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05 Feb 25
09:45
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Date Joined:
05 Oct 11
Both entered at Newbury on Saturday.
I argued before the race that it was a mistake to up Regents Stroll in trip in the Challow, and the think the trainer now agrees. If that Challow run hasn't taken a toll I think there could still be plenty of upside at the minimum trip. A line through Good And Clever puts him about a stone off the best. He has been nibbled at prices for the Supreme, and I think he could well be the best of the home team. Yes, the favourite will take a huge amount of beating, and Workahead also looked very promising, but not sure about the depth of the rest. Nicholls has pulled a rabbit out of the hat in a Supreme before and perhaps he has a chance of doing that again?
Kientzheim is a strange one. She is fourth favourite for the Mares'. All of those above her have been confined to racing against their own sex, but if she goes on Saturday, then her two runs will have been against the boys. Why? Is Henderson trying his best to get her beat? I think she would have to find at least a stone on the Kempton run to trouble an in-form Regents Stroll. If she managed to do that then she should be the new favourite for the Cheltenham race.
Either way if both turn up we could have a very interesting/informative race.
I argued before the race that it was a mistake to up Regents Stroll in trip in the Challow, and the think the trainer now agrees. If that Challow run hasn't taken a toll I think there could still be plenty of upside at the minimum trip. A line through Good And Clever puts him about a stone off the best. He has been nibbled at prices for the Supreme, and I think he could well be the best of the home team. Yes, the favourite will take a huge amount of beating, and Workahead also looked very promising, but not sure about the depth of the rest. Nicholls has pulled a rabbit out of the hat in a Supreme before and perhaps he has a chance of doing that again?
Kientzheim is a strange one. She is fourth favourite for the Mares'. All of those above her have been confined to racing against their own sex, but if she goes on Saturday, then her two runs will have been against the boys. Why? Is Henderson trying his best to get her beat? I think she would have to find at least a stone on the Kempton run to trouble an in-form Regents Stroll. If she managed to do that then she should be the new favourite for the Cheltenham race.
Either way if both turn up we could have a very interesting/informative race.
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I notice that Unibet are much bigger on Kientzheim for the Mares' Novice. Do they know something that the others don't? Such as the horse not turning up? Clearly that is the obvious target, but Henderson hasn't once confirmed that.
Thanks, you would have thought that Newbury would have been ideal. It looks as if I got it wrong and Nicholls hasn't learnt his lesson as Exeter over a longer distance is clearly a test of stamina which at this stage the horse doesn't need. He may well struggle to get home again. Last time I read Nicholls he was talking about sending him forward. You can't really achieve that at Exeter. It's also right handed so a pretty poor preparation for the spring festivals. Is it that important that they run the seemingly much inferior Tutti Quanti at Newbury? It does make it much easier for Kientzheim.
Its 2m at Exeter if he runs in the listed novice so we will see
That's more promising, although I would still have preferred Newbury. It could be a very long slog up that Exeter straight. I had only looked at the opening race over the longer distance. I would be disappointed if he couldn't beat the Tizzard horse.
Kientzheim very short. I did Rubber Ball, but fear the ground may well be too soft. Assuming she settles, disappointing if the favourite can't get the job done.
Kientzheim jumped a little high at Kempton and Nico got her unsighted at the third last , still she never saw the stick and will take some beating tomorrow and hopefully in the Mares Novice .
Yes, that's the hope. Unfortunately, I haven't had too much luck with this stable in that race. I was on Marie's Rock at 25/1 before she was supported down to favourite, and then didn't make the race. Possibly even worse I was on Epatante at double figures. Can you imagine a Champion Hurdle winner that doesn't even place?
Looks as if she won't make it either. That was poor. Looks as if they haven't taught her much on the jumping front. Three out I thought she was still going to win, but De Boinville just sat and let the winner go by. He has ended giving up very easily. The ground shouldn't have been any issue. It's in the back of my mind that they never had any aspiration to go to Cheltenham, possibly favouring Khrisma.
Can see Regents Stroll getting turned over tmrw too, Alexei and Dodger Long v decent.
I left both Kientzheim and Rubber Ball alone. It surprised me that I managed to cash out most of my Cheltenham bets on Kientzheim. That was something of a bonus.
I have backed Regent's Stroll in the hope Nicholls has got the horse back after the Challow. Had he not gone in that direction he would long odds on tomorrow.
I have backed Regent's Stroll in the hope Nicholls has got the horse back after the Challow. Had he not gone in that direction he would long odds on tomorrow.
Regent's Stroll very poor. This looked a regressive step from his debut so maybe the Challow has bottomed him? The winner was always travelling all over him.
Not sure if there was any need for Cobden to continue forcing his horse to stay with the winner a long way out when he could just as easily have sat a length off in second.
But how do you know how good the winner is? First time he has run in a decent race and he won fairly easily. I backed Alexei who had looked useful but beaten 15 lengths.
I don't know how good the winner is, but I think if he was exceptional they would have some lofty targets. He is 7 after all. The impression I got was that they thought he would struggle to have enough speed. Yet he has travelled all over the favourite. It wasn't just the bare form of the favourite. He raced awkwardly, and did nothing in front. He didn't jump fluently. More and more it seems Cobden has turned himself into a bridle jock. Is he carrying an injury? I am sure I remember him gaining ground at obstacles, but now he hardly ever tries to do that. Once overtaken you can pretty much bank on it being game over. Interesting to see what he does in the Kingwell as I don't think that upped in class, Burdett Road can just sit on the front end. It's a shame he can't jump like East India Dock as he really needs to stretch a field.
Just noticed that Twiston-davies is jocked up on Burdett Road in the Kingwell. Is he just subbing for Cobden, or will he keep the ride? He must win on Saturday, but his only chance of placing in a Champion Hurdle would be if some of the front three don't turn up.
I might be completely wrong but doesn't Regent Stroll just look slow and needs a trip. When it won its bumper it was being niggled along from a long way out and again at Exeter Cobden was at the horse from about 3/4 of a mile out. Jumps well, just is slow imo
He didn't look that slow on hurdling debut, and the form has stacked up with the the runs of Good And Clever and Peacenik. He never looked likely in the Challow even though he was held up to finish, and he was making no ground on the winner at Exeter, a stamina track. I think he has gone backwards, and just looks awkward.
Form of that end of November novice at Newbury really strong, maybe there's just some low level bug been around for couple of months in Nicholls yard? Horses not falling off a cliff in their races, causing the stable to shut down, .... but not quite right from December onwards, so many of them.
As for Burdett Rd STD, i assume Cobden is at Ascot for Pic D'Orhy.
As for Burdett Rd STD, i assume Cobden is at Ascot for Pic D'Orhy.
Looking at its breeding, the mare hasn't really bred anything that goes on. Didtheyleaveyououtto was a decent bumper horse and then became disappointing and a bit tripless. The full brother Are U Wise To That, again started out promising and has flattened out and now runs over 3 miles. The other 4 have best RPR of 122, 114, 113 and 91.
You have to question the Challow form every year. It seems that plenty of horses just don't go on from it. Bill Joyce already well beaten. Got to be a concern for The New Lion at such a short price. I quite fancy Wendigo for the Albert Bartlett, but you have to wonder why he is a relatively big price against horses who have seemingly achieved less. He should really dot up at Wetherby tomorrow, but I'm not so sure.
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