The Lion In Winter

O'Brien not got the best of records in this.Last Wnr Hemmingway (2000).

I think it's an avoid. Watching brief ro me.

No idea if pressure is applied, but in recent years O'Brien seems to want to continually create a Guineas/Derby horse rather than go the Galileo route which I think would better suit this horse.

Having read the forms of both principal protagonists a 2nd time I'd side with The Lion In Winter. I think he does have the pace to do himself justice against Ruling Court in the Acomb.

I am laying both front 2.

To show that sort of speed with that sort of pedigree I think and hope this horse might be very good.

Seems to have the temperament as well, and off the back of that should now be a clear favourite for the Derby.

Allowed to dictate the race, I'd say Moore was laughing after a furlong.

Around 7/1.

Looks a great prospect no doubt.

OP
If you're on early doors for the Derby,
   GL

Thanks I am on at 28/1, but just getting there is so difficult.

In 2022 I backed Auguste Rodin ante post for the 2000 and he ended up wonning the Derby, and last year I had Arabian Crown for the 2000, and he ended up being Derby favourite. Could be I will get this the wrong way round as well.

looks like a complete bomb out for everywun on this fred.

?

The original thread for those who don't appreciate the idea of after timing.

https://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/31848543/the-lion-in-winter

differentdrum 19 Aug 24 11:39 
Very surprised at the Acomb entry. Not at all sure that 7 furlongs on a quick track will suit.

penzance 19 Aug 24 11:59 
O'Brien not got the best of records in this.

impossible123 19 Aug 24 16:59 
I think it's an avoid.

Trusty 19 Aug 24 20:24 
I am laying both front 2.

Rico-Dangleflaps 21 Aug 24 14:55 
looks like a complete bomb out for everywun on this fred.

If that's 'bombing out' hope I manage to do it more often.

TY.

Testing race predictions for York tomorrow!

If Ruling Court is indeed a false favourite, it changes the dynamics of the race and opens up opportunities for other contenders. Here’s an analysis based on the assumption that Ruling Court may not perform up to expectations:

Alternative Contenders:
1. The Lion In Winter (3.9)
Strengths: This colt by Sea The Stars won impressively on debut at the Curragh over 7f, showing strong finishing power. Aidan O’Brien’s horses often improve significantly after their first run, and Ryan Moore is a top jockey with a strong record in high-class races.
Ground Suitability: Proven on good ground, and Sea The Stars' progeny are generally versatile, though some lean towards preferring a bit more give. The Good to Firm ground at York shouldn’t be a major concern.
Tactical Advantage: Drawn well in stall 3, he should be able to secure a good early position and have every chance to challenge late on.
Conclusion: The Lion In Winter would likely become the main selection if Ruling Court underperforms. His strong connections, proven form over the distance, and ability to finish strongly make him a very compelling alternative.

2. Wimbledon Hawkeye (26)
Strengths: Finished a credible third in the Group 2 Superlative Stakes at Newmarket, showing that he can handle this level of competition. His performance suggests there is more improvement to come, and the step up to 7f should suit him.
Ground Suitability: His best run came on Good ground, so the current conditions should not be an issue.
Tactical Advantage: Drawn in stall 2, he can position well and strike late if the pace is suitable.
Conclusion: Wimbledon Hawkeye would become an excellent each-way or place option if the favourite falters. His Group race experience and potential for further improvement make him a solid alternative.

3. Rajeko (29)
Strengths: He finished fourth in the Group 2 July Stakes, which is strong form, particularly if he improves for the step up in distance to 7f. Michael Bell’s horses tend to improve with experience, and Rajeko could surprise at a decent price.
Ground Suitability: Won on Good to Firm at Windsor, suggesting today’s conditions will suit him well.
Tactical Advantage: Middle draw in stall 5 gives him flexibility to either track the pace or sit handy.
Conclusion: Rajeko offers value at longer odds and could be a good option for an each-way bet. If the pace is strong, he could find himself finishing strongly, especially over this trip.

Alternative Betting Strategies:
Win-Only Bet: The Lion In Winter - He would be the standout choice if Ruling Court is a false favourite. His form, pedigree, and connections make him the logical next pick.
Each-Way Bet: Wimbledon Hawkeye - Offers solid value with proven Group race form and potential for improvement.
Place-Only Bet: Rajeko - A longshot who could sneak into the places if he handles the step up in trip and delivers on his potential.
Market Sentiment Consideration:
If there is a significant drift in Ruling Court's odds closer to the race, it may be a sign that market confidence is waning, further supporting the case for focusing on alternatives like The Lion In Winter or Wimbledon Hawkeye.
Conclusion:
If Ruling Court underperforms, The Lion In Winter would be the most likely winner, with Wimbledon Hawkeye and Rajeko becoming attractive each-way or place options. Adjusting your strategy to focus on these horses would be prudent in light of a potential upset.

Again, this analysis is speculative and based on the premise that Ruling Court may not live up to expectations. Always gamble responsibly and consider market movements leading up to the race.

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Bite me
bitch

This sales race that's being targeted seems another strange race for a potential Derby winner.

Yes, he likely goes off at 1/3, but the nature of these races will probably mean 20+ runners stretched across the track. We saw what can happen with Arizona Blaze. Officially that horse had 29lbs in hand of the winner, but couldn't get the job done. Yes, it's a big pot, but clearly connections don't need the money, and the horse doesn't need 7 furlongs. So many races over a mile you would think he could target instead. Despite the pedigree from the outside it looks as if they are far keener on winning a Guineas than a Derby. Sadly, everything these days appears geared towards speed. I suspect you have to go back a very long way back to find a Derby winner who took on a field of 20+ over 7 furlongs at two. Presumably, back to the days when Newmarket had 25 runner maidens. It may never have been done on a third start.

The future best horse AOB has ever trained.......after Auguste Rodin (2023) and City Of Troy (2024).

Surprised he hasn’t said it already,Imp123.

I think AOB will if The Lion In Winter wins The Dewhurst.