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17 Mar 24
09:56
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25 Oct 09
A cracking article in todays racing post
take my advice and do NOT lay them.
have a good day glad to say i am looking forward to a nice leg of lamb today.
Ronnie.
take my advice and do NOT lay them.
have a good day glad to say i am looking forward to a nice leg of lamb today.
Ronnie.
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'The 33-1 may not last long' - our experts find the early value after tipping 16-1 Ballyburn and 12-1 Teahupoo last year
The curtain may have only just come down on the Cheltenham Festival but there is plenty of value to be had in looking ahead to next year's meeting. David Jennings and Robbie Wilders made the most of the ante-post markets to snag winners Teahupoo (12-1) and Ballyburn (16-1) at double figures and seek to repeat the feat as our experts pick out their best bets for the 2025 festival. . .
Jonbon
Champion Chase, 10-1 with Betfair
Nico de Boinville was adamant Jonbon could beat El Fabiolo in this year's Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase when appearing on the Racing Post's Cheltenham Festival preview show.
"To be the best chaser in the country you have to be a phenomenal jumper and I don't think El Fabiolo is a phenomenal jumper," the rider said.
Those words proved prophetic but, sadly for De Boinville, Jonbon missed the Grade 1 contest owing to the cloud over Nicky Henderson's string.
However, Jonbon will still be just nine next March and I have the distinct impression his best day remains ahead of him. He possesses an abundance of speed, class and jumping ability, and 10-1 looks a big price.
The three ahead of him in the ante-post betting – El Fabiolo, Gaelic Warrior and the sidelined ten-year-old Energumene – make no appeal at current odds.
Richard Birch, tipster
Golden Ace
Mares' Hurdle, 16-1 with Paddy Power
I thought the Jeremy Scott-trained mare was one of the more impressive winners of the week in the Mares' Novice Hurdle. She ran away from the highly regarded Brighterdaysahead up the hill, and although she was receiving 5lb from her rival, she shouldn't be six points bigger in the market for next year's Mares' Hurdle.
Lossiemouth is the short-price favourite for the race but they've surely got to go for the Champion Hurdle with her, and these current novices look a smart bunch.
James Hill, tipster
Firefox
Arkle, 14-1 with Sky Bet
Ballyburn is as short as 7-2 with some firms for the 2025 Arkle but it is hard to envisage him dropping to 2m next season and I would much prefer to back the one horse who has beaten him at 14-1.
Firefox was Ballyburn's Fairyhouse conqueror and it was only after watching the replay of the Supreme that I realised just how well he ran. He endured a nightmare passage early in the home straight but somehow managed to snatch third despite the traffic congestion.
He looks every inch a chaser and I fully expect him to do even better over fences. Slade Steel and Sir Gino look to be his two chief threats at this stage, but 14-1 is generous enough and a small bit of value a year out from the event.
David Jennings, deputy Ireland editor
Firefox and Jack Kennedy are impressive winners of the 2m maiden hurdle at Fairyhouse
Firefox: 14-1 for next year's Arkle with Sky Bet
Credit: Patrick McCann
Romeo Coolio
Supreme Novices' Hurdle, 9-1 with Ladbrokes
Romeo Coolio was an alarming drifter for the Champion Bumper but he belied market vibes with a battling second place to Jasmin De Vaux.
Connections were apparently worried he wouldn't be streetwise enough to deal with the boggy conditions but he oozed class with the way he travelled and on better ground he probably would have won.
He will be older and tougher next year and, while he'll no doubt have the option of the Gallagher given his pedigree, he is such a good traveller that it's easy to see him looking like a two-miler in the early stages of next season.
Paul Kealy, tipster
Monty's Star
Gold Cup, 33-1 with bet365
It might seem mad to think the 2025 Gold Cup will not go to Willie Mullins, given he has dual winner Galopin Des Champs and impressive Brown Advisory winner Fact To File in his yard, but the Henry de Bromhead-trained Monty's Star is being underrated among the competition.
De Bromhead is particularly adept with slow-burners and Monty's Star looks exactly the right type to grow into a top staying chaser. He is clearly not as good as Fact To File right now, but he is lightly raced and has the scope to keep developing.
The Brown Advisory was arguably just the second big test of his life and he can hardly be said to have failed, with Fact To File in the mood he was. If he gets a chance in a Grade 1 race without Fact To File before the season is out, the 33-1 may not last long.
Keith Melrose, betting editor
Better Days Ahead is led into the winner's enclosure at Cheltenham after success in the Martin Pipe
Better Days Ahead: winner of the often informative Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle
Credit: GROSSICK RACING
Better Days Ahead
Brown Advisory, 14-1 bet365
The Martin Pipe has a history of producing top-class staying chasers and Better Days Ahead looks a cracking bet to take next year's Brown Advisory at 14-1.
It looked a strong Martin Pipe this season with the top six all 10-1 or lower and the second and third were both well backed, as was Better Days Ahead.
He's proven his stamina by winning a 2m7½f maiden hurdle at Fairyhouse this season and he should hopefully avoid Ballyburn, who I'd imagine will be aimed at one of the shorter races.
Tom Park, tipster
Mercurey
Brown Advisory, 33-1 with Paddy Power
While Ballyburn was undoubtedly the star of the show in this year's Gallagher Novices' Hurdle, I thought Mercurey emerged with plenty of credit in fourth.
He became outpaced as the field quickened on the bend for home and got in close to the last when it was all over, but the way he lolloped along in the lead for most of the journey was much more in the style of a horse suited to staying chases than it was sit-and-sprint novice hurdles.
He recorded a Racing Post Rating of 146 on his penultimate start at Punchestown, when he galloped his rivals into submission, and he will surely be seen to best effect at three miles over the bigger obstacles next year.
Although not quite as good yet, he reminds me a little of Rich and Susannah Ricci's 2021 Brown Advisory winner, Monkfish, and there's every chance he could emulate him as he's a lightly raced horse and improvement looks likely.
Maddy Playle, tipster
Gaelic Warrior
Ryanair Chase, 10-1 with Coral
It is quite clear now that three trainers stand above everyone else when it comes to preparing horses for the Cheltenham Festival. They are Willie Mullins, of course, Henry de Bromhead and Dan Skelton.
I don't see the point in backing a horse trained by anyone other than those three at this early stage and none of Skelton's four winners appeal as the types to return and win again.
De Bromhead will get Slade Steel in the right race, but it might be more difficult to guess where he is going than it is the Mullins-trained Gaelic Warrior.
The Gold Cup is out for him as he is freegoing and there are two horses with better claims in his own stable in Galopin Des Champs and Fact To File.
Therefore, it's a straight pick between the Champion Chase and the Ryanair for Gaelic Warrior and I have a feeling it might end up being the Ryanair.
Mullins won't want to give up the Champion Chase dream with El Fabiolo just yet and he also has Energumene as a possible runner in that race if he can get him back.
Gaelic Warrior's main aim for the season might turn out to be the King George at Kempton and, if he runs well in that, he will almost certainly be seen as the ideal Mullins-trained candidate for the Ryanair over slightly shorter.
Graeme Rodway, tipster
Gerri Colombe: winner at Aintree
Gerri Colombe: runner-up in this year's Gold Cup to Galopin Des Champs
Gerri Colombe
Gold Cup, 25-1 with Betfair
Quite rightly Galopin Des Champs got all the plaudits for winning back-to-back Gold Cups and he is going to be the one to beat again in 2025.
However, don't sleep on how well the runner-up Gerri Colombe ran because he was continually interfered with by the loose horse and lost momentum at the second-last as a result.
He wasn't losing ground on Galopin Des Champs at the line and I've long felt Gerri Colombe is at his best on quicker ground than he faced this week.
If he gets his conditions next year, don't be surprised if he turns the tables. At the very least, the 25-1 is twice as big as it should be.
Tom Segal, Pricewise
Jalon D'Oudairies
Gallagher Novices' Hurdle, 10-1 with Sky Bet
Between them, Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott were responsible for the first seven horses in the Champion Bumper.
Supplemented by other winners from the domestic bumper scene, this group will provide multiple options for the top two Irish stables in next season's major novice races. That's before factoring in the annual influx from France and fresh recruits from the point-to-point circuit recruits to swell the ranks.
Predicting how all things will pan out over the next 12 months is hazardous. Still, Jalon D'Oudairies, third behind the Mullins-trained Jasmin De Vaux and Cullentra stablemate Romeo Coolio on Wednesday, could return as a leading candidate for the Gallagher Novices' Hurdle.
Given Gigginstown's usual lukewarm attitude to bumpers, his appearance this week marked him out as unusual. A Lingstown maiden winner for the influential Donnchadh Doyle and a dual bumper scorer, he left a distinct impression that longer distances will bring out the best in him over hurdles.
Alan Sweetman, reporter
Teahupoo
Stayers' Hurdle, 4-1 with bet365
Taking 4-1 about a horse in a race a year away wouldn't often be recommended, but I find it hard to see Teahupoo going off anything close to that price to retain his Stayers' Hurdle crown in 12 months.
Scan the market and you'll soon realise it's made up of horses he thrashed on Thursday and others who won't run in what has become in recent years the weakest of the four championship races.
Indeed, Teahupoo is the star the division has needed and he now looks set to dominate. He should still be at the peak of his powers as an eight-year-old next year, when I imagine Gordon Elliott will change nothing and send him straight to Cheltenham after the Hatton's Grace.
The only cause for concern would be if crack French hurdler Theleme came over, but I was impressed with the way Teahupoo travelled and put the race to bed quickly this week and, given he went off just 5-4, he is likely to shorten significantly.
Nick Watts, Ante-Post Angles
Teahupoo (Jack Kennedy) winning the Stayers' Hurdle
Teahupoo: 4-1 to win his second Stayers' Hurdle next season
Credit: Patrick McCann
Cuthbert Dibble
Stayers' Hurdle, 33-1 with Paddy Power
The staying hurdle division is weak enough aside from Teahupoo, and Cuthbert Dibble rates an up-and-comer from the handicap ranks who could make the step up.
His good third in the Pertemps Final on Thursday when he was backed off the boards suggests his improvement has not finished yet after smooth successes at Chepstow and Haydock.
He looks all stamina, and while novice chasing may be this unexposed three-miler's preferred route next season, perhaps staying hurdles provide a better chance for him to make hay, particularly in Britain.
Robbie Wilders, tipster
The curtain may have only just come down on the Cheltenham Festival but there is plenty of value to be had in looking ahead to next year's meeting. David Jennings and Robbie Wilders made the most of the ante-post markets to snag winners Teahupoo (12-1) and Ballyburn (16-1) at double figures and seek to repeat the feat as our experts pick out their best bets for the 2025 festival. . .
Jonbon
Champion Chase, 10-1 with Betfair
Nico de Boinville was adamant Jonbon could beat El Fabiolo in this year's Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase when appearing on the Racing Post's Cheltenham Festival preview show.
"To be the best chaser in the country you have to be a phenomenal jumper and I don't think El Fabiolo is a phenomenal jumper," the rider said.
Those words proved prophetic but, sadly for De Boinville, Jonbon missed the Grade 1 contest owing to the cloud over Nicky Henderson's string.
However, Jonbon will still be just nine next March and I have the distinct impression his best day remains ahead of him. He possesses an abundance of speed, class and jumping ability, and 10-1 looks a big price.
The three ahead of him in the ante-post betting – El Fabiolo, Gaelic Warrior and the sidelined ten-year-old Energumene – make no appeal at current odds.
Richard Birch, tipster
Golden Ace
Mares' Hurdle, 16-1 with Paddy Power
I thought the Jeremy Scott-trained mare was one of the more impressive winners of the week in the Mares' Novice Hurdle. She ran away from the highly regarded Brighterdaysahead up the hill, and although she was receiving 5lb from her rival, she shouldn't be six points bigger in the market for next year's Mares' Hurdle.
Lossiemouth is the short-price favourite for the race but they've surely got to go for the Champion Hurdle with her, and these current novices look a smart bunch.
James Hill, tipster
Firefox
Arkle, 14-1 with Sky Bet
Ballyburn is as short as 7-2 with some firms for the 2025 Arkle but it is hard to envisage him dropping to 2m next season and I would much prefer to back the one horse who has beaten him at 14-1.
Firefox was Ballyburn's Fairyhouse conqueror and it was only after watching the replay of the Supreme that I realised just how well he ran. He endured a nightmare passage early in the home straight but somehow managed to snatch third despite the traffic congestion.
He looks every inch a chaser and I fully expect him to do even better over fences. Slade Steel and Sir Gino look to be his two chief threats at this stage, but 14-1 is generous enough and a small bit of value a year out from the event.
David Jennings, deputy Ireland editor
Firefox and Jack Kennedy are impressive winners of the 2m maiden hurdle at Fairyhouse
Firefox: 14-1 for next year's Arkle with Sky Bet
Credit: Patrick McCann
Romeo Coolio
Supreme Novices' Hurdle, 9-1 with Ladbrokes
Romeo Coolio was an alarming drifter for the Champion Bumper but he belied market vibes with a battling second place to Jasmin De Vaux.
Connections were apparently worried he wouldn't be streetwise enough to deal with the boggy conditions but he oozed class with the way he travelled and on better ground he probably would have won.
He will be older and tougher next year and, while he'll no doubt have the option of the Gallagher given his pedigree, he is such a good traveller that it's easy to see him looking like a two-miler in the early stages of next season.
Paul Kealy, tipster
Monty's Star
Gold Cup, 33-1 with bet365
It might seem mad to think the 2025 Gold Cup will not go to Willie Mullins, given he has dual winner Galopin Des Champs and impressive Brown Advisory winner Fact To File in his yard, but the Henry de Bromhead-trained Monty's Star is being underrated among the competition.
De Bromhead is particularly adept with slow-burners and Monty's Star looks exactly the right type to grow into a top staying chaser. He is clearly not as good as Fact To File right now, but he is lightly raced and has the scope to keep developing.
The Brown Advisory was arguably just the second big test of his life and he can hardly be said to have failed, with Fact To File in the mood he was. If he gets a chance in a Grade 1 race without Fact To File before the season is out, the 33-1 may not last long.
Keith Melrose, betting editor
Better Days Ahead is led into the winner's enclosure at Cheltenham after success in the Martin Pipe
Better Days Ahead: winner of the often informative Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle
Credit: GROSSICK RACING
Better Days Ahead
Brown Advisory, 14-1 bet365
The Martin Pipe has a history of producing top-class staying chasers and Better Days Ahead looks a cracking bet to take next year's Brown Advisory at 14-1.
It looked a strong Martin Pipe this season with the top six all 10-1 or lower and the second and third were both well backed, as was Better Days Ahead.
He's proven his stamina by winning a 2m7½f maiden hurdle at Fairyhouse this season and he should hopefully avoid Ballyburn, who I'd imagine will be aimed at one of the shorter races.
Tom Park, tipster
Mercurey
Brown Advisory, 33-1 with Paddy Power
While Ballyburn was undoubtedly the star of the show in this year's Gallagher Novices' Hurdle, I thought Mercurey emerged with plenty of credit in fourth.
He became outpaced as the field quickened on the bend for home and got in close to the last when it was all over, but the way he lolloped along in the lead for most of the journey was much more in the style of a horse suited to staying chases than it was sit-and-sprint novice hurdles.
He recorded a Racing Post Rating of 146 on his penultimate start at Punchestown, when he galloped his rivals into submission, and he will surely be seen to best effect at three miles over the bigger obstacles next year.
Although not quite as good yet, he reminds me a little of Rich and Susannah Ricci's 2021 Brown Advisory winner, Monkfish, and there's every chance he could emulate him as he's a lightly raced horse and improvement looks likely.
Maddy Playle, tipster
Gaelic Warrior
Ryanair Chase, 10-1 with Coral
It is quite clear now that three trainers stand above everyone else when it comes to preparing horses for the Cheltenham Festival. They are Willie Mullins, of course, Henry de Bromhead and Dan Skelton.
I don't see the point in backing a horse trained by anyone other than those three at this early stage and none of Skelton's four winners appeal as the types to return and win again.
De Bromhead will get Slade Steel in the right race, but it might be more difficult to guess where he is going than it is the Mullins-trained Gaelic Warrior.
The Gold Cup is out for him as he is freegoing and there are two horses with better claims in his own stable in Galopin Des Champs and Fact To File.
Therefore, it's a straight pick between the Champion Chase and the Ryanair for Gaelic Warrior and I have a feeling it might end up being the Ryanair.
Mullins won't want to give up the Champion Chase dream with El Fabiolo just yet and he also has Energumene as a possible runner in that race if he can get him back.
Gaelic Warrior's main aim for the season might turn out to be the King George at Kempton and, if he runs well in that, he will almost certainly be seen as the ideal Mullins-trained candidate for the Ryanair over slightly shorter.
Graeme Rodway, tipster
Gerri Colombe: winner at Aintree
Gerri Colombe: runner-up in this year's Gold Cup to Galopin Des Champs
Gerri Colombe
Gold Cup, 25-1 with Betfair
Quite rightly Galopin Des Champs got all the plaudits for winning back-to-back Gold Cups and he is going to be the one to beat again in 2025.
However, don't sleep on how well the runner-up Gerri Colombe ran because he was continually interfered with by the loose horse and lost momentum at the second-last as a result.
He wasn't losing ground on Galopin Des Champs at the line and I've long felt Gerri Colombe is at his best on quicker ground than he faced this week.
If he gets his conditions next year, don't be surprised if he turns the tables. At the very least, the 25-1 is twice as big as it should be.
Tom Segal, Pricewise
Jalon D'Oudairies
Gallagher Novices' Hurdle, 10-1 with Sky Bet
Between them, Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott were responsible for the first seven horses in the Champion Bumper.
Supplemented by other winners from the domestic bumper scene, this group will provide multiple options for the top two Irish stables in next season's major novice races. That's before factoring in the annual influx from France and fresh recruits from the point-to-point circuit recruits to swell the ranks.
Predicting how all things will pan out over the next 12 months is hazardous. Still, Jalon D'Oudairies, third behind the Mullins-trained Jasmin De Vaux and Cullentra stablemate Romeo Coolio on Wednesday, could return as a leading candidate for the Gallagher Novices' Hurdle.
Given Gigginstown's usual lukewarm attitude to bumpers, his appearance this week marked him out as unusual. A Lingstown maiden winner for the influential Donnchadh Doyle and a dual bumper scorer, he left a distinct impression that longer distances will bring out the best in him over hurdles.
Alan Sweetman, reporter
Teahupoo
Stayers' Hurdle, 4-1 with bet365
Taking 4-1 about a horse in a race a year away wouldn't often be recommended, but I find it hard to see Teahupoo going off anything close to that price to retain his Stayers' Hurdle crown in 12 months.
Scan the market and you'll soon realise it's made up of horses he thrashed on Thursday and others who won't run in what has become in recent years the weakest of the four championship races.
Indeed, Teahupoo is the star the division has needed and he now looks set to dominate. He should still be at the peak of his powers as an eight-year-old next year, when I imagine Gordon Elliott will change nothing and send him straight to Cheltenham after the Hatton's Grace.
The only cause for concern would be if crack French hurdler Theleme came over, but I was impressed with the way Teahupoo travelled and put the race to bed quickly this week and, given he went off just 5-4, he is likely to shorten significantly.
Nick Watts, Ante-Post Angles
Teahupoo (Jack Kennedy) winning the Stayers' Hurdle
Teahupoo: 4-1 to win his second Stayers' Hurdle next season
Credit: Patrick McCann
Cuthbert Dibble
Stayers' Hurdle, 33-1 with Paddy Power
The staying hurdle division is weak enough aside from Teahupoo, and Cuthbert Dibble rates an up-and-comer from the handicap ranks who could make the step up.
His good third in the Pertemps Final on Thursday when he was backed off the boards suggests his improvement has not finished yet after smooth successes at Chepstow and Haydock.
He looks all stamina, and while novice chasing may be this unexposed three-miler's preferred route next season, perhaps staying hurdles provide a better chance for him to make hay, particularly in Britain.
Robbie Wilders, tipster
Only clowns bet ante post a year ahead. 4/1 is a terrible price to even get to the race fit. Did you know 90% of ante post bets placed 6-12 months ahead go straight into the bookers coffers , as most of them don't even make the race. From a friend who was an odds compiler for Ladbrokes until 4 years ago
crowds will be down again next year if there are a lot of short price fav
" Our experts find the early value after tipping 16-1 Ballyburn and 12-1 Teahupoo last year".
If you backed every expert AP tip last year would you be up ?
It's like a tipster boasting about a 25/1 winner but conveniently ignoring 30 losers on the trot before that .
If you backed every expert AP tip last year would you be up ?
It's like a tipster boasting about a 25/1 winner but conveniently ignoring 30 losers on the trot before that .
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