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askjack
30 May 24 09:30
Joined:
Date Joined: 22 Nov 08
| Topic/replies: 1,172 | Blogger: askjack's blog
Runners and Form Analysis with In-Play Data and Timeform Insights
Race Details:
Race: 14:20 Lingfield
Time: 14:20
Date: Thursday, 30 May
Location: Lingfield
Distance: 2 miles
Prize: £4,187
Surface: Turf
Going: Good to Firm
Runners: 9

Probable SP:

Wannabe Brave (4.0)
Abraaj (4.8)
Greek Giant (5.4)
African Star (8.2)
Kojin (10.5)
Doublethetrouble (13.0)
Daaris (19.5)
Dotties Star (28.0)
Ship To Shore (55.0)
Key Runners:

Wannabe Brave (Jockey: Oisin Murphy): Showing strong form, has good chances. Current SP: 4.0
Abraaj (Jockey: J Mitchell): Consistent performer, expected to do well. Current SP: 4.8
Greek Giant (Jockey: Rossa Ryan): Another strong contender with good recent form. Current SP: 5.4
Runner Analysis:
Wannabe Brave

Form: Consistently strong performances recently.
Analysis: With Oisin Murphy aboard, this runner is expected to perform well. Strong contender.
Abraaj

Form: Finished well in recent races, showing good form.
Analysis: Reliable performer and strong contender for the top spots.
Greek Giant

Form: Recent performances have been promising.
Analysis: With Rossa Ryan as the jockey, this horse has a solid chance of finishing in the top positions.
African Star

Form: Mixed results recently but has potential.
Analysis: Could surprise with a strong performance. Worth considering for place betting.
Kojin

Form: Recent performances indicate potential for improvement.
Analysis: Could be a strong place candidate if returning to form.
Doublethetrouble

Form: Recent form has been moderate.
Analysis: Needs to show improvement to be competitive in this race.
Daaris

Form: Mixed performances but has shown potential.
Analysis: Could surprise if conditions are favorable.
Dotties Star

Form: Recent performances have been below par.
Analysis: Needs significant improvement to be competitive.
Ship To Shore

Form: Long odds reflect recent poor form.
Analysis: Unlikely to feature unless showing dramatic improvement.
Summary:
Top Win Candidates: Wannabe Brave, Abraaj, Greek Giant
Strong Place Candidates: African Star, Kojin
Dark Horses: Daaris, Doublethetrouble
Disclaimer:
Note: Horse racing outcomes are inherently unpredictable, and actual results may vary. This analysis is based on available data and should be used as a guide rather than a definitive prediction.

Stewards' Inquiry:
Ms. Flibble (AKA ChatGPT 4.0) can occasionally miss the mark. Always verify critical racing opinions and data from multiple reliable sources.

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Replies: 17
By:
askjack
When: 30 May 24 09:32
//////\\\\\\//////\\\\\\//////         
Notebook Early Doors Experiment
Started: 8 May 2024
Profit Bank:  £08.00
Top Ups Used: £00.00
//////\\\\\\//////\\\\\\//////
\\\\\\\\\\\////////\
Early Doors Notebook
////////////////\\\\
Thurs 30th May 2024
////////////////



(NO Flibble)

Experiment Bankroll:                £08.34
Experiment Profit Bank              £22.00
/////////////////////////

Monthly Software Liabilities
ChatGPT 4.o (Ms Flibble)         -£18.98
Fairbot                          -£10.00

Total                            -£28.98

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By:
askjack
When: 30 May 24 09:44
Back (Bet For)
Odds
Stake
Profit
Wannabe Brave
4
£3.00
£9.00
Ref: 350211182997
Matched: 09:43 30-May-24
By:
askjack
When: 30 May 24 11:42
Summary
2-Runner Dutch Bet: Minimum odds to cover the tax are approximately 2.08.
3-Runner Dutch Bet: Minimum odds to cover the tax are approximately 3.12.
4-Runner Dutch Bet: Minimum odds to cover the tax are approximately 4.16.
The inconsistency in the previous explanation regarding the 3-runner Dutch bet was an error. The correct minimum odds for a 3-runner Dutch bet to cover the tax is approximately 3.12, not 3.1224.
E/W
2-Runner Each-Way Dutch Bet: Minimum odds for each outcome should be greater than 5.00.
3-Runner Each-Way Dutch Bet: Minimum odds for each outcome should be greater than 7.50.
4-Runner Each-Way Dutch Bet: Minimum odds for each outcome should be greater than 10.00.
These calculations ensure that your Dutch bets in the Each-Way market remain viable and profitable. Always consider adjusting these figures if there are variations in place terms or other specific conditions.
By:
askjack
When: 30 May 24 14:36
//////\\\\\\//////\\\\\\//////         
Notebook Early Doors Experiment
Started: 8 May 2024
Profit Bank:  £08.00
Top Ups Used: £00.00
//////\\\\\\//////\\\\\\//////
\\\\\\\\\\\////////\
Early Doors Notebook
////////////////\\\\
Thurs 30th May 2024
////////////////
Early Doors Experiment

Wannabe Brave                       £07.48


(NO Flibble)

Experiment Bankroll:                £15.84
Experiment Profit Bank              £22.00
/////////////////////////

Monthly Software Liabilities
ChatGPT 4.o (Ms Flibble)         -£18.98
Fairbot                          -£10.00

Total                            -£28.98

\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\/////////////
///////////////\\\\\\\\\\\\\

1st  (7) Wannabe Brave 9/4 F
2nd  (4) Daaris 10/1
3rd  (1) Greek Giant 5/1
By:
askjack
When: 30 May 24 14:51
Exmoor Forest
6
£0.43
£2.15
Ref: 350214808392
Matched: 10:35 30-May-24
Exmoor Forest
6
£0.83
£4.15
Ref: 350214808392
Matched: 10:35 30-May-24

Ballinsker
8
£0.82
£5.74
Ref: 350214809121
Matched: 10:35 30-May-24
Ballinsker
8.2
£0.12
£0.86
Ref: 350214809121
Matched: 10:35 30-May-24

Steppenwolf
9.4
£0.80
£6.72
By:
askjack
When: 30 May 24 15:11
//////\\\\\\//////\\\\\\//////         
Notebook Early Doors Experiment
Started: 8 May 2024
Profit Bank:  £08.00
Top Ups Used: £00.00
//////\\\\\\//////\\\\\\//////
\\\\\\\\\\\////////\
Early Doors Notebook
////////////////\\\\
Thurs 30th May 2024
////////////////
Early Doors Experiment

Wannabe Brave                       £07.48

Dutch                               £04.16
Exmoor Forest (2nd)
Ballinsker
Steppenwolf (winner)






(NO Flibble)

Experiment Bankroll:                £20.00
Experiment Profit Bank              £22.00
/////////////////////////

Monthly Software Liabilities
ChatGPT 4.o (Ms Flibble)         -£18.98
Fairbot                          -£10.00

Total                            -£28.98

\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\/////////////
///////////////\\\\\\\\\\\\\

1st  (7) Wannabe Brave 9/4 F
2nd  (4) Daaris 10/1

1st  (2) Steppenwolf 13/2
2nd  (5) Exmoor Forest 6/1 2F
3rd  (4) Magic Dancer 10/1
By:
askjack
When: 30 May 24 15:14
Blenheim Star
5.6
£1.20
£5.52
Ref: 350219389993
Matched: 11:55 30-May-24

Medician Star
5.4
£1.24
£5.46
Ref: 350219389992
Matched: 12:48 30-May-24

First Encounter
9
£0.56
£4.48
By:
askjack
When: 30 May 24 15:15
15:50 Ripon
Thu 30 May 1m Hcap
By:
askjack
When: 30 May 24 16:00
//////\\\\\\//////\\\\\\//////         
Notebook Early Doors Experiment
Started: 8 May 2024
Profit Bank:  £08.00
Top Ups Used: £00.00
//////\\\\\\//////\\\\\\//////
\\\\\\\\\\\////////\
Early Doors Notebook
////////////////\\\\
Thurs 30th May 2024
////////////////
Early Doors Experiment

Wannabe Brave                       £07.48

Dutch                               £04.16
Exmoor Forest (2nd)
Ballinsker
Steppenwolf (winner)

Dutch                               £03.42
Blenheim Star  (winner)
Medician Star
First Encounter (2nd)



(NO Flibble)

Experiment Bankroll:                £23.42
Experiment Profit Bank              £22.00
/////////////////////////

Monthly Software Liabilities
ChatGPT 4.o (Ms Flibble)         -£18.98
Fairbot                          -£10.00

Total                            -£28.98

\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\/////////////
///////////////\\\\\\\\\\\\\

1st  (7) Wannabe Brave 9/4 F
2nd  (4) Daaris 10/1

1st  (2) Steppenwolf 13/2
2nd  (5) Exmoor Forest 6/1 2F
3rd  (4) Magic Dancer 10/1

1st  (6) Blenheim Star 7/2 F
2nd  (9) First Encounter 9/2 J2F
3rd  (7) They 15/2
By:
askjack
When: 30 May 24 16:15
16:20 Ripon
Thu 30 May 1m2f Hcap

Loyal Touch
3.75
£3.00
£8.25

E/W Market
Ey Up Its The Boss
6.6
£0.54
Ref: 350240068521
Matched: 16:11 30-May-24
By:
askjack
When: 30 May 24 16:27
16:50 Ripon
Thu 30 May 6f Hcap

Raft Up
6.2
£3.00
£15.60
Ref: 350241543329
Matched: 16:26 30-May-24
By:
askjack
When: 30 May 24 16:38
//////\\\\\\//////\\\\\\//////         
Notebook Early Doors Experiment
Started: 8 May 2024
Profit Bank:  £08.00
Top Ups Used: £00.00
//////\\\\\\//////\\\\\\//////
\\\\\\\\\\\////////\
Early Doors Notebook
////////////////\\\\
Thurs 30th May 2024
////////////////
Early Doors Experiment

Wannabe Brave                       £07.48

Dutch                               £04.16
Exmoor Forest (2nd)
Ballinsker
Steppenwolf (winner)

Dutch                               £03.42
Blenheim Star  (winner)
Medician Star
First Encounter (2nd)

Dutch                              -£03.00
Loyal Touch (2nd)
Ey Up Its The Boss (3rd)            £00.06
(NO Flibble)

Experiment Bankroll:                £20.48
Experiment Profit Bank              £22.00
/////////////////////////

Monthly Software Liabilities
ChatGPT 4.o (Ms Flibble)         -£18.98
Fairbot                          -£10.00

Total                            -£28.98

\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\/////////////
///////////////\\\\\\\\\\\\\

1st  (7) Wannabe Brave 9/4 F
2nd  (4) Daaris 10/1

1st  (2) Steppenwolf 13/2
2nd  (5) Exmoor Forest 6/1 2F
3rd  (4) Magic Dancer 10/1

1st  (6) Blenheim Star 7/2 F
2nd  (9) First Encounter 9/2 J2F
3rd  (7) They 15/2

1st  (8) Titian 11/1
2nd  (3) Loyal Touch 5/2 F
3rd  (9) Ey Up Its The Boss 11/2
By:
askjack
When: 30 May 24 17:05
//////\\\\\\//////\\\\\\//////         
Notebook Early Doors Experiment
Started: 8 May 2024
Profit Bank:  £08.00
Top Ups Used: £00.00
//////\\\\\\//////\\\\\\//////
\\\\\\\\\\\////////\
Early Doors Notebook
////////////////\\\\
Thurs 30th May 2024
////////////////
Early Doors Experiment

Wannabe Brave                       £07.48

Dutch                               £04.16
Exmoor Forest (2nd)
Ballinsker
Steppenwolf (winner)

Dutch                               £03.42
Blenheim Star  (winner)
Medician Star
First Encounter (2nd)

Dutch                              -£03.00
Loyal Touch (2nd)
Ey Up Its The Boss (3rd)            £00.06

Raft Up                            -£03.00


(NO Flibble)

Experiment Bankroll:                £17.48
Experiment Profit Bank              £22.00
/////////////////////////

Monthly Software Liabilities
ChatGPT 4.o (Ms Flibble)         -£18.98
Fairbot                          -£10.00

Total                            -£28.98

\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\/////////////
///////////////\\\\\\\\\\\\\

1st  (7) Wannabe Brave 9/4 F
2nd  (4) Daaris 10/1

1st  (2) Steppenwolf 13/2
2nd  (5) Exmoor Forest 6/1 2F
3rd  (4) Magic Dancer 10/1

1st  (6) Blenheim Star 7/2 F
2nd  (9) First Encounter 9/2 J2F
3rd  (7) They 15/2

1st  (8) Titian 11/1
2nd  (3) Loyal Touch 5/2 F
3rd  (9) Ey Up Its The Boss 11/2

1st  (6) Woodleigh 9/2
2nd  (7) La La Lucrative 15/8 F
3rd  (2) Raft Up 7/2 2F

///////\\\\\\/////\\\///\\//\/

That is it for today.

I might bet in the evening races if something catches Flibbs eye ;)
By:
askjack
When: 30 May 24 19:25
19:40 Warwick
Thu 30 May 3m Hcap Chs

Pilot Show
4
£0.89
£2.67
Ref: 350260753660
Matched: 19:21 30-May-24
Pilot Show
4
£2.11
£6.33
Ref: 350260753660
Matched: 19:21 30-May-24

Racing Runners and Form Analysis of IRE and GB Racing with In-Play Data and Timeform Insights
Race Details:
Race: Bromwich Hardy Handicap Chase
Time: 19:40
Date: 30 May 2024
Location: Warwick
Distance: 3 miles
Prize: £6,000
Surface: Turf
Going: Good
Runners: 12

Probable SP:

Aviewtosea (IRE) - 5/1
Pilot Show (IRE) - 11/2
Kadex (FR) - 6/1
Presenting Jeremy (IRE) - 8/1
Dusautior - 7/2
Time For A Pint (IRE) - 9/2
Conceroe (IRE) - 7/1
Head On (IRE) - 12/1
Getupearly - 10/1
Flemen's Tipple (IRE) - 15/2
Bells of Stamford (IRE) - 20/1
Cobra Commander (IRE) - 16/1
Key Runners:

Aviewtosea (IRE) (Jockey: Kielan Woods): Dropped significantly in weights; needs better form. Current SP: 5/1
Pilot Show (IRE) (Jockey: James Bowen): Consistent placings, big player off 1 lb lower. Current SP: 11/2
Kadex (FR) (Jockey: Tom Cannon): Needs improvement; unreliable recent form. Current SP: 6/1
Likely Winners:
Pilot Show (IRE)

Form: Consistent placings post-breakthrough win.
Analysis: Encouraging recent effort; significant player.
Time For A Pint (IRE)

Form: Recent win over C&D.
Analysis: Strong last performance; shortlist material despite 10 lb rise.
Strong Place Candidates:
Kadex (FR)

Form: One win from 18 starts, struggling lately.
Analysis: Needs to improve based on recent poor form.
Dusautior

Form: Improved when upped in trip; recent win at Bangor.
Analysis: 4 lb rise fair; likely contender.
Dark Horses:
Head On (IRE)

Form: Runner-up after long absence; recent poor form.
Analysis: Needs significant improvement.
Getupearly

Form: Better than result on chasing debut.
Analysis: Potential if building on last effort.
Specific Horses for Bromwich Hardy Handicap Chase:
Aviewtosea (IRE): Needs better recent form.
Pilot Show (IRE): Consistent and encouraging recent performance.
Time For A Pint (IRE): Strong contender with recent C&D win.
Summary:
Top Win Candidates: Pilot Show (IRE), Time For A Pint (IRE)
Strong Place Candidates: Kadex (FR), Dusautior
Dark Horses: Head On (IRE), Getupearly
Draw and Pace Bias Insights:
Warwick: Typically favors horses with early speed. Inside draws can be advantageous, particularly in larger fields.
Disclaimer:
Note: Horse racing outcomes are inherently unpredictable, and actual results may vary. This analysis is based on available data and should be used as a guide rather than a definitive prediction.

Stewards' Inquiry:
Ms. Flibble (AKA ChatGPT 4.0) can occasionally miss the mark. Always verify critical racing opinions and data from multiple reliable sources. ALWAYS!
By:
askjack
When: 30 May 24 20:03
//////\\\\\\//////\\\\\\//////         
Notebook Early Doors Experiment
Started: 8 May 2024
Profit Bank:  £08.00
Top Ups Used: £00.00
//////\\\\\\//////\\\\\\//////
\\\\\\\\\\\////////\
Early Doors Notebook
////////////////\\\\
Thurs 30th May 2024
////////////////
Early Doors Experiment

Wannabe Brave                       £07.48

Dutch                               £04.16
Exmoor Forest (2nd)
Ballinsker
Steppenwolf (winner)

Dutch                               £03.42
Blenheim Star  (winner)
Medician Star
First Encounter (2nd)

Dutch                              -£03.00
Loyal Touch (2nd)
Ey Up Its The Boss (3rd)            £00.06

Raft Up                            -£03.00

Pilot Show                          £08.34




(NO Flibble)

Experiment Bankroll:                £25.82
Experiment Profit Bank              £22.00
/////////////////////////

Monthly Software Liabilities
ChatGPT 4.o (Ms Flibble)         -£18.98
Fairbot                          -£10.00

Total                            -£28.98

\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\/////////////
///////////////\\\\\\\\\\\\\

1st  (7) Wannabe Brave 9/4 F
2nd  (4) Daaris 10/1

1st  (2) Steppenwolf 13/2
2nd  (5) Exmoor Forest 6/1 2F
3rd  (4) Magic Dancer 10/1

1st  (6) Blenheim Star 7/2 F
2nd  (9) First Encounter 9/2 J2F
3rd  (7) They 15/2

1st  (8) Titian 11/1
2nd  (3) Loyal Touch 5/2 F
3rd  (9) Ey Up Its The Boss 11/2

1st  (6) Woodleigh 9/2
2nd  (7) La La Lucrative 15/8 F
3rd  (2) Raft Up 7/2 2F

1st  (2) Pilot Show 11/4 F
2nd  (11) Bells Of Stamford 14/1
3rd  (9) Getupearly 10/3 2F



///////\\\\\\/////\\\///\\//\/
By:
askjack
When: 30 May 24 20:21
20:55 Carlisle
Thu 30 May 1m3f Hcap

Profit
Bella Bluesky
10.5
£1.00
£9.50
Ref: 350264166131
Matched: 19:48 30-May-24

Flibbs opinion:

Summary:
Top Win Candidates: Sonning (IRE), Bella Bluesky
Strong Place Candidates: Vampire Slayer (IRE), Star Start (IRE)
Dark Horses: Hot Team (IRE), Kittykarma (IRE)

I refreshed the analysis because of Vampire Slayer steaming in.

Previously, she did not mention it being in the win or place opinions.

Last race of the day.

Epsom tomorrow!
By:
askjack
When: 30 May 24 21:11
//////\\\\\\//////\\\\\\//////         
Notebook Early Doors Experiment
Started: 8 May 2024
Profit Bank:  £08.00
Top Ups Used: £00.00
//////\\\\\\//////\\\\\\//////
\\\\\\\\\\\////////\
Early Doors Notebook
////////////////\\\\
Thurs 30th May 2024
////////////////
Early Doors Experiment

Wannabe Brave                       £07.48

Dutch                               £04.16
Exmoor Forest (2nd)
Ballinsker
Steppenwolf (winner)

Dutch                               £03.42
Blenheim Star  (winner)
Medician Star
First Encounter (2nd)

Dutch                              -£03.00
Loyal Touch (2nd)
Ey Up Its The Boss (3rd)            £00.06

Raft Up                            -£03.00

Pilot Show                          £08.34

Bella Bluesky                      -£01.00


(NO Flibble)

Experiment Bankroll:                £24.82
Experiment Profit Bank              £22.00
/////////////////////////

Monthly Software Liabilities
ChatGPT 4.o (Ms Flibble)         -£18.98
Fairbot                          -£10.00

Total                            -£28.98

\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\/////////////
///////////////\\\\\\\\\\\\\

1st  (7) Wannabe Brave 9/4 F
2nd  (4) Daaris 10/1

1st  (2) Steppenwolf 13/2
2nd  (5) Exmoor Forest 6/1 2F
3rd  (4) Magic Dancer 10/1

1st  (6) Blenheim Star 7/2 F
2nd  (9) First Encounter 9/2 J2F
3rd  (7) They 15/2

1st  (8) Titian 11/1
2nd  (3) Loyal Touch 5/2 F
3rd  (9) Ey Up Its The Boss 11/2

1st  (6) Woodleigh 9/2
2nd  (7) La La Lucrative 15/8 F
3rd  (2) Raft Up 7/2 2F

1st  (2) Pilot Show 11/4 F
2nd  (11) Bells Of Stamford 14/1
3rd  (9) Getupearly 10/3 2F

1st  (8) Hot Team 11/2
2nd  (6) Vampire Slayer 9/4 F



///////\\\\\\/////\\\///\\//\/
//////\\\\\\//////\\\\\\//////
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