Two Year Olds

Regarding statistics how is that possible with a two year old?

Please explain how my tip beat the odds-on Favourite where are the statistics ?

You bet your selection in a match bet with the odss-on jolly?

Nice. How much did you win.

I'm not really a fan of "statistics" as a stand-alone factor - but I thought the two I posted were marginally more interesting that your two opening posts and a copy & paste. it looks like the other 3 posters on this thread agreed.

Bye

Yeah, I doubt it - but fingers crossed.

You should consider changing your username

I use pedigree not stats

kingsnake501 Jun 25 15:52Joined: 22 Apr 04 | Topic/replies: 1,347 | Blogger: kingsnake5's blog
You should consider changing your username

That doesn't seem to have worked for you. Still dull as ditchwater.

And yes, I could tell from your insightful write-up that use pedigree. Chum.

https://www.pedigreequery.com

pedigree data is stats!

Owner: Al Shaqab Racing
    Breeder: Epona Bloodstock Ltd
  Winnings: 8 Starts: 4 - 3 - 1, £305,953

At 2:
1st July Stakes (GB-G2,2yoC&G,6fT,Nmk), Richmond Stakes (GB-G2,2yoC&G,6fT,Goo)
2nd National Stakes (Ire-G1,2yoC&F,7fT,Cur), Coventry Stakes (GB-G2,2yo,6fT,Asc), National Stakes (GB-L,2yo,5fT,San)
3rd Middle Park Stakes (GB-G1,2yoC,6fT,Nmk)

Foaled 21 April 2014
TatOct'15 yrlg: 62,000gns
Raced as 2yo in GB and Ireland.
Entered stud in 2017 at Tally-Ho Stud, Ireland
Leading first-season sire in Europe

Pedigree of. MEHMAS

1) I thought you were clued up, so I'm surprised you think he's new - he's been starting worthless threads under multiple user names for many years.
2) If you want more new threads just stating the name of a runner (and if you're lucky, sometimes the time of the race), more fool you imo.
3) My pup looks like he's thinking outside the box. The forum input from the Opening Poster suggests he might be locked in a box with the lid nailed down.
4) Laybet Favourite (time and meeting to follow, after the race)

https://dogs.pedigreeonline.com

ALBET EINSTIEN failed latest exam ,missing ROYAL ASCOT

Please note this is a Two year old thread

Try to act your age not your shoe size

boom boom fahey

7 to 2 in to 13 to 8,boom

Well done 1tp - A rough race - but most enjoyable!

He breaks his 2yo duck for the season, but still on just 2 from 49 (last 2 weeks - all ages) - Hopefully turned a corner and they come along like buses now.


Horse Racing > Wetherby 2nd Jun : 5f Mdn Stks
Showing 1 - 1 of 1 selections
Selection
Odds    Stake (£)    Bid type    Placed    Profit/Loss (£)
Coparisi
*5.25    164.00    Lay   
02-Jun-25 18:32
164.00
*Average odds:  On  Off                   
Back subtotal:    0.00
Lay subtotal:    164.00
Market subtotal:    164.00
Commission @ 2%:    3.28
Net Market Total:    160.72

LEICESTER   2:47

Tomorrow

LEICESTER   2:47     This is not a competition

Today's race is open to members of community.    I won't be posting my pick.   The Managment has an agenda this may prove it

It is are raining not here also.

kingsnake5 03 Jun 25 08:56 
Today's race is open to members of community.    I won't be posting my pick.   The Managment has an agenda this may prove it

Ffs….bottle gone ?

Bottle has nothing to do with trying  being part of the community    Can we expect your pick later.?
Wealth warning the race is 7 furlongs and the goning is good

Just be part and ignore him he loves to dig….any age it doesn’t matter…..

He’ll read this then send back four pages of vomit…..

I won't be posting my pick because I doubt if I'll be here come race time 10:33 and certain member has tried to insult me.
You'll be relieved to hear that I've had enough.     Try to play nice and enjoy the Race

Go for it! - I love my 2yo races and would really enjoy reading or contributing to a good 2yo thread, focussing on them each day with many contributors and a bit of analysis. I can't see this being it, as you've offered practically nothing to attract people or stimulate a discussion.

You might not like my intervention but it brought in a few contributions; prior to that, you were talking to yourself and you'd probably still be talking to yourself without it.

Maybe take a look at your first few posts and consider why you didn't attract anybody any participants. If you're truly interested in 2yo races you must surely have more to say than a race-time and a horse name?

I've got a commitment today (and the racing is poor imo).... go for your life, if you've got something to say. I'll look forward to a fascinating read later.

I predict that nobody will pick the winner

The Managment     You intervention being the conspiracy theory about me have several unsernames is complete bollox I would need several email address Shirley      Pity about you being busy elsewhere the race is definitely a Laybet race

LAMNOL     Laybet.    Reason.   Hood first time

What about first time with no nuts Kings nake or do you not consider that factor?

Apologies you'll have to wait I still have you blocked.    I've just unblocked you which take time

Gagiarig.    Why cut the nuts off a baby.   Two year old Gelding???

Not uncommon, usually to calm down "Coltish" behaviour and take their minds off the ladies. Had a share in one just such and it did seem to work.

I've check the two year old race today. there are several geldings keep a check were they are placed

I see I did't miss much.

Why instinctively lay a very young, very unexposed horse that's doing something new for the first time?

I wouldn't (blindly) have a blanket rule to back or lay a horse doing something new or for the first time - but it often warrants a second glance from me to come to one of those two conclusions - i.e. will it worsen or improve performance.

Of course, at the prices, there's about an 85% chance your lay will be successful anyway - but I don't see how you can conclude that the hood or the gelding operation (which I assume you weren't even aware of), can be your rationale for the lay.

The two year old in the 3:17 is a Gelding and Favourite bet or lay?

LAMNOL     Came 13th @40/1.  Last time out in April.     Hood fist time.    Laybet

I wouldn't have a strong opinion on backing or laying the fav in that 15:17 race. I'd like to think my approach to most races is a bit more sophisticated (less binary) than that and there are many other options (including not to play pre-race at all). I look at some races (where the runners are more exposed) from that angle - but that wouldn't be such a race.

I can say I wouldn't back or lay anything based purely on it being a gelding or not, is it wearing a hood or not, etc.

Also Jack The Tooth  (15:17) was gelded before it ever saw a racecourse (so it's not even the same scenario as your suggested lay in the 14:47 race).

3:17.   Two year old.      Favourite   Gelding    JACK THE TOOTH      Laybet

8th.   25/1.  Last time out.     Above horse

Both once raced (your 2yo lays in the 14:47 & 15:17 races).

Probability is on your side in both races (possibly it's the only thing that is on your side), so hopefully you'll be lucky today. Your posts today leave me concluding that getting lucky is your best hope.

Like I said earlier, I'd really enjoy reading and/or contributing to a good 2yo thread - but this ain't it.
Goodbye & Good luck.

Hood Didn't Work.   Laybet Ahoy.   

Nice - you were spot on with your analysis too, it was definitely the hood wot stopped it

a 2/13 winner. Well done.

The Managment I read you contribution yesterday and admire your honesty. There's nothing stopping you starting another Two Year Old thread

2 for fahey tomorrow
GREAT PROFIT  1st at ripon ev meeting
and one you want paying out per letter at notts if it wins 
THEHUNNELBELLLEGACY

Thank you.

Jack the Tooth.  bollox

Jack The Tooth took a bight out  of ol’ snake

tanglefoot     

tanglefoot @5/4 just a nibble

I would have gone for Grand Echo,so somebody knew about the Tooth.

im trying the one ear is slightly bigger than the other lay system

Lingfield 7:15.    BECKFORD'S FOLLY      Hood.  First time.    Laybet

One ear much bigger than the other one - coupled with a first time hood.

Now that has some possibilities as a lay system imo

yes, clearly imbalanced weight wise and have a tendency to lug(!) to one side, brilliant no?

Probably fine tune it by throwing in a filter for left or right handed courses (depending on which side the big ear is on). Job done.

damn i'd forgotten about bends, i'm going to have to calculate speed and distance around the radius and factor in centrifugal force

18 months is a ear and a half

Kings nake why not shut us all up by explaining your theory that the purchase price next to a horses name translates to stride pattern on the track, you never did explain?

you never heard of £ per length?

I knew there had to be an explanation elise!! lol

You have Rico to thank for my lack of a full explanation up until now I've had too many insults and conspiracy theory's about me having several usernames which is Bollox

Great Profit (IRE)
Sales Details
Nov 2024 Goffs Ireland Price: €16,000
Nov 2023 Goffs Ireland Price: Vendor (3000)   Fahey Ripon tomorrow two year old    Very weak on the Dam side of pedigree

Tanks Rico......

The Managment      You said that this thread could be more readable here's your chance to shie take it away. I'm out.
Good Luck

Shine

Like most days at this stage of the 2yo season, I don't have a strong pre-race view on anything much today. But here's my take/approach on one of today's three 2yo races:

In the 14:22 Nottingham I think the blinkered first time, gelding, Front Line Fury currently about 70 in a very thin/early Betfair market (and drifting) is too big, so possibly a back to lay or a small speculative bet in the 4TBP market if that price or likely bigger is still around when the market gets some liquidity. It looks like a 2 horse race (according to the betting) and could well be - but at the prices the top end of the market doesn't give you a lot of scope in the bigger scheme of things (long term).

Trained by George Scott, who has a decent strike rate with his 2yo's on turf (18% last 5 years) and 3 from 16 this season. Stable currently in good nick with 6 winners from 29 runners in the past 2 weeks (3 of the winners were 2yo's). Slight reservation that his winners often tend to be well backed/short prices but he also often has one go well or place at a big price.

Front Line Fury ran well (imo) at Yarmouth first time out in a Class 2 race (today is Class 5), ultimately well beaten in 3rd by what looked a really impressive winner. He finished ahead of Silent Applause (who re-opposes today and is again a much shorter price than FLF) in what was essentially a 4 horse bunch finish for the places. FLF ran pretty green (as did others) but caught my eye as he finished his race off quite nicely in a race where the winner was in a different league. The winning owner (Wathnan Racing) of that Yarmouth race re-opposes again today with another short priced newcomer and the short priced fav (the AMO horse) clearly has the best form by a distance.

That's a hell of a lot of words for a huge outsider/complete no-hoper and in all likelihood he will finish about 8th (as suggested by his Position In the Market), so not a win bet or even an EW bet - but depending on the market at liquidity stage, possibly a back to lay or a small speculative punt in the 4TBP market.

I'll never write that much again on here (Could have just written the selection & back-to-lay or 4tbp) but wanted to outline my possible approach to that race and the thinking behind it.

I have some early views on the other two 2yo races but can't be bothered with a write up on those races (on a day like today). Realistically the Wathnan Racing owned horses probably have some sort of say in the outcome of all three 2yo races today and they are showing quite an impressive LSP with their 2yo's (despite their generally short prices).

Backing one to win or laying one to win in any given race is all very well at times (if a bit old fashioned) and I'm still quite happy to do that from time to time - But I'm primarily here to make money. So I know that finding horses that might out-run their prices (and then backing and/or laying them accordingly via the correct bet option or combination of bet options) will do the job as effectively (long term) as looking for straightforwards winners/losers.

Is there anything today in your mind (it doesn't have to be a winner) that will out-run it's price and/or one that's too short?

^ I've taken the money. When some liquidity arrived, Front Line Fury drifted to 100+ in the win market and a high of 130, now back to about 36 (which seems short enough) and is currently also too short for a play in the 4TBP market (where I didn't play because liquidity is/will be practically non-existent until race time).

22/1 About the winner on here who was 11/2 third fav in the post, some big money buys ran poorly there, your selection certainly outran his odds aswell.

2:50.   ZELAINA     Laybet. Due to dam. Historical Rating.    0 and badly draw

best available was
3,s in the 1st
and
5 to 2 in the 2nd race
certain bookies double specials  boost last night was 2,s

ZELAINA     Won

As per my 12:40 post, academic to me in the end how mine ran in the 14:22 race (as is often the case). I cashed in too soon but achieved the numbers I had roughly in my mind - so the race was over for me about 2 hours before it was actually run.

In the race itself - he held on to 4th by the shortest of short heads.

Suggested (loosely) as a back-to-lay at 70.00 (or likely bigger when liquidity arrives). Went on to subsequently trade pre-race at 100+ for reasonable money (and a high of 130) when some liquidity arrived. Eventually went of at BFSP of just 24.65 and touched 12.00 in-running.

Also suggested (loosely) as a bet in the 4 To Be Placed market when trading at 70 in the win market. The usual lack of liquidity made that a bit academic as the 4TBP price that corresponds to 70 (or 100+ etc) in the win market, was never really there in the 4TBP market (it never is!). But finished 4th anyway (just!) at BF 4 ToBePlaced SP of 2.82.

Only grumble is cashing in too soon for too little, I probably backed it (on average) at about 15 points too short and traded back out at more than 10 points too big! It's a rare event where you get in at the absolute maximum and out at the absolute minimum (on a back-to-lay). Pointless to grumble as it's a bit like wondering why you didn't have more on, when you back a winner.

I see you are back to Plan A Kingsnake - with the same results as before!

The Managment     I Laybet the favourite in the first (3rd) Please don't lower the thread by having a poke at me

kingsnake504 Jun 25 15:08Joined: 22 Apr 04 | Topic/replies: 1,383 | Blogger: kingsnake5's blog
The Managment     I Laybet the favourite in the first (3rd) Please don't lower the thread by having a poke at me

^ No sign of you doing that - you've only posted one selection today - a lay - and it won.

You said you were "out". Obviously you lied. I'll leave you to it.

Good work management....

Freddie you are still blocked

One is nobody till a snake blockers u

The Managment    I've thought of a new username how about James Joyce

Dostoevsky?

Peter and Jane Ladybird books more up your street imo.

If only winning was as easy as guessing race-by-race whether to back or lay the favourite

Enough.  Huh?

Enough.

fahey ruuner there GREAT PROFIT  well backed ,fell out of stalls,green as grass never went a yd

1st Time Poster - as per my first post (on Page One of this thread), there's something not right with them (imo), lots of them running way below expectation/ability all season so far. Similar again yesterday, only one runner (which in itself might indicate something isn't quite right with them).

Tropical Island finished last of six at 13/2 (15:42 Hamilton). I wouldn't have fancied her chances anyway (she was up in class and up in the weights) - but she ran no sort of race and was given an easy time of it after she "weakened quickly" a long way from home and trailed in last.

Only three declared today (all at Epsom; two in the 15:15 & one in the 17:10). Will keep an eye on how they perform but their position in the market means that might not be overly telling anyway.

Only 4 declared for tomorrow (Saturday), also indicates (to me) that all is maybe still not well.

Probably worth throwing a few quid at some speculative small-stake multiples (maybe trebles) in the coming weeks - if and when there are any signs that they are over whatever the issue is at the moment.

had a go at HAVE SECRET yesterday ew extra places at 11,s,but yep not running well and not many out

At least Have Secret looks like one (of the very few) that has run to form/expectation a few times throughout the "barren spell". GL.

Incredible.

Fahey stable flying!

28,s

Will have to keep watching imo - as although Ecureuil Secret has bolted up at 34+ BFSP, Have Secret was pretty strong in the market all day and like a lot of his other runners, has run no race at all (only beat one horse home and that horse that was tailed off).

Has he got 2 yards? If you look at his last few runners it really is a few running Okish (if not winning) and the rest running like drains.

big price just nutted