Charlie Appleby Missing Person.....

Aye Worlds Luckiest Man.

YEEEHAAA Matt Chapman: Charlie Appleby’s thinking makes him the best trainer in world.

Charlie is the third best trainer in the world currently, splitting Chad Brown and Bob Baffert, with Aidan out on his own in front.

The Gosdens apparently still the 7th best in the world. Are they even that high up in this country this season?

https://www.thoroughbredracing.com/rankings/category/trainer/

TRC Global Rankings are a principled hierarchy of the leading Horses, Sires, Jockeys, Owners and Trainers in the world using statistical learning techniques and TRC Computer Race Ratings. Updated every week, they are based entirely on the quality of performance of each individual's runners. See how the TRC Global Rankings work.

Thanks for the TRC link, GEORGE.

Had a look at the 'See how the TRC Global Rankings work' page and noticed the words 'Impact Value'.

The mention of IV brought back memories from a good few years ago and led me to searching the FlatStats site to find the formula for calculating the IV.

That led me to https://www.flatstats.co.uk/blog/impact-values.html and one of the examples was:-

In 4yo+ long distance (12f or more) Handicaps on the all weather, Colts have an impact value of 1.84 and have also returned a profit of 32%. These are the kind of positive stats you should be looking out for.

So in eager anticipation I fired up horseracebase and plugged in the following criteria...

Colts in 4y-o+, 12f & over, handicaps on UK All Weather, 2012 to date.

Guess what the result was?

There have been 24,817 runners in 2,880 UK All Weather handicap races restricted to 4y-o+ at a distance of 12f & over. 

281 of those 24,817 runners were Colts. Of this group 75 won the race.

IV (impact value) = (75/2880) / (281/24817)  = .026/.011 = 2.36

Impact Value = 2.36

P/L @ Betfair SP - +171.10  (ROI @ Betfair SP - 60.89%)

Interesting, eh?

On leaving the Flatstats page I noticed right at the bottom of it the words...

Article created 01-Jun-2000. Stats may have changed since.

Didn't know whether to or .

Probably Stateside overseeing final preps for the BC…this year they stabled 30-40 over there hence why you’ve been seeing Buick over there some weekends.

Gosden 7th best? Are you for real?

% of winners divided by % of runners top2

Blimey, top2rated, thought you'd found the holy grail and were sharing it with me

Mr Impossible, does anyone really care?
Burke and the Crisfords are in the top 50, so stick that in your pipe and smoke it.

I think I'm right in saying that James Willoughby was / is a big part of the TRC, though he doesn't seem to be writing many articles for them nowadays, but his figures told him early on that Charlie Appleby was going to be a big success when many might have been asking 'who is he?' or scoffed at the suggestion of him remotely being able to compete with Ballydoyle.

281 of those 24,817 runners were Colts.

Surely thats not right ?

Probably not many +4 yr old colts running in A/W H'caps.
Rnrs have more than likely ran in more than 1 race.

Spot on penzance as you can see from the number of individual horses in the extreme right-hand column.

Basic system criteria FAO TameTheTiger just in case he's got 'horseracebase'. 



If he has then he'll be well aware that he can run the system and then do a breakdown on the 'Sex of Horse' category.