2/5 Constitution Hill on here to win the Champion Hurdle. Would to have a bad day to get beat imo, h

Not sure what Impossible is smoking. But if CH runs & State Man is sorter than 3.23(wheres that price from) 9/4 .Its time 4 me to pack the game in .

If geoff is correct about 1/4 stew and you want the 1.4 exchange price as of now then effectively you're backing 1.12 that it'll make the post time.

Pays your money takes your chance   

For a teddy bear like yourself,stewarty...Rangers HT/FT v Livingston on Saturday..4/9 Sportsbook....

Upcoming races / Prize Money

Champion Hurdle £253,000
Saudi Red Sea Handicap 15f - £1.25m

Man if he was mine I’d be saying Allah Akbar and Inshalah and Habibi and selling out asap

Last season Get Shirty picked up £200k for finishing third and Nate the Grate £62k for 5th and I’d like to think CH would  have the measure of both in a flat race.

It's another world ELG and we can't even compete with inflationary prize money never mind at that level , the time is fast approaching if not arrived when so called " prestige " means jack **** and the irresistible rewards become the No1 priority , however wealthy the owners may be.

more utter nonsense from the scottish DG.

Wouldn't be surprised if constitution hill doesn't run. Nicky not happy as he's only 99% right.

I'd also be surprised slicks but there's still a price you need to be comfortable with and also to alleviate from the stress of dreading seeing that headline reading " fav out of big race " one morning eating your cornflakes.

Chappie on 'Barstewards' says he heard that CH has 'had a wind-op'
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NSjtWjBX-XM

@10.30 mins in

Hendo had a wind-op? It would not surprise me. He did sound a bit croaky and rough.

Surely that should be made public if it is true we the Punters have a right to know.

Dunno Acey. Just thought I'd mention it.
had to rewind it - double-take like

'acey', it's nrnb maybe not with his sponsor.

Champion Hurdle entries are being pulled out regularly, even though Oddschecker still quote Vauban and Lossiemouth. One of the guru's may be able to post the smallest field numerically ever for the race; we could be close this year.

Dont think we'll be matching the 3 runners in 1932. In more recent times, 7 runners in Lanzarote's Champion was matched last year.
Could be another post war low this year..

Thank you fairweather

At present, last year's prices were very similar to this year's and the CSF paid 4/6. Might be the way forward imv..

What we thinking 4 or 5 horse race this year

Maybe but first seven get a prize.

stew

When looking at a f/c in a race of that shape should check the w/o fav price just in case , sometimes the discrepancy in price isn't worth the extra risk really as the f/c is effectively a double but the w/o fav price a single.

Agree to a certain extent Hayden but no surprise if the Fav goes off at 1/4 now even 2/9. If that is the case perhaps the CSF might only pay  2/5. I was just giving an alternative because it is my belief now that the FAV will be shorter than 1/3.

The Champion hurdle is usually run at a very fast pace,if a horse happens to fumble just one hurdle it will be very difficult to get back into the race.CH is no Annie Power ,and Nick is no Ruby,you all have being warned by the Brass.

** Also. let's say the FAV goes off at 2/7. What price would you get the 2nd FAV without the FAV? That said, I know where you are coming from.

On top of that brass the Fav didn't scope well after LTO and misses it's prep-race.

Funnily enough Hendo said they were not going to scope him again until AFTER his next piece of fast work. Must be confident he is OK

stew

You'll never know unless you have a look on the day mate , it's another punter offering odds don't forget not a bookmaker and the special markets sometimes resemble pool betting rather than matrix odds.

Just suggesting you check out both and take a view which gives best value for money , nothing to do whether you think Chill is a certainly or not it's about the related price.

brassneck08 Feb 24 12:43Joined: 13 Feb 03 | Topic/replies: 19,641 | Blogger: brassneck's blog
The Champion hurdle is usually run at a very fast pace,if a horse happens to fumble just one hurdle it will be very difficult to get back into the race.CH is no Annie Power ,

Correct Brass. Your not going to see C.Hill throw the race away @ the final hurdle @ the festival.

State Man will be 1/5 without CH.

Can readily see CH 1/4   / 2/9  if less than 8 runners if another rag tuns up to make it 8 yer more likely to get 1/3    /   2/7.

Any idea what the price was last year geoff ?

No doubt it should be 1/5 and expect it to be around that but won't stop me looking just in case , life can be full of surprises.

The suggestion to stew was a general one as well really , should always check the comparison be it Champion Hurdle or Plumpton.

If you mean State Man without CH last year Hayden .No i dont.   @ a guess would have been more 2/5 as Vauban was a reasonable contender .This year daylight is the best option to give State Man a run without C.H.

It should really be shorter w/o fav than Chill is to win the race as there seems to be more chance of State Man winning the race than it does any of the other beating State Man , such is the shape of the race.

Yes agree

Hayden08 Feb 24 13:31Joined: 15 Jan 02 | Topic/replies: 12,716 | Blogger: Hayden's blog
Any idea what the price was last year geoff ?

No doubt it should be 1/5 and expect it to be around that but won't stop me looking just in case , life can be full of surprises.

The suggestion to stew was a general one as well really , should always check the comparison be it Champion Hurdle or Plumpton.


Did you mean a box of chocolates Hayden?

Something far more valuable than chocolates stew on occasions especially in both unmanaged sports markets and markets than don't draw so much attention.

The exchange motto is a simple one , if you don't ask you don't get   

Have you 'won' the requisite £3000 pot to put on the great horse yet?

his mobilty scooter is on Gumtree.

4/11 State Man   w/o C.Hill    NRNB. Is a steal with Bet 364 plus 1.

and is a far better bet than C.Hill 2/5 done yer dough if he doesnt show.

Sir Tom found another chink in the hoss' armour apparently.

SM lovely horse but no world beater imo. The harder he tries to win 2nd place in danger imo. Of course it depends what runs maybe 4 or 5 runners.

Do agree with geoff in that 2nd vs 3rd looks more daylight than 2nd vs 1st potentially when you look at the field but that said Howard does make a fair point as we've seen it so often when trying to win costs at the end of the race.

My mind is to wait until post time anyway then decide what's the best option , if any.

much invested Geoff?

£138 .so far. if anybody wants to put up 2/5 again  i will take it.

Take C.H out the equation theres naff all to challenge State Man even if he puts it up to C.H. Canna get a bet on with 364 plus 1. all accounts up the swanee years ago.

Everything in the race should/will be ridden to beat State Man ( not CH ) but I hope you collect geoff.

Dont think they will howard. If they have any sense will do a Zanahiyr and ride for £48k for 3rd place. If you ride to try & beat State Man yer gunna end up chucking 3rd and even 4th away. Will be 2 seperate races within a race imo.

Wouldnt suprise me if Elliot reverted back to hurdles with Zanahiyr for this prospect .On his run against Bob Olinger gives him as good a chance as any to pick up 3rd and hes done it for last 2 years.

Certainly appears to be a match, and not really a close one.

The way i see it, forget AP or trying to 2nd guess tactics. Back CH on the day with what you can afford to lose without losing sleep, watch him win on TV, go collect and have a few drinks to celebrate. That's the theory anyway

How can the others be ridden to beat SM when they aren't going to do anything to effect it, SM will lead followed by CH and then the rest most probably at a steady pace.

The also rans will be hoping to pick up the pieces should something go wrong with the front two they won't be trying to effect the race themselves because it will likely cost them their own chance.

The deal here is that "the rest" will be viewing SM in the exact same way as they view CH, none of them are there to try and get second, they are all there in order to try and get third.

I think the jockeys of the rest bar the fav and 2nd fav will play it by sight eg if either CH and SM are infront 2 out they'd be looking for a best 3rd place. Similarly, if SM is past by CH off the last bend; I do not think SM will make the running or be ridden from the front or infront of CH.

If the real CH turns up the rest will be running for places no matter how much stronger SM is this year as intimated by his trainer; CH will just breeze past SM off the final bend as if SM is standing still.

I would guess SM will try to lead at a slow pace though something else will likely go on. If nothing goes a decent CH might well lead a long way out.

I think most of us are reading it very similar with S.M leading @ a steady pace with a sprint from 2nd last. He was held up last year and gifted C.H 3 or 4 easy lengths so wont repeat that .and setting a very strong gallop hes in danger of just setting it up for C.H with potential to lose 2nd cant see him doing that either.

Seems to be a fair bit of momentum behind SM. Think we're going to get a big price about CH.

Sorry what’s going on here with this thread someone wanting to stir up a decent price for him perchance?

Pegasus over hurdles but with an off day the second fav is tremndous. Notihng else within 2 streets of these two.

Think everyone agrees with that Eric tbh without much exception , the debate is more about the price and whether to get involved now or wait until the day ( like myself ) and also whether the preferred option is the f/cast or w/o fav market.


Good luck to all whatever you decide   

well aye nico's gona sit behind state man going a crawl?

walofs

Chappie on 'Barstewards' says he heard that CH has 'had a wind-op'
[b]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NSjtWjBX-XM[/b]

@10.30 mins in


Lee said he'd heard all wasn't right with CH

7/4 now!!

For once I didn't carry through with my policy of laying any Cheltenham odds on shot at Xmas. I just thought it was throwing money away as Nicky only had one target and he looked unbeatable. I would be a layer of all of the Henderson runners now.

Stew you could could stop a train FFS

I have bored you with this many times but every horse is evens to run and evens not to run up until the 5 day stage. So many things can go wrong at home and then there is the increasing reluctance to take on anything rated 5lb clear.

Ante post betting.  Absolute madness.

Unless you are a layer LH.

stewarty b 31 Jan 24 23:10 
Just get one at 1/2ish to get evens the double....if you can. 1/3 with most most books to win and my plan FWIW is the single only.

redded up or more pretence?

7/2..has the jock DG topped up?

and was he on tortured soul again last night ? think he's out of funds 'til the next "cheque"

awol

3/1.geton.geton

You couldn't make it up.

stewarty b 31 Jan 24 23:10 
1/3 with most most books to win and my plan FWIW is the single only. I'm looking to win 1k so it's a case of 3k to win the   1 k .

Was it Kicking King who looked certain not to go in the Gold Cup then did and won, having insoired all sorts of market chicanery and profiteering?
Imagine the furore on here if the Hill did the same.
The foaming at the mouth and impotent rage would be something to behold!

And yes sageform 28 Feb 24 14:13  , you are of course quite right.  My funds don;t run to such extravagance. 

CH's poor gallop was on a public racecourse and well publicised. Hardly the same. The previous cited examples were when horses were originally ruled out way ahead of the race, and presumably recovered faster than expected. Insiders knew, and took advantage. Some people obviously either witnessed CH trailing home on the racecourse gallop, or heard/got informed about it before it became common knowledge, and filled their boots.

If anyone wants to play in AP markets, then the risks are there for all to see. There'll always be the chance that someone gets material information before you do.

Hayden01 Feb 24 13:46Joined: 15 Jan 02 | Topic/replies: 12,873 | Blogger: Hayden's blog
If geoff is correct about 1/4 stew and you want the 1.4 exchange price as of now then effectively you're backing 1.12 that it'll make the post time.
Pays your money takes your chance   Happy


Always thought the only way to ascertain whether an ante post bet is worth the bother is to class it as a double , make post time x win the race.
Would anyone ever want to take 1.12 a horse to make post time 6 weeks before the race ( especially form that stable ) just to nick the perception of a slightly improved price 

Only cost £1 to win 4 on CH 2 weeks ago Loyal Honcho. Now you could have £1 on at 3.2 and green out.

You surely mean 4 on to win 1?

stewarty b 31 Jan 24 23:10 
1/3 with most most books to win and my plan FWIW is the single only. I'm looking to win 1k so it's a case of 3k to win the 1k .

the jock DG could stiffen potted meat imo.

No I mean laying at 1/4 or 1.25. Liability £1, profit £3.92 if it is beaten or does not run.

Nicky pulled up in the 13.42

The only ones of his to run OK were Spring Note and Jango Baie. 9 pulled up in 14 days.

stewarty b 04 Mar 24 15:23
managed to get 3k on at 1.28,great start to my cheltenham this year,work cut out now.

Copy and pastie broken

'stewarty b', I hope you refrained from indulging. Expensive otherwise.

Marine National also out of the Arkle now. He was second fav to CH after last years festival. Anti post really is a mugs game. That is 2 out of the first 3 races on Tuesday where a strong fav is a non runner and it is far from certain that Ballyburn will run in the Supreme either.

Barstewards' boys said all weren't right with CH a month ago.
spot on as it goes

its a mugs game if you are backing short prices ante post sage ! risk and reward !

True Foyles but I will stick with my policy of laying anything for Cheltenham below 2/1 before Xmas. It has served me well. Newmill was my best ever as 3 horses traded below 2/1 for the Champion Chase and none of them won. I just need El Fabiolo to be turned over this year.

good luck sageform , not a layer but your theory is sound risk and reward in reverse  again lay the shorties ante post

Sounds a good sensible approach that Sage , good luck next week   

I used to love Cheltenham.  Nowadays I don't care if I see it live ( on tv ) or not.  I tape it and watch what seems worth seeing later.  Too many unplayable handicaps over the too long four days and far too much fluff, froth and woke bowlucks on the Chamberlin programme.  And there is hardly any value to be had anyway.
For those who care big Head features on Martin's cooking show this coming Saturday morning.  Yet another tape job.

Stewarty B

I think you should send a crate of champagne or a few bottles of red to Nicky,he saved you a fortune mate.

Agree Honcho. Best thing about Cheltenham is Donny is close. My fav race is always the Champion hurdle pity we don't see the GOAT.

the festival still a buzz for me , the best horses running ,the betting opportunitys, even in the handicaps  we know they are all trying, bookies concessions, the craic etc ,ill be at home watching the action in comfort a decent betting tank and a fair few ante post bets to look forward to drink and grub at hand  not long to go now and prob more drama in the next few day.........contenders are you ready ...let the games begin!

they arent half biggin this fact or file up ! tony mullins saying its 2stone in hand in the brown advisery ........gonna look for something to take it on at a decent price if possible .

It will do well to jump better than Monty's Star .

The Irish have good reason to think that the best Irish horse will win nearly every novice race but Stay Away Fay ran well against experienced horses at Cheltenham recently so he will be hard to beat.

stewyb scene on beechy hed.

So it was No.11 then…Covid19.

Ffs