AvB 1520 Bangor

Happens a lot in these matches.

If you do the A v B market on a regular basis there's a fair chance you'll end up in a padded cell at some stage.

I do; and more than likely - lost this one!

Worst thing about it is if both horses concerned finish well down the field, e.g. 12th and 13th.

You`ll wait for half an hour plus for bet to be eventually settled and that`s me being kind!

Honestly, I'm not fussed about settlement time - I'm betting no more than 5% of my bank per day, I don't care if the winnings (if any!) come back now or tomorrow.

.... Murder when they are both well out the frame and tv cameras just show first 3 home.

You have a better chance of showing a long term profit with A v B than trying to pick winners of each race.

Too many races now to go through the form of every horse in every single race. Impossible.

Best method is going through all the form of the two runners concerned and reach your conclusion before betting market is formed.

If one just bets the favourite out the two horses concerned each time, you will indeed end up in a straight jacket as SB states, lol.

What is your strategy longbridge?

Timeform ratings, collateral form when I can find it, form on going and distance.  Just about makes money (which is true of all my strategies - I just make enough to keep BF in commisson and me not having to deposit or withdraw).

Spot on Mac.

Waiting for the head on to see if your one walked the last furlong a tad quicker than the other one. It was soul destroying moment as I thought to myself, has my punting really come to this?

longbridge

I think to " get it " you have to use a more severe example to appreciate that they're 3 different markets when a selection criteria can be so different.

Take an 8 horse maiden hurdle , front 3 in the betting are 5/2 , 3/1 and 7/2 , the 5/2 and 7/2 chances are exposed horses whilst the 3/1 shot is a debutante.
So the A vs B is between the 3/1 and 7/2 shots.
It's perfectly understandable for A to be shorter in the win market although the caveat is the potential inaccuracy of the market as the horse has never seen a racecourse , so that said it wouldn't be the biggest surprise if B was equal or even a tad shorter.
As for the place market i'd be certain at least 90% of the time B would be shorter due partly to the above and being far more certain that B would run to its form vs an unknown quantity in horse A.
Leaving the match betting odds and tbh it'd be no surprise which horse was fav due to the reasons outlined and also taking into a/c the liquidity is somewhat patchy in this event with gaps in the market meaning much is down to personal opinion as it almost turns into your normal pool betting as opposed to any market professionalism.

I can practically hear anyone reading this asking wtf has the above to do with the race in question , answer is it doesn't but it's a severe example of why you can't automatically expect these markets to align into a matrix form with one another.

The two horses were of similar profiles and fairly exposed today which made it a fine line choosing which market should favour one horse over the other so little to choose aside from the winner which was more lightly raced and a bit less exposed for what was required.

On a personal note if a gun held to my head and asked to pick a winner of a race vs a placed horse i'd say over 90% of the time they'd be two different horses , such is the different criteria required for a different market whatever the odds may be.


Apologies for the ramble , good luck all   

Soul destroying indeed Slippy!

Not that it would happen Hayden, coughcough, but it would be easier to manipulate the outcome of an A v B rather than the outright winner.

.... but the depth of bets in A v B are peanuts in comparison.

Thanks Hayden for the full and thoughtful reply.

I get Win and Place markets being adrift - a horse that wins if he jumps round but jumps badly is unlikely to get across the finish line without being first, so the Place price is likely to be shorter than one might expect by blindly looking at the Win price, as the probabilities are close to the same?

But if a pair of horses are both clearly differentiated in the Win and Place markets, then I can only see that the AvB should be the other way around if the horses were so far down the field that the AvB was about (eg) 6th vs 7th place - but in both my case and your theoretical ones, we're looking at horses at the top of the list in the betting?

I clearly need to think harder about my modelling.

"the Place price is likely to be shorter than one might expect "

longer, sorry.

Yes mate , your example is such a fine margin as the win prices were next door to each other and opinion in the A vs B market with far less solid liquidity is susceptible to quirkier graphs.

Agree with the longer prices horses being paired together as the book value compared to the front line market is chalk and cheese , always remembering that theoretically it takes the same to move a horse from 5/4 to Evens as it does 33/1 into 14/1 , around 4%.

Have to admit it's not a market i look too closely at tbh as the liquidity with no price gaps never seems to be there for any appealing amounts , not when i've looked anyway although the last time was a while ago.

Best of luck with it anyway mate   

thanks Hayden - I'll need it!