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Andrew-In-Sweden
08 Feb 26 15:09
Joined:
Date Joined: 01 Apr 25
| Topic/replies: 858 | Blogger: Andrew-In-Sweden's blog
Good afternoon Guys,

A new year (albeit belated) so a new thread, following on from the initial one i started in April 2018 and repeated every year since.

The past few years have been dismal in terms of P/L lay selections, generally due to mega workload and travelling. Although the P/L selections reduced dramatically there were winners (and losers) not only from myself, but others that actually like to discuss horse racing. I really appreciate the efforts from those involved and the thread per se appears to still be popular even if the forum isn't what it was.

The P/L lay selection format is based on only one post in any given day (to prevent chasing) bookmaker odds of 5/2 or under and matched to win a stake of £50 (not liability). Overall, the threads since 2018 are in profit, but posting a P/L for the past few years is actually meaningless due to the few selections, but at least there is transparency and all on a single thread.

Lay Threads Record

Andrews Daily Lay Thread 2018 (Spring/Summer)
Total 66 selections
Success 55/66
Strike rate 83%
Thread profit +£1657

Andrews Daily Lay Thread 2018 (late Summer/Winter)
Total 64 selections
Success 46/64
Strike rate 72%
Thread profit +£425

Andrews Random Daily Lay Thread 2019
Total 78 selections
Success 55/78
Strike rate 70%
Thread profit +£219

Andrews Random Lay Thread 2020
Total 36 selections
Success 25/36
Strike rate 69%
Thread profit +£79

Andrews 2021 Lay Thread
Total 28 selections
Success 18/28
Strike rate 64%
Thread profit +£0.50

Andrews 2022 Lay Thread
Total 18 selections
Success 10/18
Strike rate 55%
Thread Loss -£202.50

Andrews 2023 Lay Thread
Total 6 selections
Success 2/6
Strike rate 33%
Thread Loss -£362.50

Andrews 2024 Lay Thread
Total 6 selections
Success 2/6
Strike rate 33%
Thread loss -£169

Andrews 2025 Lay Thread
Total 10 selections
Success 7/10
Strike rate 70%
Thread loss +£74
Pause Switch to Standard View Andrews 2026 Lay/Racing Thread
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Report Andrew-In-Sweden February 22, 2026 12:17 PM GMT
Glasgow

If you asked me what won the Epsom Derby 30-40 years ago, i may get it right, but what i had for breakfast last Monday, or what year we are in, forget it Laugh
Report the dealer February 22, 2026 12:28 PM GMT
All eyes on Tuesday now, to see what mark the handicapper gives her.
Report Andrew-In-Sweden February 22, 2026 1:04 PM GMT
The Dealer

I suggested a fun competition on the Fellowship Racing Syndicate WhatsApp group, there are guesses in a range of 48-60, but all in the 50's apart from these 2. I was more conservative at 52, but anything below 56 and i would be happy.

Glasgow

Thanks for the link, an exciting final. Mind you, i wouldn't have a clue these days even though i loved the sport back in time.
Report the dealer February 22, 2026 1:14 PM GMT
We did the same with ours (Evelyn's Garden) the other week there. The spread was from 49 to 60, she got 47.
Really happy with that and fingers crossed she can be competitive in her grade.
Report PHS February 22, 2026 10:00 PM GMT
Andrew,
You changed the gender of K Ying.... from female in para 1 to male in para 2.

The tips/lays could do with a bit of polishing tooGrin.
Report Andrew-In-Sweden February 25, 2026 1:29 PM GMT
Good afernoon Guys,

PHS

Female/male was simply down to a lack of concentration on my part and i rarely check the content once it's typed.

As for Sundays 2 selections, i hold my hands up, no excuses at all. The lay (11/8f) was going for a 5th win on the bounce and did it well to be fair, but was always a risky bet as i intimated. Atlantic Power was well supported late on (5/2) but didn't finish the race. I suspect trying to go with pace set by the leader didn't help and they were both PU along with another, the front 4 places being those who raced from the rear. Having said that i doubt anything would have beaten the winner however the race was run.

Roll on Cheltenham Happy

The Dealer

I wasn't aware you had another fllly, i remember Slainte Mhath who i guess is retired now ?. Looks to have a similar profile to ours, good luck with her. Our next run is envisaged for late March (AW) and we're happy with her opening mark of 50. Her first run on turf could be several weeks after this. I doubt she will turn out as good as Salamanca Lad, who is racing (and winning) in Bahrain now, but you can never tell with lightly raced fillies once the penny drops and they go handicapping. Fingers crossed to both of us.

Good luck and have a nice Wednesday all.
Report stewarts rise February 25, 2026 3:49 PM GMT
What a couple of numpties we are Andrew, how did we get it so wrong.Grin

stewarts rise20 Feb 26 19:49
It would be disastrous if ran and fell in CH if got injured or worse, i wouldn't want to risk it, hopefully get some nice races on Flat but who knows.

Andrew-In-Sweden
Andrew-In-Sweden20 Feb 26 19:52
I will be surprised if Nicky runs him at Cheltenham, irespective of how easily he won earlier.

slickster
slickster20 Feb 26 20:08
Err of course he runs in the champion. What else are you expecting??? Be it right or wrong he runs.
Report isleham February 25, 2026 5:31 PM GMT
Just for information our current horses with Jane Williams are:
Javert Allen
Knight of Allen
Lancelot Allen
Merlin Allen
Excelero
Naxos Allen (unraced)

It's impossible to get a really good horse on the Flat (imo)
Report Andrew-In-Sweden February 28, 2026 9:34 AM GMT
Good morning Guys,

Stewarts ´

I always thought he would never run in the CH, more so after the Southwell race. I suspect he will go to Newbury next as i mentioned here before.

Isleham

Quite a squad, good luck. Ownership at my level is simply for fun and as you say it's difficult to get a good one, but i've been lucky, my 3 previous ones all won, in fact Salamanca Lad ran up a hat trick and was only just beaten in another. A good day out with mates, plenty of banter, owners perks and dinner/drinks in the evening all add to the experience.

Pushed for time as i'm travelling, but the first lay post to come. One i did think was an EW bet is Holloway Boy at Meydan (4.00). Ran well in a G1 over CD in his penultimate race and could reverse form (3 runs ago) with Quddwah over this longer trip. Buick and stall 2 are both positives

Good luck and have a nice Saturday all.
Report Andrew-In-Sweden February 28, 2026 9:37 AM GMT
Lay Post

Kefir d'Oudairies - 3.05 Doncaster

A 6 year old Seahenge gelding trained by Olly Murphy in Stratford Upon Avon.

First foal from an unraced mare.

Lightly raced maiden over hurdles, winner of a bumper at Fakenham albeit basically a match. Similar run in a maiden hurdle in his penultimate race, but again it was a match with 2 of the 7 runner field not finishing and the 3 behind him were basically tailed off. Finished 4th of 5 on the same course LTO where the favourite didn't jump well at all.

Prone to errors and may act better on a sharp course. Up in class.

Lay @ 3.20

Good luck all.
Report Lampus February 28, 2026 11:55 AM GMT
Thank you ANDREW  Happy
G/L
Report Trusty February 28, 2026 3:11 PM GMT
WD AIS , good to have the Saturday lay back, easy.
Report Lampus February 28, 2026 3:12 PM GMT
Thank you ANDREW    easy peasy HappyHappy
Report gazza66 February 28, 2026 3:13 PM GMT
Thanks as always AIS, it actually went odds on in running but finished a distance fourth.
Report Andrew-In-Sweden March 1, 2026 11:06 AM GMT
Good morning Guys,

Many thanks for the posts, appreciated as always.

Good to start the belated lay posts this year with an unplaced favourite, Kefir d'Oudairies and although racing prominently and going odds-on IR, didn't appear to be the likely winner approaching the last flight where he was one paced and finished 4th, beaten 18.5L. I was surprised at the eventual SP of 11/8, i didn't see him that short. Lightly raced so may win in future, but may have to drop in class to do so.

The EW selection Holloway Boy at Meydan was another well backed (4/1) considering he was 7/1 with a few books in the morning. The slow pace was a farce (slowest time of the meeting) and resulted in a 2 furlong sprint, although to be fair probably didn't suit any of the field, including the winner Quddwah. Holloway Boy was caught flat footed and ran on well, but i doubt it made any difference to the result, he was simply beaten by a better horse.

On to this aftenoon and nothing jumps off the page, backing or laying, at least in GB. Regular readers know i follow the French racing, albeit primarily the flat, although i did to go Auteuil to watch II Est Francais run there in November 2024. The same trainer, one of my NH favourites over there runs a potential half-decent juvenile on the course (4.00) this afternoon, Novak, a two raced maiden, but only beaten by the likes of Narciso Has (1.5L) and the ill-fated Precious Man (a head). The latter form has been franked by the winner again (at Kempton) and the 3rd, 5th and 7th have also won since. Making his 2026 debut, but the stable can get them ready to run. No odds available, but any odds against is a bet.

Our ex-syndicate horse Calibos makes his hurdle debut in the opener at Huntingdon this afternoon, will be interesting to see how he get on for his new Swindon based trainer, but i will not be going even though i'm currently in the south of England; sadly for a family bereavement service on Tuesday.

We get updates from the one of the ex-owners who purchased a share for his wife as she adores him (the horse Wink) it was either that or buy the horse and let her keep it in the garden as a pet. Laugh

Good luck and have a nice Sunday all.
Report gazza66 March 1, 2026 12:00 PM GMT
Thanks for the update and your thoughts AIS, much appreciated. I see your ex-syndicate horse Calibos is available at 110/1 on Betfair, from that I assume he isn't fancied. With regard to Novak he is actually a shade over even money on Betfair so may be worth a wager.
Report Lampus March 1, 2026 12:05 PM GMT
Thank you ANDREW  G/L Happy
Report bettysboy March 1, 2026 12:15 PM GMT
Laurent has tipped this providing the same insights.
Report Andrew-In-Sweden March 1, 2026 1:17 PM GMT
Correct bettysboy, the form is there for everyone to see (he didn't mention Narcisco Has) but i would have posted it regardless. Good luck
Report bettysboy March 1, 2026 1:18 PM GMT
GL AIS as I had already backed it too
Report Andrew-In-Sweden March 1, 2026 1:58 PM GMT
Calibos finished 4th in the opener SP 125/1. A few of us backed first 4 places, although mine was only a fun stake.
Report Andrew-In-Sweden March 1, 2026 2:05 PM GMT
Gazza, apologies, i didn't see your post earlier. He wasn't really fancied and any bets by us were probably only for sentiment, but looks like a decent run and should obviously come on for the run. I'm in a Nero coffee shop and the signal is a bit sketchy, but i will watch later. I've also seen we have a jockey interview video.
Report the dealer March 1, 2026 2:40 PM GMT
Hi Andrew,

Slainte Mhath chipped a bone in her knee in her last race. Wasn't life threatening but after the operation, the vets advised against racing again. The hope is to breed off her but she isn't the most straight forward in her stable or with people, they will need a bravery award to get her covered. She is happy at the stud and being out in the fields.
Also kept my share in Falaise Blanc, he won a race, 2 seconds, 2 thirds and 3 unplaced for us last year. He will have a run at Newcastle before heading to the flat turf. He is a bit of a slow boat but he tries, is versatile trip and ground, he should give us loads of fun this year.
Report Andrew-In-Sweden April 3, 2026 1:28 PM BST
Good afternoon Guys,

My first post on this thread since 1st March, unfortunately, due to passing away of 2 younger siblings in less than 7 weeks, neither of whom had been ill, so very distressing for the family. Obviously over the initial shock, but we all know grieving takes time.

A 4 day weekend for Easter so at least i have some free time to post and watch some racing. Too many events to play catch-up with, but in short i had an OK Cheltenham, albeit very few bets, an AP on the Supreme winner (2/1) being the highlight and ensured a winning week. In another year, it could have been very profitable as several i follow including Lossiemouth, II Etait Temps and Gaelic Warrior went unbacked and all won.

Our syndicate 3 year old filly Lady Of Clover made her handicap debut at Wolverhampton on 24th March, running well to finish 3rd (12/1) after looking a likely winner off the bend for a few moments. This was much improved, although we sort of expected improvement after 3 'soft' runs. I can't comment too much out of respect for my fellow owners, but she is expected to make her turf debut later this month, the course already decided.

On the subject of syndicate runners, one of our previous Salamanca Lad finished runner-up at Bahrain yesterday, a £44K race, with almost £15K for second place taking his total prize money to over £47K. Ironically, he was beaten by a Dan and Claire Kübler runner (they used to train him). Not bad for a horse that cost us 12K at the HIT sales, maybe we should have kept him.

I was at Ascot last Sunday (family day on Friday) with a couple of guys i meet often enough, but backing 3 that finished 2nd in chilly, blustery and damp conditions could have been better, but a good afternoon with the guys nevertheless, ending up in a pub in Staines.

On to this afternoon, only 3 meetings although a half decent card at Newcastle. One i thought could win on the card is the Ian Williams trained Beylerbeyi (4.42) winner of the Cesarewitch last year. Hasn't won since in 3 runs (3-2-2) but all over a shorter distance and maybe connections had this race in mind. A decent field and i expect him to be running on strongly late on.

I have a lay selection at the Curragh, but will post separately.

The Dealer

Thank you for the ownership update, good luck with both of yours.

Good luck and have a nice Easter Friday all.
Report Andrew-In-Sweden April 3, 2026 1:45 PM BST
Lay Post

Chasing Paradise - 2.32 Curragh

A 3 year old Churchill filly trianed by Johnny Murtagh in County Kildare.

Once raced as a 2 year old, finishing 2nd in a 8f Leopardstown  maiden, but well beaten (7L) by a AOB filly who had run 4 times previously. Wasn't fancied going off at 25/1. The form is difficult to evaluate as none of the field have run since, but it didn't appear to have much depth.

Up in trip this afternoon (10) and heavy going is expected. I often lay fillies in these typical maidens, there's any amount of improvement in the field that is very lightly raced, and no knowing how they have wintered. Chablis Rock has run well enough on heavy, but there are 4 or 5 other potential winners.

The stable has been slow to start 0/18 in past 14 days.

Could be a risky lay, but the odds are short enough and i'm content with my selection.

Lay @ 2.96

Good luck all.
Report Lampus April 3, 2026 2:00 PM BST
Thank you ANDREW   G/L Happy
Report stewarts rise April 3, 2026 2:22 PM BST
Sorry to read of your loss of 2 siblings in a short space of time Andrew, that's hard to take and as you say grieving takes time. Best wishes you're old enough and strong enough to cope.
  Good luck with your lay, Johnny Murtagh hasn't had any winners as yet but has had 9 placed including seven 3 yos if i've counted right, his 1st winner may be near but hopefully not this one and it's short enough as you say.
Report FOYLESWAR April 3, 2026 2:41 PM BST
condolences andrew ,good luck
Report madhatters April 3, 2026 7:31 PM BST
Sorry to hear your sad news AIS
GL for the future
Report PHS April 3, 2026 9:16 PM BST
Sorry to hear of your sad loss. I hope better times are ahead.
Report timberman April 4, 2026 12:56 PM BST
Thanks for your thought , sympathies to yourself and your family on your recent bereavements. 
Report bristol county caravans April 4, 2026 4:55 PM BST
Jeez AIS, sorry for your loss.
Report jerseyboy April 4, 2026 8:16 PM BST
From one Bristolian to another, so sorry to read about your horrendous last few months..
Report Andrew-In-Sweden April 6, 2026 10:48 AM BST
Good morning Guys,

Many thanks for the condolence posts, as Stewart mentioned it's hard to take in, but i experienced grieving in 2011 and 2012 with my parents, as we do do in life. Travelling on Thursday afternoon for the Cremation service in Buckinghamshire on Friday, but 3 days free thereafter before returning home.

Jerseyboy<

Not exactly Bristolian, Cornish born and bred, but we moved to Bedminster when i was 11 (my dad went to work at BAC Filton as it was then). Fond memories and a lifelong 'Robins' supporter.

The lay post selection didn't go as i envisaged pre-race and drifted in the betting, at least on here (BSP 3.77). Always in the front rank and it looked ominous when the favourite took over 2f out and the first two pulled well clear of the field. Won relatively easy in the end, but what he beat is open to question as the 3rd placer was 18L back and the winning time was almost 18 seconds slow compared to standard. No excuses though and i move on.

Easter Monday and 7 meetings to find a winner, but even allowing for a couple of graded races at Fairyhouse, i didn't see anything that really caught my eye. If i do have a win bet, it would only be Kawaboomga (3.50 Fairyhouse) and not a large stake anyway. Has raced in decent company since  arriving from France and looked to have a future after beating William Munney in a maiden back in January 2025 and ran as well as could have been expected after almost 13 months off the track LTO. Steps up in trip that may suit.

In the Irish Grand National on the same card (5.00) you could pick a handful and still not get the winner, but i thought the James Owen trained One Big Bang could run a decent race at an EW price. Lightly raced over fences and finished 3rd in the National Hunt Cup at the Cheltenham festival last month. A tentative selection at best, but at the odds of 22.0 for the win and 4.0 for 5/TBP is worth a small bet for an interest.

Further afield, the worlds best sprinter, Ka Ying Rising made it 19 wins on the spin at Sha Tin earlier this morning, a tremendous record and is probably unbeatable over 6f and 7f. Backers are not getting rich, he's been 1/20 in 8 of his last 9 races. Even money for his primary target, the Everest in October, a race he won last year, could look value on the day.

Unfortunately, Royal Ascot racegoers will not get the chance to see him this year and it was never really an option anyway, but Australian sprinter Joliestar who won the TJ stakes at Randwick on Saturday is coming over and will probably run in the Jubilee.

Our syndicate 3 year old filly Lady Of Clover was pencilled in for her first on turf later this month, but George Scott feels she needs more experience and is entered at Southwell on Thursday (5.25).

Good luck and have a nice Easter Monday all.

2026 Lay P/L Status

Current Progress 1/2
Running Form WL
Daily Loss -£98
Running P/L -£48


Running form relates to the bet, not the result.

Maybe another selection later.
Report Andrew-In-Sweden April 6, 2026 3:15 PM BST
Lay Post

Brother Boris - 4.35 Fakenham

A 7 year old Jack Hobbs gelding trained by Lucy Wadham in Newmarket.

Didn't show much in 3 hurdle runs and a bumper, but has improved over fences with a record of 2-1-2 from 9 runs, the wins coming in 2 previous race after dropping in the ratings to  88 and 94 respectively from a high of 100. The wins may look good as form figures, but in his penultimate race at this course there was an initial field of 8, subsequently reduced to 5 with 3 x NR's and only 2 finished. He returned to the course to win in another small field of 3, but again only 2 finished and it appeared the runner-up folded tamely after jumping issues.

Made the running in both wins, but will be take on by a couple today including Cloudy Wednesday who is going for a hat-trick after winning this race in 2024 and 2025.

The handicapper wasn't overly impressed, only raising him 2lb for the previous win.

Might prefer going to be on the softer side.

Carries top weight, but this is reduced by the jockey claim.

It appears to be a tightly knit handicap with all four runners in with a chance. Obviously a risky lay, the form horse and an in-form stable, but i think he will not get his own way out in front this afternoon. He's short enough at 5/4 and i don't see him as the winner.

Lay @ 2.54

Good luck all.
Report stewarts rise April 6, 2026 4:46 PM BST
Missed the race, went very short IR, did Boris have a fall late on? All count though Andrew.
Report Andrew-In-Sweden April 6, 2026 5:16 PM BST
Stewart

I didn't see IR betting, but i'm surprised if he went short. As expected, he didn't get his own way up front and raced in last place, never closer, a mistake at the 11th and was pushed along soon after. PU before the 3rd last fence.
Report Andrew-In-Sweden April 7, 2026 1:00 PM BST
Good afternoon Guys,

A successful lay post yesterday, always good to get a shortie beaten although it did drift late on.

A trio of meetings in England, although nothing to get excited about, but the Deauville card in France looks promising with a couple of entries from our shores and a listed race. In the Prix Djeebel (2.40) the likely favourite Samagan from the powerful Francis Graffard stable is going for a 4 timer and may be hard to beat; clearly the form horse winning a couple of group races (3 and 2) last season.

A decent field and a few with untapped potential, one of them is my fancy is Take Me On who made a good impression on the course last season when winning his only race. Drops down a furlong that shouldn't be an issue. In-form trainer and jockey who is one of the best over there, i think he's a win and 3/TBP bet. Liquidity is dire on here for early season French racing at this time of the day, but a best priced 13/2 with the books.

Good luck and have a nice Tuesday all.

2026 Lay P/L Status

Current Progress 2/3
Running Form WLW
Daily Profit £50
Running P/L +£2


Running form relates to the bet, not the result.
Report Lampus April 7, 2026 2:06 PM BST
Thank you ANDREW  G/L  Happy
Report Andrew-In-Sweden April 25, 2026 10:57 AM BST
Lay Post

Jonbon - 2.55 Sandown

A 10 year old Walk In The Park gelding trained by Nicky Henderson.

A multiple graded race winner with an incredible record of never finishing outside the front 2 in 22 runs and a 1-1-2 record in this race. I don't need to depict his form as i normally do with lay posts, we all know it, so i will concentrate on reasoning.

Jonbon beat Thistle Ask at Ascot in the latters last run, but that was over 17f that suited him bringing his stamina into play on soft going over a course where he is unbeaten in 4 runs. Has won since over further, but todays trip is 1.5f less than at Ascot and on summer going, both of which will suit the Skelton horse more.

There's a risk that Solness and Thistle Ask with go off like a couple of proverbial scolded cats, but i don't see this occurring. Sure, the Irish runner will make the running, but i think Harry will sit in 2nd not wanting to force the pace with him.

I wouldn't mind if Solness did build a healthy lead anyway, he  certainly has the ability to win and even Mirabad is not out of it.

Jonbon has been one of my favourite chasers in recent years, but i feel today will be his finale after getting beaten due to trip, going and a sense that he's not the chaser of old.

Lay @ 2.74

Good luck all.
Report tanglefoot April 25, 2026 12:10 PM BST
And here I was thinking it was my best bet today Laugh
Report Andrew-In-Sweden April 25, 2026 12:31 PM BST
Tanglefoot, it's all about opinions and we all get it right and wrong. Good luck.
Report tanglefoot April 25, 2026 12:42 PM BST
Yes it’s about opinions,but my radar has been short circuiting lately Laugh
Report second again April 25, 2026 12:57 PM BST
Jonbon a NR unlucky Andrew I wanted to lay him myselfCry
Report Andrew-In-Sweden April 26, 2026 12:07 PM BST
Good afternoon Guys,

Thank you for the posts.

Jonbon a NR yesterday due to the going and considering how the race panned out, it may well be that morning layers swerved one, albeit not a given of course.

Quite early in the race it appeared that Solness was not travelling with his usual zest and i was surprised he didn't make the running. Thistle Ask on the other hand was jumping well in the lead until the 7th, when he didn't fall as such, but faltered on landing and unseated Harry. The manner in which the horse went down didn't look good and many racing fans must have feared the worse, an incident that highlighted the ups and downs of a sport we all love. On a day that Dan Skelton was crowned champion trainer, passing £5M prize money in the process, it was tainted by a sad loss of one of the most improved chasers in training.

RIP Cry

Prior to yesterday, i hadn't posted for a while due to family bereavements, but to catch up a little our syndicate filly Lady Of Clover made her turf debut (for us) at Yarmouth last Tuesday and ran really well to finish a close 3rd, only beaten just over a length conceding 3lb to the winner. She didn't get a clear run 2f out and had to switch to the outside, but ran on well and was possibly a little unlucky. She will have a short break now.

One of our previous horses Calibos is expected to run over hurdles in a week or so.

On to this afternoon, the typical standard domestically, although there is a listed fillies and mares at Nottinghan and the Sunday Series gives owners at the lower end of the scale a chance to win better than average prize money at Musselburgh. Not much i fancy at any of the 3 meetings, but further afield at Longchamp the first Group 1 of the season, Prix Ganay (3.25) sees a return of last years Arc winner, Daryz who will be short odds to win. Undoubtedly talented, but can be a bit edgy and today may be the time to take him on, somethng i rarely do with this stable. One of my favourite fillies Aventure also runs and it wouldn't surprise me if she won, reversing Arc form where she finished well down the field, but there were excuses. She runs well fresh and this trip is ideal.

Earlier in the day, the same trainer/jockey combination will be short odds to won the G3 stayers race with Asmarani who has beaten his main rival Double Major in his previous 2 runs, but neither was over this CD where the latter excels. It took Double Major a couple of runs to win last season so he should be spot on today and i think he will make all the running.

4 of us are off to Ireland tomorrow morning, the usual team of BF posters and will meet another, Workrider as we often do. Naas in the evening, first day of the Punchestown festival on Tuesday and our favourtie pub to watch PSG v Bayern München in Champions League later. No prizes for guessing who i will be shouting for.

Good luck and have a nice Sunday all.
Report Andrew-In-Sweden May 2, 2026 12:05 PM BST
Good afternoon Guys,

A really enjoyable 3 days in Ireland earlier in the week, Naas on Monday and first day of the Punchestown festival the following day, returning home on Wednesday. A profitable 2 days, albeit my bets were limited, apart from a few for fun (only a few tenners EW) i only backed 3 runners with decent money, 2 winners including a few bob on II Etait Temps making up for not backing him at Cheltenham. Not the most fluent of chasers, but is becoming a serious 2 miler and he could repeat his championship wins in 2027.

I was tempted to take the rest of the week off and stay over there, most regular readers are aware i work in München and it was a bank holiday yesterday, so for the sake of losing a single day in the office on Thursday, i could have had 9 straight days free including opposing weekends. Bad planning, but i could have changed flights, so only myself to blame. Watching Gaelic Warrior on Wednesday would have been worth it alone.

I've often mentioned Ireland and flat/NH racing over there in a positive light on my threads, i love it, the locals are incredibly friendly, pub/restaurant hospitality even surpasses that in Sweden, the food is good and racing is top class. Reading a few threads on here, it appears not everyone agrees with the latter, but i suspect it is those who have never been and generally want to have a pop at Irish racing in general. I kind of understand watching Willie Mullins win most of the graded races can be boring to some, but he has the best horses and has to run them somewhere; the festivals would certainly be poorer, at least in terms of quality, if he didn't run them. The top 6 rated chasers in Ireland are all trained by WPM, but there's a reason, it's why top owners race there. Irrepective of this, for anyone that hasn't been to Ireland, i thoroughly recommend it, racing or otherwise.

The usual team of 4 went over, all posters on here, and met up with Workrider as we often do. We also met Jimnast and his wife (not for the first time) and Manoleeds and his wife for the first time. We saw Simon Nott at Naas, albeit not to talk to, but i'm not sure if he was at Punchestown. AK bets who he often blogs for were. I think Manoleeds is number 14 of BF posters i've met on-course, it's always good to meet up with real racing fans and i keep in contact with several. As for 'celebrity' status, we also had a chat/photo with Johnny Murtagh.

Tuesday evening we went to Molloys pub, a particular favourite of ours; food, drink and to watch the PSG v Bayern München game. A little of my race winnings were lost as i laid PSG £50/£80 GBP to one of the team, but a fantastic game, one of the best i've seen, although at 5-2 i was ready to pay out, but late goals did give me some hope. I also laid him £100/£135 on qualification to the final, so all is not lost. I actually checked to see how much a ticket cost for the return leg next week, cheapest i saw was 825 euros, so it will be a sportsbar for me.

Going back to my previous post on Sunday, i took on 2 shorties, both odds-on and i got close with one, but no cigar. My selection Double Major ran well as he oftens does over CD, made most of the running up to the 200 metre pole, was headed by the fav, but rallied and even went a nose up, but was run out of it close home. In the Prix Ganay, Daryz was different class and visually impressive, although he was certainly aided by an initial crawl pace and poor positioning by jockey Stephane Pasquier on Avenuture who should have finished runner-up, the RP comment says it all. She wouldn't have won, but ran well enough to suggest she will be winning again this season.

As for Daryz, far too early to be lumping on for the Arc, although the rightful favourite, but the stable is also home to a 3 year old Frankel filly, Gilded Prize that in my opinion may be very good.She could be running in the Prix Saint-Alery at Longchamp next Sunday prior to the Prix Diane at Chantilly next month. Currently, odds of 25/1 for the Arc are tempting, she will be a quarter of those if she wins both as i expect.

On to this afternoon, a sunny, warm day, so i'm off to the lake later, but as far as racing goes, i think Desert Storm wins the Guineas (3.35) even allowing for recent stable form and i will be a layer of the likely favourite Gstaad who can be keen on occasion and DS could reverse Dewhurst form over the longer trip. On the same card, i will play Alacarath (2.20) win and 3/TBP (12.5 and 3.7 respectively). Ran well to beat Gamrai easily at Epsom last season and the latter has won since (runs in the 4.45). Ran in snatches at Redcar LTO so can be forgiven and although lightly raced and could be well handicapped.

Gstaad is too high odds for a lay post, as is Asfoora in the Palace House stakes (2.55) but i think both get beat. If i see something else before going out, i will post it.

On Monday, our filly Lady Of Clover is entered at Bath, but we need rain and lots of it (forecast for Sunday) considering the going probably resembles the M4 there at present.

Good luck and have a nice Saturday all.
Report Lampus May 2, 2026 3:51 PM BST
HappyHappy
Report Andrew-In-Sweden May 3, 2026 12:29 PM BST
Good morning Guys,

Lampus, thank you.

A mixed bag of results from my selections yesterday, but it showed the importance of viewing runners in the parade ring before backing them, although most of us know this. My EW play Alacarath (12/1) looked quite burly and will certainly come on for the run, but irrespective of this ran well to finish 5th of 12.

The two suggested lays Gstaad and Asfoora were beaten, as was Desert Storm in the Guineas who i thought could win. Mind you, the winner Bow Echo looked different class and i doubt he will be beaten by a 3 year old colt/gelding over a mile this season. I've even been checking flights to Dublin for the Irish equivalent next month to go over and watch.

Billy Loughnane is now a classic race winner and is Fellowship Racing's favourite jockey, he's won on a couple of our ex-Dan and Claire Kübler horses, a very likeable young man, excellent jockey, always exhuberant in interviews and will surely be champion one day.

On to this afternoon and my take on the Guineas (Newmarket 3.35). If Precise hadn't had the training interruption and was fit, she would have been shorter in the betting and the most likely winner. The Fillies mile over CD last year is good form and i like Evolutionist who was 3rd behind Precise and Venetian Lace. Has had a run in France this season, winning the G3 Prix de La Grotte, a race a couple of my favourite fillies, Blue Rose Cen and Zarigana won before winning the French 1000 Guineas. She beat a couple of decent types in Green Spirit and Narissa then, both these ran at Longchamp last year, 2nd and 3rd respectively behind Diamond Necklace in the Prix Marcel Boussac. Has to improve to get involved, but i will play the win and 4/TBP, currently 23.0 and 3.75 respectively.

A couple of lay suggestions Polar Bear (2.45 Sligo). A couple of years ago had won twice and rated 89, but those days are long gone. In 17 runs since has never run to a higher mark than his previous race and runs off 59 today. Ran off the same rating LTO, finishing 3rd that was at least in improvement. Drawn in 1 that normally is good at Sligo, but tends to be slow away and this course is sharp, resembling one better suited to Greyhounds. Currently, odds of 3.65.

Over at Longchamp i will also be laying Man Of Stars in the G3 Prix d'Hedouville (1.33). I rarely lay runners from this stable, one i tend to follow over there, but in my opinion is not as good over 12f as he is at 10f. Won 5 of his first 6 races over shorter trips, 4 of them at 10f. Has failed in 2 runs over 12f recently. FG has trained more winners than i have, but i feel 12f streches the horse. Not a bad field, but if the Crisford's West Wind Blows gets into a rhythm up forn, could be diffcult to peg back. Currently 3.4 to lay, but liquidity is poor until much closer to race time.

Good luck and have a nice Sunday all.
Report Lampus May 3, 2026 1:34 PM BST
Good Luck ANDREW Happy
Report Lampus May 3, 2026 1:38 PM BST
Easy peasy  Thank  you  ANDREW HappyHappy MOS  lay
Report second again May 3, 2026 1:59 PM BST
A good start to the day Andrew.
Report Lampus May 3, 2026 2:48 PM BST
Thank you ANDREW HappyHappy  P.B  Lay
Report punchestown May 3, 2026 2:55 PM BST
Nice words about Irish Racing Andrew,whatever is lacking in the quality of racing (as it's end of season) is more than made up by the hospitality and quality of food and drink,It's a much more easy going version of Prestbury Park.
Report PHS May 3, 2026 9:41 PM BST
A decent days results there Andrew. Well done.
Report Andrew-In-Sweden May 10, 2026 7:19 AM BST
Good morning Guys,

Greetings from Paris where i'm off to Longchamp later for the Guineas meeting. I arrived yesterday morning only to face chaos at CDG airport due to a lot of building work, including a new express train link to Gare de l'Est that apparently will be completed in early 2027. There were no trains to the city so i had to take a replacement coach to Stadt De France in the North of Paris, then a RER train to the city centre and another to my hotel in La Defense. To say it was chaotic trying to get the coach is an understatement, so many passengers and different queue lines, it was not well organised. A journey that normally takes me about 70 minutes was 140, although a lot of that was at the airport.

4 group races on the card this afternoon, including the 2 Guineas with an early start @ 12.40 CET for whatever reason.

The race i particularly want to see is not the classics per se, but the G2 Prix Saint Alery (13.50) and a potentially decent 3 year old Frankel filly, Gilded Prize who i have mentioned before and follow. Unbeaten in 3 runs, has a good turn of foot and looked impressive in a G3 at Saint Cloud LTO. I think she will win and go on to win the Prix Diane at Chantilly next month although Epsom is under consideration. I can't see her running there, she's a big, imposing filly so would she be suited to the track and it is 320 metres (1.6f) longer.

If there is a consideration, it will be the going that's likely to be soft even allowing for French descriptions. Times at the course supported this on Thursday although it was warm yesterday (24c) but rain is forecast for midday and there's a possibility of a storm later.

In the 2000 Guineas (2.50) Francis Graffard may make it a good day with Rayif who could reverse last year placings (Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere) with the likely favourite Puerto Rico over the longer trip. Well drawn in 1, although may probably not want the going very soft.

I think AOB wins the 1000 Guineas (3.25) with Diamond Necklace, another i've mentioned in glowing terms before and follow. A few of us saw her win the Prix Marcel Boussac last year on Arc weekend, beating a couple of today's rivals cosily. The going will not be an issue for this one and she has a good draw in 3.

I'm not interested in the handicaps, so no bets in these and if i do play in the opener (12.50) it will be EW on the only 3 year old Afjan in the field and consequently receives 6lb. Has run well in a couple of recent runs at Chantilly, has a good draw in 3 that is a significant positive on the sprint course, has won over CD and will not have issues with the going. Generally 10/1 with the books.

Looking forward to the afternoon at what is my favourite flat course anywhere (Ascot a close second) and one i've visited so many times since my first to the Arc in 1980 (showing my age Wink).

Many thanks for the posts all, appreciated as always. A half-decent day last Sunday with both lays getting beaten (9/4f and 17/10 PMU/9/4 ISP) and the only other selection EW Evolutionist runner-up in the 1000 Guineas @ 16/1.

Punchestown

Thanks, it was an honest appraisal of the Irish and racing over there, all of us that go for the festivals over love it. The Friday of the Punchestown festival was the most popular day in the Irish racing calendar with 43,572 racegoers attending Champion Hurdle day, one of the biggest crowds seen at an Irish racecourse in 20 years and i can imagine a decent percentage were from the UK.

I'm off for breakfast and a read of the online RP for a potential lay selection, but i couldn't see one last night, so it's probably unlikely.

Good luck and have a nice Sunday all, i have a feeling mine will be a wet one.
Report timberman May 10, 2026 9:04 AM BST
Enjoy your day Andrew , thanks for your thoughts
Report Lampus May 10, 2026 9:22 AM BST
Thank you ANDREW  Good Luck Happy
Report Lampus May 10, 2026 2:57 PM BST
Rayif  HappyHappy
Report PHS May 10, 2026 4:27 PM BST
WD AndrewHappy
Report Andrew-In-Sweden May 15, 2026 5:23 PM BST
Good evening Guys,

Many thanks for the posts, appreciated as always.

A short summary of my afternoon at Longchamp last Sunday that turned into quite a wet one, albeit more or less as expected.

A nice afternoon and my bets were restricted to those i posted on the morning, ending up with a decent profit on the day that started off well with Afjan (15/2) in the opening sprint. I only backed the place (PMU paid 1.9) as the short priced Aga Khan favourite was always going to be difficult to beat, and so it turned out with Mickael Barzalona coming from almost last to first. Afjan ran well and actually took the lead, but it was clear the favourite was travelling strongly and looked the likely winner from some way out.

Next up was one i was particularly interested in, the unbeaten filly Gilded Prize, but she was poor finishing 5th of 6. Only beaten 4L, but i thought she was in trouble off the final bend. I can't imagine that was her true running, but if that's how good she is, then it's doubtful she will win the Prix Diane next month. Was it the going ? Who knows, and it's too early to write her off of course.

I recovered losses and was back in front with the 2000 Guineas winner Rayif (6.5 on the PMU) who reversed form with the odds-on favourite Puerto Rico. 

Diamond Necklace was icing on the cake in the 1000 guineas who won impressively with a nice turn of foot. She remains unbeaten and could be difficult to beat at Chantilly next month. Heavily backed before the off, she was 2.2 when i placed my bet, yet finished at 1.80 (PMU). Thankfully, i didn't have to sit through a stewards enquiry for this race, as last year.

I left after the 1000, I had done with betting anyway and the rain was still hard enough to spoil the music festival in the gardens. Not a particularly large crowd, although the weather must have played a part. 25 euros entry, no issue with food and drink queues or placing a bet.

More travelling for me this weekend, off to Newbury tomorrow and meeting up with one of the Fellowship Racing team who i know well, and also Laurie Willimson (Brigust1 on here) of Brigadier Gerard fame who I've met before a few times. Looking forward to it, i've been to Newbury quite a few times over h years, but i don't remember going for a Lockinge.  

I don't have any really strong fancies in the 4 pattern racees, but G1 winner Kalpana in the opener (13.25) looks good on paper if fit and will get  a tow into the race from West Wind Blows. 

The Lockinge (14.35) is a decent field and looks more open than it often is. My fancy is an EW play on More Thunder from an in-form stable who doesn't have much to find with better fancied rivals on ratings. Forget his last run in France during Arc weekend, he was slowly away, but not beaten far conceding weight. Ideally, he wants a fast pace so hopefully Mississippi River is there to do same for Lion In Winter. Currently 9 on here and I will also have a small stake save on the French runner Sahlan at slightly higher odds.

Looking further ahead, i backed Constitution River @ 16/1 for Epsom AP recently, but it appears he could be heading for France, that was always a risk due to the shorter trip at Chantilly, but whatever race he goes for, he is one to follow. 

Our syndicate filly Lady of Clover will have an entry at Windsor in June, a 0-55 over 8f. I saw Calibos win there last year, so if you will probably go. A nice little course, especially on a warm summer evening.

I have a lay selection at Hamilton and will post later.

Good luck and have a nice Friday all.
Report Andrew-In-Sweden May 15, 2026 5:26 PM BST
Lay Post

Gaelic Approach - 18.40 Hamilton

A 3 year-old Masar gelding trained by Charlie Johnston in Middleham, Yorkshire.

A small field of 3, but only 7lb separates them on BHA ratings. More exposed than his 2 rivals, up in class and trip although it's a stiff finish at Hamilton.

His main rival Harriet Quimby travels up from Newmarket and had the better form as a 2 year-old. Has more scope for improvement than the possible favourite is the better horse for me. Has to concede 3lb and 7lb, but i think he can.

The other runner, My Ballyquinn is certainly not out of it even though he's a maiden, but ran well at Thirsk in his penultimate run. Both are making their handicap debut (Gaelic Approach has run in a couple) and Harriet Quimby could be well in off a debut handicap mark of 80.

Lay @ 2.40 (average after laying a tad lower).

Good luck all
Report PHS May 15, 2026 11:11 PM BST
WD AndrewHappy Brave man selecting in a 3 horse race.
Report Early Morning Riser May 16, 2026 10:19 AM BST
Nice lay bet that Andrew, well done again.
Report PHS May 16, 2026 11:36 AM BST
Lampus must've missed itMischief
Report Lampus May 16, 2026 12:09 PM BST
Sadly I did CryCry
Report Andrew-In-Sweden May 24, 2026 9:45 AM BST
Good morning Guys,

Many thanks for the posts, appreciated as always. The lay selection was beaten, albeit not by one i thought would win, but i did mention he wasn't out of it by any means.

A summary of my Newbury trip last Saturday. A nice afternoon, although train delays resulted in arriving about 10 minutes before the opener that i particularly wanted to watch, but i managed to get to the course in time. My bets were always going to be those posted here the day before, so i backed Kalpana. She ran well to make her challenge between runners and initially skip clear, but tired late on due to lack of a run, although held on from a fitter rival.

This got me off to a winning start, or so i thought. For the first time in decades of betting, i couldn't find my betting slip, i searched my clothing, the ground around me, retraced my steps etc, so i went back to the bookmaker. She advised me to contact the ring inspector, i did and she requested to see all the bets on the race from the bookmaker. Mine was 110/100, there were only 4 such bets and all had been paid, so obviously someone had found the ticket, but sadly some punters are not so honest.

I often take photos of my bets, the decent ones at least, to avoid any risk of arguments (never occured yet) but on this occasion the race had just started when i took my place in the stand to watch it. It was sods law, at least i had a chance of claiming if i had got to the bookmaker before the other person, but i had wasted time looking for it.

My next bet at least recovered most of the stake i had lost, an EW on More Thunder who ran on strongly to finish runner-up, but was never going to catch the Appleby winner. A couple of small bets on Sintra and Blue RC went down, although i thought Hollie was going to win on the first one when she took it up. As for Blue RC, i thinks he's just entering the final furlong now. Wink

I backed Man City at HT (10/11) to win in 90 minutes that put me in front a little, but i had a stroke of luck in the last race. My mate (Fellowship Racing) wanted to stay, but i wasn't really interested. i looked at the field, albeit not in detail, didn't fancy anything, but saw Euston Hall had improved for each of 3 runs, winning a maiden and might be well handicapped on debut. I only had a tenner win, more in hope than confidence and a runner to watch, but he made most of the running and won.

We met Laurie Williamson (Brigust1 on here) i hadn't seen him for a while so it was good to catch up, although he contributes to my WhatsApp group.

I'm eagerly waiting for the Prix Du Jockey Club declarations at Chantilly (run next Sunday) in particular Constitution River, as mentioned before, a horse i followed last year and have backed AP at 16/1 for Epsom (win only). More likely to run in France though due to the shorter trip, but it's not a given just yet. His win at Chester was franked by Golden Story at Goodwood yesterday who was 9.75L back in 3rd then. In my eyes, he will win either race so i may go wherever he runs. Our syndicate filly, Lady Of Clover will be entered for Windsor on the following Monday evening from Epsom, i will not want to miss that.

On to today, good cards at the Curragh and Longchamp and AOB could have another decent haul of winners, I think True Love wins the 1000 Guineas (16.30) but i've only backed the 2/TBP. I will also be backing another of his shorties to win Great Barrier Reef (14.15). Impressive on his only run to date on soft going, he recorded the quickest final furlong sectional on the card that day; if he wins will almost certainly become favourite for the Coventry stakes at RA.

At Longchamp, one of my favourite fillies Aventure runs in the G2 Prix Corrida and has the short priced favourite Sunly to beat, trained by the best over there in Francis Graffard and a trainer i follow a lot. Aventure should have been 2nd behind Daryz LTO, in my opinion it was a poor ride by Stefan Pasquier, but Maxime Guyon is back on board this afternoon and i will have a small win.

As for a lay selection, i think Jancis (15.20 Curragh) is one, even though i have backed her a few times in the past. Not many got into the race at Newmarket LTO that was over a furlong further and she was only 5th in this last year. Currently just outside my odds limit for a dedicated lay post, but i will watch the odds and look at other races. I doubt i will be watching much racing thos afternon anyway due to the summer weather.

Good luck and have a nice Sunday all.
Report Andrew-In-Sweden May 24, 2026 9:50 AM BST
2026 Lay P/L Status

Current Progress 3/4
Running Form WLWW
Daily Profit £50
Running P/L +£52


Running form relates to the bet, not the result.
Report gazza66 May 24, 2026 10:47 AM BST
Hi AIS, thanks for your update and thoughts as always. May I ask is Lady of Clover your only horse in training and is she still scheduled to run at Windsor in June, I did notice you took her out of the Bath race.
Report Lampus May 24, 2026 11:19 AM BST
Thank you ANDREW Happy
Report Lampus May 24, 2026 2:58 PM BST
Aventure HappyHappy
Report gazza66 May 24, 2026 3:03 PM BST

May 24, 2026 -- 2:58PM, Lampus wrote:


Aventure


And Great Barrier Reef HappyHappyHappy

Report Lampus May 24, 2026 3:25 PM BST
Thank  you ANDREW   Jancis  Lay HappyHappyHappy
Report Andrew-In-Sweden May 24, 2026 7:25 PM BST
Good evening Guys,

Many thanks for the posts, much appreciated.

A decent afternoon betting wise with all 4 selections paying out, but my loudest cheer was for the well backed Aventure, one of my favourite fillies and one who never gets the media attention she deserves; always runs a solid race with exception of last years Arc where she was poorly drawn. The form line will show she only won by 3/4L, but the reality is she coasted home with Maxine nonchalantly looking over his shoulder twice after going clear in the final 200 metres, almost daring the field to catch up, and easing close home. She won the race last year when it was run at Saint Cloud, she's a G1 winner (Prix Vermeille) runner-up in an Arc and only twice finished out of the first 3. I would love to see her win an Arc, but this is doubtful, in fact, i feel 10f and 11f are her optimal trips.

Great Barrier Reef missed the break and was Green, but still looked good winning. He's probably the best 2 year old colt seen to date. Short odds, but i backed at slightly better.

True Love was 2nd in the Guineas, but as mentioned i only backed the 2/TBP anyway. I didn't want to back Precise, but thought she would get much closer to TL this time and would the draw play a part as they were on opposite sides.

As for the lay selection Jancis (2/1 jf) a case of deja vu, 5th in the race last year, same today. Happy days.

Gazza66,

Correct, Lady Of Clover is my only runner at present. Those in the past were Salamanca Lad and Calibos (both with Dan and Claire Kübler) and Agouti Bear in Ireland with Danny Murphy, but now retired for breeding. Salamanca Lad runs in Bahrain and Calibos has started a hurdling career with Jo Davis.

Lady Of Clover has been withdrawn from a few races recently, all down to firm going. She may be entered at Windsor on Monday June 8th in the finale (20.39 unless the race time is moved) but again will be ground dependant and looking at the previous 4 course fixtures in May, all were on G/F that is not ideal. Good would be OK, but George Scott will let us know in good time. I will be going, even if LoC doesn't run, i like Windsor, albeit not so much from a betting perspective.

Have a nice Sunday evening all.
Report PHS May 30, 2026 9:09 AM BST
ttt

Not the best Saturday's racing?
Report Andrew-In-Sweden May 30, 2026 2:13 PM BST
Afternoon PHS

Thanks.

A dire afternoon of racing with only a few i would even be remotely interested in backing, but to date only a single play and that was in the Swedish Allsvenkan football league, Sirius to beat AIK away (backed at 2.14). Just kicked off so i hope they don't score whilst i'm typing as it could look like aftertiming Wink

The only runners i thought had some sort of chance of winning was Matteo (Beverley 2.48) although the price has gone, and Lucky Sevens (Lingfield 17.42).

Maybe more later, roll on Chantilly tomorrow.

Good luck and have a nice Saturday all.
Report PHS May 30, 2026 3:04 PM BST
WD Andrew.
Report Early Morning Riser May 30, 2026 5:02 PM BST
On a roll Andrew.
Report Andrew-In-Sweden May 31, 2026 8:51 AM BST
Good morning Guys,

PHS/EMR thank you. I'm having a good run in recent weeks, but we all have them at times; hopefully it continues, but it's poor racing domestically this afternoon.

3 selections yesterday, Sirius won 3-0 away to AIK (Allsvenskan league) and although easy to say after the event, i was surprised they were odds against (backed @ 2.14). I don't play Swedish football teams that often and only did this time as i'm home this weekend and thought the odds were too big, even posting them on my WhatsApp group Friday, so a lucky break.

AIK (based in Stockholm) are generally not a bad side often qualifying for the minor European leagues and have been champions in the past, but this season they are poor, currently in 11th place (of 16) whereas Sirius can't stop winning with a 9-1-0 record so far and well clear at the top. Scottish posters may know of Robbie Ure (ex-Rangers) who plays for them and is one of the leading scorers in the league.

Matteo made most of the running at Beverley to beat the well overpriced 50/1 runner Ronson @ 11/10f albeit subject to a R4.

Lucky Stevens (11/4) finished 5th, no excuses, simply not good enough.

I looked through this afternoons domestic racecards last night, but there wasn't anything that jumped off the page, but as often French racing is a savior with the Prix du Jockey Club (Derby) card including 5 group races and 2 listed class. Regular readers of my threads know i follow the French racing scene a lot and Longchamp is not only my favourite course, but one i've attended more than any other anywhere. I saw Enable win at Chantilly, but that was my only time there, a nice course in a beautiful setting.

I was at Longchamp for the Guineas meeting when Afjan finished runner-up @ 15/2 (posted on here) last month behind the rejuventated Rayevka who looks a sprinter to follow and is entered for the Kings Charles III stakes on the opening day at RA. The short priced Aga Khan favourite was always going to be difficult to beat that day, and so it turned out with Mickael Barzalona coming from almost last to first with a late run. Afjan dwelt a little, but ran well and actually took the lead appoaching the 200 metre pole, but the favourite was travelling strongly and looked the likely winner from some way out. No Aga Khan hot-pot opposing in the G3 sprint (14.53) today, although Francis Graffard has a runner in Moojeed, but Afjan has the likely favourite Sajir with Oisin on board to beat; i think Afjan will win. Currently 15/8 with the books.

I wanted Constitution River to run at Epsom as i had an AP bet (16/1) but it wasn't a surprise when AOB decided on Chantilly and it's probably the correct decision. If he had been drawn in the lower half, i was even thinking to go there, i really like the horse, but 15 is a negative, although not insurmountable by any means.

French races are rarely run at a strong pace from the onset, turning into a sprint finish, although there are the occasional exceptions of course. It's a flat track, more galloping with a straight of well over 200 metres before start of the sweeping bend and a 600 metre run-in with a slight rise.

The trip of 2100 metres (10.5f) is not an issue, nor is the going currently 3.3 (G/S) but we all know that France Galop descriptions are farcical compared to ours at times. Tactics will have been discussed of course and could even change directly after the start, but i doubt Ryan with do a 'Frankie' on Golden Horn (aka the Arc). AOB has 3 entered, one of whom has a winning chance, but the other could be used to assist Ryan tucking in closer to the inside, although not on the rail as he did with Camillo Pissaro last year. Ace Impact came from almost last postion down the middle in 2023, although he was drawn in 8.

Another factor in the equation is Constitution River has always raced up with the pace and with exception of his debut at Newmarket (12) in small fields.

I've been a follower of him since his debut at Newmarket last year, i think he could turn out to be very good, but he will need to be out of stall 15. Having said that i'm of the opinion that the really good ones can win from adverse draws. If he's in contention off the bend i think he will win cosily, it's not a particularly strong field although the Francis Graffard trained Daryzan looked good when winning his only race, albeit a maiden at Saint Cloud.

I feel the French runners are the main rivals opposed to the others, including the unbeaten German runner Gostam. I was at Müchen/Riem racecourse when he won last month, i went specifically to back it based on his previous win at Cologne. Won well enough, maybe a little more cosily than it looked, but he was 7/10f and it wasn't a particulary strong field. Connections said post-race they were going to be more 'adventerous`with him and we have seen German runners do well at Longchamp before, but i can't see him winning, although it wouldn't be a complete shock.

We all have occasions when we feel a particular horse we like and think could be very good, so we back accordingly. Sometimes we are right, sometimes wrong, that's what makes the game so interesting; this afternoon is one such occasion for me.

Moving on, my syndicate filly Lady Of Clover is entered at Wolverhampton on Tuesday (20.00) a classifed stakes over 10.5f. The original plan was for a handicap at Windsor on Monday 8th June, but this is still on the cards if she comes out of her race OK. I will be going to Windsor (not Wolverhampton) irrespective of whether she runs there or not.

Good luck and have a nice Sunday all.
Report Andrew-In-Sweden May 31, 2026 9:11 AM BST
a classifed stakes over 8.5f.
Report Early Morning Riser May 31, 2026 11:44 AM BST
Nice write up Andrew.
Report Lampus May 31, 2026 2:28 PM BST
Thank you ANDREW g/l  Happy
Report Lampus May 31, 2026 3:51 PM BST
HappyHappy
Report Andrew-In-Sweden May 31, 2026 3:53 PM BST
Draw problem, what problem WinkLove
Report PHS May 31, 2026 11:27 PM BST
WD with CR AndrewCool
Report PHS May 31, 2026 11:30 PM BST
Moving on, my syndicate filly Lady Of Clover is entered at Wolverhampton on Tuesday (20.00) a classifed stakes over 10.5f. The original plan was for a handicap at Windsor on Monday 8th June, but this is still on the cards if she comes out of her race OK. I will be going to Windsor (not Wolverhampton) irrespective of whether she runs there or not.

19:30
Report Andrew-In-Sweden June 2, 2026 6:01 PM BST
Good Evening Guys,

PHS, Lampus and EMR many thanks for the posts, appreciated. PHS, maybe BHA moved the race time, but based on previous posts, i suspect there's a chance it was me and lack of concentration Wink.

A couple of selections on Sunday, both to win at Chantilly although the first one was going against a 30/100f, at least on the PMU. The selection Afjan (7/2) an an odd race, broke well enough although never dominated, dropped back to last, ran on late, but was short of room when trying to make resemblance of a challenge and was eased. I doubt it made any difference to the result, the winner was the class horse in the field, hence the odds and won well to be fair. 

I had been looking forward to watching Constitution River ever since AOB declared him for Chantilly, although i wanted him at Epsom of course, and any thoughts of lumping on were subsequently dampened by an adverse draw in 15. I don't need to reiterate i follow him and think he's really good, so a draw in the lower half would have really tempted me to go to Chantilly with a few quid in my pocket. I gave it a lot of thought, the stats were against him, but as i mentioned, not insurmountable by any means and contrary to what was being said, it had been done before, in fact several have won the race from double figure draws, just not recently. This was almost a case of deja vu with Golden Horn who won the Arc from 14 with an inspired ride by Frankie.

The Prix du Jockey Club tracking report for the race reveals that Montreal led from almost pillar to post, only dropping to 3rd in the final 200 metres (actually did well to stay there). Hawk Mountain was in 2nd place throughout. Constitution River was wide in 7th after 200 metres, 5th after 400, 3rd after 600 and stayed there until taking the lead in the final 200 metres. The envisaged pacemaker Hankelow was in 3rd up to 400 metres, then dropped back to 4th where he remained until 600 metres from home, gradually fading to finish 13th. The 2 Aga Kan runners were generally at the rear until making progress in the straight to finish 6th and 7th.

Whatever you think of the race per se, it was a masterstroke tactic, well executed, a good ride from Ryan and with the AOB outsider controlling the early steady pace giving time for CR to slowly make progress from out wide before moving in to join the field. Soumillon played his part on Hawk Mountain, although he was always going to keep up with the pace anyway, he had made all to win his previous 4 races, so no shock there. The winning time 2.18 seconds fast (over 10L) compared to standard and the only one under the latter. The 3rd fastest time in history of the race and as reported in the RP he covered more ground than the majority (4 metres in the case of Montreal) that was obvious anyway.

When i saw CR in 3rd place before the start of the sweeping bend, my confidence had grown. He doesn't have the immediate turn of foot aka Frankel, but he stays on strongly, and i always thought he would pick up the front couple. He won cosily, going away.

Of course, the media brought out all the superlatives post-race, much of them warranted, but he's not a superstar, at least not yet. As mentioned, i didn't think the field was so strong, although a few of them will improve later, and harder tasks await him. The Eclipse has been mentioned, it's the obvious race, but it wouldn't surprise me if he didn't run, he had a hard race and it could be a very good field. Having said that, i'm not suggesting he won't win, although i wouldn't be rushing into lump on at 5/2 just yet.

My opinion of CR hasn't changed, in fact the win has reinforced it, i think he will end up as AOB's best 3 year-old and possibly the best in Europe, albeit it's too early to suggest the latter as Francis Graffard has a few decent ones, colts and fillies.

I won a nice few quid and the BF/BSP was better than expected, but the result was also welcomed by the guys i go racing with, 3 other posters on here and a few in Fellowship Racing.

6 of us are going to Longchamp for the Arc that has become a bit of a pilgrimage in recent years so we decided to have a fun betting exercise to see if we could win and supplement food and drink expenses. We had a 24-week span starting in April, so we broke it down into weekly rounds with a £60 bet on any sport, backing or laying (it can be 2 x £30). The process gets repeated over the forthcoming weeks, so the 6 of us make 4 bets in total during the 24 sweek period. The stake and any winnings go into the kitty. To date, nobody has lost the full stake, although i think 3 may have lost one bet and recovered with the other. It was my turn last week, so i went all in on Constitution River, happy days. I'm curious how we end up at end of September, it's not a competition; the goal is to make a profit each week, although i doubt that will occur. Week 9 started yesterday so a long way to go, but a lot of fun.

AOB was not the only trainer to raid Europe and return with Euros, Charlie Johnston won the G2 German 1000 at Dusseldorf with Timeforshowcasing, but consider the difference in winning prize money £60,869 v £297,727 at Newmarket, although it's G1 of course.

Our filly, Lady Of Clover runs at Wolverhampton (19.30) this evening and the field doesn't look strong by any means (in context of the race type) there's a lot of dead wood in it, but we are running in this classified stakes class for a reason. Prize money for the bread and butter racing is poor compared to France and Ireland, but £4,710 tonight is more than many such races.

I think the backing for Nightmare in our race (conceding 12 lb to us) is a bit overdone and i will certainly be laying this one. A 16 race maiden, 4 runs at Wolverhampton with the best a 4th place and was last of 11 there last time. In 11 runs since being given a rating, has never run to a mark higher than his previous race. Currently 5/2 with the books, but close to 3.9 om here.

One of our ex-runners, Calibos (then with Dan and Claire Kübler) is running at Uttoxeter on Thursday.

Good luck and have a nice Tuesday all.
Report Lampus June 2, 2026 6:21 PM BST
Thank you   ANDREW   G/L
Report Lampus June 2, 2026 7:36 PM BST
THANK YOU ANDREW HappyHappy
Report Kalaglow June 2, 2026 7:36 PM BST
Well done Andrew & thank you
Report Andrew-In-Sweden June 2, 2026 7:40 PM BST
Lady Of Clover wins for us LoveLoveLove
Report N-east Correspondent June 2, 2026 7:47 PM BST
wd Andrew did it nicely Cool Happy
Report second again June 3, 2026 6:33 AM BST
Glad that she won for you Andrew.Cool
Report Brian June 3, 2026 8:34 AM BST
Congratulations Andrew.
Report FOYLESWAR June 3, 2026 8:45 AM BST
congrats on lady of clover .............. celebrate and enjoy !
Report FOYLESWAR June 3, 2026 8:45 AM BST
congrats on lady of clover .............. celebrate and enjoy !
Report PHS June 3, 2026 9:39 AM BST
Congrats Andrew. As you say, winner's prize money generous for a Classified race.
Report GEORGE.B June 3, 2026 12:13 PM BST
Congratulations Andrew / Fellowship Racing

At this rate it won't be long before you have a reputation for being shrewd at the sales like the Horse Watchers Wink
Report penzance June 3, 2026 1:29 PM BST
If you own a rnr in any grade of race & it wins no doubt it feels good.
wd
   GL.
Report Andrew-In-Sweden June 3, 2026 7:23 PM BST
Good evening Guys,

Many thanks for the kind posts, always appreciated.

I think it was George B who used to say ‘a pleasing thread’ (something like that) or maybe it was Delta (we never hear from him these days). Another profitable post yesterday with the lay of the 2/1f Nightmare at Wolverhampton in our race (i can’t really claim Lady Of Clover as a win bet selection) but what a night for Fellowship Racing, even if none of us were actually there for varying reasons. It was odd watching the parade ring before the race and not seeing any owner representation apart from the trainer and jockey.

The race went more or less as planned earlier, George always sends us a video or audio in the morning, and someone sends us the post-race jockey interviews later.


She was a bit keen early, but always prominent at a moderate pace and got a nice run on the rail off the final bend, hung to her right once she took the lead, but she’s still a bit green and learning her job. She’s relatively lightly raced, 7 runs, 6 of them for us since February and now she’s finally got her head in front could progress. It wasn’t a strong field for the class by any means, but she’s a trier that’s for sure and Liam said she stayed on strongly and would be OK stepping up another furlong.

The Fellowship Racing philosophy is to buy a horse at the Newmarket HIT sales in October from a pre-selected short list of potential buys that could improve with a step up in trip. One of the reasons for choosing Dan and Claire Kübler (previous runners) and George Scott is they share our interest in ‘cadence’ and ‘stride length’ as well as speed figures, Simon Rowlands (ex-Timeform) often posts related articles on the ATR site. The recent data (including last night) supports Liam's comment about stepping up another furlong would not be an issue. Cadence and stride patterns are not set in stone exactly, and not always confirmation of what is expected, but they have certainly worked for us. Salamanca Lad ran up a hat-trick after stepping up in trip (and nearly won a 4th) Calibos also won over 10f and now Lady Of Clover over 8.5f, so we have certainly been lucky as owners.

I also had Agouti Bear in Ireland (Kildare Racing) she also won and ran well on debut at the Curragh. Many owners never get to win a race at all, i’ve won 6 now, the same as Fellowship Racing if you include Sense Of Security, their first one that i wasn’t involved with).

She’s entered up at Leicester, Yarmouth and Windsor (sorry Royal Windsor) in the forthcoming week and i hope she runs at the latter on Monday. If so, i will be going (i may go even if she doesn’t run) as i will be staying at a Heathrow airport hotel, very convenient as it’s almost a hop, skip and jump away. I like Windsor anyway, although it’s not a course i would be betting too heavy at. Certainly a travelling month as i want to go to Longchamp next weekend for the Prix Diane meeting, although no flight ticket booked yet. It looks a decent card, 3 group races, 4 if you include the Arab Derby and a listed class.

I should have posted Nightmare as a lay post yesterday, but was more interested in the race proceedings. A potential lay this evening is Dreams Ka (19.30 Warwick) raised 12lb and up in class. Always a risk laying one of Dans and he has a short priced favourite in 4 of the 6 races where he has a runner. Looks quite a close and tricky handicap.

George, not in their class yet, but working on it WinkExcitedLaugh

Penzance, exactly, we may only be winning low class races, but when we do, the feeling is no different that John Magnier feels winning the Derby.

Good luck and have a nice evening all.
Report Early Morning Riser June 3, 2026 8:10 PM BST
Well done with your horse Andrew and your lay today.
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