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25 Jan 26
10:57
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Date Joined:
03 Feb 11
So in the week I backed Poniros at 66-1 for the Champion Hurdle each way, here's why, firstly I thoroughly expected Sir Gino to walk all over The New Lion in yesterday's race and following that we would see the New Lion reroute to Aintree and the two Mares Brighterdaysahead and Lossiemouth run away to the mares race and with Constitution Hill not being a definite you suddenly find yourself with Golden Ace being the challenger to Sir Gino, if all that came about what a poor race it would have been with Sir Gino a long odds on chance. Poniros was entered for the race on Saturday but they decided not to run and he may now turn up in the Irish Champion next week. Then that cunning plan went out of the window with the injury to Sir Gino which means everyone and his dog may now run. Still, don't underestimate Poniros, his only two hurdle run's include the Triumph first time out and runner up at Punchestown, I cannot remember a horse winning the Triumph first time out ever, let alone backing it up in another grade one next time out, still has tonnes of potential and in what now looks a poor race with no superstar he surely has an each way squeak, even allowing for Lossiemouth probably now winning the race. Unlike Grey Dawning on the same day The New Lion was forced to pull out all the stops to beat rivals rated 151 and 138 by a couple of lengths and whilst he is sure to improve for the run he rates terrible value to win even this Champion Hurdle as for me I am not sure he is quick enough but more importantly there is nothing in the form book to put him anywhere near favourite as in my opinion he is yet to beat anything of note. Having said all of that there is one proviso, if Constitution Hill runs and jumps and is anywhere near his best he wins as far as he wants, that at this moment does seem a big if.
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5yos have not got the best record but it looks a weak champion hurdle ,punchestown might have come to soon but still a very good run for one with limited hurdles exp .
I think Golden Ace with her likeness for the course, her good fortune and the very weak field. But, she and her connections deserve it most of all.
Good luck. I haven't come to the same conclusion, but it is a measured and sensible post. Unfortunately, if want a response this is the last place for sensible posts. If all you want to do is have a pop at someone it's top class. The forum is not dying, it is dead. The reasons are obvious.
I think you are right about The New Lion. He has always been too short. His novice form has now been exposed, and without the hill he might not even have won yesterday. As for Poniros, I would just ask the question as to what he has been doing since June last year. If the Champion Hurdle is the aim, it's a very limited, and unusual preparation, if indeed something hasn't gone wrong. I could never have a peak Constitution Hill even close to the golden era, and I don't see him being a factor.
I think you are right about The New Lion. He has always been too short. His novice form has now been exposed, and without the hill he might not even have won yesterday. As for Poniros, I would just ask the question as to what he has been doing since June last year. If the Champion Hurdle is the aim, it's a very limited, and unusual preparation, if indeed something hasn't gone wrong. I could never have a peak Constitution Hill even close to the golden era, and I don't see him being a factor.
An excellent reply, to be fair I have not used this forum for such a long time and people can post what they wish, my posts are just opinions, might be right might be wrong I dont spend to much time worrying, as for Poniros, he was entered on Saturday against Sir Gino but never ran and he is entered in the Irish Champion next week so all seems ok, lets not forget he won the Triumph in his first ever run over hurdles so the absence does not worry me. One final thing, he is 66-1 so I am tilting at Windmills and Sir Gino kind of foiled my plan by getting injured, but nonetheless a real dark horse in a wide open year. Thank you again for your considered reply.
Irish champion hurdle are early entries conformation to take place on Tuesday no doubt Willie will leave everyone in
Have you got off the Alexei train then Drum? I've now had my first Ante post bet for Cheltenham on him. My angle into the race is that it was his 4th run in quite a short space of time at Ascot and the stable form was a little cold at the time. The 2 he had to give weight to haven't done the form any harm, admittedly its only Handicap form but its rock solid. I also think he needs championship pace gallop (to negate how keen he can race at times) and to come with one late run at them.
Manuel nothing wrong with windmill tilting. These days in racing the plainly obvious ones rarely win.
The absence on the track of Poniros would not worry me.
Mullins has done this for a few seasons now with his four year olds, waiting for the turn of the year to bring them out.
Mullins has done this for a few seasons now with his four year olds, waiting for the turn of the year to bring them out.
Seems like most have written off the New Lion based on yesterday. Imo it proved nothing in terms of the CH being too short for him which seems to be the general consensus. The race was nearly 14 seconds slower than the Triumph trial which should tell you that he won despite the way the race was run, he will be a different proposition in a true run CH.
If Constitution turns up he may struggle if CH stays on his feet, bar that though there does not seem any other danger, even the mares getting 7lb would not worry me.
If Constitution turns up he may struggle if CH stays on his feet, bar that though there does not seem any other danger, even the mares getting 7lb would not worry me.
Not at all, although he is a slightly bigger price than when I backed him in November. I also backed Golden Ace at much bigger than she is now. As you may be aware I was always of the opinion that Alexei should have avoided Ascot and gone Kingwell. I think that is now the target? Obviously, I am hoping he is a bit better than the Ascot run, albeit it was a solid handicap. Turning for home at Ascot, it looked a case of how far, but he didn't see it out. Was that the weight, or was he not quite 100%? The stable made a very good start, but have struggled since. Cheltenham might also suit him better. Assuming he is well, I wouldn't have him any bigger than 25/1. It's crazy they have Ballyburn at the same price. Pretending he was ever a two-miler has finished him, and this is just a waste of an entry fee.
Whippin, that's not a horse for me as while progressive I am not sure he is progressive enough, however I consider that an excellent selection for this race and again your price is massive and like my selection Poniros he could possibly run into a place, so whilst not for me I totally get why you would pick him out, two things, off his current rating of 148 he could easily get a decent weight in the County Hurdle and could be more likely to go there and perhaps take in the Betfair Hurdle beforehand, just my opinions but totally get it.
Fair enough OP. I couldn't have yours to be honest. The Triumph hurdle fell apart and he simply picked up the pieces. He was put in his place by Lumbala next time out and that Horse was always a chasing type. Ran a shocker on the Flat at Royal Ascot and hasn't been seen since. You've at least got the right Trainer on your side though. I'd be very disappointed if Alexei didn't finish in front of Poniros if they both line up for the race. Of course he'd still need more to win, but it's certainly looking like bang average CH.
We're just taking a swing at a few at a price and TNL wouldn't make much appeal to me at the current prices, Cag
We're just taking a swing at a few at a price and TNL wouldn't make much appeal to me at the current prices, Cag
Thats fair enough whippin, not going to be much of a renewal and every chance a big price now could turn up and place or even win. Rarely play ap these days and will have a bigger bet on the day on TNL and CH if they line up.
Everyone's scrambling around and with the market looking weak and with a few stayers heading it and with CH looking decidedly iffy and accepting that it is not Hendo's way will the call come from his supporters for OPS to be supplemented?
What price would you back him at if he ran?
What price would you back him at if he ran?
I hope CH bolts up on his Flat debut and he's given a flat Campaign. Lossie has to turn up for the race now, surley? So I think you'll still be able to back TNL on the day at a fair price, Cag
I would say that's a Million for him to run, Duffy. Just not Hendo's MO
I would say that's a Million for him to run, Duffy. Just not Hendo's MO
Hey Rico Dangleflaps missed your reply so sorry for ages replying, however very impressed with your knowledge of crap television
Have to say I am really pleased with my Champion Hurdle horse Poniros, needed the run badly and also on very heavy ground its not ideal, he did however run on into third and now can be prepped all being well for a shot at the big one, looks like many others have taken note as the 66-1 is now 20-1 tops, its just upto the master now to prepare him for day one at the festival, will come on tonnes for that run that's for sure, best wishes.
Good write up Manuel and you certainly have a value bet. Personally the best I can see him getting is 3rd. 5 year olds and all that. But I'm sure you would be happy with a place. The market is unfathomable even now.
Everything for me is about value, you get the best odds and eventually you end up in profit, its the only way to give yourself a chance against the bookies, the best price is essential, I would settle for a place for sure, that said at 20-1 I would not touch him but 66-1 was so appealing, just needs to get to the race now, by the way this looks so poor there is actually a chance he might go close, you never know. Tom Segal picked out Golden Ace at 20-1 each way and I have no quarrel with that as his reasoning was similar to mine in terms of value I just picked a bigger priced horse, if your on her at 20-1 then great bet each way, at her price now you would need your head examining if you backed her
You have great value if he runs. Initial reaction from connections he may give it a miss. But if Lossie & Constitution are absent would be foolish to give it a miss in what would be a poor renewal.
Have had around 20 odd bets on here in rubbish amounts , back and lay on Casheldale Lad and Wilful , purely based on value in a poor race . Prices have ranged from 75 to 550 and 200 to 550 . Only about £25 profit but very enjoyable and a little bit left to lay for nearer the time .
I hope some people did get on at 66-1 as posted above as now with Constitution Hill not runnih he is top priced 12-1, win or lose the value was amazing at the time, albeit slightly risky.
Good Luck! Not a great Champion Hurdle, Top 3 in the betting, all beatable. Solid jumper is Golden Ace.
Golden Ace has to have a great chance in what now appears to be a wide open affair. IMO she would have given The New Lion a serious test had he not come a cropper in the Fighting Fifth. A real slick jumper, a jockey that knows her inside ou, and no fears of the gruelling uphill finish. I'm more than confident.
I see the person who made a thousand million (allegedly) has one at a price…..
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