Northumberland Plate - Trends analysis

This race has some pretty solid and fairly reliable reproduced stats now it’s been ran on the AW for a good few years. It has highlighted that this year’s renewal is not the greatest and that Trueshan would probable win it with Giant Haystacks aboard, but here goes...

OR above 89 12/12
Previous race SP 10/1 or less 12/12
Previous race beaten less than 6L 12/12
Won a race over at least 12F 12/12
Career starts 10+ 11/12
Runs this season 1-4 11/12
Previous race RPR 95+ 12/12
Previous race finishing position top 4 12/12
Handicap wins 2-5 11/12
Highest class of race won C2 or C3 11/12
LTO less than 80 days 11/12
Previous race class 3 or above 11/12

Remembering there is no Trueshan in this race these highlight 3 horses as follows

East India Dock - hits all stats apart from 6th LTO in Chester Cup
Spirit Mixer - bottom range of OR, 2nd 2 years ago, but disappointing last year
Dancing in Paris - bottom range of OR, relatively untried over 2M

Honourable mention for Faylaq - 9YO but so was Nick T a couple years ago.

Tried them on simple yes / no for meeting requirements and then weighted as well, similar results.

Would welcome comments on what you all fancy.

Have a good one.