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askjack
08 May 24 21:50
Joined:
Date Joined: 22 Nov 08
| Topic/replies: 1,172 | Blogger: askjack's blog
Based on the detailed information provided for the race and the runners, here's a strategy that includes a Dutch bet and other betting options:

Dutch Bet Selection:
Democracy Dilemma (Selection 2) - 5.5
Showed strong form last season and has performed well at this track.
Good recent run at Meydan and Jebel Ali adds to the credentials.
Clearpoint (Selection 3) - 8.4
Has dual AW wins and showed promise in recent turf outings.
Ran well at Lingfield and could be competitive in this field.
Michaela's Boy (Selection 7) - 8.6
Showed spark after a break at Musselburgh and now sports a tongue tie.
Could be well-handicapped and ready to contend here.
Bet Strategies:
Straight Win Bet:
Place a straight win bet on Democracy Dilemma. The horse has solid form and could capitalize on the return to handicaps.
Each Way (E/W) Bet:
Consider an each-way bet on Clearpoint. With recent form and a good run at Lingfield, this horse could be in the mix.
Outsider (DoB) Bet:
The outsider DoB (Draw or Die) pick for this race could be Vintage Clarets (Selection 5) at 12.0 odds.
This horse enjoyed success in 2023 and might have needed the recent run. The odds provide value for a speculative bet.
Summary:
Primary Picks for Dutch Bet: Democracy Dilemma, Clearpoint, Michaela's Boy
Straight Win Bet: Democracy Dilemma
Each Way (E/W) Bet: Clearpoint
Outsider (DoB) Bet: Vintage Clarets
Adjust your stakes based on your betting strategy and the odds at the time of placing your bets. Always gamble responsibly and consider the risks associated with betting on horse racing. Good luck with your wagers on this race!
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Report askjack May 8, 2024 10:09 PM BST
Early Doors Selections from Mrs Flibble

I'm using the Dutch win market and Outsider Bet: Vintage Clarets in the place market:

Back (Bet For)
Odds
Stake
Profit
Democracy Dilemma
6.40
£1.26
£6.80
Ref: 347854059737
Matched: 22:00 08-May-24

Manila Scouse
8.6
£1.00
£7.60
Ref: 347854059736
Matched: 22:00 08-May-24

Michaelas Boy
10.5
£1.00
£9.50
Ref: 347854059738
Matched: 22:00 08-May-24

Outsider (DoB) Bet: Vintage Clarets

Back (Bet For)
Odds
Stake
Profit
Vintage Clarets
2.84
£2.00
£3.68
Ref: 347854147709
Matched: 22:03 08-May-24
Report Regbutler May 8, 2024 10:17 PM BST
Thank you
Before taking all that in, I'd like to askjack where Mrs Flibbles has been since 22Nov08?
Report askjack May 8, 2024 10:45 PM BST
This is the Prompt used by ChatGPT 3 to generate Early Doors Selections from Mrs Flibble

Yeah, it depends on the Promp you use. I've experimented and this one seems to work for me.

//////////////// copy below

Please give your opinion: 3 picks to use in a Dutch bet and other bet strategies including straight win bet, e/w, and an outsider DoB that might suit this race:

1. Copy EVERYTHING from the Betfair win market race page starting from the tiny text that shows the number of runners down to the END of the Timeform 1-2-3 Comments

2. Highlight all instructions and Paste EVERYTHING

3. Hit enter and wait for The Mrs to do her stuff.

Please give your opinion: 3 picks to use in a Dutch bet and other bet strategies including straight win bet, e/w, and an outsider DoB that might suit this race:

/////////////// stop copying at line above

Including a copy of the prompt at the bottom makes copying and pasting for another race easy.

My apologies for failing to explain the process enough in yesterday's post.
Report askjack May 8, 2024 10:58 PM BST

May 8, 2024 -- 10:17PM, Regbutler wrote:


Thank youBefore taking all that in, I'd like to askjack where Mrs Flibbles has been since 22Nov08?


My lack of history?

I post in the USA Election Winner forum and MAGA loonies trolls can get very weird. So I deleted all my historical posts and settings to not available to the public.

Some of the old posts were very funny.

Nice spot, it always pays to get to know strangers' history.

Report Regbutler May 8, 2024 11:10 PM BST
Thanks for the reply, but I was just really commenting on that I had never seen your forum name before yet you've been on here since 2008...but not a regular horse racing forum poster I suggest?

Also.... Who the heck is Mrs Flibbles?

Looked like a good write up BTW if a bit wordy
Report askjack May 8, 2024 11:11 PM BST
Dammit, you meant where has Mrs Flibble been.

Probably still roaming time and space looking for hers/his/its subjects. After all, she still is The King of the Potato People
Report askjack May 8, 2024 11:13 PM BST
This page explains all: https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100072193227099
Report askjack May 8, 2024 11:23 PM BST
Red Dwarf!
Report askjack May 8, 2024 11:27 PM BST
I'll probably trade some on the Dutch bet if it turns out to be a hot one.

See you tomorrow unless I see you first :)
Report askjack May 9, 2024 8:08 AM BST
I'm not sure what to make of this. I tried to write a prompt that would get Mrs Flibble/Gpt 3 to analyze and assess the viability of using a DoB betting strategy based on the IP Hi/Lo (in-play high/low) and P/L (Profit/Loss) columns for the horse racing selections, let's analyze the data provided for each selection. Every horse's data was used, similar copy-and-paste actions as outlined above.

Prompt: Please Analyse the racing horse data and give your opinion on the viability of using a DoB (double or nothing) bet by focusing on the   IP Hi/Lo and P/L columns.

Data Analysis:
IP Hi/Lo (In-Play High/Low): This column indicates the highest and lowest odds traded in-play (during the race) on Betfair for each horse.
P/L (Profit/Loss): Indicates the amount of profit or loss based on the selected betting strategy (backing all selections).

Viability Assessment:
Let's examine the key metrics for each selection based on the IP Hi/Lo and P/L columns:

Roman Dragon (Selection 1):
IP Hi/Lo: Not available (0/0)
P/L: £23
Lack of in-play data, but profitable based on P/L.

Democracy Dilemma (Selection 2):
IP Hi/Lo: 220/9
P/L: £16
High in-play odds of 220 but still profitable based on P/L.

Manila Scouse (Selection 7):
IP Hi/Lo: 8.2/6
P/L: £6
Moderate in-play fluctuation (Hi/Lo) with lower profit based on P/L.

Clearpoint (Selection 3):
IP Hi/Lo: 10/1000
P/L: £50
Significant in-play fluctuation (Hi/Lo) but highly profitable based on P/L.

Michaelas Boy (Selection 6):
IP Hi/Lo: 12/8
P/L: £8
Moderate in-play fluctuation (Hi/Lo) with relatively lower profit based on P/L.

Conclusion:

In-Play Fluctuations

(IP Hi/Lo): The IP Hi/Lo values show how much the odds fluctuated during the race, which can be useful for understanding the volatility and potential risk.
Profit/Loss (P/L): The P/L column reflects the financial outcome of backing all selections, regardless of in-play fluctuations.

Viability Considerations: Clearpoint (Selection 3): Despite significant in-play fluctuation (Hi/Lo), the high P/L indicates a profitable outcome.

Democracy Dilemma (Selection 2) and Michaelas Boy (Selection 6): Both selections had moderate in-play fluctuation (Hi/Lo) and relatively lower profits based on P/L.

Summary:
Using the IP Hi/Lo and P/L columns provides insights into both the volatility during the race (in-play fluctuations) and the overall profitability of each selection based on the selected betting strategy. It's important to consider both factors when evaluating the viability of a betting approach, aiming to maximize profit while managing risk associated with in-play odds movements.
...........
I'm not at all sure this prompt would be profitable but at least I finally know WTF IP Hi/Lo means.

Back pain and lower leg cramps kept me awake all night.

It's **** getting old :(
Report brians May 9, 2024 1:41 PM BST
Boom ! On democracy , thanks for the tip.
Report askjack May 9, 2024 1:56 PM BST
Yep I got both bets.

Paid £3.77 for Dutch and £3.15 for the place.

Stake £5.26

Already looking forward to doing another Mrs Flibbles AI Bot Selections - Early doors tomorrow
Report askjack May 9, 2024 2:03 PM BST
Brian that's good news. I'll inform Mrs Fibbs of our joint success.
Report askjack May 9, 2024 2:06 PM BST
After racing you could maybe test out the bot yourself. The prompt should work on any chat AI system.
Report brians May 9, 2024 2:22 PM BST
If I understood your bot suggestion I would ! I am 74 and bots are beyond my understanding ! See you tomorrow and thanks for translating.
Report Hayden May 9, 2024 2:37 PM BST
Askjack , apologies for negative remarks on yesterdays thread but i didn't read the whole thread and subsequently didn't realize it was a BOT.

I'm a big fan / user of BOT's so best of luck with it all and will follow progress albeit without investing cash   Happy
Report askjack May 9, 2024 2:37 PM BST
Mrs Flibble's comments on our sucsess:
I'm glad you found the previous suggestions helpful! It's great to hear that some of the picks were on target.
If you're looking to refine your strategy for future races, here are a few additional thoughts:

Track Record Analysis: Dive deeper into the past performances of each horse, especially focusing on recent form, class of races competed in, jockey/trainer statistics, and suitability of race conditions (distance, ground, etc.).

Value Betting: Assess the odds offered on each selection and identify potential value bets where the implied probability is lower than your estimated chance of winning.

Race Conditions: Consider how race conditions (e.g., distance, ground, course) might impact the performance of each horse. Some horses excel under specific conditions, so match these with the current race setup.

Risk Management: Review your risk management approach, including bet sizing and diversification. Ensure you're not overexposing yourself to any single outcome or race.

Continuous Learning: Stay curious and continue learning about horse racing strategies and betting techniques. Explore different angles, such as pace analysis, trainer patterns, or pedigree insights.
Adaptability: Be open to adapting your strategy based on ongoing feedback and results. Flexibility is key in the dynamic world of horse racing betting.

By refining these aspects and staying disciplined with your betting approach, you'll be well-positioned to make informed decisions and improve your overall betting performance. If you have specific races or selections you'd like to discuss further, feel free to share more details!
Report askjack May 9, 2024 2:42 PM BST
She's a darling is Mrs Flibbs.

I sent her a "virtual beer" {_}]
Report askjack May 9, 2024 2:49 PM BST

May 9, 2024 -- 2:22PM, brians wrote:


If I understood your bot suggestion I would ! I am 74 and bots are beyond my understanding ! See you tomorrow and thanks for translating.


I too was born in the "Fab Fifties".

No worries.

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