Brighterdaysahead drift..

Would you be in a rush to back it off its last diabolical run?

Looks like no one wants to back her.

I backed Jade at 2/1 last night. If I hadn't I'd probably leave the race alone at the prices.

Wants SOFTER ground

A good price against this lot. Her trainer had Teahupoo the other day.

Seems a cracking price to me - she's got 14 pounds in hand of Jade and 20+ the others

Could be Cheltenham just doesnt suit her, as we saw with Final Demand yesterday.

She's never performed to her potential at Cheltenham. It's a cracking price against this level of opposition. Will partake if Mr Gosden wins his 1st 2000G at Newsmarket

May 3, 2025 -- 3:10PM, Jack_Kray wrote:

Seems a cracking price to me - she's got 14 pounds in hand of Jade and 20+ the othersCould be Cheltenham just doesnt suit her, as we saw with Final Demand yesterday.

Don't worry Cheltenham will suit Final Demand the next two years, all being well with the horse.

STUFFED
Only turd
SLOW ground needed!!!

at least everyone who wanted in Elliot yard
GOT THE FOOKING LOT
even grade ones are now rancid worthy of practices seen in the past on FLAPPING TRACKs

Gary O'Brien gets part of it right by saying betting told the story the 2nd half should be him and others asking for the names involved laying a 3,s on shot for every penny they had

Ruby had serious doubts earlier saying the Elliott stable were very downbeat about her chances, whereas Mullins thought his horse was working very well, better than before Cheltenham. One on the up, the other regressing for the season.

Hanging all the way round, nothing in the tank

Too many quality horse running like drains at this meeting - best to avoid in the future

Fact to File, The Yellow Clay, CH, and now this one. Probably more as well.

under performing fair enough that's racing
but only those closest,in the no,connections,etc would  lay the life out of a 3,s on shot 24,hrs before the race
if you weren't in the no,why would anyone lay a horse with 14lb in hand for their lives in a grade one,
instead of laying the life out of it connections shouldn't have ran it,but hey in this game when there's easy money to be made the cheats can let it pass

14lbs in hand on its best form 1st time poster.
Its run at Cheltenham where if drifted like a barge was appalling with a 40L turn around with Winter Fog and barely got across the line.
It took a leap of faith to back today

But not to lay it !

When Constitution Hill won the supreme he drifted heavily before the off, subsequently lapped the field of course. This week he was pummelled in the market and ran like a drain.

It's obvious but the market tends to reflect confidence/lack of confidence from the yard. The best yards normally get it right, but not always. And sometimes there's no good explanation why a horse drifts, as per CH before the supreme.

Human nature isn't it, we remember the ones where the market got it right, less so wrong, as it conforms to our expectation.

it will be a a short list in history of racing  bordering on zero where in a grade one  small field grade one chapionship race a horse from top yd drifts from 3,s on out to 6 to 4 and bigger on the machine in 12 hrs before the race

even worse than the betting angles,as it was cocking his neck/head from the 1st yd,the yd either
ran a horse the best in their yard they new wasn't right,risking its future
or the jock purposely strangled it for betting purposes in a grade one

usually the antepost market reflects the situation ie yard confidence before day of race in a grade 1.

I seem to recall City Of Troy was a big drifter before the Derby last year. Granted, not a small field but a highly liquid market. He zipped home so nobody flags it up.

Point here is that the market reflected the lack of confidence of the yard. Nothing untoward, and they could have been surprised.

don't get you
you think there's nothing wrong in the yd/conections of either laying the life out of a 3,s on shot or backing the 2nd fav and probably both
if that was the case and most people thought the same don't think me and 1000,s of others would ever have a bet in horse racing again
what's the point in owners/conections been banned from betting their horse to lose if you think nothing untoward went on ?

unless you came down in the last shower, you'll know that the market reflects yard expectation. inevitably. but they aren't always right, hence Willie Mullins getting a 100-1 winner at Cheltenham (for example). Some of my biggest wins have come from backing drifters.

if you think people in the yd/connections  are laying a 3,s on shot at 6 to 4 +, in a gradfe one championship thinking its going to win /run its race,its you who came down in the last shower

How much did you lay it for? If the market told you it couldn't win, that was free money.

for the millionth time never laid a horse in my life but it certainly stopped me even thinking of having a bet in the race,if that's happening in grade ones 2nd biggesty race on a Saturday,wont be long before punters walk away and just like I've never put a leg over a horse,not laying it doesn't stop me having an opinion
imagine Japan.hong Kong ,India where in a grade one 2 of the best pun dits booby and Gary obriewn arte confirdently telling viewer for 15 mins that this fav deffo wont be winning and another 15 mins post race telling them told you so,people would be getting strung up

in the old days ,pro punters would be telling you to double,treble,quadruple your bet,now their telling you not to risk a single penny on a 3,s on shot in a grade one

It's just an example of confirmation bias - drifters win quite regularly - shorteners get stuffed quite regular.

People notice when a drifter runs badly and they notice when a steamer lands the odds - somebody usually starts a "They knew" thread - but when it's the other way around you'll rarely see a thread about it.

Last Week at Chelmsford a horse that was 3/1 2nd fav on the RP tissue prices won at BFSP of 34.

Nobody posted about it.

Righty ho, so you've convinced yourself that a horse taking a big chunk out of the market can't win, but refused to take advantage of other punters involved in the race. How altruistic of you

The horse should never have run. The horse was not right post Cheltenham; the betting spoke volume eg from 1/3 out to 6/4 and beyond.

she's been massively overated that's the bottom line. she beat winter fog at xmas state man didn't turn up.

2 of the grate titans of tedium - 1stimepoofter and unbearable on top form with their trademark tripe

only different dumb needed for the tricast

you can the Irish pundit Johnny to your list as he,s just said on RUK in all the time he,s been racing he,s never seen betting like it in a grade one ,but apparently its an everyday occurrence nothing to see here lads on here

people got carried away with the horses Neville Hotels Hurdle win at Leopardstown

it was a 2 horse race and the ride given to the only other possible winner, State Man (P Townend), was an utter disgrace 

backed up by subsequent form

especially Ruby if I remember correctly

winter fog looked like winning a grade one a furlong out this week ,not exactly the rabbit he,s been portrayed

Neville Hotels Hurdle
Fog - Towards rear, never a factor

did WM not want his to finish in the same postcode as Brighterdays that day.  certainly looked like it. 

also ran Mystical Power 12/1, tailed off

"winter fog looked like winning a grade one a furlong out this week ,not exactly the rabbit he,s been portrayed"     Anyone with a clue would say unplaced over 3 miles

May 4, 2025 -- 1:39PM, 1st time poster wrote:

you can the Irish pundit Johnny to your list as he,s just said on RUK in all the time he,s been racing he,s never seen betting like it in a grade one ,but apparently its an everyday occurrence nothing to see here lads on here

White Birch and LA today (group 2, granted)

New pants needed for the White Birch layers