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askjack
13 Aug 24 15:56
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Date Joined: 22 Nov 08
| Topic/replies: 1,172 | Blogger: askjack's blog
Compact Betting Recommendations HRE

Race Details:
Race: Get The Inside Track With raceday-ready.com Handicap
Time: 16:45
Date: Tue 13 Aug 2024
Location: Lingfield Park
Distance: 1m 2f
Going: Good to Firm (Good in places)
Prize: £2,983
Runners: 9
ClassPar: 0-55

All 9 Runners Overview:

Horse 1: Manila Mist
Official Rating: 55
Recent Form: 245296
Speed Figures: TS 51, RPR 60
Trainer: Karen Jewell
Jockey: Charles Bishop
Forecast Odds: 14/1
IP Hi/Lo: 12.62/530
OLBG Tips: 26%
Key Stats: Adjusted Weight: 9st 9lb

Horse 2: Thursday
Official Rating: 54
Recent Form: 541267
Speed Figures: TS 55, RPR 63
Trainer: Simon Dow
Jockey: Neil Callan
Forecast Odds: 4/1
IP Hi/Lo: 6.33/3.5
OLBG Tips: 18%
Key Stats: Adjusted Weight: 9st 8lb

Horse 3: Chico Dulce
Official Rating: 53
Recent Form: 640815
Speed Figures: TS 53, RPR 60
Trainer: Michael Madgwick
Jockey: William Carson
Forecast Odds: 7/1
IP Hi/Lo: 6.27/3.65
OLBG Tips: 17%
Key Stats: Adjusted Weight: 9st 7lb

Horse 4: Hazel Bear
Official Rating: 52
Recent Form: 9-2786
Speed Figures: TS 52, RPR 59
Trainer: Jamie Osborne
Jockey: Callum Shepherd
Forecast Odds: 11/1
IP Hi/Lo: 18/11.5
OLBG Tips: 9%
Key Stats: Adjusted Weight: 9st 6lb

Horse 5: Khangai
Official Rating: 51
Recent Form: 763436
Speed Figures: TS 53, RPR 61
Trainer: Mark Rimell
Jockey: Hollie Doyle
Forecast Odds: 5/2
IP Hi/Lo: 3.05/9
OLBG Tips: 25%
Key Stats: Adjusted Weight: 9st 5lb

Horse 6: Mon Etoile
Official Rating: 56
Recent Form: 533378
Speed Figures: TS 54, RPR 58
Trainer: Charlie Johnston
Jockey: Oisin Murphy
Forecast Odds: 15/2
IP Hi/Lo: 18.5/12.5
OLBG Tips: 22%
Key Stats: Adjusted Weight: 9st 2lb

Horse 7: Laurentia
Official Rating: 47
Recent Form: 657150
Speed Figures: TS 47, RPR 52
Trainer: John E. Long
Jockey: George Rooke
Forecast Odds: 40/1
IP Hi/Lo: 6.08/7.4
OLBG Tips: 4%
Key Stats: Adjusted Weight: 9st 1lb

Horse 8: Kodiac Brave
Official Rating: 46
Recent Form: 99-040
Speed Figures: TS 44, RPR 49
Trainer: Craig Benton
Jockey: Georgia Dobie
Forecast Odds: 100/1
IP Hi/Lo: 60.75/1001
OLBG Tips: 9%
Key Stats: Adjusted Weight: 9st 0lb

Horse 9: Newfangled
Official Rating: 53
Recent Form: 544431
Speed Figures: TS 56, RPR 64
Trainer: Jonathan Portman
Jockey: Rob Hornby
Forecast Odds: 11/4
IP Hi/Lo: 7.4/-
OLBG Tips: 39%
Key Stats: Adjusted Weight: 8st 13lb
Analysis Key Contenders:

Horse 1: Khangai
Reason: Consistent form and Hollie Doyle in the saddle.
Betfair Odds: 5/2
OLBG Tips: 25%

Horse 2: Newfangled
Reason: Impressive win last time out, progressive.
Betfair Odds: 11/4
OLBG Tips: 39%

Horse 3: Thursday
Reason: Dropping back in trip may suit.
Betfair Odds: 4/1
OLBG Tips: 18%
Potential Upset:

Horse 4: Mon Etoile
Reason: Visor applied, Oisin Murphy aboard.
Betfair Odds: 15/2
OLBG Tips: 22%

Wild Card:
Horse 5: Chico Dulce
Reason: Capable at this level, tongue strap on first time.
Betfair Odds: 7/1
OLBG Tips: 17%

Conclusion
Based on the analysis, Newfangled and Khangai appear to be the strongest contenders for the race, with Thursday being a notable challenger given her form at the course. Mon Etoile could potentially cause an upset if the visor works well. OLBG tips heavily favour Newfangled, highlighting strong support from the tipster community.

Betting Recommendations
Win Bet: Newfangled
Place Bet: Khangai
Each-Way Bet: Mon Etoile

Data Sources:
Timeform
Betfair
Irish Racing Post
The Racing Post
OLGB
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Report askjack August 13, 2024 4:02 PM BST
Use your Noggin the Nog or research the AI predictions.

I will try to catch Steamers at the Post by publishing an odds check but don't bank on it. DIY it!
Report CagliariG August 13, 2024 4:06 PM BST
Is this Gaze with a new grail pinpointing first and second favs? Genuis for Artificial Insemination.
Report askjack August 13, 2024 4:37 PM BST
Odds check for Steamers, please:

Based on the information you've provided, the market odds suggest that the favourites for the 16:45 race at Lingfield are as follows:

Khangai (Horse 5) - Odds ranging from 3.95 to 4.4.
Newfangled (Horse 9) - Odds ranging from 3.95 to 4.4.
Both horses seem to be well-supported in the market, with Khangai and Newfangled trading closely together, indicating a tight competition between them.

The rest of the field has higher odds, indicating that they are less favoured:

Thursday (Horse 2) - Odds are around 5.3 to 5.8.
Mon Etoile (Horse 6) - Odds ranging from 8.2 to 9.2.
Chico Dulce (Horse 3) - Odds from 9.6 to 11.5.
Manila Mist (Horse 1) - Odds ranging from 18.5 to 22.
Hazel Bear (Horse 4) - Odds also in the range of 18.5 to 22.
Laurentia (Horse 7) - Higher odds ranging from 42 to 55.
Kodiac Brave (Horse 8) - The longest shot in the field with odds from 180 to 240.
Late Steamer Insights:
If you're looking for potential late steamers (horses whose odds shorten significantly close to the race time), you might want to focus on any sudden shifts in the odds of the top three or four horses. Currently, Khangai and Newfangled seem to be the key contenders. If you notice either of their odds dropping further (especially below 4.0), it could indicate a significant late interest in them. Alternatively, watch for any sharp movements in odds for Thursday or Mon Etoile, which could also suggest a late steamer.

Keep an eye on these shifts as they often reflect last-minute betting confidence or inside information, which might not be available earlier.
Report stewarts rise August 13, 2024 4:45 PM BST
That's either a lot of typing or copy/paste, i actually think your wasting your time as doubt many are interested, just put up your fancies and your P/L, that's all people are interested in imo. Good luck with picks.
Report askjack August 13, 2024 4:48 PM BST
Newfangled won Kangai unplaced.
Report GLASGOWCALLING August 13, 2024 4:49 PM BST
Think Hornby kicked on a bit early, ran well all the same. ( Newfangled)
Report askjack August 13, 2024 5:00 PM BST
Hollie rode OK probably the race came too soon.

New fang £1.50 E/W placed but lost £0.54
Khangai  £2    Win lost £2.00

My bet selection needs sorting out!

That's all the predictions for today.

I will post the after-race critique when the results are published.
Report askjack August 13, 2024 5:08 PM BST

Aug 13, 2024 -- 4:45PM, stewarts rise wrote:


That's either a lot of typing or copy/paste, i actually think your wasting your time as doubt many are interested, just put up your fancies and your P/L, that's all people are interested in imo. Good luck with picks.


The link states clearly what you are going to get a concise AI prediction.

If you or anyone else thinks the same and do not like the way I present it... don't click the link.

Report askjack August 13, 2024 5:13 PM BST
Race Outcome Critique
Predicted Favourites:

Khangai and Newfangled were identified as the top contenders.
Thursday and Mon Etoile were noted as horses to watch for any late steaming.

Actual Result:

Thursday won the race at 10/3 SP.
Newfangled finished second, half a length behind.
Mon Etoile secured third place.
Khangai finished in fourth, failing to place in the top three.

Analysis of the Prediction:

Correct Identification of Strong Contenders:

Thursday, though initially not among the top favourites based on odds, was correctly identified as a potential late steamer, which turned out to be accurate as it won the race.
Newfangled and Mon Etoile were also correctly identified as top contenders, finishing second and third respectively.
Miss on Khangai:

Khangai was expected to perform better based on its strong market support but only managed to finish fourth. This underperformance suggests that despite the odds, the horse might have encountered issues during the race or simply didn't have the required finish.
Overall Market Reflection:

The race result largely mirrored the betting market's sentiments, with the first three favourites finishing in the top three positions, albeit in a slightly different order.
Late Steamer Success:

The prediction about Thursday being a potential late steamer was accurate. The horse's odds shortened significantly leading up to the race, and it managed to win, reflecting the late betting confidence.

Summary:
The prediction was largely successful, particularly in identifying Thursday as a strong contender despite it not being the favourite in initial odds. Newfangled and Mon Etoile performed as expected, finishing in the top three. The only miss was on Khangai, which underperformed compared to its odds. The insights on late steamers were especially on point, proving valuable for this race's outcome.
Report askjack August 13, 2024 8:28 PM BST

Aug 13, 2024 -- 4:06PM, CagliariG wrote:


Is this Gaze with a new grail pinpointing first and second favs? Genuis for Artificial Insemination.


I was born in 1955 and have not kept up with modern-day slang. So I asked my Grand Niece for a translation.

Is this Gaze (look) with a new (holy)grail pinpointing first and second favs? Genuis for Artificial Insemination (probably an autocorrect malfunction from mobile, but very funny).

If she is correct thank you.

Check my first post today and there are simple instructions for building your own AI App using my template as a starting point.

Best regards and good luck.

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