A winning handicap top weight system

'5yo & younger clear top weighted' th way to go nowadays...

United Kingdom

Flat

Handicap

Years:  2021 - 2025 inc.

Pos Weights (excluding Claim):  Clear Top

Horse Age	Bets	Wins	Win%	P/L(SP)	P/L(BF)
2	408	70	17.16%	-129.7	-87.7
3	1936	387	19.99%	-96.11	202.07
4	2381	416	17.47%	-225.2	80.01
5	1414	246	17.40%	-16.26	170.33
6	954	167	17.51%	-4.65	132.63
7	585	67	11.45%	-152.31	-36.68
8	347	41	11.82%	-73.09	-33.32
9	186	11	5.91%	-121.63	-112.85
10	69	9	13.04%	-23.37	-20.56
11	24	2	8.33%	-5.25	3.61
12	7	1	14.29%	-3.25	-3.21
13	1	0	0.00%	-1	-1

£1 Level stakes BSP

6yo & older -£71.38

5yo & under +364.71

There used to be a stat banded around that 1/3 hcps won by 1,2,3 and 2/3rd of those by 1, pre exchange.

Since 2012, Racecard Numbers 1, 2 & 3 have won 38.51% of all UK Flat Handicaps.

Racecard Number 1 is the winningmost, contributing 15.21% to the overall percentage stated above.

Thats about right then by my very poor maths

No.3 a non-runner in the 3.17 at Haydock ∴ today's qualifiers are...

Time	Horse	Course
Today 2.17	The Crafty Mole	Haydock (LH)
Today 2.17	Fleur De Mer (IRE)	Haydock (LH)
Today 2.17	Lunar Power (IRE)	Haydock (LH)
Today 2.25	Cherry Cola	Yarmouth (LH)
Today 2.25	Principessa (IRE)	Yarmouth (LH)
Today 2.25	Raqisa	Yarmouth (LH)
Today 2.55	Risen Again (FR)	Yarmouth (LH)
Today 2.55	Pursuit Of Truth (IRE)	Yarmouth (LH)
Today 2.55	Con Te Partiro	Yarmouth (LH)
Today 3.17	March To The Band	Haydock (Str)
Today 3.17	Captain Parma (IRE)	Haydock (Str)
Today 3.47	Blue Day	Haydock (Str)
Today 3.47	Archduke Ferdinand (IRE)	Haydock (Str)
Today 3.47	Harvanna	Haydock (Str)
Today 4.25	Capital Guarantee (IRE)	Yarmouth (Str)
Today 4.25	Giant	Yarmouth (Str)
Today 4.25	Giorgio M (IRE)	Yarmouth (Str)
Today 5.00	Visibility (IRE)	Yarmouth (Str)
Today 5.00	Anglo Saxson (IRE)	Yarmouth (Str)
Today 5.00	Artificer (IRE)	Yarmouth (Str)
Today 5.22	Mystical Storm	Haydock (LH)
Today 5.22	High On Hope	Haydock (LH)
Today 5.22	Miss Collada	Haydock (LH)

I have Archduke as the banker of the day tbh…

I'm usually done with low grade 2YO's by the time the Handicaps start but "they" always used to say back the top-weight in a Nursery (no idea who "they" were but you used to hear it all the time from pundits) - your figures seem to prove that was very unprofitable for the years shown.

£1 Level stakes BSP

6yo & older -£71.38

5yo & under +364.71


Surely 3yo-6yo is the way to go ? +£584

also it has to be clear top weight, if 2 or more are joint top weight,then its no bet. so no bets on the list posted by top2rated qualify

oh, ive listened to a bit more of the video, so i might be wrong on that

can anybody do the stats for clear topweight apprentice ridden with weight off. that would get interesting i reckon

Since 2008...

Since 2008...

since 2021 top weights have done pretty well in flat hcaps
previous decade not so good
apprentice angle you won't win nowadays imo
top weights in nurseries almost certain no

horses reach maturity age 5 so there is logic in betting them age 5/6

different topic but saw it in the aston park the other day
a fully grown & matured 6yo beating up 4yos pre-summer quite a big edge

Haggas and Elsworth wouldn’t disagree with that wonder….

yes

Coolmore would probably die at the thought…..

too much money in stallions

3 and into the shed…..not really sportspeople imv……

Look at the basher boy last night with his horse at Kempton…..hugs,pats and giving water….

1 winner from 23 (15/8)

backing numbers 5,6 and 7 in all 8 races produced a profit of 37.8 pts at ISP.

5  9/1
5 14/1
6 12/1
7  5/1
5  9/2
7  6/1
1 15/8
6 10/3

Correction:

backing numbers 5,6 and 7 in all 8 races produced a profit of 38.83 pts at ISP.

Thanks for all the replies.

There are quite a few threads about systems around right now, hmm!
Always worth a look I suppose.
And this one, as crazy as it might seem, well ?
I've know armchair punters who back their so called  "lucky number sevens" on  Saturday afternoons with some success, and I think "wtf?"
No real knowledge and understanding or even the remotest interest in form or handicapping and yet, there they go, having their little punts and collecting.

There is an argument to be made for those "lucky number sevens ".
A kind of logic, I think.
At a glance one might easily conclude that number seven:
1.. is not top weight, might even be getting a fair bit from those in the top six.
And 2..at number seven a horse might have SOME ability, because at number seven, it's not down with the no-hopers.
I think about that and it's where I shall looking next.

I'm not a fan of the nags but the footie is dwindling now so, why not ?

Interesting, wanger.

Remember the late Clive Holt had a system,so many points for a win and place etc….C&D….add them up and play…

CORRECTION +36.83.

7TH race there are 3 losers.

I have been punting on the horses since I was 11 in 1971.

Over the past twenty years I have identified a lot of 'systems' that go on to have been just a blip in the statistics.

Best advice for anyone who finds a 'system' is to play it up and then cut out when it goes pear shaped because, sadly, it will. If it doesn't, the bookies and the public will soon cotton on and the prices will shrink to make it unviable anyway....

The knight I totally agree systems are like snakes and ladders it  goes well for Certain time you think that you have found the holy grail and then …back to square one

'Always Back Winners' by Stewart Simpson focus on top weights at certain distances/ tracks.Good read.

The Knight makes a good point - if you spot something "system-wise" don't paper trade, get straight on it!

It'll soon disappear.

Might resurrect my "Throw Enough Darts On Friday and Saturday" system for June, July & August.
Has been good fun in the past.

Go for it raspberrybottom

This will be from Stewart Simpson's very amusing book of 35 years ago. Top weights on tight turning tracks.

1990 ?  Was earlier than that. Early eighties would be my guess

u must have had the reprint celtic