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askjack
30 May 24 09:30
Joined:
Date Joined: 22 Nov 08
| Topic/replies: 1,172 | Blogger: askjack's blog
Runners and Form Analysis with In-Play Data and Timeform Insights
Race Details:
Race: 14:20 Lingfield
Time: 14:20
Date: Thursday, 30 May
Location: Lingfield
Distance: 2 miles
Prize: £4,187
Surface: Turf
Going: Good to Firm
Runners: 9

Probable SP:

Wannabe Brave (4.0)
Abraaj (4.8)
Greek Giant (5.4)
African Star (8.2)
Kojin (10.5)
Doublethetrouble (13.0)
Daaris (19.5)
Dotties Star (28.0)
Ship To Shore (55.0)
Key Runners:

Wannabe Brave (Jockey: Oisin Murphy): Showing strong form, has good chances. Current SP: 4.0
Abraaj (Jockey: J Mitchell): Consistent performer, expected to do well. Current SP: 4.8
Greek Giant (Jockey: Rossa Ryan): Another strong contender with good recent form. Current SP: 5.4
Runner Analysis:
Wannabe Brave

Form: Consistently strong performances recently.
Analysis: With Oisin Murphy aboard, this runner is expected to perform well. Strong contender.
Abraaj

Form: Finished well in recent races, showing good form.
Analysis: Reliable performer and strong contender for the top spots.
Greek Giant

Form: Recent performances have been promising.
Analysis: With Rossa Ryan as the jockey, this horse has a solid chance of finishing in the top positions.
African Star

Form: Mixed results recently but has potential.
Analysis: Could surprise with a strong performance. Worth considering for place betting.
Kojin

Form: Recent performances indicate potential for improvement.
Analysis: Could be a strong place candidate if returning to form.
Doublethetrouble

Form: Recent form has been moderate.
Analysis: Needs to show improvement to be competitive in this race.
Daaris

Form: Mixed performances but has shown potential.
Analysis: Could surprise if conditions are favorable.
Dotties Star

Form: Recent performances have been below par.
Analysis: Needs significant improvement to be competitive.
Ship To Shore

Form: Long odds reflect recent poor form.
Analysis: Unlikely to feature unless showing dramatic improvement.
Summary:
Top Win Candidates: Wannabe Brave, Abraaj, Greek Giant
Strong Place Candidates: African Star, Kojin
Dark Horses: Daaris, Doublethetrouble
Disclaimer:
Note: Horse racing outcomes are inherently unpredictable, and actual results may vary. This analysis is based on available data and should be used as a guide rather than a definitive prediction.

Stewards' Inquiry:
Ms. Flibble (AKA ChatGPT 4.0) can occasionally miss the mark. Always verify critical racing opinions and data from multiple reliable sources.
Pause Switch to Standard View Ms Flibble AI Experiment - 14:20...
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Report askjack May 30, 2024 9:32 AM BST
//////\\\\\\//////\\\\\\//////         
Notebook Early Doors Experiment
Started: 8 May 2024
Profit Bank:  £08.00
Top Ups Used: £00.00
//////\\\\\\//////\\\\\\//////
\\\\\\\\\\\////////\
Early Doors Notebook
////////////////\\\\
Thurs 30th May 2024
////////////////



(NO Flibble)

Experiment Bankroll:                £08.34
Experiment Profit Bank              £22.00
/////////////////////////

Monthly Software Liabilities
ChatGPT 4.o (Ms Flibble)         -£18.98
Fairbot                          -£10.00

Total                            -£28.98

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Report askjack May 30, 2024 9:44 AM BST
Back (Bet For)
Odds
Stake
Profit
Wannabe Brave
4
£3.00
£9.00
Ref: 350211182997
Matched: 09:43 30-May-24
Report askjack May 30, 2024 11:42 AM BST
Summary
2-Runner Dutch Bet: Minimum odds to cover the tax are approximately 2.08.
3-Runner Dutch Bet: Minimum odds to cover the tax are approximately 3.12.
4-Runner Dutch Bet: Minimum odds to cover the tax are approximately 4.16.
The inconsistency in the previous explanation regarding the 3-runner Dutch bet was an error. The correct minimum odds for a 3-runner Dutch bet to cover the tax is approximately 3.12, not 3.1224.
E/W
2-Runner Each-Way Dutch Bet: Minimum odds for each outcome should be greater than 5.00.
3-Runner Each-Way Dutch Bet: Minimum odds for each outcome should be greater than 7.50.
4-Runner Each-Way Dutch Bet: Minimum odds for each outcome should be greater than 10.00.
These calculations ensure that your Dutch bets in the Each-Way market remain viable and profitable. Always consider adjusting these figures if there are variations in place terms or other specific conditions.
Report askjack May 30, 2024 2:36 PM BST
//////\\\\\\//////\\\\\\//////         
Notebook Early Doors Experiment
Started: 8 May 2024
Profit Bank:  £08.00
Top Ups Used: £00.00
//////\\\\\\//////\\\\\\//////
\\\\\\\\\\\////////\
Early Doors Notebook
////////////////\\\\
Thurs 30th May 2024
////////////////
Early Doors Experiment

Wannabe Brave                       £07.48


(NO Flibble)

Experiment Bankroll:                £15.84
Experiment Profit Bank              £22.00
/////////////////////////

Monthly Software Liabilities
ChatGPT 4.o (Ms Flibble)         -£18.98
Fairbot                          -£10.00

Total                            -£28.98

\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\/////////////
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1st  (7) Wannabe Brave 9/4 F
2nd  (4) Daaris 10/1
3rd  (1) Greek Giant 5/1
Report askjack May 30, 2024 2:51 PM BST
Exmoor Forest
6
£0.43
£2.15
Ref: 350214808392
Matched: 10:35 30-May-24
Exmoor Forest
6
£0.83
£4.15
Ref: 350214808392
Matched: 10:35 30-May-24

Ballinsker
8
£0.82
£5.74
Ref: 350214809121
Matched: 10:35 30-May-24
Ballinsker
8.2
£0.12
£0.86
Ref: 350214809121
Matched: 10:35 30-May-24

Steppenwolf
9.4
£0.80
£6.72
Report askjack May 30, 2024 3:11 PM BST
//////\\\\\\//////\\\\\\//////         
Notebook Early Doors Experiment
Started: 8 May 2024
Profit Bank:  £08.00
Top Ups Used: £00.00
//////\\\\\\//////\\\\\\//////
\\\\\\\\\\\////////\
Early Doors Notebook
////////////////\\\\
Thurs 30th May 2024
////////////////
Early Doors Experiment

Wannabe Brave                       £07.48

Dutch                               £04.16
Exmoor Forest (2nd)
Ballinsker
Steppenwolf (winner)






(NO Flibble)

Experiment Bankroll:                £20.00
Experiment Profit Bank              £22.00
/////////////////////////

Monthly Software Liabilities
ChatGPT 4.o (Ms Flibble)         -£18.98
Fairbot                          -£10.00

Total                            -£28.98

\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\/////////////
///////////////\\\\\\\\\\\\\

1st  (7) Wannabe Brave 9/4 F
2nd  (4) Daaris 10/1

1st  (2) Steppenwolf 13/2
2nd  (5) Exmoor Forest 6/1 2F
3rd  (4) Magic Dancer 10/1
Report askjack May 30, 2024 3:14 PM BST
Blenheim Star
5.6
£1.20
£5.52
Ref: 350219389993
Matched: 11:55 30-May-24

Medician Star
5.4
£1.24
£5.46
Ref: 350219389992
Matched: 12:48 30-May-24

First Encounter
9
£0.56
£4.48
Report askjack May 30, 2024 3:15 PM BST
15:50 Ripon
Thu 30 May 1m Hcap
Report askjack May 30, 2024 4:00 PM BST
//////\\\\\\//////\\\\\\//////         
Notebook Early Doors Experiment
Started: 8 May 2024
Profit Bank:  £08.00
Top Ups Used: £00.00
//////\\\\\\//////\\\\\\//////
\\\\\\\\\\\////////\
Early Doors Notebook
////////////////\\\\
Thurs 30th May 2024
////////////////
Early Doors Experiment

Wannabe Brave                       £07.48

Dutch                               £04.16
Exmoor Forest (2nd)
Ballinsker
Steppenwolf (winner)

Dutch                               £03.42
Blenheim Star  (winner)
Medician Star
First Encounter (2nd)



(NO Flibble)

Experiment Bankroll:                £23.42
Experiment Profit Bank              £22.00
/////////////////////////

Monthly Software Liabilities
ChatGPT 4.o (Ms Flibble)         -£18.98
Fairbot                          -£10.00

Total                            -£28.98

\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\/////////////
///////////////\\\\\\\\\\\\\

1st  (7) Wannabe Brave 9/4 F
2nd  (4) Daaris 10/1

1st  (2) Steppenwolf 13/2
2nd  (5) Exmoor Forest 6/1 2F
3rd  (4) Magic Dancer 10/1

1st  (6) Blenheim Star 7/2 F
2nd  (9) First Encounter 9/2 J2F
3rd  (7) They 15/2
Report askjack May 30, 2024 4:15 PM BST
16:20 Ripon
Thu 30 May 1m2f Hcap

Loyal Touch
3.75
£3.00
£8.25

E/W Market
Ey Up Its The Boss
6.6
£0.54
Ref: 350240068521
Matched: 16:11 30-May-24
Report askjack May 30, 2024 4:27 PM BST
16:50 Ripon
Thu 30 May 6f Hcap

Raft Up
6.2
£3.00
£15.60
Ref: 350241543329
Matched: 16:26 30-May-24
Report askjack May 30, 2024 4:38 PM BST
//////\\\\\\//////\\\\\\//////         
Notebook Early Doors Experiment
Started: 8 May 2024
Profit Bank:  £08.00
Top Ups Used: £00.00
//////\\\\\\//////\\\\\\//////
\\\\\\\\\\\////////\
Early Doors Notebook
////////////////\\\\
Thurs 30th May 2024
////////////////
Early Doors Experiment

Wannabe Brave                       £07.48

Dutch                               £04.16
Exmoor Forest (2nd)
Ballinsker
Steppenwolf (winner)

Dutch                               £03.42
Blenheim Star  (winner)
Medician Star
First Encounter (2nd)

Dutch                              -£03.00
Loyal Touch (2nd)
Ey Up Its The Boss (3rd)            £00.06
(NO Flibble)

Experiment Bankroll:                £20.48
Experiment Profit Bank              £22.00
/////////////////////////

Monthly Software Liabilities
ChatGPT 4.o (Ms Flibble)         -£18.98
Fairbot                          -£10.00

Total                            -£28.98

\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\/////////////
///////////////\\\\\\\\\\\\\

1st  (7) Wannabe Brave 9/4 F
2nd  (4) Daaris 10/1

1st  (2) Steppenwolf 13/2
2nd  (5) Exmoor Forest 6/1 2F
3rd  (4) Magic Dancer 10/1

1st  (6) Blenheim Star 7/2 F
2nd  (9) First Encounter 9/2 J2F
3rd  (7) They 15/2

1st  (8) Titian 11/1
2nd  (3) Loyal Touch 5/2 F
3rd  (9) Ey Up Its The Boss 11/2
Report askjack May 30, 2024 5:05 PM BST
//////\\\\\\//////\\\\\\//////         
Notebook Early Doors Experiment
Started: 8 May 2024
Profit Bank:  £08.00
Top Ups Used: £00.00
//////\\\\\\//////\\\\\\//////
\\\\\\\\\\\////////\
Early Doors Notebook
////////////////\\\\
Thurs 30th May 2024
////////////////
Early Doors Experiment

Wannabe Brave                       £07.48

Dutch                               £04.16
Exmoor Forest (2nd)
Ballinsker
Steppenwolf (winner)

Dutch                               £03.42
Blenheim Star  (winner)
Medician Star
First Encounter (2nd)

Dutch                              -£03.00
Loyal Touch (2nd)
Ey Up Its The Boss (3rd)            £00.06

Raft Up                            -£03.00


(NO Flibble)

Experiment Bankroll:                £17.48
Experiment Profit Bank              £22.00
/////////////////////////

Monthly Software Liabilities
ChatGPT 4.o (Ms Flibble)         -£18.98
Fairbot                          -£10.00

Total                            -£28.98

\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\/////////////
///////////////\\\\\\\\\\\\\

1st  (7) Wannabe Brave 9/4 F
2nd  (4) Daaris 10/1

1st  (2) Steppenwolf 13/2
2nd  (5) Exmoor Forest 6/1 2F
3rd  (4) Magic Dancer 10/1

1st  (6) Blenheim Star 7/2 F
2nd  (9) First Encounter 9/2 J2F
3rd  (7) They 15/2

1st  (8) Titian 11/1
2nd  (3) Loyal Touch 5/2 F
3rd  (9) Ey Up Its The Boss 11/2

1st  (6) Woodleigh 9/2
2nd  (7) La La Lucrative 15/8 F
3rd  (2) Raft Up 7/2 2F

///////\\\\\\/////\\\///\\//\/

That is it for today.

I might bet in the evening races if something catches Flibbs eye ;)
Report askjack May 30, 2024 7:25 PM BST
19:40 Warwick
Thu 30 May 3m Hcap Chs

Pilot Show
4
£0.89
£2.67
Ref: 350260753660
Matched: 19:21 30-May-24
Pilot Show
4
£2.11
£6.33
Ref: 350260753660
Matched: 19:21 30-May-24

Racing Runners and Form Analysis of IRE and GB Racing with In-Play Data and Timeform Insights
Race Details:
Race: Bromwich Hardy Handicap Chase
Time: 19:40
Date: 30 May 2024
Location: Warwick
Distance: 3 miles
Prize: £6,000
Surface: Turf
Going: Good
Runners: 12

Probable SP:

Aviewtosea (IRE) - 5/1
Pilot Show (IRE) - 11/2
Kadex (FR) - 6/1
Presenting Jeremy (IRE) - 8/1
Dusautior - 7/2
Time For A Pint (IRE) - 9/2
Conceroe (IRE) - 7/1
Head On (IRE) - 12/1
Getupearly - 10/1
Flemen's Tipple (IRE) - 15/2
Bells of Stamford (IRE) - 20/1
Cobra Commander (IRE) - 16/1
Key Runners:

Aviewtosea (IRE) (Jockey: Kielan Woods): Dropped significantly in weights; needs better form. Current SP: 5/1
Pilot Show (IRE) (Jockey: James Bowen): Consistent placings, big player off 1 lb lower. Current SP: 11/2
Kadex (FR) (Jockey: Tom Cannon): Needs improvement; unreliable recent form. Current SP: 6/1
Likely Winners:
Pilot Show (IRE)

Form: Consistent placings post-breakthrough win.
Analysis: Encouraging recent effort; significant player.
Time For A Pint (IRE)

Form: Recent win over C&D.
Analysis: Strong last performance; shortlist material despite 10 lb rise.
Strong Place Candidates:
Kadex (FR)

Form: One win from 18 starts, struggling lately.
Analysis: Needs to improve based on recent poor form.
Dusautior

Form: Improved when upped in trip; recent win at Bangor.
Analysis: 4 lb rise fair; likely contender.
Dark Horses:
Head On (IRE)

Form: Runner-up after long absence; recent poor form.
Analysis: Needs significant improvement.
Getupearly

Form: Better than result on chasing debut.
Analysis: Potential if building on last effort.
Specific Horses for Bromwich Hardy Handicap Chase:
Aviewtosea (IRE): Needs better recent form.
Pilot Show (IRE): Consistent and encouraging recent performance.
Time For A Pint (IRE): Strong contender with recent C&D win.
Summary:
Top Win Candidates: Pilot Show (IRE), Time For A Pint (IRE)
Strong Place Candidates: Kadex (FR), Dusautior
Dark Horses: Head On (IRE), Getupearly
Draw and Pace Bias Insights:
Warwick: Typically favors horses with early speed. Inside draws can be advantageous, particularly in larger fields.
Disclaimer:
Note: Horse racing outcomes are inherently unpredictable, and actual results may vary. This analysis is based on available data and should be used as a guide rather than a definitive prediction.

Stewards' Inquiry:
Ms. Flibble (AKA ChatGPT 4.0) can occasionally miss the mark. Always verify critical racing opinions and data from multiple reliable sources. ALWAYS!
Report askjack May 30, 2024 8:03 PM BST
//////\\\\\\//////\\\\\\//////         
Notebook Early Doors Experiment
Started: 8 May 2024
Profit Bank:  £08.00
Top Ups Used: £00.00
//////\\\\\\//////\\\\\\//////
\\\\\\\\\\\////////\
Early Doors Notebook
////////////////\\\\
Thurs 30th May 2024
////////////////
Early Doors Experiment

Wannabe Brave                       £07.48

Dutch                               £04.16
Exmoor Forest (2nd)
Ballinsker
Steppenwolf (winner)

Dutch                               £03.42
Blenheim Star  (winner)
Medician Star
First Encounter (2nd)

Dutch                              -£03.00
Loyal Touch (2nd)
Ey Up Its The Boss (3rd)            £00.06

Raft Up                            -£03.00

Pilot Show                          £08.34




(NO Flibble)

Experiment Bankroll:                £25.82
Experiment Profit Bank              £22.00
/////////////////////////

Monthly Software Liabilities
ChatGPT 4.o (Ms Flibble)         -£18.98
Fairbot                          -£10.00

Total                            -£28.98

\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\/////////////
///////////////\\\\\\\\\\\\\

1st  (7) Wannabe Brave 9/4 F
2nd  (4) Daaris 10/1

1st  (2) Steppenwolf 13/2
2nd  (5) Exmoor Forest 6/1 2F
3rd  (4) Magic Dancer 10/1

1st  (6) Blenheim Star 7/2 F
2nd  (9) First Encounter 9/2 J2F
3rd  (7) They 15/2

1st  (8) Titian 11/1
2nd  (3) Loyal Touch 5/2 F
3rd  (9) Ey Up Its The Boss 11/2

1st  (6) Woodleigh 9/2
2nd  (7) La La Lucrative 15/8 F
3rd  (2) Raft Up 7/2 2F

1st  (2) Pilot Show 11/4 F
2nd  (11) Bells Of Stamford 14/1
3rd  (9) Getupearly 10/3 2F



///////\\\\\\/////\\\///\\//\/
Report askjack May 30, 2024 8:21 PM BST
20:55 Carlisle
Thu 30 May 1m3f Hcap

Profit
Bella Bluesky
10.5
£1.00
£9.50
Ref: 350264166131
Matched: 19:48 30-May-24

Flibbs opinion:

Summary:
Top Win Candidates: Sonning (IRE), Bella Bluesky
Strong Place Candidates: Vampire Slayer (IRE), Star Start (IRE)
Dark Horses: Hot Team (IRE), Kittykarma (IRE)

I refreshed the analysis because of Vampire Slayer steaming in.

Previously, she did not mention it being in the win or place opinions.

Last race of the day.

Epsom tomorrow!
Report askjack May 30, 2024 9:11 PM BST
//////\\\\\\//////\\\\\\//////         
Notebook Early Doors Experiment
Started: 8 May 2024
Profit Bank:  £08.00
Top Ups Used: £00.00
//////\\\\\\//////\\\\\\//////
\\\\\\\\\\\////////\
Early Doors Notebook
////////////////\\\\
Thurs 30th May 2024
////////////////
Early Doors Experiment

Wannabe Brave                       £07.48

Dutch                               £04.16
Exmoor Forest (2nd)
Ballinsker
Steppenwolf (winner)

Dutch                               £03.42
Blenheim Star  (winner)
Medician Star
First Encounter (2nd)

Dutch                              -£03.00
Loyal Touch (2nd)
Ey Up Its The Boss (3rd)            £00.06

Raft Up                            -£03.00

Pilot Show                          £08.34

Bella Bluesky                      -£01.00


(NO Flibble)

Experiment Bankroll:                £24.82
Experiment Profit Bank              £22.00
/////////////////////////

Monthly Software Liabilities
ChatGPT 4.o (Ms Flibble)         -£18.98
Fairbot                          -£10.00

Total                            -£28.98

\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\/////////////
///////////////\\\\\\\\\\\\\

1st  (7) Wannabe Brave 9/4 F
2nd  (4) Daaris 10/1

1st  (2) Steppenwolf 13/2
2nd  (5) Exmoor Forest 6/1 2F
3rd  (4) Magic Dancer 10/1

1st  (6) Blenheim Star 7/2 F
2nd  (9) First Encounter 9/2 J2F
3rd  (7) They 15/2

1st  (8) Titian 11/1
2nd  (3) Loyal Touch 5/2 F
3rd  (9) Ey Up Its The Boss 11/2

1st  (6) Woodleigh 9/2
2nd  (7) La La Lucrative 15/8 F
3rd  (2) Raft Up 7/2 2F

1st  (2) Pilot Show 11/4 F
2nd  (11) Bells Of Stamford 14/1
3rd  (9) Getupearly 10/3 2F

1st  (8) Hot Team 11/2
2nd  (6) Vampire Slayer 9/4 F



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