Lossiemouth V Constitution Hill Kempton....

its a new one to me that a jockey spends a race with his hands motionless..resting on a horses flanks whilst the horse is flat out..

pmsl

Watched it several time sand her ears were flat back from start to finish, she could not have gone any quicker!! hth

Btw his legs were on the horses flanks, not his arms!!

after 1 minute of the race lossie was 3L down jumping slickly and lobbing along nicely...

if ewe say otherwise you int got a clue.

I watched race on Racing UK. This is ITV.
Is Holies wrong with his commentary? Exactly as I saw it.

https://youtu.be/dCDNDpIj8Vk?si=SD31x-Nkv-QzzGtN

I collected twice Shafter and put up my opinion long before CH and SG ran, did you?

If you think Lossiemouth jumped the first slickly then you need an eye test

listen to Ruby halfway through race (Mullins biggest fanboy) ''you only want to be on CH, NDB is slowing him down while Townend cant"
Lossiemouth ran an exceptional race to get so close to CH but NDB didnt have to throw anywhere near the kitchen sink at a horse returning from a year out

all entitled to opinions but Mullins, Townend, Walsh, Hoiles etc all saying the same thing Lossiemouth never looked happy at any stage.

that's the problem these days people reacting to what RATPACK/booby say in comms ,they might be right in this case but RATPACK from the off is bedwetting if a hot fav has tickled a piece of birch,booby if a jock has moved his hands, there's horse out there who jocks/connections no they cant win if their not off the bridle/jock shovelling on the coal 5 f out,especially on the flat, sir Gino 7 out of 10 jump at 1st yesterday in a novice  resulting in a ratpack bedwetting session before 6 mins later same ratpack proclaiming possible new ARKLE etc

i watched the replay yest with 3 others..we all disagreed with hoiles..townend was happy to jump off 3-4L down..after landing over the 1st he barely moved his hands..at the 3rd hurdle it was still 3-4L down bobbing along nicely,no concern from townend wotsoever...he never once till 3 out niggled it wotsover.

He never said jumped the first slickly, read it again, horse travelled well, no panic from jockey at all

the worst you,d say about lossie was she didn't jump like an old time ch hurdler compared to CH,but you can jump scruffy these days and still win a ch  hud, think the days of make a mistake and your gone are long gone,state man isn't a fluent jumper and which is perfectly possible if CH,s hurdling technique means he takes a pearler one day, booby and co will start saying Nico shoulder get him to pop a few instead of flying every hurdle

to quote booby regards CH hurdling its
ALL DUCK OR NO DINNER

N-east Correspondent 28 Dec 24 10:49 
If you think Lossiemouth jumped the first slickly then you need an eye test

it jumped the 1st a tiny bit high but perfectly fine..hoiles then said lossiemouth was outpaced and niggled by townend..absolute nonsense..it was still 3-4L down as it was from the start and townend never even moved his hands...where was it niggled like? nonsense.

bouvr,dair had the same flat fluent technique and didn't he take a pearler or make a bad mistake at one down the back in the champion hurdle

Believe your eyes not your ears

don't think Townsend is ever going to get off state man to ride lossie in ch hurdle anyway

can argue till the cows come home ,it wont get ya anywhere ,result will stay the same conshill backers paid out lossie backers done dough ,its history move on !

so hoiles is correct foyles? lossie was niggled after 1st?

N-east Correspondent28 Dec 24 10:49Joined: 14 Apr 04 | Topic/replies: 7,473 | Blogger: N-east Correspondent's blog
If you think Lossiemouth jumped the first slickly then you need an eye test

listen to Ruby halfway through race (Mullins biggest fanboy) ''you only want to be on CH, NDB is slowing him down while Townend cant"
Lossiemouth ran an exceptional race to get so close to CH but NDB didnt have to throw anywhere near the kitchen sink at a horse returning from a year out

all entitled to opinions but Mullins, Townend, Walsh, Hoiles etc all saying the same thing Lossiemouth never looked happy at any stage.
       In a Nutshell ffs.

Perfect summing up N.E

How long are Townend's arms iyo acey? Have you ever managed to have your arms resting on a horses flanks whilst holding the reins, shafter seems to think that was the case btw?

Anybody who knows Horseracing could see see she was never happy Glen but you have more chance of seeing a Black Ghost than rico admitting he was wrong.

yeh but in a different race BOOBY would see a jock having to slow a horse down as a negative ,wasting energy etc,etc

as said conshill looked more at home with the pace ,always going that more easily than lossie  to my eyes .

by all accounts they went very quick ,much faster than last years Xmas hurdle ,the mare to my eyes wasn't being niggled after or before the 1st but she was being taken out of her comfort zone by the pace and  the quick jumping of conshill ,as the race progressed she started to warm up but could not match the class and speed of conshill she was staying on but the race was won before the last . could she reverse the form in the champion ?  the winner is entitled to improve after a years lay off whereas the mare had race fitness on her side .

Mullins only 3 Winners from the last 47 Runners.

"Is Holies wrong with his commentary?"   Two years ago on ITV Hoiles said the Nunthorpe was named after a village near Middlesbrough. ( rather than the area of York adjacent to the racecourse )

I'd like to see these two meet again in the Aintree hurdle Apr 3rd, 2m 4f gr. 1.
I think it's unlikely, but he's vulnerable at that trip.

175 v 160 (with allowance). She travelled fine but he just travelled better as you would expect if back to form. Against other mares it has always been a case of Townend pressing the button when required but this was a different ballgame. She wasn't flat and she wasn't flat out either, she just ran into a different class of horse who will always beat her if anywhere near his best.
Mullins first interview " Paul said she was flat as a pancake". Mullins second interview " [i] wasn't happy from the moment the tape went up".
Ignore these post-race comments from jockeys and trainers. If Man City were beaten 2-0 by Liverpool and Guardiola said straight after that his team was a bit flat today would that really make any bloody difference.

If u owned him he wouldn't run then. Neither would I when he's the GOAT at the trip of champions.

"Ignore these post-race comments from jockeys and trainers".   They want retain financial value in their horses.  The more people believe them the better as far as they are concerned.

I was born in nunthorpe in BORO .very posh for the area but I don't tell people it was in a little council estate burried in the middle of all the posh houses

Regarding Lossiemouth Mr Mullins stated: "Lossiemouth just got taken off her feet. She's not run over that trip at that pace since the Triumph Hurdle. It was a funeral pace in the Hatton's Grace". This is in contrast to "running a bit flat".

So if WM had put all that effort in getting her to settle , why send her to a sharp track on quickish ground ?

I wonder if there are financial incentives of winning the Mares Hurdle each year it looks like Elliot is sending his horse who beat the reigning Champion Hurdle champion State Man recently to the Mares. Mullins is very keen to win it and wonder if he would prefer Lossiemouth in that race as he already has State Man for the big one.

Lossiemouth may as well take on Constitution Hill as Hendo said he was hard on him the last 3 weeks and wants to see how he comes out of it before more plans.
If he doesn’t come out of it well the race will be for the taking. Though he beat a sluggish looking Lossiemouth by two and a half lengths it is a much diminished distance than we are used to seeing him win by. Nico seemd really keen to big up improvement to come to scare Mullins off re-opposing imo.

What we have learned is how very secretive Hendo is as he admitted they were doing really early gallops with Sir Gino so nobody saw them. Bookies friend is Hendo he wouldn’t give punters free air.

impossible123 28 Dec 24 17:08 
Regarding Lossiemouth Mr Mullins stated: "Lossiemouth just got taken off her feet.

4L behind after the 1st..4L behind at halfway..meanwhile townend sitting still and never moved his hands.

tell mr mullins rico sez ewe tarking absolute pony.

I agree 'paulo47'. Maybe Mr Mullins was taken-in by Paddy Brennan and the bookie stooges that Constitution Hill would be easy picking. I think Mr Mullins screwed up not running her at Cheltenham last March when Constitution Hill was on the said line.

Mullins said: "Lossiemouth just got taken off her feet. She hasn't run over that trip at that pace since the Triumph Hurdle and we've been trying to settle her since then, because she ran away with Paul [Townend] at the top of the Hill in the Triumph. She hasn't been going that pace over the first mile and a half and she will be sharper next time.

Should we listen to Wille or Dangleflaps?

GETTTT INNNN!!!

But will that next time be in the Champion Hurdle or the Mares?

She is patently better than she showed in the race and can easily make up the two and a half lengths imo. Just wondering what they were up to though. Do they want to go Mares and Richie the Champion?

To my eyes, Lossiemouth was never comfortable at any stage.
I do not buy the argument that she could not cope with the pace set by Burdett Road either. As Lump Sum coped with it just fine, and I am confident she is a much faster horse than him.
This was not her true running.

She jumped the first too big, Townend niggled her away from it, he was never happy on her, she wasn't clean at several hurdles and lost ground and had to be niggled away  often, Townend closed mid race because the pace slackened, the proximity to the winner is a credit to her but it raises the question as to how much is CH inferior to what he used to be because he should have won further, I don't believe he had much left late on and in another 100 yards she would have been closer still.

Her jumping suffered going a stride quicker than she was used too but the proximity to him at the end raises questions about him, Henderson will be leaning heavily on the improvement to come factor, in the days and weeks to come when the race is analysed to death I think the nuts and bolts of his actual performance will be downgraded a bit.

Burdett road is the fly in the ointment. I’m on Cons Hill antepost and think I’ve enough in hand but is BR really 30lbs better than last year ? Common sense says Cons Hill was closer to 162 max vrs 175.

Burdett Road is not a reliable yardstick. After looking very promising early doors he has disappointed. Lossiemouth should easily be able to go a pace he can. Wondering if the teaching Lossiemouth to settle over 2m could have been an important factor in the race.

brandyontherocks 28 Dec 24 17:52 
To my eyes, Lossiemouth was never comfortable at any stage.

duffy 28 Dec 24 17:54 
She jumped the first too big, Townend niggled her away from it, he was never happy on her

townend was sat happily lobbing along in rear..his hands never moved from her back til 3 out..please watch it back and tell me at what time of the race he never looked happy?

Really interesting interview especially that they have planned for this for 2 years (inferring the Champion Hurdle?)

It looks like Constitution Hill will be taking the whole spotlight for the Champion in the run up whatever happens with Lossiemouth and wherever she ends up.

https://www.racingtv.com/watch/on-demand/interviews/642250

You would think State Man would return to the Irish Champion Hurdle and Lossiemouth go for the International at Cheltenham for course and distance experience we shall see.

Interesting point will be who Townend chooses after those two races if she does go Champion Hurdle.

Could it be mind games with Hendo for the Champion to help State Man and with Elliot for the Mares to keep him guessing on opposition as well.

The plan for 2 years suggests not.

cudnt ewe poast this all in one fred ydc?

Why would Henderson be worried about mind games when he's got the best 2M Hurdler
seen for ages.

Lossiemouth is going to Champion not Mares. Ricci doesn’t care if she wins or loses just wants to give her a shot. Heard it directly from the horses mouth.

Things can change but don’t think Boxing Day will put him off. Think Cons Hill will have her measure though.

"Lossiemouth is going to Champion not Mares".   Hope she does and as many good ones as possible. Waste of time though. But the reason I want them is CH rating.  CH  better than Night Nurse and I would like to see it in ratings.

"She is patently better than she showed in the race and can easily make up the two and a half lengths imo".  you have got to be fecking joking.

Hibore… the market on here shows Lossiemouth is most likely for the Mares so far. The market talks where others don’t normally but it is to very small amounts so may not apply here. Either the trainer and jockey are being ignored re Lossiemouth’s run or they know more than we do.

I think she is the one to beat Constitution Hill who is obviously on the decline based on his last run. We will see a much improved State Man today since last time which will push Lossie back further in peoples minds for the Champion. Constitution Hill is way too short for the race at odds on.

"We'll stick to the plan for the moment. She'll run in the International at Cheltenham or in the Irish Champion Hurdle but we'll get another run into her before any decisions are made.
"I know she has enough speed and pace, she has the pedigree for it, but we've been settling her, and all of her runs have been around two-and-a-half miles, without the early pace. It was a funeral pace in the Hatton's Grace, so when a horse is used to that, she just got caught that way. She'll have learned a lot and we'll have her sharper again.
"I loved the way she finished her race. A lot of people passed the comment that it was the first time Constitution Hill got four slaps of the persuader – he might never have had one before. I know she had the run beforehand and he hadn't but I'm not that disappointed. I took the fact she ran him the whole way to the line as not too bad, given she fell out the back of the television [early on]."

Can’t see CH rating reaching heights before setbacks tbh. Hopefully improve few pounds from Kempton but think 165’s is more than acceptable and enough to see off Lossiemouth and Stateman. Interesting one is if Brightdaysahead keeps improving ( I’m desperate for her to run in mares as antepost all at 10/1-33/1). But if she wins today which is not out of the realms of possibility will Gordon think it’s worth a shot ?

Just wish CH and Lossiemouth had beaten Burdett further as 8 lengths. Was 42lbs ahead before Greatwood now maybe 10-12lbs.

I think State Man will make a statement for the Champion today and your Mares bets will be fine.

The outcome of the CH race shows far more favour to Lossiemouth imo she can improve a ton on that. Can CH or is he declining now?

Anyone agree with pro gambler Alan Potts 4 C's ?  Confidence Capital Calculation   The 4th one " by far the most important "  Cynicism.

If Brighter did win it will make a Lossie Champion run more likely but expecting State Man to improve a lot on his last run.

In fact for you a State Man win today would be best as it will encourage Lossie away from the Mares and Brighter towards it.

Hold on i explained that wrong ha ha

Eric, the markets on here are ignorant and formed on expectations rather than information. If Brighterdays win today by 6 lengths what happens to market then ? Do both Lossiemouth and Brighterdays both go Champion ? Mullins will run at least one in Champion. Lossiemouth would be No 1 again.

Just pointing out things move very quickly this time of year.

Agree. What Brighterdays to run really well but not too well

In fact for you an impressive State Man win today would not be best as it will encourage Lossie towards the Mares however good in that it will encourage Brighter towards it also.

For you it’s all about where Lossie goes.

I’m pretty sure Ricci will stick to his word. She isn’t guaranteed to beat Brighterdays anyway and 2.5 miles looks her best trip after being beaten in last years mares novice and canter at Aintree over extra half mile.

Only 5lbs between them on official figs as well. No gimme.

A Brighter win would be best for Lossie fans re the Champion Hurdle and could be for you also as Elliot may decide it is too hot and still go to the Mares in top form.

Lossie much more suited to the stiff 2 miles at Cheltenham than 2 miles at Kempton for sure. If i was you i would want to avoid her running against me.

Of course. I’d much prefer to be 1/3 on the day than 15/8 with Lossiemouth in the race

Lossiemouth was closer to CH than when Stateman ran against him. Not seen much pointing that out ?

Exactly. I think he wanted to see a wound up Constitution Hill to know what he was up against for Cheltenham and whether he would be likely to find the improvement in Lossie to beat him there. That in turn could help decide the running plans for the Festival for Lossie.


paulo47 28 Dec 24 17:10 Joined: 28 Dec 09 | Topic/replies: 1,215 | Blogger: paulo47's blog
So if WM had put all that effort in getting her to settle , why send her to a sharp track on quickish ground ?

I was also asking myself the same question re Ballyburn but same answer he found out Bally wouldn’t beat Sir Gino in an Arkle even with improvement so now his plans for Cheltenham re the Arkle are clear.

Guessing Bally may miss the Festival or go Browns Advisory though reckon the former.

I’m at Henderson’s in couple of weeks so will get low down on Cons Hill and how he’s come out of race.

Good luck getting info from Hendo on that

https://m.attheraces.com/blogs/kevin-blake/27-December-2024/constitution's-win-makes-for-a-big-2025

Interesting piece from Blake analysing the Christmas Hurdle, Lossie had to run the first mile 85 lengths quicker than she did in the Hatton's Grace.

Brief synopsis, CH wasn't as good here as previous but isn't saying he won't be in future and the more sedate pace of the Champion Hurdle will be much more suitable for the mare and connections should be aiming her at that.

Merry Christmas Hibore!!!!!

Wtf happens now

duffy 26 Dec 24 16:21 
Let's throw another imponderable in there, what about if Brighterdaysahead does State Man in again and with the possible that Lossie is going mares Elliot after seeing some blood in the water says, fook it, we'll run in the Champion, get out in front and lay it down to em from the get go!!!!!

The thing you've got with the mares this year is that it is not going to be a gimme, it's not an easy option with one or the other of the big two in there to take the other on, so I would expect one or other to take the view that you'd just as well take the chance in the Champion itself as there are question marks there against the fav.


Go for it Gordon.

Duffy and lossiemouth LOOKING FORWARD TO THE MORE SEDATE PACE OF CH HURD,lets hope it,s less sedate than the one the current ch hurdler couldn't get within 25 lengths of at any point today

Oh my god. She is an absolute monster.
Gordon don’t show your hand  so I can lay some of both my 33/1 bets

All things being equal Townsend will be on Lossiemouth in Champion. Deffo.

Maybe that was Elliots way of getting Lossie away from the Mares who knows as it seems clear State Man wont win the Champion now

Both the mares should be in the Champion, now we will get the psycho babble for the next 3 months between the stables, will they won't they.

Just what I need to lay some 7/4 mares and 4/1 champion

IMO  Stateman ran flat. Lossiemouth ran flat out. CH would have sat on the bridal with those two Elliott horses today! Ive seen nothing to put me off backing CH in the champion as yet!!!

I guess Elliot took away the option of one possible winner in each of the Champion and Mares from the Mullins camp.

Brighter is unlikely to get to the line with those tactics in the Champion with CH and Lossiemouth sat in behind waiting.

Did State Man run like dog poo or Townend rode like dog poo? State Man did not seem to travel or jump with his usual fluency. A complete drubbing for the Mullins brigade over the X'mas period. All hands to the pump for DRF prior to Cheltenham, I'd imagine.

Otherwise, 2023 Hendo Cheltenham Festival could repeat itself for Mullins.

plenty mullins horses ran poor lately..the winner today was exceptional.. to win that far with the pace of the race..state man getting beat off a 66's chance surely tells ewe it wasnt its form.

plenty of Mullins prefer it heavy to gd to sft,they gallop on heavy at home

There was no panic in behind the front two because they thought that the front two were going too fast, Walsh was aghast after the race that she was able to keep going, KOK is a 144 rated horse and if he kept going all the way to the line you could question whether they had been given an easy lead but he was deploying the oxygen tent before they turned in and him beaten nearly 40 lengths highlights what type of performance the mare put up.

State Man has had it easy for a couple of years at home and sometimes abroad winning races with a telling turn of foot off of races run at a dawdle, now it's an end to end gallop set by a top quality grade 1 horse who can keep it up and State Man couldn't handle it.

If they dawdled round as usual State Man would probably look like he has always done and what his rating has been built on....one sharp turn of foot.

eric_morris 29 Dec 24 16:59 
Brighter is unlikely to get to the line with those tactics in the Champion with CH and Lossiemouth sat in behind waiting.

Or she buries them whilst they try to keep tabs on her, which IMO is what would happen, today's performance knocks the Christmas Hurdle into a cocked hat IMO.

Burdett Road form isn’t grade 1 however you try and play it. He’d been out with the washing today unless anyone can provide alternative thinking on a horse rated 130 two runs ago.

Lossiemouth in last January’s Unibet Hurdle at Cheltenham.

Is this really the same horse that ran in the Christmas Hurdle and never travelled at any stage?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SJ0n0oeyEFI

I actually think she will finish much better off a strong pace watching the International maybe Betterdaysahead pacemaker would provide that for Lossiemouth.

Makes sense the opposition will try to set a strong pace after Lossiemouth’s Christmas Hurdle run to try and beat her.

Lossiemouth a better horse at Cheltenham where it's 3/3 but I would expect a fully fit Constitution Hill to confirm the form with Lossiemouth making him fight a bit more this time.

I think Lossiemouth is a better horse over distances further than 2m. I understand she won The Triumph, but her 2m form was not spectacular eg beating Gala Marceau.