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wingerwanger
22 May 25 09:08
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Date Joined: 30 Aug 07
| Topic/replies: 452 | Blogger: wingerwanger's blog
https://www.simonnott.co.uk/blog-racing/it-worked-in-the-80s-6-backing-six-year-old-top-weights-for-the-wages
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Report top2rated May 22, 2025 9:42 AM BST
'5yo & younger clear top weighted' th way to go nowadays...

United Kingdom
Flat
Handicap
Years:  2021 - 2025 inc.
Pos Weights (excluding Claim):  Clear Top


    Horse Age         Bets          Wins          Win%          P/L(SP)          P/L(BF)    
    2        408        70        17.16%        -129.7        -87.7   
    3        1936        387        19.99%        -96.11        202.07   
    4        2381        416        17.47%        -225.2        80.01   
    5        1414        246        17.40%        -16.26        170.33   
    6        954        167        17.51%        -4.65        132.63   
    7        585        67        11.45%        -152.31        -36.68   
    8        347        41        11.82%        -73.09        -33.32   
    9        186        11        5.91%        -121.63        -112.85   
    10        69        9        13.04%        -23.37        -20.56   
    11        24        2        8.33%        -5.25        3.61   
    12        7        1        14.29%        -3.25        -3.21   
    13        1        0        0.00%        -1        -1   


£1 Level stakes BSP

6yo & older -£71.38

5yo & under +364.71
Report spyker May 22, 2025 9:57 AM BST
There used to be a stat banded around that 1/3 hcps won by 1,2,3 and 2/3rd of those by 1, pre exchange.
Report top2rated May 22, 2025 10:19 AM BST
Since 2012, Racecard Numbers 1, 2 & 3 have won 38.51% of all UK Flat Handicaps.

Racecard Number 1 is the winningmost, contributing 15.21% to the overall percentage stated above.
Report spyker May 22, 2025 10:23 AM BST
Thats about right then by my very poor maths
Report top2rated May 22, 2025 11:22 AM BST
No.3 a non-runner in the 3.17 at Haydock today's qualifiers are...

    Time        Horse        Course   
    Today 2.17        The Crafty Mole        Haydock (LH)   
    Today 2.17        Fleur De Mer (IRE)        Haydock (LH)   
    Today 2.17        Lunar Power (IRE)        Haydock (LH)   
    Today 2.25        Cherry Cola        Yarmouth (LH)   
    Today 2.25        Principessa (IRE)        Yarmouth (LH)   
    Today 2.25        Raqisa        Yarmouth (LH)   
    Today 2.55        Risen Again (FR)        Yarmouth (LH)   
    Today 2.55        Pursuit Of Truth (IRE)        Yarmouth (LH)   
    Today 2.55        Con Te Partiro        Yarmouth (LH)   
    Today 3.17        March To The Band        Haydock (Str)   
    Today 3.17        Captain Parma (IRE)        Haydock (Str)   
    Today 3.47        Blue Day        Haydock (Str)   
    Today 3.47        Archduke Ferdinand (IRE)        Haydock (Str)   
    Today 3.47        Harvanna        Haydock (Str)   
    Today 4.25        Capital Guarantee (IRE)        Yarmouth (Str)   
    Today 4.25        Giant        Yarmouth (Str)   
    Today 4.25        Giorgio M (IRE)        Yarmouth (Str)   
    Today 5.00        Visibility (IRE)        Yarmouth (Str)   
    Today 5.00        Anglo Saxson (IRE)        Yarmouth (Str)   
    Today 5.00        Artificer (IRE)        Yarmouth (Str)   
    Today 5.22        Mystical Storm        Haydock (LH)   
    Today 5.22        High On Hope        Haydock (LH)   
    Today 5.22        Miss Collada        Haydock (LH)   
Report formoftheace May 22, 2025 11:49 AM BST
I have Archduke as the banker of the day tbh…
Report The Management May 22, 2025 12:53 PM BST
I'm usually done with low grade 2YO's by the time the Handicaps start but "they" always used to say back the top-weight in a Nursery (no idea who "they" were but you used to hear it all the time from pundits) - your figures seem to prove that was very unprofitable for the years shown. Shocked
Report TameTheTiger May 22, 2025 1:10 PM BST
£1 Level stakes BSP

6yo & older -£71.38

5yo & under +364.71


Surely 3yo-6yo is the way to go ? +£584
Report TameTheTiger May 22, 2025 1:19 PM BST
also it has to be clear top weight, if 2 or more are joint top weight,then its no bet. so no bets on the list posted by top2rated qualify
Report TameTheTiger May 22, 2025 1:21 PM BST
oh, ive listened to a bit more of the video, so i might be wrong on that Blush
Report Hushwing. May 22, 2025 1:58 PM BST
can anybody do the stats for clear topweight apprentice ridden with weight off. that would get interesting i reckon
Report top2rated May 22, 2025 2:32 PM BST
Since 2008...

Report top2rated May 22, 2025 2:32 PM BST
Since 2008...

Report wondersobright May 22, 2025 2:45 PM BST
since 2021 top weights have done pretty well in flat hcaps
previous decade not so good
apprentice angle you won't win nowadays imo
top weights in nurseries almost certain no
Report wondersobright May 22, 2025 2:46 PM BST
horses reach maturity age 5 so there is logic in betting them age 5/6
Report wondersobright May 22, 2025 2:48 PM BST
different topic but saw it in the aston park the other day
a fully grown & matured 6yo beating up 4yos pre-summer quite a big edge
Report formoftheace May 22, 2025 2:50 PM BST
Haggas and Elsworth wouldn’t disagree with that wonder….
Report wondersobright May 22, 2025 2:58 PM BST
yes
Report formoftheace May 22, 2025 2:59 PM BST
Coolmore would probably die at the thought…..
Report wondersobright May 22, 2025 3:05 PM BST
too much money in stallions
Report formoftheace May 22, 2025 3:12 PM BST
3 and into the shed…..not really sportspeople imv……
Report formoftheace May 22, 2025 3:14 PM BST
Look at the basher boy last night with his horse at Kempton…..hugs,pats and giving water….
Report TameTheTiger May 23, 2025 9:48 AM BST
1 winner from 23 (15/8)

backing numbers 5,6 and 7 in all 8 races produced a profit of 37.8 pts at ISP.

5  9/1
5 14/1
6 12/1
7  5/1
5  9/2
7  6/1
1 15/8
6 10/3
Report top2rated May 23, 2025 10:04 AM BST
Correction:

backing numbers 5,6 and 7 in all 8 races produced a profit of 38.83 pts at ISP.
Report wingerwanger May 23, 2025 12:25 PM BST
Thanks for all the replies.
Report ericster May 23, 2025 12:52 PM BST
There are quite a few threads about systems around right now, hmm!
Always worth a look I suppose.
And this one, as crazy as it might seem, well ?
I've know armchair punters who back their so called  "lucky number sevens" on  Saturday afternoons with some success, and I think "wtf?"
No real knowledge and understanding or even the remotest interest in form or handicapping and yet, there they go, having their little punts and collecting.

There is an argument to be made for those "lucky number sevens ".
A kind of logic, I think.
At a glance one might easily conclude that number seven:
1.. is not top weight, might even be getting a fair bit from those in the top six.
And 2..at number seven a horse might have SOME ability, because at number seven, it's not down with the no-hopers.
I think about that and it's where I shall looking next.

I'm not a fan of the nags but the footie is dwindling now so, why not ?

Interesting, wanger.
Report formoftheace May 23, 2025 1:22 PM BST
Remember the late Clive Holt had a system,so many points for a win and place etc….C&D….add them up and play…
Report TameTheTiger May 23, 2025 6:22 PM BST
CORRECTION +36.83.

7TH race there are 3 losers.
Report The Knight May 23, 2025 10:36 PM BST
I have been punting on the horses since I was 11 in 1971.

Over the past twenty years I have identified a lot of 'systems' that go on to have been just a blip in the statistics.

Best advice for anyone who finds a 'system' is to play it up and then cut out when it goes pear shaped because, sadly, it will. If it doesn't, the bookies and the public will soon cotton on and the prices will shrink to make it unviable anyway....
Report starkeycars May 23, 2025 10:39 PM BST
The knight I totally agree systems are like snakes and ladders it  goes well for Certain time you think that you have found the holy grail and then …back to square one Sad
Report Facts May 24, 2025 10:39 AM BST
'Always Back Winners' by Stewart Simpson focus on top weights at certain distances/ tracks.Good read.
Report raspberrybottom May 24, 2025 10:53 AM BST
The Knight makes a good point - if you spot something "system-wise" don't paper trade, get straight on it!

It'll soon disappear.

Might resurrect my "Throw Enough Darts On Friday and Saturday" system for June, July & August.
Has been good fun in the past.Happy
Report OilyWragg May 24, 2025 11:15 AM BST
Go for it raspberrybottom Happy
Report Celtic warrior May 25, 2025 12:53 PM BST
This will be from Stewart Simpson's very amusing book of 35 years ago. Top weights on tight turning tracks.
Report howard May 25, 2025 2:09 PM BST
1990 ?  Was earlier than that. Early eighties would be my guess
Report howard May 25, 2025 2:10 PM BST
u must have had the reprint celtic  Grin
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