, Calandagan ran well enough but was simply beaten by a better one on the day, reversing the 1-2 in 2025. I don't think it was a case of the filly improving, more so the favourite didn't find as much as maybe expected. Paddock reports stated he looked OK in his coat and was fit, but not as athletic looking as last year. Having said that he still had the best final 2 furlong sectionals and finishing speed at 100.07%. On this showing Kalpana has a decent chance in the Arc, but as often in this race, it depends on the draw. She had no chance in 2025, nor did another decent filly in Aventure for the same reason.

Benvenuto Cellini stayed on well close home to finish a close 3rd to at least give some indication with depth of the 3-year olds, but AOB has a better one at home in my opinion.

As mentioned, i played the 2TBP on Calandagan and laid the Irish runner in the same market, so a good result. To wrap up the afternoon, the lay selection at Gowran Elmakaya drifted from 9/4 (shorter in the morning) to 3/1 on course and was uplaced.

On to this afternoon, only a couple if domestic meetings and i don't fancy anything, backing or laying.

Internationally, there's a G1 race at München (Riem) in east of the city, so i will go as i often do for the few group traces throughout the year. I'm meeting our filly's trainer, George Scott who runs the likely favourite Wimbledon Hawkeye at lunchtime for the Bayerisches Zuchtrennen at 14.10. The horse moved to George from James Owen/Wathnan racing recently and is making debut for new connections this afternoon.

10 runners, but only 4 locally trained, the remainder from England and Ireland. It's a decent field, but not a particularly strong GI and quite open. The German entries don't look good enough to win, the best of them may be the 3-year old filly Santagada who was 3rd behind Aventure at Longchamp in May (albeit beaten 3.5L). It's not an easy race to digest, 7 of the 10 are rated 120 or higher on RPR, with Wimbledon Hawkeye the classiest, 1lb below Hotazhell. George is no stranger to München, he won the G1 there in November with Bay City Roller and has a decent chance today if his runner can repeat his Ascot run behind Map Of Stars at Ascot LTO. The latter was actually runner-up in this race last year behind Tornado Alert with Oisin on board, who rides Wimbledon Hawkeye. Unless, in an unlikely event George tell me his runner is a good thing and to lump on, my bet will probably be a 100 max place on Silawi who has ran in some quality races recently including winning a G1 at Woodbine. Has been off a while, but he won on 2025 debut after a slightly shorter break. Currently 13/2 with the books, but only tote on course and no market here. I'm actually only going for the afternoon out as opposed to betting.

Not many will be interested, but for those that are, the meeting is broadcast live (Deutsche commentary) on YT or Deutscher galopp.

https://www.deutscher-galopp.de/gr/themen/livestream/

Uptheirons

Thanks, but i'm not getting embroiled with the mentioned poster. Racing debate is fine, but being overly argumentative stating Black is White when it clearly isn't, is not for me. His MO of C/P racing media articles and trainer quotes is also fine, but cherry picking after the race and purporting to win using comical pasted bets isn't. As mentioned before, i have stopped reading his threads.

Good luck and have a nice Sunday all.

Awe how touching irons came running here, I suspect he followed another DUD from the OP who knows no bounds when it comes to irony.

..”but being overly argumentative stating Black is White when it clearly isn't..”

That’s pot kettle black for you both.

Bayerisches Zuchtrennen at 14.10

13:10 UK Time

Good Evening All,

A warm, but generally overcast afternoon at München/Riem racecourse yesterday with feature race the G1 Bayerisches Zuchtrennen over 10f. I met up with Newmarket trainer George Scott and an accomplice (no idea who he was) both well dressed for the occasion, George was there as he had the favourite in the race, Wimbledon Hawkeye.

A decent crowd as expected and the 'A' tribune enclosure (similar to our premier class) and VIP boxes were all sold out. I've been to quite a few of the group race meetings held there over the years, but to be honest if George hadn't attended i may not have bothered anyway, there wasn't an Alpinista, Bay City Roller or Nations Pride running at the course that i could back as in previous years.

As mentioned in my post, i thought it was quite an open field ignoring the non-German entries who i didn't think could win anyway. I backed Silawi for 3 places, albeit to less of a stake than envisaged (it was 12.9/1 for win on the tote). It was my only bet, although I watched the race preceding the big one and one after just for an interest. I rarely back in the handicaps there, i wouldn't have a clue really, i only follow the group class racing in Germany.

In the race per se, the Irish trained Hotazhell made the running from the inside draw and James Doyle rushed up Silawi to be prominent in 4th from the outside, although he was a bit keen. The order didn't change much until off the final bend when my hopes were raised with Silawi going into 3rd, but it was a very short lived effort. Hotazell stayed on really strongly after being headed by the runner-up to win by a nose with the very strong finishing Wimbledon Hawkeye 3rd beaten 0.5L. Silawi is probably still running on.

Moving on to this evening, i haven't had much chance to look at the domestic cards today, but it's the opening day of the Galway festival that runs until Sunday and one runner looks interesting, even to one who doesn't back in handicaps so often, and even then mostly to fun stakes, but i've backed the JP O'Brien trained 3 year-old filly Dancing Saxon (19.15) who looks to be thrown in, even off top weight of 10st. She's actually racing off 16lb lower than her new rating and wouldn't even be running if the race was later in the week. Her current mark of 80 will be raised tomorrow for finishing runner-up in listed class LTO, 5 days ago (had won 2 minor races on the spin prior to this). It doesn't look a strong field by any means, Joseph didn't bother putting a claimer up and it's a small handicap worth only €10,6K to the winner, so why not take advantage of the system. She's conceding a fair bit of weight to several, but those under 9st don't look much. Of course her last run may be a fluke, it was a significant improvement on her previous runs.

Mind you, all the world and his brother will be aware of the above and she will be priced accordingly, but in my opinion, odds of 2.44 are probably a steal as i expected her to be much shorter. If she wins well as i expect, it will be interesting to see if she goes back up to listed class.

Good luck and have a nice evening all.

Dancing Saxon hosed up by 4.25L @ 13/8.

BSP 3.45 - come racing

WD Andrew

Good Morning All,

PHS

Thank you. Dancing Saxon won easily (4.25L) but i was very surprised at the BSP of 3.45, i backed at a little over evens thinking it was good price as i expected the horse to be odds-on. It's rare i have more than a mid double figure EW £ bet in a handicap, but i thought she was thrown in as i mentioned (16lb well in, ran off 80 and now rated 96). A case of a group horse running in a handicap and i noticed she has been entered in a G3 at Naas later this month.

A summary of my trip to Goodwood on Wednesday that was impacted by bad travel planning/arrangments, normally i'm on the ball, although events outside my control also played a part in them. I did think to stay closer to the course, but decided to stay close to Heathrow as i often do, in fact at a hotel at Hatton Cross a couple of tube stops from T4, from there it's a Flix bus to Gatwick and a SW train to Chichester, both around a hour, so considering my arrival time was 10.30, i had time to get to Goodwood for the start if everything went as planned.

I was up very early taking a 04.38 courtesy bus to the airport and after two short flights and a transit stop arrived at T4, more or less on time, but then the first delay occured as we had to wait for a parking slot that was circa 25 minutes. After passport and baggage pick-up that didn't take so long, i took the tube to my hotel, checked in and changed clothes (dress code at Goodwood) then a tube back to Heathrow bus station. The Flix bus departed 15 minutes late, M25 traffic early in the journey made it a little longer than expected and as a consequence i just missed a train to Chichester so i had to wait 30 minutes for the next one, then i took an Uber to the course. I arrived just after 15.30, a few minutes before the 4th race. Not a big deal as my betting was only going to evolve around Bow Echo, but i paid to basically for a ticket to watch 1 race !

I met up with Simon Nott who was on reporting duties as per often, always good to chat with him, also with Kaan at Star Sports.

I actually thought Bow Echo was beaten 2f out, so did the two guys i was with (one a 'lucky' poster on here ) but fair play to the horse; that turn of foot is potent and will make him hard to beat. It was  good result for me, i had backed him AP a few days before and also with Star Sports on course. The reception was simply superb, so all the previous frustration around the travelling was soon forgotten, i didn't have another bet, but we stayed to watch the racing and had a couple of beers. It was good to see our ex-trainers, Dan and Claire Kübler win the finale and although they were in earshot, we didn't get to speak with them as they were with connections.

We went to a local pub after the racing that showed evening racing, but no bets. Later i took the reverse journey back to my hotel that actually went to plan, but it was about 22.40 when i got there and i was so tired after a very long day.

Where will Bow Echo run next, here are my thoughts posted on anoither thread to save typing.

There's only the QEII left for him in England (G1/8f) on possible soft going and zero in Ireland, so it's France or USA. France gives him a couple of options over 8f in August and September (Deauville and Longchamp) and another on Arc weekend if he steps down to 7f (unlikely). Will connections step him up in trip, who knows. Keeneland in November could be on the cards, but it's a tight oval, a short run to the bend and the draw plays a part, a double figure and forget it. What would it prove going there anyway and at the end of a long season. Will he run as a 4 year old ? I have my doubts and feel he will retire unbeaten if he stays this side of the 'pond'.

I had planned to go for the Nassau the following day, in fact this was the race i wanted to see most, but i didn't want to face another day of travelling even though it may have been without delays, so i actually watched the race on ITV in my hotel.

Bow Echo wasn't a good thing although i did fancy it strongly, but regular readers will know i'm a big fan of Diamond Necklace and she was my banker. I thought she had it won almost 2f out, although the oppostion wasn't so strong with exception of the runner-up. Hopefully she goes for the Prix Vermeille in September, it's an obvious race for her and she's won on the course. I will be there.

My only other bet this week was a small win double (loser) yesterday so a very good few days not only financially, but a few days away, good company on Wednesday as it always is with them, an English food fix and a bit of shopping yesterday. I leave this evening, although i could be back again for the Juddmonte, it depends on workload, but it's a race i really want to see, in particular Constitution River and i've never been to York.

On to this afternoon, i haven't had chance to look at the RP in detail yet, but i thought Dark Thirty in the Stewards Cup (15.00) no stranger to the course, albeit never won there has an EW squeak. Improved in recent runs, even though he is a 6 year old, winning 2 with a couple of runner-ups in 5 runs. Was a close 2nd, beaten 0.5L in a Premier Handicap LTO after winning a class 3 at Chester off 97 and is a pound lower this afternoon.

If there is a lay at the meeting, maybe Opportunity is such a candidate after winning a couple of handicaps off marks of 92 and 100 and moves up to G3 class (14.25) now upped to 110. It looks a competitive field.

Good luck and have a nice Saturday all.

Thanks Andrew.

That's a tough day, up at 4am, bed at 10:40pm!

@Andrew
From York railway station, pint in Spoons and walk through park to course. About a mile. Enjoy

Well done with Opportunity Andrew

Dark Thirty in the Stewards Cup (15.00) 15:35 maybe.

WD with Opportunity

German Oaks today; no UK runners despite £260k on offer. Seems unusual!

ttt

ttt

Good morning All,

Racing fans are spoilt for choice today with 9 meetings including flat turf, AW and NH in UK/Ireland with a G2 and G3 race at Newbury, albeit not the best of fields in either with only a single runner rated above 114.

Across the channel to the Northwestern shores of France, the Deauville racing festival that started on 2nd August continues and runs through to the 30th with a total of 16 race days and 140 races, including no less than 21 group races with international entries, a racing fans' utopia with no real comparison elsewhere. An added bonus is the cost, as low as 5 euros for a day ticket and a pass for all meetings throughout the month only 30 euros; incredible value, compare this to York for example, i have paid 80 euros for the county stand next Wednesday and we all know how expensive Ascot and Cheltenham can be.

A pity it's not easier to get there with no international airport that close, CDG Paris, then train is probably the better option for me, although i doubt i would have gone anyway as this month is already a travelling one with Goodwood recently; York and Linköping/Sweden to follow.

On to the racing this afternoon, firstly at Newbury in the opener (13.25) where Dubai Honour has the distinction of being the highest rated horse to run anywhere in the world this afternoon, but he's a lay for me. A wonderful horse for connections, still running well at the age of 8 and although the last race he won was a listed class at Southwell last November, he's placed in a few decent races recently, especially in Australia. I was surprised to see he's never run at Newbury although this is not a negative of course. Stepping up over this trip and the going may be a bit lively for him, hence the lay.

For those that like backing shorties, i suggest Eternal Angel at Market Rasen (18.04) although the odds against has gone and the only two that matter (Dan Skelton trained Loriko the other) at least betting wise have gone in opposite directions although it's still early and the odds could get closer come race time. Both ran on the same day in July albeit at different meetings, each one placed, 3rd and 2nd respectively although Eternal Angel ran in much better class. Both have front run before, more so the selection and i think he will make all here on a track that is likely to suit his style. Loriko may perfer a stiffer trip.

Over at Deauville, my favourite trainer/jockey combination of Francis Graffard/Mickeal Barzelona team up in 3 of the 4 group races, but in the G2 Prix Guillaume d'Ornano (13.33) i'm reluctantly going against yet another Aka Khan, well bred 3 year old in Daryzan a potential Arc runner although the trainer could create an Arc field with his stable entries alone. This race will be of interest to Constitution River backers next week (including me) as Daryzan and Montreal finished behind him in the Prix du Jockey Club in May, on this occasion the latter 2L in front although it's a different track today. Although Daryzan ran well enough on debut to win comfortably and again LTO, i'm not convinced he's an Arc horse yet. The form of his last win was franked by the runner up in a conditions race recently, but not so by the others and i see no reason Montreal can't beat him again, hence i'm a layer at the odds-on.

It's Saturday, so yet another Heritage handicap, this time the Great St Wilfred at Ripon (15.25) and although my winning strike rate in these races bordering on abysmal, i did find the winner last time i posted. This week, i've gone for one of the bottom weights in Kodiac Thriller who was runner-up last year. Runs the track well with a record of 3-2-4-1 and Ripon favours course specialists. Finished in the front 3 in 50% of all his races and the 4th in the form line on course was unlucky as he stumbled leaving the stalls and almost upshipped his apprentice jockey, not beaten far. Won well at York with Mark Walford on top LTO and he keeps the ride. Well drawn in 14, so a small win and 4/TBP bet (currently 16.50 and 3.50 odds respectively).

PHS

Many thanks for the ttt, i was away last weekend and didn't get involved.

Good luck and have a nice Saturday all.

I forgot to mention many thanks for the previous posts all (including the Opporunity lay) appreciated as always.

Rigsby

Thanks for the York heads-up, i've never been so another course ticked off, although i haven't been to so many in England anyway, more in other countries i think. I'm meeting up with several posters, most of them i go racing with, so it will be a case of follow the leader.

Thank you ANDREW G/L

THANK YOU ANDREW

Well done with Dubai

W/D  ANDREW  DARYZAN

@andrew
As you cross the road to Spoons from the railway station, Micklegate Bar and access to the famous/historic York City Walls is on your left
Google it  - lol
Enjoy your day

WD with the two lays Andrew

Good Morning All,

Many thanks for the posts all, appreciated.

A good start yesterday with the lays of Dubai Honour and Daryzan both beaten (2/1f and 11/10f). Dubai Honour was always up with the pace, but as soon as the very well backed winner quickened up at the 2f pole, it was more or less game over and layers never really had a moments worry. As for Daryzan, he ran well enough in 2nd and turned Prix du Jockey Club form around with the disappointing Montreal, but he couldn't live with the strong finish of Baroud who won by 2L, going away at the finish. The placings didn't exactly frank the Constitution River form, although indirectly the winner did as he was beaten 2.5L by Pearled Majesty in his penultimate run and this one was previously beaten 5L by Constitution River.

If finding winners was only that simple !

I was surprised the win selection Eternal Angel didn't make the running (as was the course commentator) but in the end he just failed to lose out in a head bob finish and in a few more strides he was the winner, but bookies don't pay out on 'unfortunate'. As for my EW selection in the Great Wilfred handicap, Kodiac Thriller (16/1) nothing more to be said really although he ran a strange race for a 6f sprint, up with the pace on the rail early, faded at halfway, then rallied late on, but he was never going to be involved in the finish. No excuses.

On to this afternoon, a decent card at Pontefract for a Sunday, less so at Southwell and Tramore, with group racing at the Curragh and Deauville, the latter featuring the G1 Prix Jacques Le Marois (14.50) albeit without Bow Street who would have been an odds-on favourite and likely winner. Without Bow Street in the field the race looks wide open, but back on a straight track i think More Thunder can finally get his head in front in a G1 after a couple of runner-up finishes in his previous 2 attempts recently and a 4th a Longchamp last year. I'm hoping for a strong pace and feel his turn of foot will prevail this afternoon.

Earlier on the card (13.33) the Coolmore team look to have a potentially decent 2 year old in Avec Moi, unbeaten in a couple of runs including over CD. Made the running in both races looking comfortable and winning cosily. A small field of 5 with 3 of them English trained including a once raced winner from the Charlie Appleby stable. I have Avec Moi on a mark of 108 and he could be useful; the winner of this race last year went on to win the French Guineas so a possible pointer to 2027. We could also see him on Arc weekend in the G1.

Over in Ireland, the Constitution River form could be tested again with the odds-on favourite A Boy Named Susie in the G3 (16.25) although i use the term 'tested' loosely considering the odds, it will be a shock if this one is beaten. Owned by the trainers sister, i noticed that since his debut win in July 2025, he's been beaten by a horse trained by her father in all 7 races (including CR 3 times) and he has a runner today. No family favours there.

Closer to home, i think the likely favourite Fluorescence at Pontefract (17.45) is a lay. Looked like a promising handicapper up to a year ago with a 1-1-2-3-1 record, the latter win putting him on a mark of 90, but he hasn't improved on this since, with 5 runs off the same mark, another off 92 without winning, albeit hardly disgraced. Runs off 92 this afternoon and it looks a half decent field where any of the 8 runners could win.

Off to York for the Juddmonte on Wednesday and from all accounts quite a few BF posters will also be there, including several of the Fellowship Racing team i often meet up with. I doubt those going will mind me posting, but they include Mr Spreadsheet, Lucky Luciano, Cheeseman, Jimnast and i think Workrider is also joining us. It will certainly be a fun day whatever the race results, but unfortunately i'm only there for the one day. I'm really looking forward to it, even if, as a Cornishman travelling that far north could induce vertigo.

Changing topic, regular readers of my racing threads know i work in the aerospace industry, occasionally posting related news and judging by the response i'm not the only aircraft geek on here. I was a consultant to Saab Aerospace for a total of over 21 years (3 stints) before returning to Germany for a 2nd time, although i still live and return to Linköping every 5 weeks or so. Last month it was announced that NATO will purchase 10 x Saab GlobalEye AEW&C aircraft to replace the Boeing E-3, another poke in the eye for the US after Saab also supplied similar special mission types (different platform) to the Pakistan, Saudi and Dubai airforces to name a few. I worked on the GlobalEye specifically for over 6 years (and the others before it) often travelling over to Toronto on behalf of the company. This program was the best project i have ever worked on, one i'm particularly proud of and it actually paid for my daughters university education. A photo of the flight test aircraft is now on my profile after moderator approval, but regular readers will have seen it before in previous years. I actually flew in the aircraft in Canada during FT, the one and only time i have sat in an aft-facing seat, situated by the first port side window.

Good luck and have a nice Sunday all.

13:33 Avec Toi

Thank You ANDREW  G/L

Thank you ANDREW Avec Toi 

Good morning All

A very short post as i'm about to start travelling up to York from just outside Gatwick. Really looking forward to my first visit there and meeting several posters off here.

Regular readers will not be surprised that betting wise for me it's all about Constitution River in the Juddmonte, a horse i have followed and backed since his debut. His hardest task to date and against one of the best 10f horses in recent years, but I think he wins. The rain will favour him more than his main rivals and the draw is probably better than being in 1. Needs to improve going by the ratings, but he probably will and is in receipt of 7lb. I was going to type more reasoning, but simply no time.

Good luck and have a nice Wednesday all.

Have a good day.  I've rarely seen such a hard call. May have egg on my face but I have never considered Ombudsman a great horse.  Very good yes.  Same with Kalpana Thursday.

Good luck and have a great day.

Been trying to back Christmas Day since Monday when it was at least 3/1 with the books, couldn't even get anything at 4.0. I normally find the ones you cannot get bet are the winners.

big chance trusty.  Good pace should win.

Thx Howard,do u run a tipping line.

no tangle like my earnings tax free

ttt

Good morning All,

Many thanks for the posts, appreciated as always. PHS, thanks for the ttt.

A quick summary of my post last Sunday, 3 selections and only the sole winner in Avec Toi at Deauville. The Coolmore team look to have a potential top class No Nay Never colt, unbeaten in 3 runs who won with a lot of authority by 4L showing a good turn of foot. Probably the best 2 year-old in France at the moment (rated 110 by conversion) and although it was only a G3 and not a particularly strong field could get chance to enhance his status in the G3 Prix Rochette on Arc Trials day (September 6th) and again in the G1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagadere on Arc Day. Some decent horses have won the latter race so if he remains unbeaten at season end will surely be favourite for one of the Guineas, albeit the French one probably being the target. Rayif won the Deauville race last year and went on to win the Guineas.

Moving forward to the Juddmonte meeting on Wednesday, my first visit to the course and the city. I had high expectations beforehand based on several sources and i wasn't disappointed. My first impression was a compact venue, a nice setting, not as grandoise as Ascot (although it doesn't need to be) easy to get around and the view from upper levels of the stand is good. Although there was a decent crowd (we were in the County stand) it didn't give off a congested feel and there were no major queues at bars or toilets. Plenty of bookmakers and i managed to have a nice chat with Ed Thompson who i hadn't seen in a while. Star Sports were there as expected, but i didn't see Simon Nott, although thats not to say he wasn't there. I also met up with the poster Jimnast and his wife, always good to chat with (typical Northern friendliness) and in similar vein, Workrider who we often meet up with in Ireland.

My afternoon was primarily about Constitution River at least betting wise, a particular favourite of mine and one i had followed since his debut. Ombudsman was the rightful favourite of course, but i thought we had his beating although i had never considered the race as a match anyway. I was surprised CR was so close to a fast pace right from the off and even though he took up the running 2f out i never really felt confident. To be fair i thought he ran well considering earlier exersions and at least he beat Omsbudsman, but was simply not good enough on the day. He will probably hose up at Leopardstown now.

Alan Potts sent me an email the day before pointing out the 3 year-old winners of the race since 2000 had previously run in the Epson Derby, a good spot, but did i take notice . I backed CR to win, albeit not as much as i had on his 2 previous runs and my loss was partly offset by a lay of the favourite on Monday (@ 2.06). In hindsight i should have increased the lay stake and reduced the win, but it's easy to say after the event. One positive outome is i laid the favourite in our Longchamp betting fund, it was my turn this week; for those not aware, here is copy of my explanation post in June 2nd to save typing

6 of us are going to Longchamp for the Arc that has become a bit of a pilgrimage in recent years so we decided to have a fun betting exercise to see if we could win and supplement food and drink expenses. We had a 24-week span starting in April, so we broke it down into weekly rounds with a £60 bet on any sport, backing or laying (it can be 2 x £30). The process gets repeated over the forthcoming weeks, so the 6 of us make 4 bets in total during the 24 week period. The stake and any winnings go into the kitty. To date, nobody has lost the full stake, although i think 3 may have lost one bet and recovered with the other. It was my turn last week, so i went all in on Constitution River, happy days. I'm curious how we end up at end of September, it's not a competition; the goal is to make a profit each week, although i doubt that will occur. Week 9 started yesterday so a long way to go, but a lot of fun.

An enjoyable day with the usual team (7 of us in total this time) good company as always, although a fair bit of travelling for what was a 16 hour day to/from Crawley where i was staying, but i'm happy i went irrespective of the loss, although the horse doesn't owe me. A pity i didn't stay over for the Thursday (i returned home mid-morning) i would have had a good day, but i didn't have a bet. If i ever go again, i would like to have a look at the city, we only saw parts of it from the shuttle bus, it reminded me of Bristol a little.

Several meetings to find winners this afternoon, but a trappy York card. The Ebor (15.35) looks as difficult to dissect as always, more so in years since the prize fund was increased significantly, you almost need a pattern horse to win these days, the lowest rating in the field this afternoon is 96. My EW selection, tentative that it is Paddy The Squire is not a group horse, but is consistent, runs well in these high-end handicaps and has been steadily improving in the ratings since May 2025 winning off 81 to a current 104. Trip is not an issue, nor is the softer going (adaptable to all ground conditions) and ran well LTO when runner-up in the Old Newton Cup conceding 15lb to the winner. Current win odds of 27 look a tad high and 5/TBP placed is around the 4.2 mark and even 6/TBP could end up at 3.50.

For those that like shorties, i think Alpha will win at the Curragh (14.50). Was impressive in her penultimate run and although only workmanlike when winning LTO, the race didn't go to plan. Current odds of around 1.9 should hold up with Green Empress in the field, this one gave Sun Goddess a race and we all saw how good she is at York on Thursday. Not only this one, Dancing Destiny the filly Alpha beat LTO by a head LTO also runs. Irrespective of these valid rivals we may see the real Alpha this afternoon to reinforce her favourtism for next years classic.

As for a lay selection Lazy Griff at Chester (14.40) has not really progressed as may have been envisaged by a horse who was 2nd and 3rd in the Epsom and Curragh Derbys respectively in 2025. Although consistent, has only won a listed race since and i think is probably better suited to the longer trips of 16f (aka the Prix Cadran at Longchamp on soft) or even further and he concedes weight to the field. Highest rated, but in my opinion 2.90 is short enough, so i'm a layer.

I noticed Diamond Necklace is declared for Deauville tomorrow, a pity as i wanted her to run in the Prix Vermeille in 2 weeks. Of course she could run in both, but it's a big ask.

Our syndicate horse Lady Of Clover runs at Lingfield (17.40) this evening, but it's a big step up in trip. It doesn't look a strong field, but the trip is an unknown of course and breeding certainly doesn't scream out 12f. If she runs well Windsor on Saturday is also on the cards. I like it there and and i wouldn't mind going over if this was the case, but i go to Paris on 5th September for Longchamp on the following day and i'm travelling a fair bit at the moment so i will see how she runs. We will probably only have 3 more runs out of her before she goes to the HIT sales at Newmarket in October.

Good luck and have a nice Saturday all.

Thank you   ANDREW

Well  done ANDREW   Lazy Griff 

Not so well done ANDREW Alpha

Andrew, well done with Lady Of Clover, seems a trip is what she needs.

Congrats on LoC Andrew (and the other members).

You put us away Andrew ,seriously though well done and it was a well backed 2/1 fav

Nice winner Andrew, congratulations to yourself and the syndicate.

If there again next year try Delrio's at Micklegate for an excellent Italian dinner..often frequented by the Coolmore gang plus top jockeys. Make sure you book very early as difficult to get in

A quick summary of my post last Sunday

hardly, War and Peace was less onerous

Thanks for positive comments
Wherever the late money came from it wasn't from us as (as far as I know) going off as short as 2/1 was surprising but even more unexpected was to get shuffled back early and then win like she did. Factoring in the uncertainty of her stamina the way she finished the race was very pleasing to see.

A small syndicate run by a good friend who works in the City and has been known to a few of us for many years. This has been so much fun. The 3 horses, Salamanca Lad, Calibos and LOC we have been lucky to share have given us 6 wins. Good group and have known each other for a fair while and go racing often together.

Good Morning All,

Many thanks for the posts.

I concur what Lucky Luicano posted above, we've certainly had a run of luck with our 3 syndicate horses, every one a winner, number 2 for Lady Of Clover and still almost 2 more months to try for another and equal Salamanca Lad's record of 3. Most of the team were surprised at an entry for a 12f trip, it's almost 4f further than she had ever run before, even though the team philosophy is to buy a horse we think can improve going up in trip (we never planned 12f). George inditimated in a WhatsApp audio she would go close if she got the trip and she certainly did, in fact, she quickened again in the last 100 yards. 3 sectionals under 12 seconds, her last 3 furlong splits were the fastest with a 103% finishing speed. Admittedly it was a quite a weak field and maybe some of the beaten ones didn't stay on, but a win is a win.

As LL mentioned, a good group of friends who first got together at Newmarket back in October 2021 and subsequently met up for racing in Ireland, GB and France.

The win didn't go unnoticed by the handicapper, up 7lb to a mark of 59 a bit more than i envisaged post-race, but at least it's still under 60. She has several entries next week including a couple over even longer trips, 14f and 15f; i don't know what George is thinking, but he's trained more winners than us, so let's see. I sent a message back saying let's keep her and enter for the Prix Cadran in 2027 (20f).

Speaking of George, i hope to meet him at Longchamp on Sunday week as he may be running Wimbledon Hawkeye and Bay City Roller in the Prix Foy, a recognised Arc trial, but will the going be soft enough for the latter. A few showers are forecast for Paris today, but it's generally warm and dry during the week. If he doesn't run the Irish champion is an alternative. The Prix Foy could be a decent field with Daryz and Goliath from the Francis Graffard stable in the field, the first named ran in a public gallop at Deauville earlier this week with a couple of stablemates (Ebiyar and Shadirwan) and was not given a hard time in going well clear, but this was only to be expected as they are both rated under 93. With a few being pulled out of the Arc, Daryz is certainly the rightful favourite at the moment and he had excuses at Ascot LTO, but it's too early to make firm predictions, there's a lot of racing up to October 4th and the draw often plays a big part.

On to this afternoon, 7 meetings in GB and Ireland including 6 group fields and not an AW fixture in sight. At Sandown, i think the 2 year old Cracksman colt Breacher can win the Solairio stakes (15.30). He won his maiden at Salisbury cosily by 2.5L in June and although stepping up to a G3, he looked good that day and could be useful although it looks a decent field. Appears to be well regarded by the trainer according to reports, but he has to prove it of course.

A couple of lay selections, the first is Zavateri at Goodwood (15.10) who was a decent 2 year-old, but has failed to win in 4 previous runs, i don't think he's the horse he was and i'm not convinced he really wants a mile. Top rated and receives the age allowance are positives for backers, but 2.80 to back is short enough.

Rosario at Sandown (17.10) is another who hasn't won in a while (last win was May 2025 off a mark of 94) and as a result is coming down in the handicap (runs off 85 today). Has a tendency to dwell at the start and usually races from off the pace; he will need luck in running on this course over 5f. His turn will surely come, but i don't think it will be this afternoon.

Both selections are risky lays, especially the first one, but i will be playing them.

Chavman

I beg to differ, with respect to 'War and Peace' my quick summary was only 4 sentences referring to the previous week. I started the next paragraph with "moving on ............ I tried to make it easier reading than WAP as well.

Good luck and have a nice Saturday all.

inditimated should be intimated

Thank you Andrew and well done with your syndicate horse. You have had fantastic good fortune.

I agree with the lay on Zavateri, first time he has run so quickly and I feel there must have been an issue we don't know about and under 2/1 is certainly a lay. EJH horses not exactly banging in either 2/26 although she did win with one yesterday at the course.

Rosario I am not so sure about. Teals horses have been dire until a couple of weeks ago and he is now in form. Off 85 is too tempting a back down in Class 4.

Good luck.

Good morning all,

Trusty, many thanks for the post, your thoughts are always appreciated. WD with intimating Rosario was a risk.

A wasted 15 minutes typing for my part at least as far as the selections went, both lays were heavily backed @ 11/10f and 6/5f (2 non-runners in the later race) and both won, albeit in opposing ways. Zavateri was impressive at Goodwood, the 8f and soft going wasn't an inconvenience at all; in fact he was quite possibly the easiest winner of the day. Rosario, ran as he often does, dwelt at the start and came with a late from off the pace, but the runner-up was catching him fast and only failed by a short head, another couple of strides and it was a different result. I did mention both were risky lays and so it proved.

The win selection, Breacher (100/30) ran well at Sandown considering lack of race experience, he finished strongly and only went down by 0.5L and the same in 3rd place. Entered for the Champagne stakes later this month, but i think he will be better over 8f and will certainly win races.

Our syndicate filly Lady of Clover has been declared for Lingfield @ 19.00 this evening. It looks a stronger field than LTO, hopefully she has improved after the summer break and her win was not only due to a field where a few may not have stayed the 12f trip. Back to 10f, she has the highest BHA rating and as the only 3-year-old in the field, the 2nd lowest weight if the jockey claim is taken into account (Liam has lost his 5lb claim now). She was also entered for Southwell (14f) on Monday and another race on the Lingfield card (15f)  so hopefully George Scott has chosen well. Fingers crossed.

I arrived in Crawley yesterday and will be at Lingfield to watch her run, meeting a few of the usual Fellowship Racing team there. A few days of travelling as i go to Paris on Saturday night for the Arc trials at Longchamp on Sunday, one of my favourite meetings. 25 euros entry, sit where you want, 7 group races if you include the Arab one and not the large Arc crowds to contend with, so no queues for anything. Back to the world of aerospace on Monday.

As for the Longchamp card per se, where do i start, there are so many decent ones running including the 2-year-old Avec Toi, one i will be particularly interested in, as is Daryz in the Prix Foy (this race doesn't throw up many Arc winners) but more on these races on Sunday.

I haven't had chance to review all the cards today, but there was one at Clonmel I(17.48) i thought was a lay, Tutu Twist placed in her 4 runs including a couple P2P's, but appears to be one paced and will a sharp track suit. I couldn't see reasons for current odds of 6/4 with so many unexposed runners in the field.

On a sad note, the sudden passing away of Galopin Des Champs, one of the best chasers to ever come out of Ireland and a very popular one, certainly one i really liked and saw run on a few occasions. RIP.

Good luck and have a nice Thursday all.

Good morning Andrew. Good luck with your filly tonight.I have picked one against you (J. Boyle) so that is a positive for Lady of Clover's chance.. I actually looked in to see if you had any thoughts for Longchamp today which is quite good racing. By the way, you do know that Clonmel is not on today, or has the Racing Post got that wrong.

For Clonmel see Kilbeggan.   Measure twice and cut once Andrew !   Good Luck.

Thank you ANDREW    G/L

Tommy/Glasgow,

Thanks, as for Kilbeggan v Clonmel, i don't know what to blame, age, eyesight, lack of concentration, travelling or maybe a combination of all 4

Thanks Lampus

Tommy,

I looked at the Longchamp card earlier and didn't fancy much, but I thought the Francis Graffard favourite in the 14.40 was short enough. The Irish trained Amor Supreme wouldn't have to improve much on RPR and could make all and win from the plum draw in 1.

Hi Andrew. Agree the 2.40 looks tricky but I don't touch 2yo races. I picked out 4 this morning for a lucky 15 but when I got to Lads three were quite short, at least shorter than I look for.
3.15 City Queen
3.50 Warriors Whisper
4.25 Godspeed
5.00 Box Officer
Anyway have a good time at Lingfield a track I've not visited yet.

Thank you ANDREW

Good morning All,

Many thanks for the posts, more on Lady Of Clover tomorrow to save time as i'm in Paris for the Arc trials this afternoon, so breakfast and a walk in the city as it's a beautiful sunny morning.

A superb card, 9 races with 7 group class if you include the Arab G1. One of my favourite meetings here, 25 euros entry, no Arc type crowds so sit where you like without queues for drink and a bet. It has a favourites look to it, but that doesn't mean they will all win of course and i will be against one of them.

To keep things short, i think Avec Toi wins the opener (12.58) the best 2 year old in France, rated 110, who was impressive at Deauville LTO. I expect he will be returning here during Arc weekend.

In the Prix Moulin (3.25) i think the likely favourire Gstaad is a lay on the envisaged softish going and the Francis Graffard trained Erdenali could win with his good turn of foot, but my bet is the lay.

Our trainer George Scott runs Bay City Roller in the Prix Foy (4.35) a recognised Arc trial, but this race doesn't produce many winners of it. Sure to run well, but i can't see Daryz beaten here, although the odds reflect this.

Finally, in the Arab G1 race (5.15) the favourite Hm Alchah!ine should win and is another who will be running on Arc Sunday.

Not exactly inspired selections, but they are ones i expect to provide a profit with Avec Toi the banker.

Good luck all and have a nice Sunday, i certainly will.

Thank you ANDREW  G/L

Thanks Lampus.

A bit close in the opener, but Avec Toi got the job done where it mattered, he looked in trouble 500 metres out. To be fair, he stayed on very well when challenged and was conceding 3lb and 7lb to the placers. The form is good and he's unbeaten in 4 now. It would have been a bad day for me if he was beaten, but he wasn't. I didn't play in the fillies race and i will swerve the handicap next.

A small crowd here, at least in the stand, but it may pick up.

THANK YOU ANDREW  LAY  AND WINNER   

wd ais

Have I got this wrong  - just looking back at Baldings short priced favs  - over last 70+ runs - laying him is miles more profitable

All fav's at York tanked - need to study the laying game . must be easier than trying to find winners

Thank you ANDREW for the other 3 mentions  2-1 treble 

it looks easier flashman till you  actually start laying then they seem to improve 7 to 10 pound

Good Evening All,

Many thanks for the posts, appreciated as always and to Lampus, WD on your bet.

A summary of my Arc trials meeting experience at Longchamp last Sunday. Weather wise, it was a bright and sunny early morning in the La Défense area, cloudy and overcast when i arrived on course, but improved later with a high of 27c and no breeze. A small crowd to start with, although it picked up a bit in the afternoon, albeit nowhere near what would be expected if the same meeting was in GB or Ireland; this always surprises me considering the meeting has 7 group races and almost on a par with champions day at Ascot for example. Mind you, the upside is no major queues for refreshments or placing bets and only 25 euros entry.

As per the norm in France, the official announcement of the going was bon-souple (good to soft) even France Galop continue to this day with a ridiculous assertion on their web-site although the RP are more accurate with good to firm, on a day when 2 track records were broken.

From a betting perspective, a superb afternoon and my morning post with 5 selections was 100% although the shorties were easy enough to pick. In the opener, my banker, the 2 year old unbeaten Avec Toi duly obliged, only just though and at one stage i actually thought he was going to be picked up, but fair play to the horse, he battled on well when headed. Surprisingly he made the running, was conceding a G3 weight penalty to the placers (the runner-up was also unbeaten) racing on summer going for the first time and didn't win as i expected, but it didn't matter in the end. If he had lost, i may have done so on the day as i had a good few bob on, although the odds were disappointing, i never expected him to be as short.

I didn't bet in the next couple of races and went for a small win/place on Pink Panthera in the Prix Vermeille (2nd @ 10/1) (BSP was 4.0 for the place).

In the next i laid the odds-on Gstaad to win a few bob and also had a small win on Erdenali, unfortunately on the PMU (9/2) as he was much bigger with ISP/BSP, but a double whammy win nevertheless with the favourite well beaten. Earlier in the season i thought Constitution River was the best 3-year-old in Europe, but i may have to rethink this although we can forget his York run, he was edgy in the parade ring, it was a manic pace and he was up with it for most of the race that wasn't the plan and he actually did well to finish 3rd. French Galop have them both rated on a converted 123 and Item is on 126, although i feel there could be a change after Leopardstown tomorrow. It's a pity Erdenali will not be going to Longchamp during Arc weekend, connections are considering the Breeders cup for him, he looks a bit special and should be unbeaten (so unlucky at Chantilly).

I didn't have a bet in the Prix Niel.

Daryz had a simple task against Bay City Roller in the Prix Foy and i had another decent bet, it was basically buying money, even trainer George Scott (in attendance) said Bay City Roller wouldn't win on the firm going. A very slow pace, but once Daryz loomed up on the outside of BCR at the 200-metre marker there was only one winner under a hands and heel ride.  In my opinion, if we saw the Arc winner during the afternoon, it was him, i couldn't have the other trial winners. He has an incredible winning record at Longchamp (7 from 8) and 2 of his losses were down to hatred of travelling to Ascot and York, not the going. I'm not suggesting he's the Arc winner at the moment, let's see the draw first as it benefits those low, but he's certainly the rightful favourite.

If i had to take one runner from the meeting (apart from Erdenali) it would be the filly Pink Panthera who came from a long way back in the Prix Vermeille and almost caught the winner Friendly Soul, just as she had done behind Diamond Necklace at Chantilly. Not entered for the Arc (needs to be supplemented) but i suspect she will take in the Prix de L'Opera over shorter. This race could be a decent field if many of the fancied ones turn up, but will they.

I left after the Prix Foy, even though i expected the favourite to win the following race, the Arab G1. I saw him win it last year, but i was well in front and didn't need to get greedy and stay for a 1/3 winner.

A really nice afternoon, certainly a profitable one and although only a short weekend, in a city i love and know well, so roll on October 1st when i return for longer (Thursday to Monday). A frustrating trip back to the airport later in the evening though (hotel overnight) as the RER train was not running due to track maintenance so i had to go to a small town North of Paris, then take a replacement bus. Not such a big deal when i knew exactly what was going on and where to go, but even locals didn't seem to know either. It was strange, the train was running fine in the opposite direction 24 hours earlier.

Prior to Longchamp, i was at Lingfield on Thursday to watch our syndicate filly Lady Of clover, my first visit to the course and i was pleasantly surprised, much better than i was expecting and we were treated well in the owner's and trainer's lounge. I only had 2 bets on course, our filly and the other also a loser, but i had a winner away to pay for the latter. A nice afternoon with a few of the regulars i go racing with and the weather was good. In the race per se, the pace was slow and a disappointing result (4th) more so as i backed her 3/TBP and she only lost out by a short head, running on well at the finish after being outpaced 2.5f out. I read on the forum she went 1.3 IR, unbelievable, she was never those odds to win. She will probably step up in trip now and we envisage a couple more runs (one possible option next Friday) before being sold at the HIT sales/Newmarket in late October.

On to this evening, one i will be laying is Miss Guinevere at Salisbury (18.28) who looks short enough after being backed and is now 15/8. Ran well enough in 3rd (of 5) when upped in trip LTO, but on firm going that will be the opposite today. Tends to race from the rear and will be wide going around the bend from stall 9, albeit on the rail in the home straight, but will she get a clear run.

Good luck and have a nice evening all.

Well Done on your lay ANDREW

Sadly  for me I  saw your  post  too  late

Thanks for your report of last weekend at Lonchamp always appreciated.

Longchamp

Good afternoon All,

Lampus and Tommy thank you for your posts, appreciated.

A shorter post than normal as i'm heading to the centre soon. The lay selection, Miss Guinevere drifted a little to 9/4f and raced from the rear as expected, but was never going to trouble the leader who won cosily by 3L, eventually finishing 3rd.

Good racing in UK and Ireland today, 6 meetings, 11 Black type races including 5 group 1's with the oldest classic the St Leger at Doncaster. From a betting perspective, a few of my bets will evolve around Aidan O'Brien, albeit opposing types. I think the Leger is more open than the betting may indicate on a course that doesn't suit all horses. The name O'Brien appears on 6 of the 11 runners as a trainer and whilst one of these is the highest rated Christmas Day (118) i think he's a lay at the current odds of 3.15. Although he won the Epsom Derby, it was on going that several of his main rivals didn't handle well and i haven't been impressed in his subsequent runs at the Curragh or York (i was on course for the latter meeting). There's no doubting he is a stayer, but in my opinion would be better over the longer trips, he seems one paced to me. No Ryan Moore today and will the ground be soft enough. Class horse of the race and could hose up, but i don't think so, hence the lay.

Across the Irish sea, i'm willing to forgive Constitution River his York blip in the Juddmonte, in fact you could draw a line through the form as not much went right for him at all. Very edgy in the parade ring, stumbled soon after the start, keen in the race that was run at a manic pace where he was too far close to it, hung left 3f out and finished tired, in fact he ran well to stay on in 3rd beating the odds-on favourite Ombudsman. He can turn the tables on the two who finished in front of him on this course. Lambourn will probably make the running at a decent pace, but i don't expect to see Ryan close to it today. I'm not surprised he's the current favourite, although i thought the front 3 would be closer in the betting.

In the same race, i'm laying Item a decent 3-year-old without question, but the Juddmonte may have been handed to him under the circumstances. Undefeated in 3 runs at York, but it's Leopardstown over a slightly shorter trip this afternoon, i also think he may be better over 12f. The race could decide who travels to Longchamp for the Arc next month, but i have a feeling none of the main 3 protagonists will.

Changing topic, i read in the RP that Willie Carson thinks the sprinter Ka Ying Rising can't be compared to Dayjur, i sense a case of him wearing Rose-tinted spectacles here. No doubt he's one of the best sprinters of bygone years, but it's quite possible the Hong Kong based runner is the best ever with 21 consecutive wins and several track records in the process. Regular readers of my threads know i was all over him for the Everest at Randwick last year when he hosed up and i fully expect a repeat on October 17th, but there's no way he will be even money.

Good luck and have a nice Saturday all.

Thank you ANDREW   G/L

Thank you ANDREW   

Well done Andrew, will Christmas Day be a pacemaker next season?

Thank you ANDREW   Great  Laying   

Well played Andrew.

Good afternoon All,

Many thanks for the posts, always appreciated.

I mentioned yesterday my betting would evolve around Aiden O'Brien and in the main it did with a profitable outcome, albeit one of them a loser. I was always going to be against Christmas Day, laid at odds of 3.15 and 3.20 and added to this at lower odds closer to race time, i never thought he would be 13/8 (at one time, SP 7/4). I just don't think he's that good even though he's an Epsom Derby winner, but this is not always a positive anyway, Lambourn and Serpentine in recent years are testament to this. Finishing a well beaten 9th of 11 and over 15L behind the winner means he probably didn't give his true running, but it's certainly not a good look in the stud book and i think we may see him running as a 4-year-old. 

As for the winner, WD Saffie, a very likeable young jockey who i feel will surpass Hollie in years to come.

I had several bets in the Irish Champion stakes, a win and 3/TBP on Constitution River at BSP (1.28) laid Item (2.48 and 2.56) in a match bet, and a win lay of the same horse (3.2) collecting with the 3/TBP and the lays. It's not that often i play a win and lay in the same race for the obvious reason, but it pays off sometimes, as it did last weekend at Longchamp.

I felt reasonably confident he would reverse form with the front two from York for reasons i mentioned in my post and although only finishing 3rd beaten less than a length, it wasn't a poor run by any means, only tiring in the last 50 metres or so. No excuses, but maybe he was still feeling the effects of a hard race that was only just over 3 weeks away. He's not the superstar i thought he may become after his Chester win, but 5 wins from 8, including 3 group races is not too shabby and there's still Ascot to come. I fully expect him to be retired to the breeding sheds thereafter.

I was at München Riem racecourse in July when the winner and runner-up finished first and third respectively in the G1 Bayerisches Zuchtrennen, little did i think then either of these would fight out finish of the Irish Champion. I felt for our trainer George Scott being beaten by a head-bob, he's certainly improved the runner-up since he was transferred from James Owen and is fast becoming one of the better young trainers around. We may see the horse at Ascot next month.

Moving on to this afternoon, quality cards at Longchamp and the Curragh with a few shorties at the latter course, but i will not be backing any of them. A trio of Group 3 races in Paris and i will have a couple of small win bets. The first is Rayevka (13.33) who has the higher rated Stolen Kiss to beat, but the draw, that is so vital on the 5f course favours the former who has run well enough at Ascot and York recently. I was at Longchamp when he won at the classic meeting in May and was i impressed with his turn of foot.

There's a potential Arc runner running later (15.25) Daryzan, but i was against him when he finished 2nd (6/5) LTO and the same today as i think the year older Phineas may win, even though he has to concede 7lb and the other one is rated 2lb higher. He's improved at a rate of knots running up a hat trick and was actually backed (6/5) to beat Daryz last year. Could be a good race between the two, but i think Phineas will win.

I don't fancy anything strongly at the domestic meetings, but if there one to be laid at short odds (currently 2.88) maybe Q T Boy at Bath (14.40) is a potential candidate up in trip. It looks a very close knit handicap with a few unexposed 2 year olds. 

Second Again

Christmas Day is not good enough to be a pacemaker next season

Good luck and have a nice Sunday all.

One of my pet hates. Here we have one of the world's greatest ever trainers but so many can't spell his name correctly. It's AidAn. 2 a's no e's. Cheers.

Slickster,

I'm fully aware and have spelt it correctly many times on my threads, so was it typing error or simply lack of concentration.

Please pass on my apologies to Aidan.

Is Aiden s  on  form

Think you'd better pull Lampus up on his grammar,slickster...I'd have expected better from him!

An apostrophe ALSO missing. Desperate stuff.

Morning all

Good morning All,

Thank you for the posts, appreciated.

A poor start with my selections last Sunday with a couple going down, but Maxime Guyon saved the day with an easy, eased down win on the well backed favourite Phineas (10/11) at Longchamp. I expect we will see him run in the Prix Dollar a couple of weeks away where he will be well fancied, but it looks a decent field if all the main protagonists run, including a few current Arc hopefuls.

A shorter post than usual for a Saturday as i didn't really fancy anything too strongly today. A total of 6 meetings in England and Ireland with a trio of G3 races at Chantilly so something for everyone, but if there was ever a reason to suggest there is too much racing the AW card at Newcastle is a valid one. 9 races, 7 handicaps (6 of them class 6) and a couple of maidens. I appreciate some punters love these cards, not for me though, if i had to make a living backing on them, i wouldn't be able to afford to even live on the streets.

Newbury features the Mill Reef stakes, not a race that has produced a superstar, i guess Ribchester would be the best in recent years and Mon Fils went on to win the 2000 guineas in 1972, the year of inception. Mill Reef is certainly one of the greats in racing history, my 2nd favourite horse after Frankel and thoroughly deserves to have a race named after him along with Brigadier Gerard, Nijinsky (in the past) and several under the NH umbrella, but surely it's time Frankel had one and ideally at Ascot.

On to this afternoon, i think Arapaho Gold wins the Mill Reef stakes at Newbury (14.12). If he was trained by Appleby or Gosden, he would be odds against, although i wouldn't want to lump on by any means. Has the beating of Nabati on Newbury form in July albeit only by a neck, but the favourite has improved more than Charlie's runner. I will be a layer of Jolivette the only filly in the field who is often keen in her races. 

Up at Ayr Dance in the Storm would be an appropriate winner in view of the weather there this morning, but as a very tentative EW selection Fine Interview is my choice as a fun bet who will love the envisaged heavy going. Although only 9th at York LTO, wasn't beaten far and is relatively lightly raced for a 5 year old (6-2-4 from 18 runs). Odds of 13 for the ewin and 5/TBP pays just over 3 to cover the stakes.

Karl Burke sends Rosberg to Chantilly for the G3 2 year-old race (12.28) and he may even end up odds-on. Winner of a listed race at Deauville LTO, but it was very soft that day, not many got into it and the form hasn't exactly been franked. A lay for me and it wouldn't surprise me if the Andre Fabre trained Ciceron won, although he's been off since June.

Changing topic, our syndicate filly Lady Of Clover is entered for a 16f race at Southwell next Tuesday; i have asked if George has any hurdles at home.

PHS thanks for the ttt.

Good luck and have a nice Saturday all.

Thank you ANDREW

Karl Burke sends Rosberg to Chantilly for the G3 2 year-old race (12.58)

W/D  ANDREW   lay of Rosberg   

W/D  ANDREW  lay of Jolivette

WD Andrew, even the big field hcp winner (4th @12/1) paying out. Nice "I wouldn't want to lump on" enough to put me off the loser.

Good Morning All,

Lampus/PHS, thank you for the posts, appreciated.

The 2 lay selections Rosberg and Jolivette were both beaten (5/4f and 4/1) and one i thought could win the Chantilly race was beaten a head (11/4). The winner certainly franked the form of Avec Toi, a particular favourite of mine who beat him over 4L at Deauville in his penultimate race and i may be backing this one in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere on Arc Sunday. Unfortunately, i didn't lay Julivette as she had drifted, i would have when she was 2nd fav (the winner was well backed). I backed the EW selection in the Ayr Gold Cup, Fine Interview that yielded a small profit.

On to this afternoon, typical Sunday cards and i didn't really fancy anything anywhere, not even a lay selection. Group races in Germany (G3 St Leger) and Sweden (G1 Stockholm Cup) with entries from England at the latter. Several runners from our shores have won this race and several more than once, including Collier Hill (2004/2006) and few of the older readers may remember Clovenford who did the same, albeit a dead heat in 1971.

Both countries are a signifcant part of my life CV especially the latter, spending many years in both, but in all my time in Sweden, i never went to a flat horse racing meeting (known as Galopp up there) although i went to a few trotting courses in my earlier years. Betfair don't cover either meeting, although i guess our high st bookmakers do, but i'm not interested who wins today. 

For those that like shorties, there's a listed race at Strasbourg and Horizon Dore looks the more likely winner (12.40) he's better class than these and only a year ago was running against the likes of Sosie and Map Of Stars. In June he was runner-up behind Phineas, one i've mentioned in glowing terms before (won 4 in a row now) and anything close to this form would be hard to beat here. Bookmaker opinion is varied, he was at quoted odds of 10/11 to 4/7 on Oddschecker earlier, but it appears 8/11 is now best. At least Betfair cover this race and 1.70 is worth taking, although if he went much shorter i wouldn't bother. 

Domestically, i didn't see a lay worth considering, but if i had to put up a selection, French Diablo at Plumpton (15.38) would be one, albeit tentative. He won 3 races ago, but only 2 runners got into it, 2 didn't finish and 2 were basically tailed off. Up in trip and although it's not a strong field, i don't think he's shown enough to win here.

Looking ahead to 2 weeks today, it's the Arc at Longchamp, but with so many questions about who will actually be declared and knowing the draw is significant, any selections amount to guessing and bets are obviously risky. At the moment Daryz is the rightful favourite and with a decent draw will be hard to beat, but i certainly don't want to back at 2.88 on here today. Thinking out loud, i feel the English runners will not win it, Ireland could if Diamond Necklace runs and it may even be a turn-up and with a French outsider, but more on this in due course.

Good luck and have a nice Sunday all.

Good evening All,

A couple of selections last Sunday, the lay French Diablo who was favourite at Plumpton finished well beaten, but those who followed the other bet, a back on what probably became the best backed runner of the week, let alone the day, in Horizon Dore at Strasbourg would have felt aggrieved at the result.

At 08.00 on Oddschecker B/365 were offering 11/8 with most of the others 11/10. In my post i mentioned i saw 10/11, then 8/11 at time of posting. The eventual ISP was 2/5 (as was the PMU). In the race per se, Horizon Dore followed an average pace behind Menuro and was travelling well enough in 2nd, but off the final bend he veered across the course to the opposing side, surely losing lengths in the process and raced alone, whether accidental or by design is hard to tell, maybe Demuro was looking for better ground, but he's used to soft at Longchamp. He finished strongly and rallied, but failed by 0.5L to reel in the leader. When he finished runner-up behind Phineas recently, he had Menuro 7L back in last place, but that's racing.

Our syndicate horse, Lady Of Clover runs at Southwell this evening (19.30) but 16f is obviously an unknown, her breeding certainly doesn't scream out 16f and it looks a better field than her few previous runs. She was staying on well over 12f in her penultimate race, but another 4f is a different ball game. The fav could be hard to beat, although i never expected her to be so short, she may even end up odds-on. Fingers crossed, but i will be happy with a place for LoC. She's been favourite in 3 of her previous 4 runs, but will not be this evening.

I suspect we may only have one more run after today before she goes to the HIT sales at Newmarket in late October and we start over again. A few of the team will be on course (aöready there) but not me, as i'm off to Linköping/Sweden early Thursday morning for 5 days.

George is probably more concerned about his several Arc weekend runners with one eye on the weather that's not looking promising for AP backers of Bay City Roller (amongst others) wanting soft. Rain is forecast in Paris for next Monday, but temperatures of 26c tomorrow and 28c on Friday following a very warm September will dry out any moisture there is and Tuesday onwards it will be dry and sunny.

George may also have similar concerns with the alternative race at Ascot, the forecast is not exactly indicating soft going there either. Personally, i don't think BCR would beat Daryz at Longchamp anyway, with possible exception of heavy going and that is very unlikely. Irrespective of what race BCR runs in, he will probably be going to München for the G1 in November, a race he won in 2025.

Who wins the Arc, i have no idea yet, but i think the winner will be French trained, i can't see any of the English, German or Japanese trained entries winning and very few of the Irish. I will wait for the Arc final decs and the draw before i play anything during weekend, in fact, i don't have any AP bets for anywhere at the moment.

If there is a lay bet later Afraj is a potential, albeit risky candidate on tapeta debut at Southwell (18.30). Won LTO beating Murrey in a photo who reopposes (1lb better off) but it was a bunch finish between the front 7. Raised 2lb and he won well to be fair, coming with a strong run on the outside, but will need luck from the rear in this field that looks a trappy fillies handicap.

Good luck and have a nice evening all.

beating Merry in a photo

I hope your horse runs well Andrew.

Good Afternoon All,

Second Again

Thank you for the post.

A short summary as i'm meeting friends for lunch with a beer or 2 and i'm short of time. I arrived home in Linköping on Thursday for a 5 day break, part of my usual routine every 5 weeks or so, September is certainly a travelling month for me.

The lay selection Afraj drifted from 9/4 to 7/2 and finished 4th, nver really looking like winning.

Our filly, Lady Of Clover ran well at Southwell on Tuesday evening to finish 3rd, not beaten far after looking a potential winner 2f out, her first run over an extended 16f. She had been favourite in 3 of her last 4 runs, and was 2nd fav 5 races ago, so it was refreshing to see her 6/1 that made the 3/TBP an appealing bet, irrespective of the trip that was an unknown. She attained a career best RPR of 65 in the race, but i doubt the handicapper will change her mark at all on Tuesday. The plan is one more race before the HIT sales at Newmarket in late October.

On to this afternoon and the Cheveley Park stakes (2.27 Newmarket) a race for 2 year olds and one of my favourite sprints in the Autumn along with the Middle Park. Going back in time, i remember backing the Bruce Hobbs trained Cry Of Truth with a nice few bob, i had been telling everyone who was prepared to listen (probably very few ) she was the winner. Apologies for the after-time, and no i can't post the bet.

Aidan O'Brien has won 6 of the previous 10 runnings of the race and although i never thought i would say this, i've already laid his runner Sun Goddess @ 2.58. I'm a big fan of the filly and have backed her several times, but she's had 7 runs already and i was expecting Aidan to wait for the Prix Marcel Boussac at Longchamp next weekend. Although winning impressively recently, she has a tendency to dwell at the start and she's meeting a different level of rival today who are more adept at sprinting; i feel that 7f and maybe even 8f is probably better suited now that Autumn is here and she could be caught out. My idea of the winner is Senorita Bonita who looked very good at Deauville beating the males, but it's a decent field and certainly not a match. Her 2 main rivals are much lighter raced and will probably improve again, SB is only 2lb behind her on BHA ratings, and level on 125 with RPR. Several of these have a turn of foot and with Snowing taking them along it could be a cracking race from the 2f marker, but i was really taken with SB at Deauville. Mind you, it would not surprise me if Sun Goddess wins, she's could simply be an exceptional filly.

As it's Saturday, a Heritage handicap, this time the Cambridgeshire, not my type of betting medium for large stakes, but i've laid the Gosden favourite Gavriel @ 6.0. It's not so often i lay this high, but much of the price is down to the trainer, an improving 3 year old and the old adage of a potential group horse in a handicap. Drawn in 28, he will need luck in running and may actually prefer further.

My tentative fancy is Alcarath who has only ever won a novice stakes, but has run well in decent handicaps recently including LTO when he was keen and lost on a head bob. Another who may prefer another furlong, but if Rossa is handy approaching the 2f pole could go on to win, although these large field handicaps are never easy. Currently odds of 17 and 3.3 for the 5/TBP for a small stake.

Good luck and have a nice Saturday all.

Thank you ANDREW