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shortest price you will do e/w
shortest price you will do e/w
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as said i dont play at short odds so wont get involved in something i know little about but guys lets not resort to name calling and falling out . how do you come to the conclusion a certain horse iss a value price ?
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you didn't and you don't know how to work out the expected value of a bet
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Try selling tenners for a fiver Dave, you will probably last longer!! HTH Ce Vediamo cagino!!
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Dave gets it, I get it. My experience of all this is that it's pointless trying to explain all this to others who never will. I'll try here on that one I highlighted.
Was 4/7 to win so 4/35 (1.114) the place. That was the SP. Likely "true price" the win is around 8/13. In this case I'd say the "true" place odds should be nearer 1.07. so if the race was ran 100 times: It'd win 62% of the time. Be placed 94 % of the time (so 32% place only). Be unplaced 6% of the time. So backing £100 win at SP would return a 57% profit 62% of the time and a 100% loss 38% of the time which equates to a loss of 2.66% over time. Backing £100 e/w would be -2.66% on the win part (as above). The place part would be 94% chance of an 11.4% profit equating to an expected return of +4.71% Combining both gives a positive expected return of 2.05% |
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Thank the Lord for Google Translate..
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how do you come to the conclusion a certain horse iss a value price ? different entirely
For the sake of this discussion let's imagine a 1/2 shot that's 1.51 on the exchange to win and 1.05 to place (due to race shape). Over the longterm that bet will show a loss on the win side and a win (that covers the win loss) on the place side. |
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didn't see your post, joe.
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The point as you well know Dave is that in that example where it went of at 4/7 you still try to beat the SP. FWIW I backed that one at 4/6 and backed it win only as well. How to read what'll go off shorter is the entire key of winning long term. I'm just saying it's better to back 4/6 shots that go off at 4/7 than 3/1 into 9/4. I never back the night before or at early prices just in the half hour or so before the off. Don't want to draw attention to what you're doing. Of course I'd love to back at early prices but they'll soon close you down.
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Crikey you look away to watch the World Series Baseball and come back to find this lot , hoped before reopening the thread there'd be some friendly & constructive posts debating both sides of each way choices , however
 Toptr I'm thinking your mate in the photo must be a one-dimensional punter who's never worked in the industry and writes his stake and bet type on his betting slip before making his selection , if you apply any worthwhile criteria to bad e/way races mate you only end up with two choices in either using the selection that jumps in your face or not having a bet on the race , you certainly wouldn't be needing the racing post. penzance I owe you an explanation regarding the 16/5 post from yesterday so i'll mail you later with details  Foyles Unless it can be mathematically proven i've never thought the word value other than a posh word for a personal opinion , one mans value is another mans lay that's how the exchange partly exists , reckon the vast majority using the word value are just voicing their personal opinion which magically is then perceived as value , so if someone fancies a 4/1 shot then tell others you think it should be 3/1 so the personal opinion is explained away. Good luck today all |
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Hayden - I usually agree with much of what you say - but I'd take issue when you say value is "subjective" or is just an opinion or is in the eye of the beholder. Even worse are the people that say you can't eat value.
Of course you actually can eat it, if you want to. Pre-event: If you've bet at a value price - you will have the option to take (lock-in) a small profit before the event starts. Pre-Event: If you've failed to achieve a value price - you will have the option to take (lock-in) a small loss before the event starts. The result is immaterial in both those scenarios - but one scenario always wins, the other always loses - the end result P&L would be about the same for both if all bets were actually left to run (just with a bit more variance). One would still win (long term) and the other would still lose (long-term). So value can be measured. Over a large sample size by looking at your lifetime profit/loss or over a very small sample size (like just one event) via what I have described above. So the people that say you can't eat value are wrong. They would be correct to say some "bad value" bets still win and some "good value" bets still lose. But value is objective imo, not subjective. |
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Surely depends on your selection criteria? If your main reason for a selection is the breeder or pedigree or owner of a first time out maiden you are basing your selection on experience and years of study but the horse in question could be anything from a plater to a Group horse. The market often helps to confirm your judgement but not always.
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Fair enough TM but we're probably at slightly cross purposes , i was clumsily referring largely to race by race punters and in particular ones who look to the same dimension relentlessly.
In fact i'd agree you can eat value for sure over a long enough sample size so no debate there , going back my previous example used in the past i wouldn't toss a coin for £100k at 5/4 but asked to toss 100 times at 5/4 at a grand a pop i'd grab it with both hands. Majority would totally disagree with that coin flip scenario i'm sure but we can all view things slightly differently even being on the same page. To express a personal view i'd probably be better off describing the term value as an often overused or misused word instead of trying to dissect it. |
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Forget explaining " Value" Hayden, the most overused and inaccurate description of a bet ever used, like beauty being in the eye of the beholder. How many times have we seen "Got the value though" on a loser? There is no value if there is no profit at the end, e.g Quixall has stated "I will bet if evens but not 10/11"?
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