ts on saturday

alyanaabi.

Another busy Saturday of horse racing ahead with the LIVE ITV action this week coming from Chester, York and Haydock. As always, we’ve got all the LIVE races covered from a trends and stats angle – use these to help narrow down the field and find the best profiles of past winners.

Haydock Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)
1.48 – Betfred Supports Jack Berry House Handicap Cl3 (4yo+ 0-95) 6f ITV
7/7 – Aged between 4-6
6/7 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
5/7 – Drawn in stalls 6 or higher
5/7 – Carried between 9-2 and 9-8 (inc)
5/7 – Carried 9-2 or more in weight
2/7 - Trained by David O’Meara
2/7 – Ridden by Charles Bishop
2/7 – Trained by Eve Johnson Houghton
0/7 – Winning favourites
The average SP in the last 7 runnings is 10/1

Surewin Best Bet: FINE INTERVIEW
Surewin Danger: KING'S LYNN
2:23 – Betfred ‘The Classic Bookmaker’ Achilles Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (3yo) 5f ITV
15/15 – Returned 14/1 or shorter
13/15 – Aged 5 or older
13/15 – Had won over 5f before
13/15 – Didn’t win last time out
12/15 – Had raced in the last 10 weeks
11/15 – Had finished in the top 5 last time out
11/15 – Drawn between stalls 2-7 (inc)
11/15 – Had run at the course before
10/15 – Won between 6-8 times before
9/15 – Winning distance 1 length or less
8/15 – Unplaced favourites
5/15 – Winning favourites
2/15 – Trained by William Haggas
2/15 – Ridden by Oisin Murphy (2 of the last 8)
10 of the last 11 winners returned 9/1 or shorter
4 of the last 9 winners from stalls 5 (2) or 9 (2)
The last 12 winners came between stalls 2-10
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 5/1
Note: The 2020 running was staged at Doncaster

Surewin Best Bet: JASOUR
Surewin Danger: LEOVANNI
2:58 – Betfred Nifty 50 Lester Piggott Fillies’ Stakes (Reg as the Pinnacle Stakes) (Group 3) Cl1 (4yo+) 1m3f ITV4
21/22 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
20/22 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
19/22 – Rated 92 or higher
18/22 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
17/22 – Aged 4 years-old
17/22 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
15/22 – Placed favourites
14/22 – Had won over 1m4f before
14/22 – Drawn in stall 5 or lower
6/22 – Had run at Haydock before
6/22 – Winning favourites
6/22 – Won last time out
3/22 – Trained by William Haggas (3 of the last 6)
3/22 – Trained by John Gosden (2 of the last 9)
2/22 – Trained by Roger Varian
2/22 – Ridden by Tom Marquand (2 of the last 3)
The last 9 winners returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
The last 11 winners aged 4 or 5
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 10/3

Surewin Best Bet: SHAHA
Surewin Danger: CHORUS
3.33 - Betfred John Of Gaunt Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 7f ITV
20/21 – Rated 106 or higher
18/21 – Drawn in stall 7 or lower
18/21 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
18/21 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
18/21 – Had won over 7f before
17/21 – Came from the top three in the betting
12/21 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
13/21 – Drawn in stall 3 or lower
13/21 – Favourites placed
14/21 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
14/21 – Had won at least 4 times before
7/21 – Had run at the track before
7/21 – Winning favourites (1 joint, 1 Co)
3/21 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/21 – Trained by Charles Hills (2 of the last 9)
10 of the last 12 winners were aged between 4-6
Kinross won this in 2021
The average winning SP in the last 9 years is 11/2



Surewin Best Bet: ALYANAABI
Surewin Danger: AUDIENCE

Chester Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)
2.10 – Roman Day Handicap Cl2 (4yo+ 0-105) 7f ITV
Only 1 previous runnings
Trainer Harriet Bethell has a 25% SR with her 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer William Haggas has a 22% SR with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Ian Williams is just 6-165 (4%) with his 4+ year-olds at the track



Surewin Best Bet: NEVER SO BRAVE
Surewin Danger: BREWING
York Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)
2.40 – William Hill More Top Prices Handicap Cl2 5f ITV
8/10 – Winning distance ¾ length or less
8/10 – Aged 5 or younger
8/10 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
8/10 – Didn’t win last time out
6/10 – Drawn in stalls 5-9 (inc)
4/10 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
3/10 – Ridden by a claiming jockey
3/10 – Returned between 5/1 and 9/1 in the betting
2/10 – Aged 4 years-old
3/10 – Winning favourites
6 of the last 7 went to horses aged 3 or 5
3 of the last 9 winners from stall 5
The average SP in the last 8 runnings is 12/1

Surewin Best Bet: LOOM
Surewin Danger: ZAYER
3.15 – Williamhill.com Bronte Cup Fillies’ Stakes (Group 3) (4yo+) Cl1 1m6f ITV
Just 6 previous runnings
6/6 - Aged 4 or 5 years-old (3 each)
6/6 – Drawn in stalls 5 or lower
6/6 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
2/6 - Winning favourites
Trainers Ralph Beckett, Andrew Balding, Roger Varian, John Gosden and William Haggas have won the race in the past
Trainer Tom Ward has a 67% SR (2/3) with this 4+ year-olds at the track
Term Of Endearment won the race last year (when trained by Henry de Bromhead)

Surewin Best Bet: TERM OF ENDEARMENT
Surewin Danger: SUENO

Regarding Jasour

Haydock 2.23 – Jasour
Jasour is a talented horse who has run well in Group One company, with a third in the Commonwealth Cup and sixth in the July Cup his best efforts at that level, but he’s always been a headstrong horse, so he’s dropping back to listed class here as we look to get him back to winning ways.

He’s had wind surgery over the winter, I’ve ridden him in work this spring, and he feels great, but he does need to settle much better, at Newmarket in the July Cup he pulled my arms out and still finished sixth, so the talent is there. He was due to run at Salisbury last weekend over six furlongs, but had the slightest hiccup and had to wait for this instead, but I think that could be a blessing, as a quick five furlongs could really suit him. He’s an exciting horse and I’m looking forward to this.

Sounds like it could be a lay selection

Sir Tom Q&A

Are we ignoring the obvious when it comes to this season's Epsom Classics? Ruling Court and Desert Flower have the best form and Charlie Appleby seems sure they'll stay; do you fancy their chances?

Spot on. Everyone is talking up others and picking holes in the Guineas winners. I can't find any and would be especially sweet on the chances of Desert Flower.

Do you think The Lion In Winter will improve enough from York to win the Derby?

I think he'll improve hugely for the run, but I don't think he'll stay the trip. I have him down as a miler.

What’s your assessment of the Dante form? I thought Pride Of Arras was impressive on only his second run and is entitled to improve on that, which might well be good enough.

I'm not actually sure about the form but Pride Of Arras looked the best horse every step of the way and it's worth remembering he was just about the only Ralph Beckett colt to run any sort of race in a trial, so I expect him to improve a lot.

Who is the best Derby winner you have seen in your lifetime?

I love questions like this as I'm a huge racing fan first and foremost. My heart says Troy because he was the horse who really sparked my love for racing but the head says Golden Fleece, who ran only four times but might just be the best horse I've ever seen.

I've always believed the one Classic you can ‘fluke’ is the Derby (see Serpentine) so do you think Aidan O’Brien sometimes runs so many horses because he knows you need a lot of luck?

I think Aidan runs lots when he doesn't have one standout, Martin, and given how well bred they are there is always the chance of an upset in an era when not that many are bred to stay.

If we omit all other runners, where would you say the value lay in the two Epsom Classics? Backing Coolmore or Godolphin?

I've already mentioned I like the Godolphin horses, and I do think it's strange to see the 2,000 Guineas winner as third favourite for the Derby – that doesn't make much sense to me. But I would say that the value in the Oaks is probably with Coolmore's Whirl. I was impressed with her at York where she hit the line very hard.

I have been very disappointed with the general clamour to call Field Of Gold the moral winner of the 2,000 Guineas. Do you think this will be put to bed if Ruling Court wins the Derby?

I have to disagree with you here, Gil, as I think Field Of Gold would easily beat Ruling Court if they met again, but that doesn't mean I don't like Ruling Court. It would be something if he became the second Derby winner by Justify in just two crops.

Who is your standout colt and filly so far this year with a view to the biggest middle-distance races in the autumn?

The standout horse so far this season is Field Of Gold and it's not even close. I'm looking forward to seeing him over ten furlongs. Desert Flower would obviously be high up the list for the fillies but I loved Falakeyah in the Pretty Polly too.

I have Delacroix at 25-1 each-way ante-post for the Derby. What do think of his chances?

What a great bet. Of course he's got a great chance. He looks so straightforward in that he settles and quickens, whereas I'm not sure the same can be said for many of the others in the Derby.

If Pride Of Arras was trained by Aidan O’Brien or Charlie Appleby, would he be favourite?

I get what you're implying and having backed him a long time ago I'm hoping your confidence in him is well placed, but I'm not sure he should be a shorter price than the Guineas winner on what they've achieved so far.

Will the first four home in the Lockinge reverse places in the Queen Anne Stakes?

That's very possible. Rosallion and Notable Speech hadn't had a run and Rosallion is unbeaten at the track. I do think Lake Forest has a chance in that race too.

Do you have any early fancies for the handicaps at Royal Ascot?

I have loads of ideas but we only have prices for the Wokingham and Hunt Cup at the present time. Jarraaf would be my first choice in the Wokingham currently, although I won't be able to resist Orazio if he runs in the race again. As for the Hunt Cup, the Curragh winner Skukuza is the one I keep coming back to.

Which ‘hold-up’ horse has the best chance in this year's handicaps?

I like the cut of your jib. I like a hold-up horse at Ascot as they often go for home a furlong too soon and I'd be very interested in Gleneagle Bay in the Buckingham Palace.

Do you look at the jockey rather than the form of the horse in certain handicaps?

The horse is always top of the list and jockeys can't make them run faster, although they can certainly make them run a lot slower. Consequently, I always want to be on a jockey who appears to have worked tracks out. Jamie Spencer is one at Ascot, while I think Saffie Osborne has got it sussed too.

Can you name a couple of horses you’d be interested in for the King Edward VII?

A nice easy one! However, it will be interesting to see what the Coolmore boys do with Stay True. He could go for the Queen's Vase but he would be interesting here, while Devil's Advocate ran a sneakily good race for the Gosdens in the Dante and might appreciate stepping up in trip too.

If your form pick for either Ascot or Epsom is drawn in what is considered the least favorable stall, would you change your mind or what other factors would need to be in its favour for you to still make it a strong contender?

I'm not a great believer in draw analysis because it's always changing and I hate backing horses I don't fancy just because of their stalls position. Furthermore, everyone says you need a high draw in the Dash, for example, and when low draws win, which is a lot, no-one bats an eyelid. So the answer to your question is that I don't change my mind. It's all about ability and a thinking jockey for me.

Anything lined up for the Hunt Cup?

I've already mentioned Skukuza currently but I'd be concerned if the ground was very fast. If that's the case, the form of the Newmarket race won by Fox Legacy looks strong and I wouldn't rule out the third that day, Arabian Light, getting much closer at Ascot over a mile.

Can you give us a good treble for Royal Ascot?

At the moment I'd go for Lake Forest in the Queen Anne, Jarraaf in the Wokingham and the banker of all bankers, Field Of Gold in the St James's Palace.

Is there anything who didn’t run in the Lockinge who can win the Queen Anne?

I'm beginning to sound like a broken record, but I like Lake Forest a lot. He's crying out for a step up to a mile, has course form and I'm not totally convinced the older milers are unbeatable.

Can anything beat My Cloud in the Hunt Cup?

He's obviously a very interesting horse, but he's becoming a short price now and loads of things can go wrong, plus this will be the best race he's ever run in.

All six of Ralph Beckett’s Royal Ascot winners have come in handicaps and since 2021 he’s had 14 out of 31 handicap runners finish in the top six. Are any of his handicappers on your radar this year?

Love the stat. Qirat is definitely of interest in whichever race he runs in. Consolidation in the Britannia and Dash Of Azure in the Sandringham look likely types too.

Ballydoyle and Godolphin seem to have plenty of two-year-old ammunition for Royal Ascot but have you spotted any you like from smaller yards?

You can't really call these guys smaller trainers any more, but from outside the yards you mention I'd nominate Karl Burke's Venetian Sun and Gavin Cromwell's Joyful Tidings. Burke is a man to follow in any race these days and I was really impressed by Venetian Sun at Carlisle, while Cromwell has an amazing record with his two-year-olds at Royal Ascot so if his Tipperary winner Joyful Tidings was to turn up, she would be of great interest too.

How do you treat the draw on the straight course at Ascot? I can never get it right!

Simple. Forget about it. It just causes more trouble than it's worth.

With the exception of the horse’s price, which of all the other factors – going, draw, stable form, jockey, raw ability, etc – is the single most important factor when deciding what to back?

It's all about ability. If you keep backing the horse who can run the fastest, you won't go far wrong.

First 2 obliged at 6s and 7s
2 more to come

his 16,s shot kept him his slot without it the bottle of milk in morning line fridge  will have lasted longer

Cheers Ram