Premium Charge is dead

i definitely understand that jamee...

ta.

A very very good read, two or three points to clarify betfair (exchange) must be in serious trouble if they are resorting in trying to resuscitate the life back into the exchange with such a drastic measure , I can speak from knowing 5-6 ex major players on the exchange before the introduction of the premium charge and there is no way they will be back to using the exchange with the red tape involved now, its desperate measures from a desperate company,

my favoured option has ALWAYS been a straight 5% commission for EVERYONE...

everyone knows where they stand that way...

no doubt there would be winners and losers (as always)...

but by chri$t it would simplify things...

no doubt i'll be told i'm talking rubbish.

Yeah  originally the bottom line was you could be better than other punters WITHOUT  you being robbed and the losers left alone. Taking more money from winners was and is bad publicity imo.

It screams we don't want you to aspire to be a pro gambler.

..." 5-6 ex major players on the exchange before the introduction of the premium charge"   What do they do now ? Packed in sports betting ?

As previously cited, there are clear examples where liquidity could decline as a result of these changes.

Can anyone make a case for where liquidity increases through the Expert Fee because I can't?

I remember 20 plus years ago on here there was a good discussion without all the vitriol concerning the 5% deduction and imho it was discussed by better and more intelligent people than myself about the high claw back (commission) being taken by betfair and how it was disproportionate thus it would ultimately create a bad business model for the company, Before even matchbook or WBX were on the scene the consensus stated at that time a 1% or 0.5% on every bet whether it be a win or a lay would be advantageous in generating a larger turnover for both the customers and the owners of the company as it would simplify the whole exchange.
My opinion is there problems are deeper lying than the premium charge

It only has a negative reult from my point of view for me , personally. I have made a profit most years without using bots , gruss or any other programme . I have never paid the Premium charge, but under these rules I will . This year have been 44k up , that is now down to £15k , so I would have been charged for the weeks I was over 25k up. Quite simply  if I reach the 25k limit I will take my business elsewhere , until the year is out .

Yeah. I think the win/loss of all users probably lies on a normal curve with a very high percentage of players in the
plus or minus £20,000 a year area.
The ones on the win side will now pay only commission. I imagine BF have calculated that they create most of the liquidity
and that the huge players will absorb the changes due to their resilience and lack of another playground.

Howard no they are still sports betting (racing/football mostly) but into a market where they are very very very very small fish in a massive gold fish bowl. (if you read between the lines i hope thats enough information for you )

Where on earth will you take your business blunder?, given that this is the only viable exchange and traditional "bookmakers" won't allow anyone to win.

"My opinion is there problems are deeper lying than the premium charge"    As a very bright betting insider on Simon Notts interviews said the betfair exchange makes very little or no money and it's just kept to stop anyone else doing it and becoming no1. It's kept in storage until USA/China ever becomes big.  It's a very low profit business relative to turnover. And loads of small/medium punters want to beat a bookie anyway not lose to brighter punters than themselves.

Can anyone make a case for where liquidity increases through the Expert Fee because I can't?


----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

shaun...

i don't think it will make much difference either way tbh...

only gamechanger was getting the vast majority of states in the USA on board.

shaungoater 19 Dec 24 11:46 
As previously cited, there are clear examples where liquidity could decline as a result of these changes.

Can anyone make a case for where liquidity increases through the Expert Fee because I can't?


IR is house controlled money..last 3f theres only quids in ev box.Absolutely nothing will change this now.

u still making 20/30k a year though ?

Perhaps there’s more to it than meets the eye
It seems to add more fuel on anti gambling by encouraging more trading.

Maybe it’s changing tact following affordability, discouraging those who have huge swings in P/L as the deep loses don’t look good to handwringers.

Fuel on anti gambling fire

Would have hoped for a better vibe from a Fred titled 'Premium Charge is dead' tbh

shaungoater 19 Dec 24 11:46
As previously cited, there are clear examples where liquidity could decline as a result of these changes.

Can anyone make a case for where liquidity increases through the Expert Fee because I can't?


IR is house controlled money..last 3f theres only quids in ev box.Absolutely nothing will change this now.

I think you can safely say main aim is more business. But yeah won't some big backers and especially layers soon fall foul of these lose more than 2k a month checks ?

If you ask for £100 at 6/1+ for a fav that's being ridden won't u get matched to more than buttons ?

ewe will get the full £100 matched wonce its perceived as a 12/1 chance.

that's exactly what I'm saying.  Not all IR players know the pedigrees /stamina requirements / ability/temperament of horses.

Almost  exactly the same visuals can play out  very differently  if u know your horses.

blunder
19 Dec 24 11:48
Joined: 25 Jan 01
| Topic/replies: 740 | Blogger: blunder's blog
............................. Quite simply  if I reach the 25k limit I will take my business elsewhere , until the year is out .


You can't simply take a year off and think you start on zero , Blunder. They're basing all calculations on the last 52 ACTIVE weeks. Guess they've done that so any winners who left cos of PC will come back based on their old history and not a clean sheet.

You only need to bet on 1 market though Joe - for a week to be deemed active.

So to all intents and purposes you can go off grid and get a clean slate

It's not easy to figure out your Commission Generated or Commission Generated % of Gross P&L, either for last 12 months or for the last few years. But I reckon a lot of folks who have been on here for a decade or more (and especially those of us who are getting on for 25 years) are going to be surprised how low their numbers are now.

The Premium Charge page (before they took it down) would show your Commission Generated and as % of Gross P&L for the previous week and also lifetime. The lifetime figure was a pretty good guide of your average Commission Generated - that is until they changed the commission structure from variable with most people on 4-5% to 2% (was this around 2018?). It will also still be a pretty good guide if you've only been on BF for 6 years or less.

Now that the lifetime element has gone and everything is assessed on 2% flat rate commission (plus throw in the reduction in implied commission) the effective % of Gross P&L thresholds of 20% and 40% look really high (and maybe virtually irrelevant?).

no buffer is a downer ..if a 40% payer does £10,000 he's just done another £4,000 to top it off.

So the pariahs of the exchange, who were sucking money out of it and were considered to be no better than tax evaders so had to pay Premium Charge, are now suddenly "experts".

yes..Ty.

its not that simple mark

there were some, and im not talking ricardo, who were vacuuming money out because they had barmy advantages but the volume was such and their number comparatively small that it was partially masked and ignored because people were piling on to the platform thinking they would be i/r experts. almost everyone i met reckoned they were but they soon realised they were not

this was accelerated by the ones with the massive advantage who couldnt believe they were getting away with it but the numbers started to dwindle, understandably

notfair were too slow to act and they should have addressed the problem while there was still enough liquidity and players but they didnt. id have put a big delay on until a solution could be found, whatever that may be. maybe buying the pics. i dunno

the pc was always going to be a calamity, and most of those due to pay it didnt anyway. such was the earning power theyd pay 10% for another account

a big delay would only stop those with the quickest pics playing late on.

yes. it was suggested as a stop gap until a viable solution could be engineered. and those sharp minds were still at the helm in them days. too many were killing time until the got their share options

i suspect it could have been done and money wasnt a problem. i wish theyd acted. i dont want an advantage. if everyone was the same a significant number would still be here

Shame shafter cannot work it out Mitolo, been playing against those with a huge advantage for years he claims but still makes a profit?

youd have ironed it out with tomorrows paper

The drop-down Premium Charge link didn't "seem to exist" yesterday.
But it's back today.

They were a bit premature removing the link as it's still relevant until the 6th January according to their email.

This is probably Flutter responses to the use and publicity for Polymarket during the US election.

A wake up call to Flutter in the US market. Time to take the cobwebs off the exchange.

this is now based on gross profits, PC 40% band was based on net profits

PC was always on gross profit.. minus 50% of charges.

You are falling apart Shafter, even Komrade Howard exposed you about the Shafter account which I previously had long before him.

Give it up you sad sack loser?

cant fake a picture tobyliargarymugs..(ps,dont forget the 1.5 million on previous acc 2005>2009)  TY.

Rico, the way i read it if you have £25k gross profit which could theoretically mean little net profit you will be in the 20% net.

swiftynifty 19 Dec 24 22:00 
this is now based on gross profits, PC 40% band was based on net profits

PC now is taken from weeks gross profit..minus half your weeks charges.

Shame the meltdown continues Shafter if you still believe a photo takes two hours and then claiming somebody else took it when you told the forum it takes seconds!!!

yes, forget that, trying to see where the new payers will come from.

rampton or broadmoor.

Rico, on your portal why do you have no 'other charges'? I've got a minus figure, I'm guessing that must be that I benefitted from a fixed rate in the distant past?

Are you bringing them on Shafter?

Explain how you get the whole £19 from the Sally Ann to them and it will be the first thing you have ever done worthwhile in your miserable existence!! HTH

ROFL, as genuine as you gas bill YSDC!!!

Buy a bed and use it, if your arse bones are suffering too much send me the bill!! HTH

so you never paid 20% went straight to 40%?

my warwick hunt acc was closed in 2009..started this one in 2010..PC had already been implemented then so started from scratch so would have went the normal route 0 > 295k before going on 40%.

Strange that records show this account started in 2018 Shafter? Like I said Howard caught you out on the Shafter account, you must be the most inept conman of all time.............IMVHO!!

LOL

Dorme tranquilo cagino, ce vediamo doppo!!!

CagliariG 19 Dec 24 22:37 
Strange that records show this account started in 2018 Shafter?

pmsl..ewe are thicker than mandingo's c0ck.

in running liquidity levels are now at shocking levels imv...

for some races at least...

in all honesty i think the Expert Fee will become irrelevant for 99.99999% of us soon anyway coz there will be nowt to bet on horse racing in running wise...

end of the jumps season it'll be Betfair and jamee the only ones playing imv.

hibs c'mon man..theres £2 in some boxes last 2f.

CagliariG 19 Dec 24 22:30 
ROFL, as genuine as you gas bill YSDC!!!

Buy a bed and use it, if your arse bones are suffering too much send me the bill!! HTH

i'm finally beat Mr.Hunt..

it's time to start winding down for me now...

can't compete with drone folk and folk like jamee i'm afraid...

as the song says...

you've got to know when to fold it.

Oh you’ll be here a while yet hibb….

if i could do the Family Fortunes 'wrong answer' sound i would aceform.

Uhht, Uurrhh

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7XMW6Z_Oq38

here swifty.

Since they first posted the Expert Fee FAQs they've added a couple of new sections which help to clarify how it will work, in particular the 2nd new section shows what the starting Buffer will be.

https://support.betfair.com/app/answers/detail/expert-fee-faqs
.
My account is losing across its lifetime. Can I qualify?

In order to incur the Expert Fee, your account will need to be in lifetime profit. We will still show your Expert Fee rate based on your Last 52-Week Gross P&L, but if you account is not in profit over the lifetime you will have a buffer and will not be eligible to pay the Fee.

I have built up a large Premium Charge buffer over time. Will it be lost?

In order to transition smoothly onto the Expert Fee, we will reference the last time that you incurred Premium Charge and use your activity since this point in order to calculate your new Buffer at the time that the Expert Fee takes effect on 6th Jan 2025. If you have never incurred the charge, then lifetime data will be used to calculate the Buffer.

So, if you last incurred Premium Charge in 2023, we will calculate your Buffer as:

Gross P&L Since Last Charge = £100,000
Commission Generated Since Last Charge = £60,000
Current Expert Fee Rate = 20%

New Buffer = £60,000 / 0.2 - £100,000
                         = £200,000

Note for a customer on the 40% rate, their Buffer would be £60,000 / 0.4 - £100,000 = £50,000

The way I read that, if the Buffer is indeed based on lifetime Commission Generated vs Gross P&L then that would be great news and everything else I've said on this thread can be safely ignored

If I won 60 k on a Tote jackpot , would that be included in my profit figures and be subject to the charges ?

no, tote bets and sportsbook bets nothing to do with PC or EF.

So did you?!

A Long time ago I won over !00K on a Newmarket Jackpot. Noy had a single notable pick up for several years, though the poor carryovers mean I
have far fewer attempts.

@happyhibby

"if Betfair tweaked their BSP procedure i think it would help those folk who don't want to use a BOT but don't want to sit there event after event inputting prices or clicking on Gruss..."

I don't follow sorry - what do you mean?

the whole point of commission churning is having lots of bets (probably on stuff you know nowt about) and creating lots of commission/implied commission without making much of a profit/loss...

i'm sure folk do/did that using a BOT...

the BSP facility could be made better so that you can do something like this...

back lots of markets where the prices are around the 1.9 / 2.1 mark...

which you would think would result in a small loss or profit but create decent commission levels...

BSP allows you to back at MINIMUM odds but not MAXIMUM odds...

if it allowed both then you could do the 1.9 / 2.1 thingy...

and it would also allow you to load up without having to go through markets 'as they happen' which most folk don't have i would suggest...

i was just thinking out loud tbh longbridge...

and i'm not even sure it's possible (but i think it is)...

but that was my thinking.

Anything at BSP should work - if it's close to the fair price (and it demonstrably is) then you should be neutral pre-commission.

As for the maximum as well as minimum thing - every time I work through the detailed workings BSP examples I have to read them three times to get them straight in my head, so probably not up for that on a Sunday afternoon, but an interesting thought whether applying both a minimum and maximum could be done.

like i say it was a 'thinking out loud' exercise when looking at 'commission churning' scenarios longbridge...

especially for those who wouldn't trust a BOT to do the inputting of bets for them.

problem with churning is..ewe need to lose £10,000 and win £10,000 to churn and save £250 PC.

it isnt easy.

oh i agree Mr.Hunt...

was just something i thought about could help with the Expert Fee...

too much messing about for me tbh.

So is this Wednesday the final weekly payment of Premium Charge?

My interpretation of it is that the Expert Fee model kicks in on 6th Jan.

Dec 30, 2024 -- 1:09AM, Darlo Bantam wrote:

So is this Wednesday the final weekly payment of Premium Charge?

yes  This Wednesday must be the last ever PC payment !   

Darlo Bantam 30 Dec 24 01:09 
So is this Wednesday the final weekly payment of Premium Charge?


has to be next wed 6th for this weeks business.

Darlo Bantam 30 Dec 24 01:09
So is this Wednesday the final weekly payment of Premium Charge?


has to be next wed 8th for this weeks business.

expert fee begins 6th.

My take is this week is still on the old structure so a PC payment will be taken weds 8th as usual. EF starts from 6th Jan with first payment to be taken on 13th.

This was posted on the Bet Angel forum:

Better off (most to least)
An existing PC payer who makes consistently less than £25k gross per year is much better off because they will no longer pay any charge.
Those will a lifetime bank of winnings who have lost in the last 52 weeks but return to profit will be much better off because EF only takes the last 52 weeks into account.
An existing 50% or 60% PC payer is much better off due to the scrapping of the higher rates.
An existing 40% PC payer who makes consistently less than £100k gross per year is much better off because they will now only ever pay 20%.
An existing 40% PC payer who flirts around £100k gross per year is somewhat better off because they will sometimes pay 20% and sometimes pay 40%.
An existing 20% PC payer who flirts around £25k gross per year is somewhat better off because they will sometimes pay 20% and sometimes pay nothing.

Worse off (most to least)
Those with a lifetime bank of losses who are now consistently profitable above £25k gross will be much worse off (if they reach a lifetime gross profit position) because EF only takes the last 52 weeks into account.
An existing 20% PC payer who makes consistently more than £100k gross per year (these will be very rare) is much worse off because they will now only ever pay 40%.
An existing 40% PC payer who consistently makes more than £100k gross per year is a little worse off due to the reduction in implied commission rate from 3% to 2.5%.
An existing 20% PC payer who makes consistently between £25k and £100k gross per year is is a little worse off due to the reduction in implied commission rate from 3% to 2.5%.

Straw poll. Better off or worse off?

I'm worse off due to the reduced implied commission rate.

Yep. Need a poll

could be worse jamee...

you could be selling programmes outside Ibrox for a living.

Dec 30, 2024 -- 2:32PM, freddiewilliams wrote:

Yep. Need a poll

I've created a separate poll thread. See if it takes hold.

Those with a lifetime bank of losses who are now consistently profitable above £25k gross will be much worse off (if they reach a lifetime gross profit position) because EF only takes the last 52 weeks into account.

Not sure that is correct. At least, according to this they would have built up a large Buffer:-

-----
https://support.betfair.com/app/answers/detail/expert-fee-faqs
.
I have built up a large Premium Charge buffer over time. Will it be lost?

In order to transition smoothly onto the Expert Fee, we will reference the last time that you incurred Premium Charge and use your activity since this point in order to calculate your new Buffer at the time that the Expert Fee takes effect on 6th Jan 2025. If you have never incurred the charge, then lifetime data will be used to calculate the Buffer.

So, if you last incurred Premium Charge in 2023, we will calculate your Buffer as:

Gross P&L Since Last Charge = £100,000
Commission Generated Since Last Charge = £60,000
Current Expert Fee Rate = 20%

New Buffer = £60,000 / 0.2 - £100,000
                         = £200,000

Note for a customer on the 40% rate, their Buffer would be £60,000 / 0.4 - £100,000 = £50,000

Ok, if they reach a lifetime gross profit position (above 25k?) then they would start to become liable so that might be true indeed.

Rico-Dangleflaps 30 Dec 24 13:50 
Darlo Bantam 30 Dec 24 01:09
So is this Wednesday the final weekly payment of Premium Charge?


has to be next wed 8th for this weeks business.
Rico-Dangleflaps 30 Dec 24 13:50 
expert fee begins 6th.

jamee1 30 Dec 24 14:15 
My take is this week is still on the old structure so a PC payment will be taken weds 8th as usual. EF starts from 6th Jan with first payment to be taken on 13th.

sew..if new fee is taken from last 52 weeks rolling..lets say in a weeks time your last 52 weeks is +£80,000..your expert fee is 20% if a winning week.
the week after you lose £50,000..your last 52 weeks is still +£30,000
the next week you win £1000 you still pay £200.
so no £50,000 buffer.

unless im rong.

Dec 30, 2024 -- 3:26PM, Rico-Dangleflaps wrote:

sew..if new fee is taken from last 52 weeks rolling..lets say in a weeks time your last 52 weeks is +£80,000..your expert fee is 20% if a winning week.the week after you lose £50,000..your last 52 weeks is still +£30,000the next week you win £1000 you still pay £200.so no £50,000 buffer.unless im rong.

Wrong (I think). The £50k loss would create a new buffer to work through the same way as it would have before under the previous PC structure.

sew you'd still need to be under 20% charges before PC deduction..assumed new structure would scrap the buffer scenario..wonder what PP are getting from the new cistern.

Dec 30, 2024 -- 3:22PM, Rico-Dangleflaps wrote:

Rico-Dangleflaps 30 Dec 24 13:50

Yes. Think you and other replies are correct.

The portal getting removed for a day threw me out and got me hopeful there was a short crossover period.

I contacted betfair help on X  They said no PC payments will be taken after wednesday the 1st of January

if you're currently on £99,999 it's time to back a few losers today.

so how has the new regime affected liquidity? have the leavers returned en masse? can't say I've noticed.

Keep practising. Its not that hard