Lake Victoria

Left the race alone as it centres around her, and she is a short price. You either believe O'Brien and she wins, or she hasn't trained on, and she loses. That 1,000 Guineas was way below. They finished in a heap, and she was beaten by horses she should have trounced. Don't think there is much to throw a dart at. Did have a look at City Of Memphis, but I don't like Sioux Nation's and along with the massive rise in class, she must be a doubtful stayer.

Swelter for DKW and Chris Hayes will do me.

AOB said she will be spot on today and Swelter is on the drift,so the omens are with LV.

I’m laying this one to back in running and looking for 25% profit all round.
1540 Curragh Lake Victoria
Whenever O’Briens lose a big race there’s always a “reason” for it. Very rarely have I heard it wasn’t good enough. I’ve even read today that it’s back on its favourite track.
Prior to the loss it was 2/2 at the Curragh and Newmarket. Now it’s been beaten at Newmarket the Curragh is suddenly its favourite track.
This looks easier than the English 1000 but I still don’t feel that it should be odds on.
It didn’t look to have the speed for the guineas and will be better over further.
Some simple statistical musing which many don’t like but make it a Lay to Back.
Out of Frankel who has a CD record over the last 5 years of 2/32.  Throw in today’s going and that becomes 0/11 and 0 places.
Out of last 12 races the bottom 3 draws account for only 4 winners with stall 3 featuring once which was last year.
Ryan Moore over the last 5 years with CD and Class is 4/23 for a loss of 13 points.
If we remove Distance it becomes 47/151 for a loss of 19 points.
Looking at Swelter its main challenger:
Out of Kingman whose CD record is 2/21. Add the going and it’s 2/8 with another place.
One of those winners is Field of Gold who stamped his authority yesterday.
Hayes over the last 5 years with CD and Class is 3/23 for a profit of 5.9 points.
Removing the distance it’s 14/114 for a profit of 64 points.
Ladbrokes are happy to oppose Lake Victoria at evens which is often a sign in itself.
So even money for a horse that seemed to lack the speed last time, from a sire that has 0/11 for CD and Class.
Or 3/1 for a Horse that strolled up last time and has a Sire with positive returns CD and Class whilst providing the Irish 2000 winner yesterday.

from S

Who's S, an imaginary punter/pundit? I think she's solid, her price is bad. Last week one could have 2/1 (5/2 antepost).

Interesting write up luckyme. Can I just ask where do you get the statistics for sire records over course and distance?

shunned upon by bhb,itv etc but back in the day before digital boards  and internet/mobile betting,the thrill of going to races as kids was picking up,holding your dads multi coloured , different bookies tkts

Race looked to be run at a dawdle, but the favourite has won very comfortably. Guineas form hasn't stood up which makes it a little annoying if you backed Elwateen on that day. City Of Memphis probably appreciated the slow pace, but still didn't see it out well enough to finish third. She will drop back. Other than the winner probably a pretty average renewal. I know the dam was speedy, but I think Lake Victoria might well be better over further.

Race time faster than standard.

I'm guessing the wind is helping with that, Ballseye.

Looking at the other 1m race times.

Like DD said, it looked a steadily run race.

I think the ground was quicker than yesterday. It was raining yesterday too. The assignment was made much easier without Desert Flower. She'd encounter Zarigana in The Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot next month.

Aiden:"She was only ready to go to Newmarket, we were going to come here for her first time but the way it worked we went there."
Any Irish translators tell me what he actually means?

HQ was a prep run

Thanks. What did he mean by 'ready'? Not ready?

Ready for a race

He actually said 'racecourse gallop at Newmarket'

It's pretty nebulous at the best of times from Ballydoyle. But in regard to LV specifically, he told the world she was not going to be at her peak for HQ, and she would be today.

The way I see it having evolved is that the priorities have been pushed back, and the Newmarket guineas come too early. Decades ago of course they used to have a prep race for the guineas. Then it moved to running in the guineas first time out, having done extensive prep at home. Now they see doing extensive prep at home coming too early, and HQ is just a stepping stone to targets later in the season.

There was an old adage wasn't there that the guineas is the last 2yo race of the season.

yes Cider you are spot on. Especially with horses from Coolmore who will be campaigned abroad in a season that lasts until early December in Hong Kong. With far more prize money as well. Compared to even a few years ago, the facilities for transportation, recovery after journey etc etc have improved immensely I suspect. It is no longer a risk to send these horses to USA,  Sydney, Melbourne, Hong Kong  etc. Why knacker them by trying to get them race fit in a wet, cold, windy February/March. Especially fillies.

valid points Cider, but im really a dinasour, now horse racing should be winning classics and group1 , and all trainers in the past would be ready for those races, or if not wouldnt be sending them 25 % ready , but these lot are making a mockery of our great tradition, ps look at the betting for derby its up and down like bloody snake and ladders with their 2 main horses,  its just a crying shame , anyway  dont worry in few years its be just like .greyhound racing .dead

the only  thing then Donegal, its very unlikely youll get that reallly great great horse, a sea the stars, a frankel, a dancing brave, oh so sharp, miesques etc, and thats 1 thing that obrien has never had a real champion on the trackimo

quite. These races post-Champions day may pay the bills, increase stud values and be prestigious amongst racing professionals , but are mostly ignored by fans here, whilst the horses you mention are legends . And you are right. I suspect AO'B will not have one now since it inevitably involves a win/close placing in a Guineas at least.

Ironically the one great great horse they did land on was trained in France :)

Donegal I take your points but why run a horse in a classic if you know it's not ready? AOB
Has done this in every recent season. If you can't get em ready don't embarrass them. Vincent  O'Brian knew a cold wet Irish winter could ruin a good horse's chance in the first classics - so he sent Sir Ivor to Italy for the winter.

They take the view that they can't peak a horse for every race it runs in over a season. It's the Mullins approach on the flat, effectively.

I don't buy that for Group 1 races. I'm a Sea the Stars nut I know, but six G1s month by month proves it can be done. Makes a mockery of the game if you're running 'unfit' horse in top races

They don't all have the same constitution. Plus horses not at their peak can still win. Take Porta Fortuna today for example, still wins but reportedly not at peak fitness. Rosallion on the other hand didn't. As with so much in this game, as a punter it's educated guesswork. Politics comes into it as well, and it's a protective blanket for trainers to claim a horse will come on for its first outing of the season.

I accept that Dr G but my point is that AO'B is less likely to bother trying to get them ready for early season targets now. He used to send them to 2000/1000G without a run and win. Now he doesn't seem to push it. CoT was an exception as I think they think they may have had a Triple Crown horse but of course.........If they come to hand , fine.

Rosallion did not have the fitness against the winner and 2nd; Port Fortuna beat little today. I believe the real test is Royal Ascot where owners even the lads at Coolmore worship most.

Lake Victoria should not have gone to America otherwise she'd have been fit for Newmarket. I think with Fairy Godmother sidelined, and the potential of Bedtime Story fully exposed the former had had to take her chance at Newmarket despite a big question mark about her fitness.

ps has AIDEN definetly ruled out the oaks for lv ?

Auguste Rodin and Luxembourg were rushed to get to Newmarket. Both failed. The latter sustained an injury which caused him to miss his main target ie The Derby at Epsom. Maybe AOB has learned his lesson eg The Lion In Winter.

But, I think The Lion In Winter being their No 1 3yr old has to go to Epsom to redeem/justify his stud fee., all being well; the French Derby is not the Epsom Derby. Also, The Lion In Winter only won The Acomb, not The Dewhurst - a much more prestigious and creditable race commercially.

You miss the point of the examples, both were anticipated to need the run, both drifted to comparatively enticing prices, one won, the other was beat.

Rosallion wins everyone says can't believe it was allowed to win at that price, Porta Fortuna loses, well the market told the story, it wasn't ready. It's just another variable to contend with.

Anmaat the same, double figures on here, suggesting it wouldn't be ready but still nearly took the race easily.

I suspect it was quite common to assume if a runner was in a big G1/classic first time out it would be ready, but especially with AOB, it's far from the case.

Ready to win that is, not just ready to race ;)

AOB made it very clear LV might not make Newmarket two weeks prior. I think it was a miracle or AOB was being disrespectful to the runners at Newmarket.

I think Anmaat ran as well as he'd, and to potential; Economics underperformed (ground perhaps) when Anmaat won at Ascot, with Los Angeles a back number on soft ground; Calandagan possibly needs further too, and being a gelding his races are restricted somewhat. But, today Keane was clearly injudicious on White Birch.

AOB has not made that public. However, LV needs to cement today's win in The Coronation Stakes prior. She might go for the Irish Oaks (if The Arc is on the agenda) as AOB has many intended candidates for the Epsom Oaks, I reckon.