Forums
Welcome to Live View – Take the tour to learn more
Start Tour
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
acey deucy
17 Oct 24 21:25
Joined:
Date Joined: 29 Sep 02
| Topic/replies: 31,466 | Blogger: acey deucy's blog
At Ascot on Champions Day....Not one Runner....Worlds Greatest Trainer My Fakin Arse.Laugh
Pause Switch to Standard View Charlie Appleby Missing Person.....
Show More
Loading...
Report acey deucy October 17, 2024 9:27 PM BST
Aye Worlds Luckiest Man.Plain
Report acey deucy October 17, 2024 9:32 PM BST
YEEEHAAA Matt Chapman: Charlie Appleby’s thinking makes him the best trainer in world.Laugh
Report GEORGE.B October 17, 2024 9:37 PM BST
Charlie is the third best trainer in the world currently, splitting Chad Brown and Bob Baffert, with Aidan out on his own in front.

The Gosdens apparently still the 7th best in the world. Are they even that high up in this country this season?

https://www.thoroughbredracing.com/rankings/category/trainer/
Report GEORGE.B October 17, 2024 9:39 PM BST
TRC Global Rankings are a principled hierarchy of the leading Horses, Sires, Jockeys, Owners and Trainers in the world using statistical learning techniques and TRC Computer Race Ratings. Updated every week, they are based entirely on the quality of performance of each individual's runners. See how the TRC Global Rankings work.
Report top2rated October 18, 2024 9:47 AM BST
Thanks for the TRC link, GEORGE.

Had a look at the 'See how the TRC Global Rankings work' page and noticed the words 'Impact Value'.

The mention of IV brought back memories from a good few years ago and led me to searching the FlatStats site to find the formula for calculating the IV.

That led me to https://www.flatstats.co.uk/blog/impact-values.html and one of the examples was:-

In 4yo+ long distance (12f or more) Handicaps on the all weather, Colts have an impact value of 1.84 and have also returned a profit of 32%. These are the kind of positive stats you should be looking out for.

So in eager anticipation I fired up horseracebase and plugged in the following criteria...

Colts in 4y-o+, 12f & over, handicaps on UK All Weather, 2012 to date.

Guess what the result was?

There have been 24,817 runners in 2,880 UK All Weather handicap races restricted to 4y-o+ at a distance of 12f & over. 

281 of those 24,817 runners were Colts. Of this group 75 won the race.

IV (impact value) = (75/2880) / (281/24817)  = .026/.011 = 2.36

Impact Value = 2.36

P/L @ Betfair SP - +171.10  (ROI @ Betfair SP - 60.89%)


Interesting, eh?

On leaving the Flatstats page I noticed right at the bottom of it the words...

Article created 01-Jun-2000. Stats may have changed since.

Didn't know whether to Laugh or Cry.
Report EastLower Gooner October 18, 2024 3:19 PM BST
Probably Stateside overseeing final preps for the BC…this year they stabled 30-40 over there hence why you’ve been seeing Buick over there some weekends.
Report impossible123 October 18, 2024 3:26 PM BST
Gosden 7th best? Are you for real?
Report wondersobright October 18, 2024 3:38 PM BST
% of winners divided by % of runners top2
Report GEORGE.B October 18, 2024 3:57 PM BST
Blimey, top2rated, thought you'd found the holy grail and were sharing it with me Cry

Mr Impossible, does anyone really care?
Burke and the Crisfords are in the top 50, so stick that in your pipe and smoke it.

I think I'm right in saying that James Willoughby was / is a big part of the TRC, though he doesn't seem to be writing many articles for them nowadays, but his figures told him early on that Charlie Appleby was going to be a big success when many might have been asking 'who is he?' or scoffed at the suggestion of him remotely being able to compete with Ballydoyle.
Report TameTheTiger October 18, 2024 4:22 PM BST
281 of those 24,817 runners were Colts.

Surely thats not right ?
Report penzance October 18, 2024 4:33 PM BST
Probably not many +4 yr old colts running in A/W H'caps.
Rnrs have more than likely ran in more than 1 race.
Report top2rated October 18, 2024 5:18 PM BST
Spot on penzance as you can see from the number of individual horses in the extreme right-hand column.

Report top2rated October 18, 2024 5:32 PM BST
Basic system criteria FAO TameTheTiger just in case he's got 'horseracebase'. 



If he has then he'll be well aware that he can run the system and then do a breakdown on the 'Sex of Horse' category.
Post Your Reply
<CTRL+Enter> to submit
Please login to post a reply.

Wonder

Instance ID: 13539
www.betfair.com