Stock market boys on the horse forum

April 7, 2025 12:13

Brits with gardens   'stop mowing lawns'  till September ends  amid 'national butterfly crisis ...

Crazy Town

Starmer's job tax is far more damaging, domestically. Of course the global equities shake up is a gift to him.

Strange that as the ftse was rising until orange baby made is moronic announcement.

which ftse index are you referencing?

FTSE 100 HTH

ftse 100 is a pseudo global fund, the domestic economy and legislation has limited impact on it.

hth

I see, walks away slowly and carefully.

It's fair enough :). The 250 is considered to be more reflective, but even that is significantly impacted by global trade. Where Labour's changes really hurt is sole traders and SME's, not the big public entities. Up to 6 million of them.

FTSE (100) down 2%+
S&P500 in the States floating around the same price it opened.
Maybe the worst is over....
...for now.

It seems with Trumpy's administration we are lurching from one cataclysmic announcement to the next. Each one causing the markets to turn to their brown trousers.

So we may not be out of the woods yet.

There are just too many intangibles at the moment to know wether this is just a short term correction or wether this is going to be the norm for a year or so.

BBC NEWS  " Trump threatens China with ADDITIONAL 50% TARIFF "

Trump " China withdraw the 34 % tariff or we add 50% on 9/4/25 "

the boy is a total clown.....he is a bankrupt 6 times over, and is totally irrational....thing is his base of support are skint and have always been skint so are right behind him.

Asia goes down before the US.  They will all be unemployed and possibly starving.

i dont think so...lol...China is way ahead of most of the world......you need to keep up with what is going on...their cities are simply incredible....the orange moron will eventually have to back down......

ive just switched on usa news...trump doesnt know how global trade works....He is insane as well as daft as a brush...He wants a zero trade deficit with every country in the world......"idiot" does not even begin to explain this man.

Cities ? LOL. Reserve currency and  NATO  a bit more important.    Western countries won't be backing China over US even if you would like them to.

If I were Trump I would ease off on the Chinese. They definitely have the ammunition to cause the US major problems.

Push the big red button and do us all a favour Don.

lol it’s proper gambling this game, shares, I never sell on a downturn because it will suddenly spike again and unless your on shares every minute of the day you will miss it, I sold quite a few a few months ago to have cash available to buy bitcoin again but I missed it, but that’s just a bit of luck and I’m going to go in big shortly, entain is a small target as it’s a crazy price £500 and went up a whole £2.00 today after losing a few hundred lol, micro strategy shares bitcoin are holding up better but still down in this market but they have previously flown I have made great profits previously, the gamble now is when to get in before the spike up, china seems the key and all the other countries want to talk, but this could be that trump wants bitcoin to prosper as it’s held quite well this latest trump crash, but again we are in unknown territory, this is a new downturn like no other, done by one man and I still think he is doing right putting America first, just wish starmer would put us first, good luck if  high stakes pressure gambling is your game as ive said before, if your a good gambler youl be used to losing and downturns and not to to panic and don’t keep looking at the screens when on a downturn, be ready be brave and pray

It is clear the USA has been receiving a raw deal in tariffs from the rest of the world; US goods have higher tariffs imposed on them. If more and people in the world will to boycott consumer products eg electrical/electronic, clothes/shoes/etc, and motor/heavy industrial machinery from China then this tariff war will cease very soon.

I believe this tariff war is to manage/stifle the ever-increasing economic might of China. Economic might = military supremacy = blatant bullying by china eg S China Sea, Taiwan, etc.

gross profit on an iPhone sold in the US has gone from 32% to 42% in 5 years

Excellent write up from Know-All.

I like the Trump/bitcoin angle.
Another variable to introduce into this tangled web..

"I believe this tariff war is to manage/stifle the ever-increasing economic might of China. Economic might = military supremacy = blatant bullying by china eg S China Sea, Taiwan, etc".     Correct. The real reason is to destroy China. Them ruling the world is not on.

China vows to 'fight to the end'. Can you imagine the run on pearls if Trump said that.

The wilful ignorance of people is astonishing, even in 2025 when they believe that the actual long term solution is for America to consume everything using printed money and debt (often paper owned by their enemies), produced by 'developing countries' under slave labour conditions and state sponsorship.

if their was one person in the world doing ok out of a stockmarkets crash you new it wouldn't be buffet,soreos etc doing ok ,we all new itt would be CIDER from the Betfair forum

america has 4 x the size population of  Vietnam ,Vietnam average wage is about $4,000 a yr,and these FOOKING loonies in the Whitehouse want a level trade deficit with Vietnam, THEIR ALL FOOOKING BARKING

Cider • March 8, 2025 9:30 PM GMT

the conventional view is don't try to time the market, for most people I'd say it's the correct advice.

but, it is possible to cut out all the noise, stand back and take a dispassionate view.

the risk free rate remains above inflation, everywhere you look there's risks in the short term, with little scope to gain.

3 headwinds that exist right now. huge indebtedness of western economies (ergo cost of gvnt borrowing), geo politics and the ai bubble. add into the mix, hyper overvaluation of US equities. it's a question of when, not if in my view.

where many people lose out when 'timing' the market is that they have no patience. they move to lower risk options, see equities hitting new peaks and go back in at a higher price. I've been purchasing high yielding ITs for almost two years now, in that time the asset value has been flat or even declining in some cases. but I am confident that they are strong ling term plays. now I've moved to a predominately risk free position, I will sit it out until the time is right to move my chips. I'm looking for 30-40% discounts, but that judgment can only be confidently made when the circumstances have evolved.

Wow

You're right, I'm doing ok 1sty, not sure about others. fwiw I bought some discounted equities yesterday, but still predominately cash position.

Absolutely horrendous. I am all in the stock market with all my savings and contributory pensions. I have lost £80k in 2 weeks. Makes me sick in the stomach.

Everything i have said in support of trump in the past can be scratched. He is a financially illiterate bully.

My £868 2025 horse racing profit doesnt scratch the surface in comparison

I always think how strange I can lose £100 on horses during the day and be mad with myself, I can lose a few k on stock market on a day and it doesn't really bother me. I suppose I know at my advanced age that stock markets go up and down for reasons that have nothing to do with me but horse racing losses are down to me.

I suppose one difference is that some stock trading can he 'held' until it returns back up, and you don't lose - can't do that when you've just sp'nked 100 quid on a horse that fell etc.

But if you are a short term day (or shorter) trader, and taking profit and losses, then it's basically the same as betting on a horse race!

Unless you're changing your position, looking at daily movements in isolation is madness. But of course, the stock market is click bait, Trump is clickbait so it will flood the narrative.

This is before today's bounce, and a tiny bit down over the last year, but still +60% over 5.

We've been on the biggest bull in history, so personally I feel we'll see further drawdown. None of the short term risks I alluded to have dissipated.

Day trading bears no relation to long term investment or pension funds etc invested. My old mate Terry Ramsden turned to day trading many years ago and gave two tips, Dragon Oil for the long(ish) term and Circle Oil for a get in and get out, he was right both times but he had people who were advising him from the inside.

As a long term investor it should always be the case not to react too quickly for events such as we have seen unless you are coming to the end of the long term, even then a panic loss prevention stance could be costly, most pension funds managers etc will stand their ground imo.

About 90% of people with DC work pension pots have no idea what they are invested in. Most of the default options are too cautious, AND still assume the employee will purchase an annuity upon retiring. Which they almost certainly won't do.

Anyone getting near retiring would be best served buying an annuity, SIPP or otherwise depending on how that market has reacted, solely for peace of mind in knowing their future income for nearly 4 years imvho?

a joint annuity hammers your monthly income and if you die after 5 yrs the spouse left gets nothing, so wheres the peace of mind ?
I could have turned my pot in to an  annuity this yr happy enough with the income for a single annuity ,but if something happens to me the pension dies with you
joint annuity,index linked, are to penal for those with pots of say 200,000 and below

linkers are still pretty expensive. it's probably ok to have a mix of fixed income and drawdown, but the reality is that most people take the money nowadays. Especially if there are inheritance considerations.

Markets are slightly up, but we have trump raising chinas payment to 100%, if that happens then there is further chaos to come imo, it’s high stakes he is playing but he has the upper hand for now but that could and can change, I’m holding fire looking more often to see how the markets are reacting as it’s about to go one way or the other, it’s unchartered territory we are entering, I’m in a sipp so can buy and sell my pension money until I need some of it

a sipp that's already been crystalized and in drawdown ?

I can't say it's unchartered territory, the world deliberately cratered the economy but 5 years ago. Far far more implications than a change/realignment of trading policies. We pretty much shut down commercial air travel, just one example.

Yeah, you can draw down what you like, did it a few years ago when annuity's were not good, I’d maybe had a different opinion if It was today, although you can leave the surplus in a will to whom you want, if you take out a annuity and a month later you die its lost unless you leave it to you partner or a percentage to your partner, but those annuity rates shown above are slashed, so it’s why I choose a sipp as I like the buying and selling and if I get it wrong I can only blame myself it was the only way to buy bitcoin through stocks at the time

Stocks and share have been a disaster  for me I can remember  getting  into the dot coms sadly  everyone  was getting out of them .Had shares in signet thanks Gerald.
Ronnie.

Sounds like you just gambled with a pension pot Know All so hardly sounds like you are concerned for anyone other than yourself? Like most who do not take steps to provide for partners or spouses e.g life insurance etc you are gambling with the financial future of someone else if not just yourself to think about?

Gamblers gamble for themselves always have done, nothings changed

Gamblers gamble for themselves always have done, nothings changed

Mine was 9/11. I got out asap.

know all - pensions do not usually form part of your estate so you cannot "leave the surplus in a will to whom you want". You have to nominate a beneficiary with your pension provider. Payments are tax free as they do not come under inheritance tax at the moment but i understand this is most likely to change in April 2027 (cheers Rachel) .

Gamblers are a selfish group tbh…

Buying a house could be looked on as a gamble but it has been a very good investment for 95% of those who own one. A few have been too close to an eroding sea cliff or a river that floods but most have easily beaten inflation and the stock markets. I am old enough to remember a Cotswold stone cottage selling for £50 in around 1950. Now north of a £million with a few improvements and extensions. My first one cost £2600 in 1969. Capital appreciation worth more than all of my earnings from work since then which is bizarre but true for many. The data on the FTSE conveniently leaves out inflation and the companies that drop out of the 100.

I noticed the bbc news yesterday day saying the markets were up what they don’t tell you is it’s up like 2% which is fk all, that’s to calm the markets after the falls previous days, they just leave out the prime details the way bbc do, it’s part of goverment so we get no truth, I predicted right that markets would go further down with this 100% china tariff and down over night and now, and further turmoil will come so I’m holding steady, entain has just lost the gains it made over the last 2 days, worrying times as it affects us all, looks like there is another agenda playing here, it’s not just tariffs now

In Bonds There is Truth.

The Bond market has spoken.

Bonds are the intelligent partner of shares; shares are for speculators and insider-dealers.

I wouldnt be wholly trusting in the property market either if the truth be told.

I should think the main reason for the boom in property prices over the last couple of decades is the fact that successive governments have failed to invest in affordable housing.
Population has increased, for whatever reason. Housing supply has not matched that. So prices have gone up.

We have a political system that relies on the votes of home owners in a handful of marginal constituencies. The best way to keep these punters happy is to keep them reassured and happy while the house price market keeps going up.

Homelessness and child poverty are at worrying levels. Hardly any young people in our big cities can get a foot on the property ladder either. But these play second fiddle to the political need for increasing house prices.

Clearly in the current envinronment, property investment if you can afford it, trumps(no pun intended) playing the markets by a long way.

But as we have seen these last few weeks the current political systems are being dismantled in the States. Dissatisfaction across Europe may lead to something similar here. So buyer beware...

Gamblers gamble for themselves

Gamblers are a selfish group tbh…

I'd actually argue it's wider than 'gamblers' - people use money for themselves is more accurate assessment IMO.

Current events being a great way to evidence that really.

Money is a selfish concept, completely.

Property is overhaul a great investment but some properties are not even back at the 2007 peak when prices were high, London and highly sought after regions excluded, interest rates is the killer for some I remember 16% interest and 2% increase in one day lol, interest rate increase cure inflation and been banging on the rates need to double to cure this inflation, interest decisions is supposed to be free from government intervention but that’s not true, they want you to believe it is, controls over holiday let’s is coming and second homes, taxes and levy's will hit hard to release more housing from that market imo

I inherited some gold Sovereigns a couple of months ago. Post Trump they've gone up from a sell to

dealer price of £480 to £527 each. I'm wondering if I should sell now or hang on a bit longer.

Just checked again. Up to £540  !!

hang on a LOT longer would be my advice

Biggest shakedown could be debt. Which I alluded to in my March post. What if the US writes off its paper held by China lol. I don't think it will get that radical, the pressure is on the Fed to wind up the money printers though

China's finance ministry has announced an 84% tariff on all goods imported from the US.

The ministry says that these new charges will take effect from 12:01 CST (05:00 BST) on 10 April.

200% from the Don ?

200 .300,400 doesn't make any difference the tariffs ran out of rope with China at 34%,54 to 74 in total, the rest is just handbags,Chinese market went green overnight despite $104 tariffs, of course soya bean farmers in USA will be going out of business and wanting bailouts from TRUMP
so that's
bailouts
trillion on defensive spending next to nothing on tariffs as he has 0% dealls or imports slow down
USA debt repayments rising
THE DON just can't stop winninng
expect him to start a war or something big in next week,no Chinese,EU,Canadian,OZZ, planes rushing to washington

In his first comments since China announced it will raise its levy on US imports to 84%, US President Donald Trump is encouraging companies to move to the US.

Writing on social media platform Truth Social, the US president says: "This is a GREAT time to move your COMPANY into the United States of America."

"ZERO TARIFFS, and almost immediate Electrical/Energy hook ups and approvals. No Environmental Delays. DON’T WAIT, DO IT NOW!", he adds.

I guess they are going to need plenty of migrants to do these jobs as the lard arse Americans won’t do them

They don't pay people supremely well to stay at home, and fund their transport like we do

Will China move some of their important companies to the USA? Zero tariff is a massive carrot for any Chinese firm.

only if they can pay chinese wages

ELON MUSK were told has the most brilliant mind in the world ,don't they think that ELON and 1000,s of brilliant business minds before him looked at onshoring their businesses in to USA ,using only American made parts, THERES BILLIONS OF $ reasons why they didn't,but dumbo maga morons no better

I can help USA out with this one I no a country who owns 90% of the Earth's rare minerals the Americans will need for their onshoring

Thought the whole concept of business,free markets,supply and demand etc.

Was less government interference,

Apple,and in England Dyson,choose to make their products in Asia,to be competitive and make more money.

Tariffs are just a form of fixed markets,cartels,closed shops.the opposite of free markets.

Trump blinks first

Apple and Tesla have factories in China. The tariffs will affect them too. Any Chinese behemoths in America? Zilch. The Chinese have been anticipating the tariff argument and have planned accordingly.

President Trump need the 3rd world economies on his side, not alienating them. This tariff war is predominantly between USA and China, and a lesser extent EU; the American public are slow to cotton on, understand and realise their country cannot live on borrowed money to finance their indulgence in consumerism products of which are mainly from China making China the next world superpower, and money lender to the world.

In the future the rest of the world could be asked to kowtow to China, and dance to their tune in the same manner as Hong Kong, soon Taiwan, and the S China Sea ie the waters of Brunei, Malaysia, Vietnam, the Philippines and Indonesia; China has no sovereignty at all over the S China Sea.

I suggest you look at the news

While the free market world has been busy,being free markets for the last 20/30.
China was busy,building up raw material supply lines,and buying key companies,they bought A.I.M in Oxford,cos their processors where in every phone.

It’s like medieval war,surround the castle and starve them out.
China can now surround the west and starve them out.

That is a myth, Japan used to be the world’s supplier of cheap goods where are they now? Even China is trying to transition away from them

But the crazy thing is that the countries that have the highest wages (UK and USA) have the lowest unemployment rate and the highest number of job vacancies. China is still a Communist country. No Chinese "company" can move abroad without approval from its Government.

Come on now sage, you know that the UK 'unemployment rate' is completely fake. The 'economically inactive' adults of working age is a much more accurate figure, them see what happens if part time jobs weren't subsidised by the taxpayer.

Economically inactive rate between 1971-2025 averaged 23%, last yearly data was 22% so failing to see your point here.

There's no way the methodology to calculate that in 2025 is consistent with 1971. Where's the actual data?

Tradingeconomics.com, but I guess you’ll find a reason for not believing it.

Japan did produce affordable consumer goods but good quality eg electrical/electronic goods, automobiles, etc. Japan is also a democracy with a much smaller but aging population.

China is not a democracy but with a massive young hard working population; Chinese goods are cheap eg Temu, Shein, etc, and do not last. The Chinese are renowned for producing fakes in huge quantities sanctioned by the Chinese government.

Japan was humiliated in the 2nd world war. However, China has aspiration of world supremacy economically and militarily.

Since the ww2.

You’re technically starting from a blank page.to re build a system,society etc.

So the 50 s was all nationalisation,as people demanded stuff after fighting a war,the spoils.

Then that lead to the 60s ,a boom of freedoms ,etc.

In the 70s all these workers demanded more pay,better conditions,strong unions.

80s ,thatcher broke this,and privatised everything,making people fend for themselves.

90s,was the boom of this new privatisation,with a good chancellor,brown,using the money to good use.

Then austerity,because of dot com crash,9/11,other countries like China becoming bigger.

This lead to in work benefits,which millions get,these people aren’t inactive,but are on benefits.plus the usual 22% inactive.plus more pensioners wanting money and health care.

To keep feeding all this,it’s like a Ponzi scheme,you need new entrants coming in to pay for it,but no one wants migrants,protectionism is the new way,trump.

Capitalism is coming to the end of its shelf life.

Tradingeconomics.com, but I guess you’ll find a reason for not believing it.


Not really. If someone quotes statistics without citing the source, I like to interrogate it myself.

well I hope most of you guys holding stocks kept calm  took advantage of that opportunity!

either allow a professional fund manager to manage your money or invest in companies for the long haul. Too late for me to move to another strategy now but I am taking profits each year at the crazy low CGT allowance of £3000 whether you made that gain over 40 years or 40 minutes. I shall be cashing in £3000 profit in the next few days and the same every year until I am out of the market. Rachael's next target will be managed ISAs no doubt and I will be in the same hole again with some hefty capital gains in managed ISA funds. The recent falls are painful but only take us back to 18 months ago. However they have barely kept pace with inflation for 20 years and taxing gains over 20 years is a tax on inflation which is outrageous.

Cider09 Apr 25 21:14Joined: 29 Aug 02 | Topic/replies: 61,634 | Blogger: Cider's blog
There's no way the methodology to calculate that in 2025 is consistent with 1971

I would guess the methodology is pretty similar and put simply i'd imagine the "economically inactive" figure from the 1970's consisted mostly of mothers & housewives. If you remember, before Thatcher destroyed the fibre of society and family, a man could earn enough to support a family and have his children brought up properly by a parent.

Obviously hardly anything is consistent with 1971. 'Fake' non productive jobs didn't really exist then. I had a dig around but the ONS is so hard to navigate, it seems that the figure now is calculated using sampling of survey data.

Multiple governments have manipulated the 'unemployment' figures, they are watered down by moving people on to different benefits and 'studying', and wasting on the public purse.

The figure I'd like to compare in the number of adults of working age, and the number/proportion of them employed productively in the private sector.

Cider10 Apr 25 10:03Joined: 29 Aug 02 | Topic/replies: 61,643 | Blogger: Cider's blog
The figure I'd like to compare in the number of adults of working age, and the number/proportion of them employed productively in the private sector.

What would be the point of that if you don't consider or acknowledge the massive change in the role of women in society and in the workplace during that period?

The structure of society has changed beyond all recognition since 1971, particularly for women.

It's not black or white, but a lot of the non productive jobs are taken up by women.

All the drama up at Brum, the people who sort it out eventually and finally clear up and collect all the refuse are unlikely to be women. If you eventually get the pot holes filled up on your local roads, unlikely to be women doing the filling. If Labour (lol) build the 1.5 million homes in this parliament they've promised, it won't be women laying the bricks.

And the fcukwits who’ve been refusing to collect the rubbish for months are non-productive men.

My understanding is that 'they' are trying to make being bin men an equivalent job to the 'easier/softer' roles that women tend to gravitate towards, in pay terms anyway. And that's the root of the dispute.

Dived in to entain and sold late today to claw some profit back as it’s very uncertain markets still, not got into bitcoin yet microstrategy as that still moving around a lot but longer term should be ok, but it’s quick in and out at the moment, yes I know she says it a lot

1st time poster Joined: 25 Dec 05
Replies: 5671308 Apr 25 12:12 
if their was one person in the world doing ok out of a stockmarkets crash you new it wouldn't be buffet,soreos etc doing ok ,we all new itt would be CIDER from the Betfair forum LaughLaughLaughLaugh

Crash ?

1st time poster 08 Apr 25 12:15 
america has 4 x the size population of  Vietnam ,Vietnam average wage is about $4,000 a yr,and these FOOKING loonies in the Whitehouse want a level trade deficit with Vietnam, THEIR ALL FOOOKING BARKING

1st time poster 08 Apr 25 17:51 
a joint annuity hammers your monthly income and if you die after 5 yrs the spouse left gets nothing, so wheres the peace of mind ?
I could have turned my pot in to an  annuity this yr happy enough with the income for a single annuity ,but if something happens to me the pension dies with you
joint annuity,index linked, are to penal for those with pots of say 200,000 and below

1st time poster Joined: 25 Dec 05
Replies: 5671308 Apr 25 17:59 
a sipp that's already been crystalized and in drawdown ?

1st time poster Joined: 25 Dec 05
Replies: 5671309 Apr 25 14:19 
200 .300,400 doesn't make any difference the tariffs ran out of rope with China at 34%,54 to 74 in total, the rest is just handbags,Chinese market went green overnight despite $104 tariffs, of course soya bean farmers in USA will be going out of business and wanting bailouts from TRUMP
so that's

bailouts

trillion on defensive spending next to nothing on tariffs as he has 0% dealls or imports slow down
USA debt repayments rising
THE DON just can't stop winninng
expect him to start a war or something big in next week,no Chinese,EU,Canadian,OZZ, planes rushing to washington

1st time poster Joined: 25 Dec 05
Replies: 5671309 Apr 25 16:56 
ELON MUSK were told has the most brilliant mind in the world ,don't they think that ELON and 1000,s of brilliant business minds before him looked at onshoring their businesses in to USA ,using only American made parts, THERES BILLIONS OF $ reasons why they didn't,but dumbo maga morons no better
1st time poster 09 Apr 25 16:57 
I can help USA out with this one I no a country who owns 90% of the Earth's rare minerals the Americans will need for their onshoring LaughLaughLaugh



Show me the money ?

xx

Time for a big one month pause. Its now clear that its usa v china not usa v whole world

My portfolio is now about 5% down for the last 12 months, which is wholly manageable. I think the markets will recover myself. Like during covid, its Dont panic mr manwearing time.

It does give investors an important reminder though. Always keep at least one years expenditure in cash, especially if you can get 4% return on it as of now.thats allows you to ride out inevitable periodic corrections.

fwiw I'm moving [almost] everything into sterling mmf. I sense things are about to get pretty messy. debt roost coming chickens to home mountain. there is no ultimately safe hiding place, mmf is about as good as it gets imho

reading about footballers in parliament sayingt they were groomed in  to investing in to get rich quick  schemes by investor,s and it wasn't about TAX AVOIDANCE,Danny,Murphy,Brian Deane to name 2, MURPNY who ended up with a 2.5 mill tax bill for investing in a FILM PRODUCING TAX AVOIDANCE SCHEME,he actually borrowed a MILLION QUID from coutts bank to invest in the scheme,
if he didn't think it was a tax avoidance scheme he must have a real love of FILMS to borrow a million to invest in the, must have been gutted when these film producers never produced a single film, DO YOU THINK HE EVER ASKED ANYONE WHAT WERE THE NAME OF THE FILMS HE WAS INVESTING IN
surprised coutts lent him the money must have thought he was good for the repayments hit him  with a nice high borrowing rates and had a giggle between them as he left the room

its better than it was 3 or 4 weeks ago ,bought more in the dip but not as much as id have liked.

Entain up to 919 today with news about bet mgm record profits and more expected, strange game as in April they were 500, so it’s the gambling question cash in or hold, forecasts say 1100 and talks of a bid but that’s just speculation, still price way down from the peak of the draft kings bid think that was 2100 or about