2.00 Kempton

I rarely get the Balding yard right, but I have had an each-way dart at Jouncy in this race. Bred in the purple, the form of his Goodwood win (from a wide draw) couldn't have worked out much better. The second hasn't run since, but the third, fourth, fifth, sixth and eighth have all subsequently won. He was disappointing in the Acomb Stakes, but having attained a good track position for some reason Murphy eased him back into a terrible position, and then didn't persevere. That was likely a hot race, but I hope he is better than that finishing position. He will need to be. Today he's visored first time which might suggest he hasn't been putting it all in, and he's also dropped back in trip. The dam was best at this trip. The favourite was third in a Gimcrack at 80/1. I'm never too keen when a horse surprises, and next time is a short priced favourite. Balding won the Gimcrack so he should have an idea of the relative merits. Brian looks a more solid option, but this is tougher than his easy win in a Sales race. Probably the biggest concern for Jouncy is how much energy he can conserve from a wide draw.

Kalpana has been well backed in the September Stakes, but I am happy to leave her alone. I think she has been disappointing on a couple of occasions, and produced a very tame finish over this trip at Royal Ascot when again very well backed. If you have backed her I think you are gambling that Hamish has gone significantly backwards. At the prices I might be inclined to give him another chance. I was hoping 365 might have boosted him, but they have chosen the third favourite instead.