Sean Bowen Season Specials

Wow, just wow

Amazin

Picked it up and carried it.

did ya perm em again reg?

7lb better than any other tbh…..man possessed in a finish…..McCoy with a better personality,which wouldn’t be difficult…

Yes Foyles, posted earlier on this thread

So far, at BOG, 4/1,18/1,L,9/2

One to go at 2/1

And upped my stakes from yesterday

wd reg

Meant to add, got 6 quid worth of the ppot, paid £217 for a pound, just by combining his rides with favs... The 4th race made it

Bowen donated his prize money from the summer jumps to charity

Jesus, hé rides So short

Reg   

ponchoslament22 Oct 25 15:58

But to clarify hé has absolutely no chance of riding 290 winners,
And a remote chance  of 250, offered odds, are hugely under the true
Odds, but there’s 1000’s of mugs out there, who have no understanding
Of true odds. The trader thst set the market, will know the likely true odds


I emailed Betfair this morning asking them to put both markets up on the exchange.
If a few other people did likewise then perhaps poncho can put his money where his mouth is

The unbelievable irony of claiming that traders know the likely true odds in specials markets

True odds on markets like that don't exist as it's all about gut feel and to a degree putting the feelers out to find out the lowest odds punters will take.

As Cider rightly says though traders can't create most special markets with anymore more accuracy than the punter in reality hence why the max bet is invariably so small , and as we've seen many times in the past sometimes the mugs in these scenarios are the traders themselves.

All that said i've no personal clue what the true odds are in this case and believe i'm in the same boat as everyone else.

Your first sentence means that it is/was the biggest opportunity in any type of betting, by a wide distance. Unless you have inside information or an edge like fast pics. They are often lazily priced up, sometimes deliberately conservatively (they think). As you allude to Hayden, getting enough on is the only problem (when the inevitable ricks are made).

Was the 'hole in one' coup a real thing, or an old wives' tale Hayden (if it happened in your time, probably before).

One of the best ever jump jockeys

Wins so many races he shouldn't

Was definitely real Cider but the coup initially was a long time ago , remember bookmarking a clip with some details.......

https://www.gambling.com/uk/news/the-hole-in-one-gang-how-golf-bettors-beat-the-bookies-2232000

NH Total.  396-113.  28.54%

He's a class act imo well done again reg great stuff

Of course théy know the true odds, Jesus, théy will quickly
Money if they the odds are to big ffs. Here there’s 25s, but the horse is a 6/1
Shot, his true odds are 6, not 25s, it’s there f arking job to price the market accurately

Cheers Jacko and others
As I said earlier, I've not studied form, just blindly backed the best jockey in a lucky31 for his 5 rides yesterday and today
And got 4 out of 5 twice
I'd have rather had 0/5 and 5/5, especially today but...
He's won me about 8 grand in 2 days, including the Placepots
I'm probably a medium stakes player, I lay out about 100 quid a day and double that on Saturday or festivals
Couldn't do it again tomorrow, or Cheltenham Friday/Saturday could he?

Oct 22, 2025 -- 6:42PM, Hayden wrote:

Was definitely real Cider but the coup initially was a long time ago , remember bookmarking a clip with some details.......https://www.gambling.com/uk/news/the-hole-in-one-gang-how-golf-bettors-beat-the-bookies-2232000

Thanks for the link, so many talking points in that tale. Not least, the amount and volume of liability in bets they were able to get down!

You never know Reg and it's practically a freebie for you to find out after the last couple of successful days , if it does happen this thread will be bumped for years to come   

Some confusion on the thread i think as i thought the theme was special bets over a period of time as the OP initiated , compilers / traders put prices out there daily for bog standard events sometimes with a view to create black type but sometimes without a view and just to settle somewhere mid-market , as for specials like the one discussed the goals isn't to target the bottom line by making huge profits they're primarily to create site interest = increased footfall = new accounts and some longevity for punters who'll take a plunge and become at least a fairly loyal customer , that's what they hope to mainly achieve with long term specials and of course if they make a few quid all the better but any company will take breaking even with this kinda stuff and trust in the other gains to justify getting involved.

Some of my traders would hide behind the desk when asked for toffee specials as they understandably didn't know where to start with the majority of requests but pretty easy to test the water and they fully understood the business need for such markets , tbh it was normally the marketing dept that requested sexy specials and were normally accommodated as we were all part of a team.

Yes compiling is their job but if i interviewed someone and asked them to accurately price up what the opening post was all about and the true odds with the unknown and all the imponderables to come he'd probably think i was bonkers.


Good luck all     

So how did they come up with the opening odds??

Did they just guess ??

He's getting there, Hayden

Of course it's a guess. Educated guess perhaps. How does a compiler price up IAC before the market has formed on here (as an example). They are guessing. That's why they put up football raconteur Harry Redknapp up at 10-1. If you didn't know how Harry could hold court, he was just another crusty former football manager. And he was trading evens after a couple of days.

As some will know, xmas #1 is my raison d'être in the gambling world, and you could get £Ks of liability back in the day, and multiple bookmakers. Alas, that level of opportunity is gone. But they are still putting up markets for it, and still guessing. Like they made Band Aid fav last year when it should have been about 20-1!

I've just posted a response to the last post Ponch but it's been tagged for moderator approval for some reason

Who is betting on Everton specials?

Interesting that just now on rtv, Jacob who says he knows Bowen well, indicates that Bowen is targeting all of APs records.

Cidre, you are totally clueless, you have no idea

Welcome to my club cider or if u can't spell correctly cidre

Csnt spell cider thick as pig **** too

Imagine unknowingly mocking yourself i csnt stop psml that's it from me over and out

Didn’t I tell you to ***k off

reg, I really hope you have told the missus what a good run you are having and that you've managed to pocket a few hundred quid.

Swifty, you obviously know the game regarding telling the missus the whole story

I find it's best to use a divisor of about 10 in such conversations, win or lose.

Swifty, exactly, the 10% rule is so easy to use

I recently discovered that she uses a similar rule when telling me how much her visits to the hairdresser costs...

Hello there and thanks for your patience. Our trading team has reviewed your request and came to the conclusion that this won't be offered, sadly. Sorry about that!
- Camilla

Looks like I wont be taking ponchos money

the ten percent rule is a good un  and women are only interested in the winners, the losers are conveniently ignored ,tell them the truth about your winnings and they expect a generous cut ,mention the losers, don't wanna know ..........tell em the truth and 3 months down the line after a losing run........ you .....borrow us a couple of ton love I'm a bit short ...... her .........what! wheres all those winnings gone ? ....................er you had fooking half ! yes but I bought a new bag and coat ,you've wasted yours !..........her after thinking a bit ...... I'd better play it canny here he might win another good whack soon and I could do with some new shoes and I phone .....er ok here's the couple of ton!

Stood down for the day after second ride today. Fell off his first one. Hoping it's bruising and not serious, as I've lumped on the 8/1 for 250+ winners as well...

Whatever the outcome of this potential injury, 8/1 was a crazy price. He's on course to get to 120-125 halfway through the season and would expect him to have more winners the second half, with jumps meetings nearly every day.

Jacob made a salient point There was no 3 week break in AP's era.

Bowensonfire runs tomorrow ,you all punting it....

118 after his winner yesterday. 132 to go...

I've just read through the previous posts on here and am shocked how stupid some people can be. Saying that the layers will know more than the punters when it comes to a special market..

The best example I can use of where they're clearly clueless comes with Harry Kane. He was sitting on around 20 goals for England in his mid 20s, established with Spurs and winning regular golden boots. Skybet put up Harry Kane Specials and I backed him at 11/2 to beat the England goalscoring record. As a striker who doesn't rely on pace, I could envisage him playing into his mid 30s for England, like a certain Teddy Sheringham did.

Anyway, I had my max on, which was about £90 to win around £500 and he scored the record breaking goal about three years ago. He's now on 76 goals (previous record was 53 by Wayne Rooney) and looks like he's going to finish on around 90 odd goals. Probably should have been nearer 2/11 than 11/2..

Bon Jovi for the 250

Current prices 7/2 and 16/1

They look sort of familiar

Up to 128, which is about where he needs to be to finish on around the 250 market. Unless we get a major cold snap or injury, then it's going to be an exciting last few months of the season.

Up to 130 now and bang on target for 150 by end of November. If he can get to 170-175 by end of year then he has every chance of the 250 winners.

Up to 130 now and bang on target for 150 by end of November. If he can get to 170-175 by end of year then he has every chance of the 250 winners.

I am reasonably sure that Johnjo O’Neill was the first jumps jockey to ride just 100 winners in a season.  That was considered a huge achievement at the time.  Can anyone confirm?  Or otherwise?  I may well be wrong in the number but I do recall he set a winners record in his day.

Bowen moves onto 131. Steadily closing in on his end of November target of 150..

honcho
.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_jump_racing_Champion_Jockey
.

Thanks Elise.  Held the record for 11 years until Scu blitzed it.   Not a bad c.v.

132 winners now

132 winners now

Hope he stays fit.

Wade Out 80s in the run. He is an incredible jockey. Best I've seen since AP Mccoy

Jaysus H Chraust!    Wade Out!  I am an unashamed Sean Bowen convert.  That is riding!

Never say die ride, a joy tp watch unless you laid the bigger prices.

Who's laying Bowen at huge prices?!

Up to 133 after his ride of the season contender yesterday.

Been a poor 8 days for Sean. Only up to 139, so 6 winners in 8 days. Needs to up his game next week.

150 up

Needs to average 5 winners a week for 250, 7 winners a week for 290

Betting has disappeared apart from Hill's name the group number of winners with a 120% over-round Below 250 is 8/15 and 250 or more is 4/5 The only price movement I have noticed was 300+ 40/1 into 25/1

On a related note, it's very disappointing the lack of effort by the books regarding Specials. Hill's had some very interesting prices in their Betting without Bowen market but that's been taken down now . Paddy's has been noticeably quiet and since Skybet joined forces with them they too seem to have chucked in the towel

After a four timer on Monday and a single yesterday, he's up to 151. I make him 4/6 for 250 or more now.

When is the season finish day please?  I can of course look it up but thought one of you would know.  Thank you.

27th April I believe

25th April even..

Thank you.  Appreciated.

If he wants McCoy's record, then he needs to skip Cheltenham and Aintree. Can only see him doing that if he's on like 240-250 before Cheltenham..

Up to 153, so a poor last few days to end the week. He's off to Fontwell today for two fair chances and then hopefully has a full book of rides for the rest of the week. We could do with this rain easing off a bit..

he's a bit behind the 289 total that mccoy set & for dec to march he'd have to run at 30 plus per month

mccoy got 40 in nov when he set the record and bowen managed 23 which is where the damage was done, 250 though does look on but he needs a solid dec

Looks like only 3 rides Wednesday.
GL with the wagers.

Was that a Sean special on crossbow ?

.... Shot his bolt early, only riding to instructions imo.

Tafia in action imo

.... Made all lto, one win from 21 races. Hmm.

A really poor week so far with only one winner. Really needs to knock in three or four winners over the next three days.

even with apparently 7lb in hand in every race Bowen could get any of  4 handicapers in the 1st 6 today at chelt,so there's 4 horses need swerving everytime Bowen isn't riding them

A poor month for Sean, but a double today takes him up to 164. I was hoping for 170 by month end, so will fall slightly short, but I still make him 4/6 to get to 250.

Sean finishes 2025 on 167 winners. I was hoping for 170 at this stage, so not far off target. I think the 250 will depend on the weather in January now. I've set him a hefty target of 200 by month end, but if we get a week or two of bad weather, then he could be stranded on 180 and I don't think he can do it from there.

Happy new year to all!

even HUGHES now defying a 7lb penalty and giving a hammering  to yet another 7lb for nothing Bowen odds on fav

He didn't look to busy on the runner up - a different ride completely from his winner in the first - not sure why he stayed wide the whole way round there compared to his winner in the first race

It didn't appear to get the usual Bowen kitchen sink ride.....a bit more hands and heels?

Luckily they told us it was a maiden hurdle before the race.

181 winners with 13 weeks left. Needs just over 5 winners a week, so still very achievable. I'd have him at 5/4 for 250+ now..

Winner on Monday followed by a treble today is what we like to see. He's going to Ireland on Saturday though unfortunately, so could really do with a double at Ffos Las tomorrow, to keep the wolves from the door... Current on 185, so 65 more needed..

8/1 a nice bet gl

Up to 201, so 49 winners needed in next 64 days. Every chance I'd say, though Cheltenham and Aintree will obviously affect the strike rate a little..

Up to 204 after a treble yesterday. Got four more decent chances today and is riding every day this week. I make him 4/7 to get to 250 now..

Single yesterday, so up to 205.

45 winners to go..

Couple more singles takes him to 207, with rides booked every day into start of next week.

He needs another 43 winners in 58 days. It's definitely on!

Now needs 42 from 50

Was a good effort but I would make him probably the same price now as when this started.

However, every day (and bet) should be a learning experience and I definitely could have played this smarter. Given that 225 was 6/4 and I thought it more like a 1/4 shot then a more sensible staking plan would have been 1pt,1pt and ½pt on the three outcomes that were offered.

A fruitless Cheltenham as predicted, but up to 217 after a double today, with one more ride to go. He's going to finish between 240-260, so whatever happens now, it was brilliant value at 8/1. The doubters at the start must feel a bit silly now...

241

Close but no cigars

Price buggered for next season

Just seen that Hill's are quoting 6/1 to beat 289

Shocking price. 66/1 would be closer to true odds.