muss photo after slo-mo

photo boys clearly already jetted off to Mar-a-Lago

looked likely winner but wernt 'free'.

Looked free money when I stopped it live. Turned into a frantic-clicking-to-green-up job when they showed the camera shot on the line.

[img]https://images.onesite.com/community.betfair.com/user/rico-dangleflaps/3bac88a2852a863d8eaa403b26f8ab8b.jpg?

to wide apart to be free.

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pretty good margin even with wide apart. once you get the slo-mo on the line wide apart hardly matters with a 3" inch verdict.   I must still have good eyes. Thought I had missed something earlier.

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if thats 3" york hock must be 11".

if you look at the bha print with the line it's deffo a good 2 inches and probably 2 and a half.  It's really not a close one as photos go. Can be tricky when they are across the track but it was a good enough margin to be very confident for me.  If it had been anything like a cigarette paper you would be right in questioning my judgement but it was a lot more than that. If I had got that wrong I would have been very worried because as I say I was looking for other factors to knock out the fptp.

whatever the exact measurement margin of victory when it looks like that on the bha print you don't often get almost 1.25 about it.  Of course as you say the explanation is horses across the track but the slo-mo makes it way easier to identify smallish margins.

I laid the second at 3.14 after stopping the RTV pictures live. Then backed the second at 5.55 to green up when I saw the still from the RTV camera on the line. Not the slightest regret at doing so either. Usually I'm beating myself up when that happens - giving away money by greening up. Not this time. I thought the two horses were way too far apart to be sure where to draw the line on the RTV still.

we always have to go on our own judgement screaming.  My free munee was of course an exaggeration as it nearly always is. You have to put odds in your own mind though and to me after stopping the slo-mo the winner was no more than a 1.1  yet up to 1.25 was being offered. I have noticed that sometimes when an outsider has won ( 14s here ) you get a touch more than expected.

It's always free money after the result.

If playing at 1.2 then you need to have a 100% strike rate, or else it's not worth it. Are you going to get a 100% strike rate on those ones, unlikely.

If playing at 1.2 then you need to have a 100% strike rate.   Not the greatest maths there cider

You missed the second part of the sentence.

If you had 10 goes at that price with £1K, and only got it wrong once, sure you'd be a bit up before commission. But you don't know where in that sequence the loser will come. Or that you'll only get one wrong in 10. I have no problem betting long odds on, but only where I know it's highly unlikely to go wrong.

+ £800  minus  £4x9 comm.    £764 profit on £10000 staked        "I have no problem betting long odds on, but only where I know it's highly unlikely to go wrong."    Take on the 1.01 boys then.

IF you only get it wrong once. There's no guarantee of that and you could quite possibly get the second one a fifth one wrong. It's quite a way back from that, just to get back in front. It's mathematics vs real world experience in my view. So in that example from yesterday, I don't feel like you could be sure of copping, so not worth it (for me). However if you think you can nail every one of them, it is.

You got round to the main point cider.  As Barney said when asked in an interview  can punters make it pay ?  "No they have no chance of making betting pay"   "How come you've got a nice house support a stables yourself and family and a Mercedes ?  "Talent "

You've finally got to the point that I was making. A one off market like that, sure at long odds on most people will get it right on a one off basis. There aren't many that would very rarely get it wrong. Rare enough to make it worthwhile trying. There are markets that 1.2 could be massive value, that wasn't one of them in my opinion.

The vast majority of long term winners at betting have a distinct edge. Not skill necessarily, but an advantage. See Barney.

its won prob 1.5" max..that isnt much when they are wide apart and pre empting where the angles coming from this side..i always find i can identify the winner consistently when i know the result.