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Mark Holder article in the Racing post..
Mark Holder article in the Racing post..
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Replies: 49
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TM, stepson
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Yes, oneten. Thanks.
Trouble remembering what I went into a room for sometimes, so anything from 2008 is a bit blurry!  |
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https://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23532258/koos-comeback-thread
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1st time poster -- if Flying Dancer makes a mid-race move, some punters will back him because:-
1. He has accelerated 2. He has got nearer the front 3. The commentator has mentioned him And this means his price will shorten, which means some punters will back him because:- 4. His price has shortened And don't underestimate the amount of trading that goes on. Back shortener then immediately lay back at a fraction shorter. What Holder did was take the view that even though Flying Dancer seemed to be improving his chance of winning, actually he was throwing it away by making his move too early, so would lay him. There a couple of paradoxes here! 1. All winners will move to the front during the race (by definition, the winner has to have got to the front by the end of the race) so the mug punters do kind of have a point. 2. Even if Holder is a right mug who does not know which end of a horse to feed the polos, he will be right most of the time because most horses do in fact lose. It's just a question of price. 3. The best in-running players are the worst race-readers. If drones users are half a furlong in front of everyone else, they can just wait till they see who has won and then lump on at short prices. |
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I no all that but in running 3,4,5 furlongs ouyt is a niche market, and if holder says its bleedinly obvious horses making big midrace moves should be lengthing not shortening in price,it must be obvious to 90% of those getting involved,so how do 10% of the mugs provide enough liquidty for the other 90% not make 100,s of 1000,s of pounds bearing in mind if you believe HOLDER regarding fast pics,bots,drones etc etc he,s at the back of the queue of those 90%
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Best not to take anything he (Mark Holder) writes in the Racing Post too seriously imo, he's obviously (like a good few others) contracted to provide articles for them periodically and has to write something. Obviously with his "other interests" in mind he also has to mention repeatedly that he is a longstanding pro punter.
I don't mind what he writes tbf (there are much, much worse contributors out there!) and sometimes he makes some valid/interesting observations. But with this particular article, you'd be as well stopping at the point where he (as a pro-punter) states: "The big change came in 2015 when I first appreciated the opportunities of in-running betting". |
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1st time poster -- you might have misread what Holder wrote:-
My approach was a straightforward one. I simply bet against horses (at prices near or below their Betfair SP) when I felt their chance had been compromised, either by an inadequate jumping technique or, more commonly, by the way they were ridden. The best bets were always against horses who made ground mid-race too quickly. Their prices tended to contract when they should have been lengthening. Nowhere does he say it is bleeding obvious, and the fast pics boys are what drove him away. |
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sorry that's was my interpretation of what he meant / said, but don't you think 90% of those betting in the same niche situation as him thought the same,how many people think big mid race moves increase your chances of winning,and still doesn't explain how he beat fast pics than him,bots to this small pool of niche in running punters who thought big fast mid race moves mid race increased your chances of winning
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I might just be unobservant but I don't see "big fast mid race moves" very often. I just see horses mostly taking their position in the race and staying there until the latter stages. Very occasionally a horse moves up to take the lead if the rider judges the pace to be slow, more often a horse moves ahead of weakening horses in longer races and sometimes a slow starter tries to get a better position, but almost all noticeable moves are in the latter stages. It is certainly possible that these latter stage moves get overbet, I don't know enough about it to say, but that isn't what Holder was saying he bet on.
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Was good when you asked for say 5 about a horse and got matched at 16+
Then the crossmatcher reared its killjoy head and all you got was 5. Had to go and spoil it didnt they. |